*** 26-May-14 World View -- Europe has 'political earthquake' as anti-EU parties surge in elections

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Europe has 'political earthquake' as anti-EU parties surge in elections
• 'Chocolate King' wins presidential election in Ukraine
• Pope Francis to try his hand at a Mideast 'peace process'

****
**** Europe has 'political earthquake' as anti-EU parties surge in elections
****


Marine Le Pen rally in Paris. The sign says, 'No to Brussels, yes to France.'

France's president François Hollande referred to Sunday's European
Parliament election as a "political earthquake," as mainstream parties
across Europe, including Hollande's own Socialist party, suffered
calamitous defeat. Although each country is different, the
generalization is that the parties that did better than expected favor
strong controls on immigration, and advocate leaving the euro currency
or the European Union entirely.

A big factor in all the elections was the euro crisis, which had not
yet occurred at the time of the last European Parliament elections in
2009. Countries like France and Greece chafe at the austerity
measures being forced on them, while countries like Germany dislike
having to bail out the other countries.

Marine Le Pen, leader of France's far right Front National party,
(the phrase "far right" has different meanings in Europe and America)
said that France had "shouted loud and clear" that it wanted to be run
"by the French, for the French and with the French" and not by
"foreign commissioners" in Brussels. Front National is expected to
take 25% of the vote, while the Socialist party will receive its
lowest ever vote at 14.5%.

Britain's UK Independence Party (UKIP) scored a stunning victory by
coming out ahead of both mainstream parties, Labor and Conservative,
and is the first party in more than a century to do so. Immigration
is considered by many to be a serious problem in the UK, and there has
been talk for some time of the UK leaving the European Union. The
UKIP victory may also have repercussions for the referendum to be held
in the Fall by Scotland, to determine whether it should secede from
the UK.

In Greece, two parties at opposite extremes did well, united by anger
at austerity measures. The far left anti-bailout anti-austerity party
Syriza got 26.7%, coming in in first place among the parties, but that
will not be enough to unseat prime minister Antonis Samaris, whose New
Democracy party came in second with 22.8% and can form a coalition
with other parties. Greece's neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party got 10% of
the vote, enough to send three MEPs (Members of Parliament) to
Brussels, even though some party leaders are being tried for criminal
activities.

Overall, the anti-EU parties did better than expected, but pro-EU
parties will still continue to dominate the European Parliament in
Brussels. Independent (London) and Washington Post and Kathimerini

****
**** 'Chocolate King' wins presidential election in Ukraine
****

Exit polls show that billionaire candy tycoon Petro Poroshenko won a
clear victory in Sunday's election for president of Ukraine. He
supports strong ties with Europe, but also wants to mend relations
with Russia. This was a solid victory by Poroshenko, and may restore
confidence that Ukraine will survive intact, though without Crimea.
Russia's president Vladimir Putin had said he would honor the results
of the election, though in the past his actions have borne little
relationship to his promises. If he keeps his promise, then
presumably he will stop saying that the government in Kiev is the
result of an illegitimate fascist coup.

As expected, voting was light in the eastern provinces of Luhansk and
Donetsk, where pro-Russian activists have declared their independence
from Kiev, and are trying to use violence to bring about the
annexation of the two provinces by Russia. BBC showed videos of
pro-Russian thugs threatening voters and smashing ballot boxes to
prevent a vote from taking place. However, turnout was high in the
rest of Ukraine. AP and RFERL

****
**** Pope Francis to try his hand at a Mideast 'peace process'
****

Presidents Bill Clinton, George W Bush, and Barack Obama have all
tried to arrange a peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians,
without success, as have a number of European leaders. Now Pope
Francis has announced his is joining the crowd. The Pope is on a
three day visit to the Mideast. ( "25-May-14 World View -- Pope Francis visits Mideast to reconcile with Jews, Orthodox, and Muslims"
)

After giving an outdoor mass in Bethlehem's Manger Square on
Sunday, he invited Palestinian and Israeli leaders to the
Vatican for a "peace initiative." According to the Pope:

<QUOTE>"In this, the birthplace of the Prince of Peace, I
wish to invite you, President Mahmoud Abbas, together with Israeli
President Shimon Peres, to join me in heartfelt prayer to God for
the gift of peace.

