1-Sep-10 News -- Amsterdam arrests highlight Yemen confusion - 1-Sep-2010 - Generational Dynamics

My web site software failed on Monday because of the large number of web log postings I've made this year. So I had to spend last night making critical changes to the software, and there was no time for a news story. I apologize for the interruption.

It was a fairly drastic change to a section of the software, and bugs are always a possibility. If you run into any problems -- a bad link, or an error message embedded in the article text, for example -- please let me know.

Yemen confused over America's military intentions

Two men of Yemeni descent traveled by plane to Chicago. From there, they went on to Amsterdam, planning to go on to Dubai, but their luggage went to Washington DC -- which already is a breach of Homeland Security rules. When the luggage was searched, they found several cell phones taped together, and another cell phone taped to a bottle of Pepto-Bismol, according to the NY Times.

Security officials became concerned that the flight was a dry run for a terrorist attack, and the two Yemenis were held for questioning in Amsterdam. However, it's been concluded that all the evidence had innocent explanations -- it's a "cultural" thing to tape things together. OK, fine.

But the story is one more example of the extreme sensitivity that's developed towards Yemen, and to Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), headquartered in Yemen -- ever since it was learned that last year's Christmas "underwear bomber" was trained in Yemen.

As we've reported, the CIA has made a remarkable reassessment: They now consider AQAP to be a bigger security threat to the United States than the core al-Qaeda group in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Furthermore, the BBC is reporting that there are now British military personnel stationed in Yemen.

Yemeni politicians and journalists have reacted sharply and negatively to these stories, apparently for fear that an escalating American presence in Yemen could turn the country into another theatre of war, like Iraq and Afghanistan.

Yemen's Defense Ministry is quoting officials who are denying reports that there are British and American troops in Yemen, and are labeling those reports as "lies," according to News Yemen. "Yemen doesn't accept any foreign military existence on its land and it has a strong security and military institutions able to carry their tasks in combating terrorism and control security," he says.

An opinion column in the Yemen Post says that local analysts are "lost and astonished" to hear that the US government is claiming that AQAP is a bigger threat than "its mother in Pakistan," and blames the situation on Saudi Arabia.

Readers may recall that on several occasions I've reported on a war in northern Yemen between Houthi rebels and Yemen's army, with support from the U.S. army in the form of intelligence, American special forces, and attacks by America cruise missiles. (See "Yemen wars escalate rapidly, as US provides military support.")

In that story, I reported that the Houthis, who are Shia Muslims with links to Iran, were expanding the war by crossing the border into Saudi Arabia, and that the Saudi air force was making bombing strikes on Houthi positions in north Yemen.

Much to my surprise, the opinion writer referenced above has a completely different interpretation of that whole scene:

"Over 80% of Al-Qaeda followers in Yemen were raised or studied in Saudi Arabia. Sources even clarified that Saudi princes paid Al-Qaeda to leave Saudi and head to Yemen. This angered [Yemen's] President Saleh and that is why some believe that Saleh forced Saudi to involve itself in the war against Houthis, which in return disgraced the Saudi regime and showed its weakness. This was done in retaliation.

Even with Saudi being a bigger Al-Qaeda threat, we all know the United States can’t rage war against Saudi, who has been tremendously loyal and obedient to Washington over the last three decades.

Is Al-Qaeda in Yemen really a threat to America? Let’s change the question. Is the United States a threat to Yemen? Will the United States be the cause for killing thousands of civilians in Yemen as it did in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq?

In an interview I had with Al-Jazeera earlier, I stated that the United States must understand that its strategy in its war against terror has failed in every country it approached, and that spilling blood will not solve problems. The United States has not won a single war against Al-Qaeda in its short history, only if you think that the 5% of lands the Afghan government controls in Afghanistan is a success in the war on terror."

This is a substantially different set of facts than what the media has reported before. We'll be watching this situation in the future to get a clearer picture, and we'll be especially watching to see how the Obama administration escalates its military involvement in Yemen's fight with al-Qaeda.

Additional links

As the Mideast peace talks approach, Palestinian gunmen opened fire on an Israeli car in the West Bank, killing four passengers. It's thought that the purpose of the attack was to sabotage the peace talks. Associated Press

Concerns are growing in Mongolia that China is trying to gain economic hegemony over the country. As a result, a new railway will be built entirely in Mongolian territory, rather than taking a much shorter route that crosses Chinese territory. Geopolitical Monitor

At the same time, tensions are growing between Russia and China over Russia's mineral-rich Far East, which is increasingly being populated by ethnic Chinese. Telegraph

As President Obama announces that US combat troops are withdrawing from Iraq, Baghdad residents are mourning their departure. Spiegel

As tensions grow between India and China, India is feeling concern about China's increasing presence in the Indian Ocean. Reuters

Overseas remittances to Saigon (Ho Chi Minh city) in South Vietnam totaled $2.56 billion in the first eight months of the year, a drop of 20% from the same period in 2009. Reuters

China is supposed to be a wealthy nation, but the Moody's ratings agency is expressing concern that China's banks are borrowing a great deal of money (presumably for its stimulus and bailout programs) and going into debt. As I've said, China's economy is in even more trouble than America's economy, and by the Law of Diminishing Returns, the bailout and stimulus programs are less and less effective. Telegraph

ROTC was abolished at many politically liberal colleges in the 1960s and 1970s, but now it's poised to make a comeback at many élite colleges. Time Magazine

US consumers are split into two clear and distinct groups. The ones with secure jobs, who are surviving the economic downturn are spending as much as ever, while the ones who war dealing with chronic unemployment have cut back sharply, spending only on the bare necessities. Thus, for example, McDonald's is doing well, and high-end restaurant chains like Starbucks are doing well, but businesses in the middle are faltering. Financial Times (Access).

The constant use of computers and smart phones is giving young people in both Japan and China "character amnesia," where they're unable to write any more in the character based writing system. Independent

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sep-2010
1-Sep-10 News -- Amsterdam arrests highlight Yemen confusion

Web site software problems

Yemen confused over America's military intentions

Additional links

Web Log Pages

	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sep-2010 1-Sep-10 News -- Amsterdam arrests highlight Yemen confusion

Web site software problems

Yemen confused over America's military intentions

Additional links

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sep-2010
1-Sep-10 News -- Amsterdam arrests highlight Yemen confusion