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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Feb-2011
21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government

Web Log - February, 2011

21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government

Son of Libya's leader Gaddafi gives a harsh, rambling speech on television.

Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government

On Saturday, Libya's armed forced pursued a violent crackdown on unarmed demonstrators in eastern portion of Libya, especially in Benghazi, Bayda and Tobruk. Long convoys of military vehicles fired on demonstrators with high powered weapons.

Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, speaking to Libya on Sunday

Saif al-Islam Qaddafi, speaking to Libya on Sunday

Al-Jazeera reports: "Further reports suggest the 500,000-strong Tuareg tribe in south Libya has heeded the call from the million-strong Warfala tribe to join the uprising. Protesters in Ghat and Ubary, home to Libyan Tuareg clans are reportedly attacking government buildings and police stations."

On Sunday, the bloodbath spread to the capital city, Tripoli, where the army fired on thousands of anti-government protesters. However, another report indicates that fighting has stopped in the east in Benghazi, because the Tripoli army has been driven back by the Benghazi army.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new Mideast war, refighting the war between Arabs and Jews that followed the 1948 partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. None of the uprisings we've seen so far -- in Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain -- have seemed likely to trigger a regional war, but the Libya uprising appears to be the most dangerous so far, and threatens to pit the eastern "Egyptian" portion of Libya versus the western "African" portion of Libya, which means that it could spread to neighboring countries.

Saif El Islam Gaddafi, the son of Libya's leader Muammar Gaddafi, gave a 30 minute televised speech to Libyans. His speech was rambling and harsh, and was widely ridiculed by commentators, although there's no way of knowing whether some "silent majority" were pleased with it.

The following are translated snippets from the Al-Jazeera live blog:

"Citizens tried to attack the army and they were in a situation that was difficult. The army was not used to dealing with riots."
"Libyan citizens died and this was a tragedy."
"There is a plot against Libya. People want to create a government in Benghazi and others want to have an Islamic emirate in Bayda. All these [people] have their own plots. Of course Arab media hyped this. The fault of the Libyan media is that it did not cover this.
Libya is not like Egypt, it is tribes and clans, it is not a society with parties. Everyone knows their duties and this may cause civil wars.
Libya is not Tunisia and Egypt. Libya has oil - that has united the whole of Libya.
"I have to be honest with you. We are all armed, even the thugs and the unemployed. At this moment in time, tanks are driven about with civilians. In Bayda you have machine huns right in the middle of the city. Many arms have been stolen.
"No one will come to Libya or do any business with Libya.
"We will call for new media laws, civil rights, lift the stupid punishments, we will have a constitution... We will tomorrow create a new Libya. We can agree on a new national anthem, new flag, new Libya. Or be prepared for civil war. Forget about oil.
"The country will be divided like North and South Korea, we will see each other through a fence. You will wait in line for months for a visa.
"The Libyans who live in Europe and USA, their children go to school and they want you to fight. They are comfortable. They then want to come and rule us and Libya. They want us to kill each other then come, like in Iraq."

During the course of the speech, which I heard live on al-Jazeera, he blamed the BBC, Al-Jazeera, the US, the Europeans, the Arab League, and even drug dealers. He repeatedly said that Libya was not like Tunisia or Egypt. He threatened civil war and starvation. He said that tribal wars may bring Libya back to "the civil war of 1937." I cannot find any reference to this war. It's possible that there was a translation error, or it may be that 38 year old Gaddafi is like many people and has no idea of any history prior to his birth.

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

Libya, showing the three historic divisions: Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica

His logic was that the country's well-being depended on oil income. He said that the oil was not in the east or the west, but in the middle, and the unrest will cause the oil exports to be cut off, causing people in the east and the west to starve.

There may be some truth to this. Reuters reports that the leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern Libya, Shaikh Faraj al Zuway, threatened to cut oil exports to Western countries within 24 hours unless authorities stopped what he called the "oppression of protesters."

Commentators are predicting further massacres in the next couple of days in Libya, and the continued export of Libyan oil is in question.

An analysis of the Libyan situation requires additional information about the tribal dynamics of the country, something about which I have limited information. If you're familiar with the situation in Libya, and particularly if you've lived in Libya, then I would welcome your comments, directed to me in private comments or in the public forum on my web site.

Finally, here's a neat Reuters graphic:

Major Arab state hotspots

Major Arab state hotspots

This shows all the Arab countries that experienced uprisings and unrest since the beginning of the year.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Feb-2011) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Feb-2011 21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Feb-2011
21-Feb-11 News -- Libya's bloodbath spreads to Tripoli as tribal leaders turn against government