I offer my home in the Vatican as a place for this encounter of
prayer.

Building peace is difficult, but living without peace is a
constant torment. The men and women of these lands, and of the
entire world, all of them, ask us to bring before God their
fervent hopes for peace."<END QUOTE>

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas accepted the offer to go
to the Vatican, while the office of Israeli President Shimon Peres
issued a statement welcoming the invitation.

It's now been 11 years since I wrote my first generational analysis of
the Mideast peace process in May 2003, when President George Bush
issued his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace." From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, peace
in the Mideast is impossible, because the Arabs and the Jews will be
re-fighting their genocidal war that began last time in 1947 with the
partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.
The traumatized survivors of that war spent their lives doing
everything they could to keep anything so horrible from happening to
the children and grandchildren, and they succeeded in that. But now
almost all of those survivors are gone, with the major exception being
Mahmoud Abbas himself, and the younger generations have no hesitancy
in risking steps that could spiral into all out war. When Abbas
retires or dies, then the last major obstacle to such a war will be
removed. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, François Hollande, Socialist Party,
Marine Le Pen, Front National, UK Independence Party, UKIP,
Greece, Antonis Samaris, Syriza, Golden Dawn,
Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Crimea, Russia, Vladimir Putin,
Luhansk, Donetsk, Pope Francis, Vatican,
Mahmoud Abbas, Shimon Peres

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*** 27-May-14 World View -- Nigeria backs out of deal to recover Boko Haram's abducted schoolgirls

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria backs out of deal to recover Boko Haram's abducted schoolgirls
• Attacks on schoolgirls spread to Balochistan in southwest Pakistan
• Jordan bluntly expels Syria's ambassador

****
**** Nigeria backs out of deal to recover Boko Haram's abducted schoolgirls
****


Schoolgirls abducted by Boko Haram

Nigerian government officials are saying that they know the location
of the 200+ schoolgirls that were abducted by Boko Haram last month,
but they will not be recovered by force, because any gunfire would put
the girls' lives in danger.

The BBC is reporting that the Nigerian government had made a deal with
Boko Haram to exchange 50 of the girls for 100 Boko Haram militants
who have been captured and put in jail. However, the government
backed out of the deal during a summit meeting earlier this month with
Nigerian, African and Western leaders at which they agreed to wage
"total war" against Boko Haram. ( "19-May-14 World View -- Boko Haram attacks Chinese camp as summit takes place in Paris"
) No reason was given for why the
deal canceled, but it's surmised that negotiating with terrorists and
agreeing to the exchange would encourage a lot more abductions of
other schoolgirls. Channels TV (Nigeria)

****
**** Attacks on schoolgirls spread to Balochistan in southwest Pakistan
****

The Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP) have mostly focused
their terrorist attacks on northwest Pakistan, but now a new branch,
but now a new splinter group, Tanzeem-ul-Islami-ul-Furqan (TIF -
Organization of the creation of Islam) is spreading terror attacks
deep into the southwest province of Balochistan, and is particularly
targeting schools with girls enrolled. A letter sent to
23 English Language Learning Centers warned that teaching
in English is forbidden, and added:

<QUOTE>"Private schools should completely stop girls’
education, both co-education and separate education. We urge all
van and taxi drivers to refrain from taking girls to
schools. Otherwise, they will also be targeted... Any institution
or persons defying the warning will be deemed as an enemy of Islam
and therefore punished."<END QUOTE>

The group has been killing school teachers and burning down schools,
and have threatened "the worst consequences as prescribed in the
Quran" if girls' education is not completely shut down.

All this is happening in the context of separatist activist by a
Baloch nationalist group called the Baloch Student Organization
(BSO-Azad). Pakistan's government has reacted to this separatist
activism by relocating thousands of ethnic Punjabis to Balochistan for
large development project. This has led to violence by Balochis
against Punjabis, with the result that over 19,000 thousands of
Balochi civilians have "disappeared" from abductions by Pakistan's
intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), with more than
2,000 of them having been "killed and dumped." South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India) and Al-Jazeera

****
**** Jordan bluntly expels Syria's ambassador
****

A furious Jordanian foreign ministry declared Syria's ambassador
Bahjat Suleiman, a former general and intelligence chief,
as persona non grata, and ordered him to leave the
country within 24 hours. According to the state-run news
agency:

<QUOTE>"The government took the decision after the envoy
continued his insults and un-friendly statements against Jordan,
Jordanian political figures, national institutions and citizens,
despite repeated warnings by the government not to indulge in and
desist from making such provocative statements, the envoy said.

"Mr. Suleiman used Jordan as a platform to cast doubt on Jordan's
stances and directed baseless accusations on more than one
occasion and through such statements," the spokesperson said,
noting that he used Jordanian territories to direct insults
against Arab and neighboring countries and their leadership, with
whom Jordan has strong ties.

These insults, which targeted Jordan and Arab countries, were a
flagrant violation of all diplomatic norms and charters, she said,
stressing that Jordan totally rejects such acts. The envoy had not
observed the simplest diplomatic norms in a country that is
hosting hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees."<END QUOTE>

Jordan is harboring over a million refugees from Syria, as a result of
the genocidal war and crimes against humanity by Syria's president
Bashar al-Assad. Apparently some of the insults that Jordan was
complaining about was that Suleiman accused Jordan of harboring
terrorists by giving refuge to refugees. This guy really has balls.

The expulsion comes just a few days before the planned June 3 Syrian
presidential election, which many people consider to be a farce.
Suleiman had announced that Syrian citizens living in Jordan would be
able to come to the Syrian embassy in Amman and vote there. Jordan's
foreign minister had warned that this could bring security problems to
Amman.

In a tit-for-tat retaliation, Syria expelled Jordan's
chargé-d'affaires from Damascus. Jordanian officials said the chargé
d'affaires was not currently in Syria. Petra (Jordan) and Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Boko Haram,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Tanzeem-ul-Islami-ul-Furqan, TIF,
Organization of the creation of Islam,
Balochistan, Baloch Student Organization, BSO-Azad,
Inter-Services Intelligence, ISI,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Bahjat Suleiman, Jordan

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*** 28-May-14 World View -- Vietnam accuses China of ramming and sinking its fishing boat

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Vietnam accuses China of ramming and sinking its fishing boat
• Japan strengthens military alliances with Philippines and Vietnam
• Egypt extends presidential election for a day because of low turnout

****
**** Vietnam accuses China of ramming and sinking its fishing boat
****


Shinzo Abe (WSJ)

Vietnam says that about 40 Chinese steel-hulled vessels surrounded a
group of smaller, wooden Vietnamese fishing ships on Monday afternoon
in the South China Sea. One fishing boat was rammed and sank, and the
fisherman were picked up by other Vietnamese boats.

China said that the opposite occurred. According to the state-run
news agency, the fishing boat capsized after harassing and colliding
with a Chinese fishing boat. According to China, Vietnam has sent a
number of ships to obstruct the oil drilling in waters claimed by both
Vietnam and China.

China has repeatedly said that they are going to annex regions of the
South and East China Seas belonging to Japan, Vietnam, Brunei,
Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, often for centuries. China
is enforcing its demands with it's huge and growing military power,
and threats of military action against any country that doesn't obey
its commands.

According to Vietnam, China has been repeatedly attacking Vietnamese
ships. Chinese warships frequently train their high-pressure water
hoses on exhaust pipes, antennae, radars and windows of Vietnamese
shops, in order to disable to sink them. AP and Xinhua and CNN and Thanh Nien News

****
**** Japan strengthens military alliances with Philippines and Vietnam
****

With China's bellicosity becoming more strident almost every week,
Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe is strengthening Japan's military
links with Vietnam and the Philippines, and said that with regard to
China's "unilateral drilling activities" in the South China Sea, "We
will never tolerate a change to the status quo by force or coercion."

