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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Apr-2010
19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast

Web Log - April, 2010

19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast

Israelis fear Scud missiles in Lebanon, and Iran's nuclear development.

Stories of Hizbollah receiving Scud missiles raises Mideast tensions

Since the death of Yasser Arafat in 2004, there have been three wars in the Mideast: Israelis vs Hizbollah in Lebanon in 2006, Palestinian Fatah vs Hamas in Gaza in 2008, and Israelis vs Hamas in Gaza in 2009. It's possible that a new war is approaching.

All three of these wars have ended, but not definitively. Each war was left in a kind of limbo, where both sides agreed to stop shooting at each other for a little while.

Thus, threats of a fourth war, this summer, are not exactly a far-fetched thought.

The thoughts of war are being triggered by a report by Israeli intelligence that Syria is supplying long-range Scud ballistic missiles to Hizbollah in Lebanon.

During the 2006 war between Israel and Hizbollah, Hizbollah launched missiles at Israel, but they weren't long range enough to reach Tel Aviv or Jerusalem. The Scud missiles would have that capability.

The result is that Israel has sent a secret warning to the Syrians that if Hizbollah launches missile attacks on Israel, then Israel will launch retaliation against Syria itself, according to the London Times. An Israeli minister, speaking off the record, says, "We’ll return Syria to the Stone Age by crippling its power stations, ports, fuel storage and every bit of strategic infrastructure if Hezbollah dare to launch ballistic missiles against us."

These words may seem a bit apocalyptic, but this is exactly the kind of attack that Israel launched on Lebanon in the 2006 war with Hizbollah.

In other words, if Syria is playing the game Let's You and Him Fight, trying to provoke a war between Israel versus Hizbollah in Lebanon, then Israel is saying that Syria will be in the fight this time.

On the other hand, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem is saying that Syria has NOT supplied Scud missiles to Hizbollah. Lebanon's Daily Star quotes him as saying, "There is no smuggling of missiles and basically the whole story is fabricated by Israel."

Overlaying this entire discussion is the continuing threat of nuclear weapons development in Iran, and the concern that Israel may decide to attack an Iranian nuclear facility.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Lebanon, Syria and Iran are all in generational Awakening eras, and the people in these countries are quite resistant to another war.

Israel, on the other hand, is in a generational Crisis era, and its people feel very anxious and threatened by Hizbollah and Iran.

We've already seen what can happen by reviewing the summer 2006 Israeli/Hizbollah war in Lebanon. Israel, in a generational Crisis era, panicked and fought the war in a "hot" fashion, with maximum force. Hizbollah warriors, in a generational Awakening era in Lebanon, fought the war in a "cool" fashion, launching missiles and returning home to the arms of their wives. (See: "Israel/Lebanon war forces Muslims to choose," and "How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah.")

The Lebanese people were greatly shocked by what they considered to be Israel's overreaction in the 2006 war. Recall that the war was triggered when Hizbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers on the border between Lebanon and Israel. Israel's response was completely panic-driven. Israel went to war in four hours, with no plan, no objective, and no idea what was going on.

Israel learned a lot of lessons from that war, but it does not mean that there won't be another war. It only means that if Israel decides to go to war again, it will be with a clear plan and set of objectives.

Thus, providing Scud missiles to Hizbollah, or even just THREATENING to do so, is like waving a red towel in front of a bull. As the Jerusalem Post puts it, Israel and its enemies rely on a precarious equilibrium which permits both sides to demonstrate just enough deterrence without provoking a war. The addition of Scud missiles distrubs that precarious equilibrium.

Additional Links

In Thailand, the red-shirted demonstrators may soon have to face their political opposition, the yellow-shirted demonstrations. Straits Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Apr-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Apr-2010 19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast

Stories of Hizbollah receiving Scud missiles raises Mideast tensions

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Apr-2010
19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast