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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Mar-2012
8-Mar-12 World View -- Russia preparing for a Caucasus war involving Iran

Web Log - March, 2012

8-Mar-12 World View -- Russia preparing for a Caucasus war involving Iran

Deadline arrives for private investor deal over Greece's debt

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.

Sarkozy takes harsh anti-immigrant position in France's presidential campaign


Nicolas Sarkozy
Nicolas Sarkozy

French president Nicolas Sarkozy, considered almost certain to lose the upcoming presidential election to Socialist challenger François Hollande, and has declared that there are too many foreigners in France:

"Our system of integration is working increasingly badly, because we have too many foreigners on our territory and we can no longer manage to find them accommodation, a job, a school."

He has now vowed to cut immigration by half and limit state benefits for legal migrants. Guardian

Deadline arrives for private investor deal over Greece's debt

By the end of the day on Thursday, we should know whether enough private bondholders have agreed to take part in the bond swap deal where they lose 75% of their investment but they stave off a disorderly default by Greece. At least 66% of the outstanding bonds, and preferably at least 75%, will have to take part in the trade to allow Greece to apply "collective action clauses" (CACs) to the remaining bondholders to force them to accept an even harsher bond swap deal. Kathimerini

Israel-Azerbaijan arms deal raises tensions with Iran


Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenia (CIA World Fact Book)
Azerbaijan, including Nagorno-Karabakh, occupied by Armenia (CIA World Fact Book)

Israeli defense officials have confirmed a deal to sell Azerbaijan drones, antiaircraft, and missile defense systems for some $1.6 billion. The news of Israel's sale of the military equipment comes as tensions over Iran's nuclear program are reaching critical levels. Azerbaijan shares a 600 km border with Iran, and Iran's Foreign Ministry previously had accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israel's spy agency Mossad to operate in Azerbaijan as a base to spy on Iran and to carry out terrorist operations against Iran, accusations that are denied. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry says that, "Our foreign policy is not directed against anyone else," and explains that the weapons were bought "to liberate occupied Azerbaijani land," a reference to the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was seized from Azerbaijan by Armenian forces during a war in the 1990s. The foreign ministry also cited the continuing conflict with neighbor Armenia over Karabakh, where no peace deal has yet been signed, despite years of negotiations since the 1994 ceasefire. Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Press TV (Tehran)

Russia preparing for a Caucasus war involving Iran

For the first time since the Georgia war in 2008, Russia is substantially reinforcing its military forces in the Caucasus, in expectation of a war involving Iran this summer, concerns that have only increased with the announcement of of the Israeli arms sale to Azerbaijan. However, it's not believed that the weapons were procured for use against Iran. Instead, the Foreign Ministry statement that the weapons were bought "to liberate occupied Azerbaijani land," means that the real danger is that Azerbaijan will launch a war with Armenia, and that will lead to a larger regional war involving Iran. Jamestown

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Mar-12 World View -- Russia preparing for a Caucasus war involving Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Mar-2012) Permanent Link
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