In December 2013, Japan provided 10 patrol vessels to the Philippines
Coast Guard, and is now planning to accelerate similar aid
to Vietnam. According to Abe:

<QUOTE>"Unilateral drilling activities are taking place in
areas of the South China Sea where borders are not defined. I am
deeply concerned about the heightening of tensions that has
resulted. Japan’s position is that we will never tolerate the
change of status quo by force or coercion. We are seeking a
peaceful resolution based on international law."<END QUOTE>

WSJ and VOR

****
**** Egypt extends presidential election for a day because of low turnout
****

It was two years ago that Mohamed Morsi was elected president of Egypt
in the only democratic election in Egypt's multi-millennial history.
And it was one year ago, that the army, led by general Abdel al-Fattah
al-Sisi, overthrew Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government in a
coup, jailing him and thousands of supporters, and even arranging for
death sentences for Muslim Brotherhood leaders. It's particularly
scandalous that several al-Jazeera reporters have been jailed for
reporting the news from Egypt, and those reporters have now been in
jail for eight months.

So now, al-Sisi has resigned from the army and returned to civilian
life so that he can run for President of Egypt. The Egyptian people
had two days to cast their votes, Monday and Tuesday. The problem is
that turnout was exceptionally low -- why bother to vote when you know
that al-Sisi is going to win? This is being seen as a humiliation for
al-Sisi and a problem for Egypt, since an extremely low turnout cuts
al-Sisi's credibility and ability to govern. It's also in sharp
contrast to the huge crowds that turned out in 2012 to vote for
Mohamed Morsi.

So Egypt has announced that the election has been extended to a third
day, Wednesday, so that more people can vote. Authorities are even
threatening to fine people who don't vote. Al Ahram (Cairo) and CBS News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Vietnam, China, South China Sea,
Japan, Philippines, Shinzo Abe,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

The problem is that you could say this about anything. For example,
why is WW II a crisis war for America? One could just as easily say
that it was one long war that ran from 1917 to 1954. How would you
prove otherwise?

You've provided a long list of wars, and obviously I can't respond
to all of them.

So I'd like to suggest that you pick one of the wars, the one that you
feel makes your point the best, and do your own research. Try to find
5-10 detailed histories of the war, and the decades preceding and
following the war, and see if you can identify:

• When non-crisis clashes began.
• What ethnic, racial, or religious fault lines existed?
• When the regeneracy occurred.
• When the crisis climax occurred.
• What happened in the aftermath.

Then we can discuss whether that particular war fits the crisis war
paradigm or not.

John

WW2 is identified as a crisis war because of our willingness to fight against a correctly perceived existential threat, also Americas geopolitical position and social institutions were transformed by ww2. WW2 also resulted in demographic movements across the country that consolidated trends started during WW1. WW1 is not considered a crisis war because it did not alter our political institutions and was seen by a large chunk of the populace as "not being our war" even though mass also mobilization and casualties also occurred in WW1.

As I mentioned earlier there are numerous examples of a large-scale wars occurring in non-crisis periods, as well as crisis era wars lasting for years, if not decades. Take the French revolution as an example: when war broke out between france against Austria and Prussia in 1792 it quickly spiraled into what we call today "total war", there was mass mobilization of millions of able bodied citizens at the same time mass purges of groups perceived to be sympathetic to the enemy. Over 1 million soldiers were deployed and hundreds of thousands of war deaths occurred at the same time internal purges of entire regions seen as sympathetic to the enemy resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians, the vendee is an archetypical example for this period. Yet these war actions and atrocities had largely died down by about 1795. Even so only a generation later there was a similar mass mobilization of millions of soldiers and able-bodied citizens in the 1812-1815 period, nearly million soldiers were mobilized shortly before 1812 and a similar number mobilized in 1813. Toward the end of this later period plans to mobilize over 2.5 million soldiers out of a population of only 30 million to 40 million were put into action and weren't completed only because France had been defeated before these mobilizations could be fully carried out.

Another example is the Peloponnesian war in ancient Greece between Athens and Sparta. While the initial battles of the war were relatively small-scale, this was soon followed by the plague of Athens of 430-429 bc, the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians, the rapid replacement and/or death of those leaders who favored more cautious strategies in favor of younger leaders who favored "might is right" type approaches, continuous large scale campaigns from 429 BC to 422 BC when a peace treaty was signed. Even so, rather than move to preserve the peace for the next several generations, like what your theory implies should have followed; Events instead moved into a even more warlike direction, a new leader, Alcibiades rose to power and convinced the Athenians to restart the war by launching a massive invasion of Sicily, which was mostly allied with Sparta. This invasion was defeated after several large scale battles, even after this the war continued for 10 more years in which fleet after fleet was deployed by both sides and often were completely annihilated until the final defeat of Athens in 404 BC. Even so, this did not bring any lasting peace. Already by 403 BC political purges and massacres by the post-war regime in Athens had resulted in the deaths of thousands of citizens, and a revolution in which the city was taken by force by the revolutionaries. Another major war broke out in 395 BC in which armies consisting of tens of thousands of soldiers (a large number by ancient Greek standards) deployed against each other, there were also several large naval engagements as well, this new war, the Corinthian war ended around 387 BC. Yet in Sparta in particular neither the Peloponnesian war or the Corinthian war fundamentally transformed Spartan society, yet that state deployed armies continuously in both wars as well as in minor campaigns that also occurred in this period. A major war later did have a catastrophic transformational impact on Spartan society, but this was a war with another city state, Thebes, that broke out around 380 bc and encompassed the 370s and 360s bc. Yet this war wasn't even part of the crisis era at all, yet the social institutions of the nation of Sparta which had existed for hundreds of years were irreparably broken, the helots were freed and became and were organized into an independent city-state, several other independent nations were created to permanently contain Sparta and prevent any resurgence. Not only this but Thebes also was an major participant in the Peloponnesian and Corinthian wars as well as a participant in the skirmishes that preceded the Peloponnesian war. Even so Thebes as well as Athens a generation after this war, fought against Philip of Macedon's rise to power, and even after they had been defeated, Thebes later rebelled against Philip's son, alexander the great in a battle in which they fought to the bitter end and the city was later razed to the ground by the victors. As for Sparta, it refused to acknowledge Macedonian conquest and was basically left to wither on the vine, later when alexander the great's forces were fighting in their famous conquest of Persia, the Spartans invaded the city-state of megalopolis (one the independent states mentioned earlier as having been created to keep them contained) and was defeated in a large battle in which the defenders were reinforced by Macedonian forces. Athens to also fought against Macedon again in 323-322 BC.

*** 29-May-14 World View -- Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Riot police dismantle migrant camps in Calais France
• 1,000 migrants storm Spain's Melilla enclave in Africa
• Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two
• Is this the end of the TTP (Pakistan Taliban)?

****
**** Riot police dismantle migrant camps in Calais France
****


For many of the refugees, all of their belongings were bulldozed into a pile and put into plastic bags (AFP)

Three days after the anti-immigrant Front National party hammered
France's ruling Socialist party in elections of members to the
European Parliament, French riot police began forcibly evacuating
three migrant campsites in the northern city of Calais on Wednesday.
Some 500 migrants, mostly from Syria and Afghanistan, were forced to
grab whatever belongings they could before bulldozers came and cleared
the area.

Calais is a port town on the English Channel, and it's France's
closest point to Britain. Each year it draws thousands of migrants
hoping to travel to Britain, where they would try to get a job and
take advantage of Britain's welfare and health benefits. France 24 and Euro News

****
**** 1,000 migrants storm Spain's Melilla enclave in Africa
****


A flood of migrants scaled the metallic fence dividing Morocco from Metilla (AP)

On the same day that French riot police stormed the Calais migrant
camp, about 1,000 African migrants in Morocco stormed the border and
entered Spain's Melilla enclave. The enclave is considered Spanish
territory, and therefore European territory. The border between
Morocco and Melilla is separated by two tall metallic fences. If only
a few migrants attempt to cross, then the border police can stop them.
But on Wednesday, 1,000 migrants stormed the border in a coordinated
crossing. Some 400 of the migrants made it across, and headed for the
CETI refugee center there. The refugee center is supposed to handle
only 500 refugees, but it's now accommodating about 2,000. The
migrants will be processed at the center. A few will be offered
asylum in mainland Spain, and the rest will be sent back. The Local (Spain)

****
**** Major faction defects from Pakistan Taliban, splitting it in two
****

Pakistanis are expressing glee at the news of a major split in the
Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-e-Taliban - TTP).

