	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Apr-2011
20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Web Log - April, 2011

20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Iran's government splits over how to take advantage of Arab uprisings

Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia

The riots and demonstrations that consumed Manama, the capital of Bahrain, a few weeks ago have quieted down, but Bahraini officials are still arresting dozens of Shia professionals, including lawyers and doctors. Bahrain citizens who are students at universities and colleges in Britain are having their funding canceled and are ordered to return home immediately if they took part in peaceful protests, according to the Guardian.

Bahrain's Imam Jawad mosque was demolished by Bahrain's tanks, according to Iran

Bahrain's Imam Jawad mosque was demolished by Bahrain's tanks, according to Iran

Furthermore, the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE, sent troops to Bahrain on March 15 to suppress the riots, and those troops are there to stay, at least until the "external threat" is gone. The Gulf News quotes Bahrain's Foreign Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa as saying:

"There are no Saudi forces, there are GCC forces and they will leave when they are done with any external threat. ...
The external threat is a regional one. The external threat is a complete misunderstanding between the GCC and Iran. This is a threat.
I am not pointing fingers here, but what we are seeing from Iran, on Bahrain, on Saudi Arabia, on Kuwait, the occupation of the islands of the UAE, doesn't make the situation a positive one. It keeps it a constant threat, and an ongoing one."

Bahrain has a Sunni Muslim government, although the country's population is 2/3 Shia Muslim. Iran has a Shia Muslim government and population, and has historically claimed to have sovereignty over Bahrain.

Bahrain has been destroying Shia mosques in Iran, according to Iran's state-run Press TV. The Imam Jawad mosque (pictured above), was destroyed, as well as several other Shia mosques.

However, Iran's claim is getting no sympathy from Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, who has pledged unwavering support for Bahrain, according to Gulf News. "The security of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia is indivisible - being two bodies with one soul," he said.

In fact, Saudi Arabia has threatened to take measures that might include withdrawing the Saudi diplomatic mission from Iran. This comes after Iranians protested in front of a Saudi embassy, and threw stones, breaking some windows, according to Reuters. "We hope that these continuous violations will not lead us to take other positions," said the Saudi foreign minister.

Furthermore, Iran has been taking advantage of the turmoil caused by the Arab uprisings to step up arms smugglings to its proxies in the region, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, according to UPI. When Hosni Mubarak was still in power in Egypt, he attempted to block Iran's arms shipments from reaching Hamas, but since he stepped down, arms trafficking has become easier.

An analysis by Debka, indicates that tensions are growing so high between the GCC, led by Saudi Arabia, and Iran that armed clashes between the two countries are a possibility. Iran may have to engage in some kind of military action, or lose credibility with the Shia communities in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and UAE.

Like many countries with interests in the Mideast, Iran has been schizophrenic about the uprisings in various Mideast countries. When the uprisings began in Tunisia and Egypt, Iran congratulated itself as being the inspiration for those uprisings, and encouraged them. However, Iran has not been so sympathetic with the uprisings in Syria, and reportedly has supplied weapons to the Syrian government to smash the uprisings. And, of course, Iran has said nothing about the violent behavior of its own security forces in response to the protests to the alleged fixing of the June, 2009, re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as president.

However, exactly what tangible action Iran should take in the face of popular unrest in Bahrain and elsewhere in the Arab world is causing a war of words in Tehran, according to Jamestown. The public debate is largely along the political fault line that divides the Ahmadinejad government from reformist parliamentarians and those aligned with the Green opposition movement. Domestic political rivalries are preventing Iran's government from developing an effective strategy, and are only generating anger and threats from the GCC states.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Apr-2011) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Apr-2011 20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 20-Apr-2011
20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia