26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war? - 26-May-2010 - Generational Dynamics

Tuesday's major development is that North Korea cut all ties with South Korea. The statement is the response to Monday's televised speech by South Korean president Lee Myung-bak, outlining retaliation for the North's sinking of the Cheonan warship. I described that speech in detail yesterday.

The following are portions of the statement issued by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), as quoted by Reuters:

"The Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea, accordingly, formally declares that from now on it will put into force the resolute measures to totally freeze the inter-Korean relations, totally abrogate the agreement on non-aggression between the north and the south and completely halt the inter-Korean cooperation.

In this connection, the following measures will be taken at the first phase:

1. All relations with the puppet authorities will be severed.

2. There will be neither dialogue nor contact between the authorities during (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak's tenure of office.

3. The work of the Panmunjom Red Cross liaison representatives will be completely suspended.

4. All communication links between the north and the south will be cut off.

5. The Consultative Office for North-South Economic Cooperation in the Kaesong Industrial Zone will be frozen and dismantled and all the personnel concerned of the south side will be expelled without delay.

6. We will start all-out counterattack against the puppet group's 'psychological warfare against the north.'

7. The passage of South Korean ships and airliners through the territorial waters and air of our side will be totally banned.

8. All the issues arising in the inter-Korean relations will be handled under a wartime law.

There is no need to show any mercy or patience for such confrontation maniacs, sycophants and traitors and wicked warmongers as the (South Korean President) Lee Myung Bak group."

So far this is all rhetoric. However, there is some ambiguity about what is meant by "counterattack" with respect to the South's "psychological warfare." As we reported yesterday, there was a threat on Monday to shoot to destroy the South's loudspeakers, and it's not clear whether that threat has been rescinded.

However, it may also be that some actual war preparations are being taken. The Chosun news agency reports that Kim Jong-il has used a secret communication network to order the entire army to prepare for war, and that the North should "achieve the reunification of the fatherland by all means" since it failed during the 1950s Korean War.

(The secret communication network is something I hadn't heard of before, but it seems like something directly out of George Orwell's "1984." Apparently there are speakers in everyone's home connected by wire to Pyongyang. Kim can broadcast to these speakers information or orders that he doesn't want the outside world to know about.)

The order to prepare for war was obtained by defectors through unnamed sources in the North, but it hasn't been confirmed. But if the North is truly preparing for war, that's a very ominous sign.

Will there be a war?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the wrong question to ask. North and South Korea are in generational Crisis eras, and there's a clear fault line with enormous anger and hostility across it. There WILL be a war, with almost mathematical certainty, so the correct question is whether the current crisis will lead to an immediate war.

I was surprised to hear former Ambassador John Bolton on television say that he considers it very unlikely that there'll be a war. Bolton has always taken a very hardline towards Iran, China and North Korea, and he did so again. But he scoffed at the possibility that Kim Jong-il will start a war, saying that Kim's threats are empty. "Next he'll say that you'll see a 'sea of fire' across the Korean peninsula. He's got a series of these things."

A web site reader forwarded to me a message he'd received from his friend who works in South Korea: "It is kind of a strange situation over here. The people I work with don't seem to concern themselves with these matters. Just this morning President Lee addressed the ROK [Republic of Korea or South Korea] via live tv broadcast and after I finished reading the English transcript I went ahead and asked a few of my co-workers what they thought of the speech. No one had watched it and no one seemed to think much of it. All they said was 'this sort of thing happens often and nothing will come of it.'"

This reminds me that most Northerners were completely surprised in 1861 when the American Civil War started, even though the South had threatened it many times. Even so, they didn't take the war seriously until several months later, when the bloody Battle of Bull Run shocked them into understanding that a real war was going on. (Paragraph added on 26-May)

An analysis entitled "How likely is a war between North and South Korea?" appearing in the Guardian, calls the threats and counter-threats saber rattling, and adds that "both sides have sent clear signals they would refrain from initiating any attack." But the reasons given in the analysis for the attack being unlikely are not convincing.

One reason is that "the North Korean army is in no shape to fight against a well-trained, well-equipped modern army from the South, backed by 29,000 US troops" and that soldiers have "little to eat." But they are not reasons for avoiding war; these are reasons for pursuing war.

The North Korean army has a million men. They could swarm across the demilitarized zone and be in Seoul in a few hours, and they could be motivated by the promise of free food in Seoul. Given a choice between going on for months and years with little food for himself and his family, versus going to war to solve all his problems, it's clear what choice a soldier will make. This is particularly true of a generational Crisis era, when there is little fear of war, because there's no memory of the preceding crisis war.

Another reason given by the article is that China "will want to keep its wayward neighbour in check." But Kim Jong-il has repeatedly humiliated China through his belligerence -- testing nuclear weapons, sinking the Cheonan, for example. It may be that China will want to keep Kim in check, but there's absolutely no reason to believe that China can succeed.

In a generational Crisis era, wars are not fought for rational reasons. Yesterday I posted the six most prominent theories about why the North Koreans sank the Cheonan, and today I'm posting the reasons why the North won't want a war. But this is all rationalized nonsense.

North Korea is a starving country, and the situation get worse every month. North Korea is completely isolated and cut off from the rest of the world, so they have little idea what's going on. North Korea is very paranoid, so the little information they get can be interpreted as a cause for war.

It's not surprising that Ambassador Bolton and the South Koreans don't think that there'll be any war. They assume that the North Koreans will continue to act as they always have in the past, forgetting that generational changes have occurred, putting younger people in charge, and the economic situation has substantially worsened.

At some point, maybe tomorrow, maybe next month, maybe next year, the North Koreans are going to panic, and they'll decide that their million man army, underfed and underequipped as it is, is still large enough to overwhelm the South Korean and American defenders. They will be deluding themselves, but that's the stuff of history.

Additional links

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a blunt warning to Spain to implement harsh budget cuts and transform the country's labor market. EU Observer

The government of Italy has already approved massive spending cuts, to take effect next year. Public sector workers and pensions will be especially hard hit, resulting in protests from labor unions. BBC

Austerity drives are taking place in one country after another in Europe, reflecting a huge change in public attitude that something must be done to avoid Greece's path. However, economists are warning that these austerity drives will harm Europe's economy. NY Times

A Syrian-backed terrorist group loaded up a donkey with explosives and detonated the donkey near the Gaza border. There were no human casualties but --- poor donkey! Jerusalem Post

President Obama will send up to 1200 additional National Guard troop to patrol the border with Mexico. LA Times

Talks in Beijing between the US and China have brought forth no agreements on North Korea or currency. The Hindu

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-May-2010
26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war?

North Korea responds to South's president's speech

Will there be a war?

Additional links

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-May-2010 26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war?

North Korea responds to South's president's speech

Will there be a war?

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-May-2010
26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war?