The TTP is an umbrella organization for a number of terrorist
organizations in Pakistan. The TTP was founded in 2007 and led for
years by Baitullah Mehsud, from the Mehsud tribe in Waziristan.
Baitullah Mehsud was killed by an American drone strike in 2009. He
was succeeded by Hakimullah Mehsud, but Hakimullah Mehsud, also from
the Mehsud tribe, was later killed by another drone strike, this time
in November 2011.

The TTP was taken over by a non-Mehsud leader, Maulana Fazlullah. A
number of factions have been unhappy with Fazlullah's leadership, and
there have been bloody clashes between different militant
organizations, becoming more violent in the last few weeks.

A spokesman for the Mehsud tribe said on Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"We announce our defection from the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan, we have chosen Khalid Mehsud as the new leader for South
Waziristan.

The present (Fazlullah-led) Taliban regime is carrying out bomb
attacks on public places with bogus names and also money is being
extorted from madrassas and other institutions which is not
acceptable.

[The leadership] within the TTP has gone towards robberies,
extortion, unjustified killing [and targeting] Islamic madrassas,
and it is taking foreign funding to attack targets in Afghanistan,
taking responsibility for attacks under false identities, creating
divisions within other jihadi groups, and especially spreading
unfounded propaganda against the Afghan Taliban.

The TTP leadership has fallen into the hands of a bunch of
conspirators, the umbrella organization is involved in criminal
activities like robbery and extortion.

We consider the bombing of public places, extortion and
kidnappings un-Islamic, and since the TTP leaders continued with
these practices, we decided we should not share the
responsibility."<END QUOTE>

According to the spokesman, the Mehsud group is "unhappy" at the
deviation by Mullah Fazlullah from the real struggle of the TTP – the
establishment of an Islamic state. BBC and Dawn (Pakistan)

****
**** Is this the end of the TTP (Pakistan Taliban)?
****

A number of commentators are saying that this marks the end of the TTP
altogether, and that may well be true. It's going to be difficult to
get a collection of bloody terrorist groups to agree to obey the same
leader.

Other commentators are saying that this is good news, because it now
means that the "peace process" between the government and the Taliban
can go ahead. I can't imagine how anyone could possibly believe this.
The whole Pakistan "peace process" concept was always a total fantasy,
as I've written many times, but if there ever were going to be some
sort of signed peace agreement, it would have to have been with a
leadership powerful enough to bring everyone into line. Obviously the
Taliban has nothing like that today, if it ever did.

I've written about any number of TTP-linked terrorist groups. There's
Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), which is dedicated to war with India, and which
masterminded the Mumbai's horrific 26/11' three-day terrorist attack.
There's Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ),
which has publicly and firmly announced as its goal the extermination
of all Shia Muslims and Hazaras in Pakistan, and has been methodically
setting off bombs in order to achieve that goal, and is connected to
Jundullah, a terrorist group that has perpetrated major attacks on
Shia mosques and Revolutionary Guard stations in southeastern Iran.
And there's Tanzeem-ul-Islami-ul-Furqan (TIF), which we described
two days ago, and is
methodically attacking schools in southern Balochistan enrolling girl
students.

These organizations are not now going to agree to some kind of "peace
agreement" because TTP is splintering. In fact, if TTP had any effect
at all on these organizations, it would have been to be more moderate,
for the common good of all the bloody TTP terrorists. But without the
umbrella group, they're now free to act on their own, slaughtering
civilians at will, with nothing to inhibit them.

As I've said many times, the Generational Dynamics prediction is that
India and Pakistan will re-fight the bloody war between Hindus and
Muslims that followed Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian
sub-continent into India and Pakistan. That war was not directed by
presidents or prime ministers or leaders of any kind on either side.
It was driven by massive slaughter coming from entire generations of
people, entire generations of Hindus versus entire generations of
Muslims, in what was one of the bloodiest battles of the century. The
splintering of TTP can only bring a new version of that war closer.
Tribune (Pakistan) and Al-Jazeera



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, France, Calais, Syria, Afghanistan, Britain,
Morocco, Spain, Melilla,
Pakistan, Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, Pakistan Taliban,
Baitullah Mehsud, Hakimullah Mehsud, Maulana Fazlullah,
Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, LeJ, Tanzeem-ul-Islami-ul-Furqan, TIF

