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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Dec-2010
14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia

Web Log - December, 2010

14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia

Russia expresses 'deep concern' over North Korea's nuclear development

Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia

Russian riot police were forced to shut down a section of central Moscow on Monday evening, to head off a threatened new racial riot.

The move was made because of a tip-off that ethnic Russian football (soccer) fans were planning to face off with migrants, mainly from the Muslim North Caucasus region, according to Ria Novosti.

Early last week, football fan Yegor Svirido was shot dead in a fight between football fans and migrants. A 26 year old man, Aslan Cherkessov, 26, from the North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, was accused of the murder and arrested.

A massive race riot broke out on Saturday during a memorial rally for Svirido, involving 5000-7000 ethnic Russians. 30 people were injured. According to the VOA account:

"On Monday, Russians looked in shock at the images of last weekend's violence in downtown Moscow: hundreds of young men raising their right arms in stiff-armed Nazi salutes against the red brick walls of the Kremlin; young men in black hoods attacking riot police with chunks of ice, burning flares, glass bottles and steel rods; five young men from Caucasus, blood streaming down their faces, cowering behind policemen who rescued them from nationalist attackers."

President Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that the perpetrators would be punished, and that "everything is under control," according to Reuters. Medvedev said the following:

"Actions aimed at inciting racial, ethnic or religious hatred and enmity are particularly dangerous: They threaten the state's stability. The latest events in Moscow -- the pogroms, the attacks on people -- must be prosecuted as crimes and those responsible, punished."

In his Twitter feed, he added, "In Moscow and Russia, everything is under control. We will deal with everyone who stirred up trouble. Have no doubt!"

Actually, analysts have plenty of doubt, as xenophobia and violence by ethnic Russias against people of "non-Slavic appearance" from Central Asia and the Caucasus has been increasing.

Historically, the Caucasus region is one of the most violent on earth, because of the interethnic wars, and because it's one of the major regions (along with the Crimea and the Balkans) where fault line wars have been fought between the Muslim civilization and the Orthodox Christian civilization. The great forces that have lead to these wars over the centuries appear to be rising again.

Some fantasy economic analysis

Here's something I heard from an analyst on Bloomberg tv on Monday morning:

"This is the time of year everyone's brushing up their forecasts, what they expect for next year.
And WOW, are people waxing optimistic! I mean, you have everyone talking about what a great year 2011 is going to be.
In fact Goldman Sachs said it's going to be a superb backdrop for equities. You have the average forecast up 11% for 2011. If we were to hit that, that would be three years in a row of gains. That hasn't happened in a decade. So people are feeling very, very good about stocks these days."

What she forgot to mention is that what happened a decade ago is the collapse of the dot-com bubble after three years of bubble growth in the stock market. These analysts are supposed to be experts, but it never occurs to them that if there was a big bubble a decade ago, then there might be a big bubble today.

I'm still amazed that throughout 2004-2007, all we heard on CNBC and read in WSJ was that there was no housing bubble. Today, everybody talks about the housing bubble in 2004-2007. These experts on CNBC have no idea what's going on until it's too late.

On Monday evening, on Fox News, Bill O'Reilly said the following:

"I say this: When Republicans take control of the House in January, they should put forth immediately legislation that cuts federal spending by 25% over the next three years.
It's simple. The Feds have to stop spending so much money. If the Republican party leads the way in containing Federal spending, the folks will notice, and the unemployment extension will not mean very much down the road.
Again, the country needs a 25% federal spending cut over the next three years. 8 and 1/3 each year. It's gonna be painful but it has to be done. Of course many Democrats will oppose that, perhaps including President Obama.
That will set the stage for the election of 2012. But for now, we need this tax compromise, so pass it."

Can anyone imagine the Congress doing anything like this? This is based on the same fantasy as the previous comment -- that there'll be a huge recovery next year, and so there'll be plenty of money sloshing around, and no problem cutting federal spending by 25%.

Today on TV I also heard a couple of analysts talk about an impending banking crisis in Europe, and another analyst talk about China's bubble bursting. But these are just voices in the wilderness. And anyway, so what? Those things are happening in other countries, and have nothing to do with us.

Additional links

Russia's foreign minister has expressed "deep concern" about North Korea's ability to enrich uranium and produce nuclear weapons. AFP.

America's unsuccessful attempt to bribe the Israelis by promising a squadron of fighter planes in return for a 90 day extension of the West Bank settlement freeze shows how out of touch with reality all sides in the Mideast are, according to columnist Thomas Friedman. His advice is that the U.S. should pull out of the negotiations, and let the Israelis and Palestinians figure it out themselves. As I recall, that's the conclusion that President Bush reached, but he was then criticized for not being a leader in the Mideast. NY Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Dec-2010 14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia

Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia

Some fantasy economic analysis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Dec-2010
14-Dec-10 News -- Medvedev warns that nationalist pogroms are destabilizing Russia