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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 28-May-2010
28-May-10 News -- Tempers flare on Korean peninsula

Web Log - May, 2010

28-May-10 News -- Tempers flare on Korean peninsula

Terrorists bomb a concert crowd in southern Russia

Terrorist bomb in southern Russia kills people at concert

A bomb exploded among a crowd waiting to enter a theatre in Stavropol in Russia on Wednesday evening. Seven people died and more than 40 were injured, according to Ria Novosti.

The bomb was a homemade device, with TNT packed into a juice container, so that it was not detected prior to the explosion.

Stavropol is just north of Russia's Caucasus provinces of Chechnya and Dagestan, where there has been a great deal of ethnic and terrorist violence. Stavropol itself has been relatively free of violence, so this bombing apparently represents an expansion and deepening of terrorist violence in Caucasus.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Caucasus region is one of the most dangerous in the world because it's deep into a generational Crisis era, and because it's been the site, over the centuries, of numerous ethnic and religious wars between the Orthodox Christian civilization and the Muslim civilization.

According to Russian Television, Nikolay Petrov from the Carnegie Moscow Center says that what is going on now is not only an escalation of terrorist attacks in the region, but an expansion of the region where previous attacks have taken place, and that terrorism may be spreading throughout the region.

Tempers flare in North and South Korea

Tensions continue to mount on the Korean peninsula, as each side continues to take steps that are confrontational to the other side.

North Korea said it would "completely nullify" inter-Korean agreements designed to prevent military confrontations, according to JoongAng. These pacts were signed in the past decade to avoid misunderstandings that might lead to military clashes.

These measures include cutting off a naval hot line between the two capitals. This phone line was installed to prevent a repeat of deadly naval skirmishes that happened in 1999 and 2002, according to the NY Times.

In addition, North Korea warned that if South Korean ships intrude into North Korean seas, it will launch "a prompt physical strike."

These threats came on the same day that the South Korean navy conducted a large anti-submarine drill in the waters separating the North and South.

On the same day, a large rally in Seoul demanded revenge and retaliation for the sinking, on March 26, of the South's warship Cheonan, killing 46, by a North Korean torpedo. There were thousands of demonstrators, most of them elderly survivors of the 1950s Korean war, according to VOA.

At the same time, Japan's Yomiuri news service is reporting that the Japanese parliament is imposing its own sanctions on North Korea. In particular, the Japan Coast Guard will begin inspecting all North Korean cargo vessels arriving in Japan. These sanctions will directly affect the 600,000 Koreans living in Japan, especially the "pro-Pyongyang" General Association of Korean Residents.

There are now many, many ways for a war to start between North and South Korea -- many more ways than existed only a few weeks ago. The simplest would be a miscalculation or misunderstanding arising from some line being crossed somewhere, and with the "shoot first and talk later" attitude increasingly being adopted by both sides, such an event could quickly spiral out of control.

'Freedom Flotilla' of humanitarian aid heads for Gaza

A monstrous political publicity stunt will come to a head on Friday, when a "Freedom Flotilla" of 8 ships carrying some 700 political activists and 10,000 tons of aid and construction materials will approach the Gaza Strip from Turkey and European ports.

Israel has vowed to blockade the flotilla, preventing the ships from reaching Gaza, according to CS Monitor.

Turkey has demanded that Israel permit the flotilla to reach Gaza, according to the Palestinian Imemc news service.

The Israelis say that the aid will reach Gaza, according to Haaretz, but the flotilla will be required to land at the Israeli port of Ashdod first, so that the cargo can be inspected first.

Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post reports that a "counter PR stunt" will be launched by a group protesting Hamas's terror record.

It sounds like it will be a lot of fun, with a good time to be had by all.

But a UPI analysis points out that this is just one more step deepening the split between former allies Turkey and Israel, which is consistent with trends that I've described before.

Additional links

Local elections will be held all across South Korea on June 2. The results of these elections will provide some indication of who the people believe is at fault for handling the Cheonan incident, and whether there is a widespread desire for revenge. Asia Sentinel

For those wondering how a new Korean War might unfold, here are the specs for CONPLAN 8022, developed when Donald Rumsfeld was Secretary of Defense. Pajamas Media

The Korean War began 60 years ago, on June 25, 1950. This brief history tells why it's "the war that never ends." Asia Times

China's huge real estate bubble has caused millions of people to be routed from their homes by wealthy land developers who appropriate the land, demolish the homes that are on it, and construct new buildings. But now the peasants are fighting back. NY Times

A government-created baby boom in Germany has failed to materialize, as the country becomes increasingly gray. Spiegel

Under a secret directive signed last September by Gen. David H. Petraeus, the US is vastly expanding the use of Special Operations troops throughout Mideast, particularly directed against Iran. NY Times

US and EU are oceans apart on fiscal policy. In particular, the Europeans want to cut budgets, while the US would like Europe to provide more stimulus to their economies. Spiegel

Tens of thousands of French workers took to the streets on Thursday to protest gradually raising the retirement age from 60. Telegraph

Rock star M.I.A. (Maya Arulpragasam) is a very hot chick and a very controversial artist, because she is a Sri Lankan Tamil, and she used her fame to support the Tamil Tigers during the civil war that ended last year. NY Times

Exercising the throat muscles can help relieve sleep apnea. NY Times

How Tetris conquered the world. Telegraph

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-May-10 News -- Tempers flare on Korean peninsula thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-May-2010) Permanent Link
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