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*** 30-May-14 World View -- Missile attack on Ukraine helicopter portends a bigger conflict

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Missile attack on Ukraine helicopter portends a bigger conflict
• Hamas and Fatah move to unified Palestinian government, as Israel objects

****
**** Missile attack on Ukraine helicopter portends a bigger conflict
****


Black smoke rising from the scene of the helicopter crash (AP)

On Wednesday, pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine launched a
ground to air missile, and downed a Ukraine army helicopter,
killing 12 government soldiers. This was a devastating blow
to Ukraine's government, and it seriously escalates the conflict.

There have been multiple reports that fighters from Russia have been
joining the anti-government rebels. According to one report on the
BBC, there have been numerous fighters from Chechnya, Abkhazia and
South Ossetia crossing the border and fighting on the side of the
pro-Russian separatists in east Ukraine. There have also been some
reports of rebel groups fighting each other for control of their
individual regions.

The ground-to-air missile that brought down the helicopter may or may
not have been supplied by Russia. Ukraine itself is a manufacturer of
many kinds of weapons, so there are multiple possible sources where
the rebels could have obtained this weapon.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Ukraine is in a
generational Crisis era, which means that a spark could ignite a
conflict that spirals into a war. I'm particularly struck by how
often I hear the words "fascists" and "Nazis" used, evoking memories
of the bloody battles of World War II. The people who are using those
words have little or no memory of the horrors of the torture, rape and
mutilation that occurred in those battles. All they know is that
their side were the heroes, and the other side were the criminals, and
that it's finally time to even the score. BBC and Kyiv Post

****
**** Hamas and Fatah move to unified Palestinian government, as Israel objects
****

With last month's collapse of the Mideast "peace talks," the
Palestinians made it clear that they're going to go their own way.
This means, for example, applying to hundreds of United Nations
organizations as the State of Palestine.

On Thursday, the Palestinians announced the next step in their
plans. Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, and the
Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) announced that Rami Hamdallah,
who is considered to be a relatively non-ideological technocrat,
is to be the head of the new unity government, combining Hamas
and Fatah.

There were problems almost as soon as the announcements were made.
There were also supposed to be announcements of the entire unity
government cabinet, but they were postponed because of disagreements.
Fatah and Hamas were at war several years ago, and several subsequent
attempts at unity have collapsed because of hostility between the two.

If the Palestinians do succeed in forming a unity government, then
they'll face other problems. The U.S. and the EU identify Hamas as a
terrorist organization with a charter that includes the total
destruction of Israel. So Israel has said that they won't do business
with any government that includes Hamas. And U.S. law prohibits aid
to the Palestinians to benefit Hamas, "or any entity effectively
controlled by Hamas, any power-sharing government of which Hamas is a
member, or that results from an agreement with Hamas and over which
Hamas exercises undue influence."

If a unity government is actually successfully formed, then there will
be pressure within the EU to recognize the unity government. That
would certainly change the geopolitical landscape, but there are many
"if's" that will have to be faced before that point is reached.
Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and Jerusalem Post

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Russia, Chechnya,
Abkhazia, South Ossetia,
Hamas, Gaza, Fatah, Palestinian Authority

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*** 31-May-14 World View -- Japan's Shinzo Abe asserts Asian leadership against China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Russia finally pulls its troops back from Ukrainian border
• Japan's Shinzo Abe asserts Asian leadership against China
• The Chinese view of the 'China Threat'
• Nigeria blames Cameroon for failure to defeat Boko Haram

****
**** Russia finally pulls its troops back from Ukrainian border
****


A blood-stained icon of Jesus lies in blood-soaked shattered glass after a clash on Tuesday at Donetsk airport (Reuters)

When Russia moved 40,000 troops up to the border with Ukraine, it was
widely believed that a Russian invasion of Ukraine was imminent. The
invasion never happened, but there followed a series of game-playing
(intentional lying) episodes by Russia's president Vladimir Putin,
announcing that the troops were being pulled back, when in fact there
was no intention to pull them back.

But now, finally, Nato is confirming that about 2/3rds of the troops
have been pulled back, though thousands of Russian troops still
remain.

