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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Dec-2010
19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation kills Chinese fishermen as Korea tension escalates

Web Log - December, 2010

19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation kills Chinese fishermen as Korea tension escalates

It's time to update the Conflict Risk Graphic

Conflict risk level for next 6-12 months as of: 11-Aug-2008

W. Europe 1 Arab Israeli 3

Russia Caucasus 3 Kashmir 3

China 2 North Korea 2

Financial 3 Swine/Bird flu 3

Key: 1=green 1=Low risk 2=yellow 2=Med 3=red 3=High 4=black 4=Active

Several web site readers have complained to me that the Conflict Risk Graphic on the home page of this web site is sadly out of date, showing Korea at level 2, when it clearly should be at level 3.

Unfortunately they're right, as I haven't updated the graphic in a couple of years. So I'll update it in the next couple of weeks.

For each of the six regions named in the graphic, the risk level is supposed to reflect the level of risk that a war will occur in that region in the next six months. The six regions were chosen because, unlike other regions of the world, any local war in one of the six regions is likely to escalate into a world war within a few months.

I'd like to solicit opinions from any web site readers who wish to offer them.

With Europe plummeting into financial crisis, should its risk level be changed from 1 to 2?

Have things calmed down enough in the Kashmir region to lower its risk level from 3 to 2?

Let me know what you think.

Chinese fisherman die in confrontation with S. Korea coast guard

Two Chinese fishermen were missing and another in critical condition after their trawler capsized after colliding with a South Korean Coast Guard boat Saturday. Four S. Korean coast guard officers were also injured.

According to the Korea Times news account, the Chinese fishing boat was illegally poaching in South Korean waters, and illegal Chinese fishing is "rampant." The deaths occurred when the fishing boat rammed the coast guard ship, after which the Chinese fishermen attacked the Korean officers with iron pipes and clubs, according to South Korean officials.

This incident occurred late on Saturday, and China has not yet formally reacted to it, but at the very least it will increase tensions on the Korean peninsula.

In a similar incident in September, a Chinese fishing boat rammed a Japanese naval vessal in waters near islands under Japanese jurisdiction but claimed as sovereign territory by the Chinese. When the Japanese arrested the shipping boat captain, China became extremely belligerent and nationalistic, greatly increasing tensions between China and Japan. (See "29-Sep-10 News -- The eclipsing of China's Hu Jintao and Wen Jiaboa.")

The disputed islands are called the Senkaku Islands by the Japanese, and the Diaoyu Islands by the Chinese. The U.S. has confirmed that it's bound by a 1960 treaty with Japan to defend Japan militarily if China attacks the disputed islands.

It'll be interesting to see whether the Chinese make a big deal of this new incident at Sunday's U.N. Security Council meeting.

S. Korea postpones live fire drills near Yeonpyeong Island

Because of bad weather, South Korea has postponed the live fire artillery exercises near Yeonpyeong Island until Monday or Tuesday, according to the Associated Press.

The live fire drills were originally scheduled for Saturday, and are considered routine naval exercises. However, the North Koreans have threatened military retaliation if they take place. The North Koreans give last month's live fire exercises as a reason for artillery attacks on civilians on November 23 on Yeonpyeong Island.

Russia blames US for delaying UN Security Council meeting till Sunday

At the urging of Russia, the United Nations Security Council will meet at 11 am ET on Sunday to discuss the critical situation on the Korean peninsula. According to CNN, Russia wanted to have the meeting on Saturday, and blames the United States for the one day delay, saying, "We assume that nothing will happen in the interim that would bring about further aggravation."

In a statement on Saturday, China said it is deeply worried about the situation on the Korean Peninsula, which is extremely precarious, highly complicated and sensitive, according to Xinhua.

China interprets the November 23 incident as an exchange of artillery fire between the North and South that resulted in the death of four S. Korean citizens. China quotes the North Koreans as urging the South to cancel the next planned live fire exercise, saying that North Korea would deliver a second and third "unpredicted self-defense counterattack" that would be bigger and more powerful than the previous one to defend its territorial waters.

Additional links

Five Palestinian militants were killed by an Israeli air strike into the Gaza Strip as they were preparing to launch rockets into Israeli territory. The militants were from Islamic Jihad and Popular Resistance Committees. Al-Jazeera

Iran's citizens can expect a big rise in the price of petrol (gasoline) as the government ends the huge subsidy on petrol. Subsidies allowed Iranians to fuel their cars for just 10 cents per liter. Tehran Times

Arab states and the Palestinian Authority are drafting a statement asking the U.N. Security Council to denounce Israeli building of settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Israelis fear that the security counsil resolution will denounce Israel, and that the Obama administration will not rush to exercise its veto against the resolution. Haaretz

There will be a total eclipse of the moon, visible throughout North and Central America, on Monday night and Tuesday morning. LA Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation kills Chinese fishermen as Korea tension escalates thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Dec-2010) Permanent Link
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