Even without an explicit invasion, the pullback does not indicate an
end to Russia's military intervention in Ukraine. Reports continue of
trucks laden with Russian and Chechen fighters and weapons traveling
across the border to support and supply the pro-Russian separatist
militias. Russia's "stealth invasion" indicates that further warfare
is to come. Washington Post and Australian Broadcasting

****
**** Japan's Shinzo Abe asserts Asian leadership against China
****

Speaking in Singapore on Friday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue on
Asian security issues, Japan's president Shinzo Abe said that Japan
will continue to be a pacifist state that makes great contributions to
global peace, and he expressed the intention for Japan to take a more
active part in guaranteeing peace and security throughout Asia.

However, the indicated that the way he's going to do that is to ally
with Vietnam and the Philippines to force international arbitration
over the territory that China plans to annex -- and indeed has already
annexed by military force in some cases.

<QUOTE>"What the world eagerly awaits is for our seas and our
skies to be places governed by rules, laws and established dispute
resolution procedures. The least desirable state of affairs is
having to fear that coercion and threats will take the place of
rules and laws, and that unexpected situations will arise at
arbitrary times and places."<END QUOTE>

This was a direct criticism of China, which is refusing to follow
international rules and established dispute resolution procedures.
China does not want to submit the disputes to a court, because China
would win some battles and would lose some battles. China is the
greedy tyrant that wants everything. That's why China was furious and
began taking revenge
against the
Philippines for appealing their disputes to the United Nations
Arbitral Tribunal. China has refused to cooperate with the Tribunal.

At Friday's conference, Abe said that Japan has provided ten patrol
boats to the Philippine Coast Guard, and that Japan is planning to do
the same for Vietnam as well.

A Chinese analyst says that Abe is playing with international law to
advance nationalistic goals:

<QUOTE>"Abe is going against the spirit of peace that is
fundamental to international law by using it as an excuse to move
in the opposite direction."<END QUOTE>

Japan Times and Xinhua

****
**** The Chinese view of the 'China Threat'
****

China's state-run news agency provides a very interesting analysis of
why they believe other countries see them as "evil or dangerous."
Here are some excerpts:

<QUOTE>"A tragic hostility is unfolding in Asia while Vietnam
and Japan, who share similar culture heritage with China, see
their neighbor much more like a thorn in their sides. After a
Vietnamese fishing boat deliberately entered Chinese waters and
collided in a kamikaze-style attack on a vessel protecting an oil
rig in China’s Xisha Islands on Monday, Hanoi blamed it on China
and quickly sought foreign aid to beef up its marine
patrol. Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe found this a good chance
for finger-pointing and eagerly dressed up Japan as a
counterweight to the growing influence of China. This is ironic.
Since his Liberal Democratic Party-led government took power at
the end of 2012, Abe has been upsetting Asia with his attempts to
reverting to militarism.

A good question is why has the term “China threat” been coined
rather than “Japan threat”? Here are three key reasons. Firstly,
China keeps emphasizing its special characteristics or differentia
from the other states, which creates mystery and makes it easily
depicted as an imaginary enemy. Still today, many Chinese sadly
find their national totem of the dragon and the red flag of the
country’s governing party, both majestic in the Chinese culture,
seen as evil or dangerous symbols in the West. Secondly, within a
few decades, China effectively eliminated poverty, and quickly
rose into the world’s second-largest economy. More disturbing is
the fact that all its economic achievements have been made under a
political system whose founders had aimed to eliminate capitalism.

Over the past few centuries, the world has been following the Law
of the Jungle: the strong get stronger while the weak get
weaker. Can China be so different from the previous powers in not
seeking hegemony? It is a question upsetting many people across
the world. Many of those who advocate containing China
involuntarily make an empirical judgment. It was too bad that
Japan was not stopped in the 1930s. So it is time to stop China
now, they say. But believe it or it, empiricism could be
wrong. China will never be a second Japan.

With a history of 5,000 years and incorporating diverse culture
that they have either created or had imposed on them, the Chinese
people have developed a unique perspective on the relationship
between man and nature as well as between state and state. Those
familiar with Chinese history know China was the world’s most
powerful state for a long period of time but it never colonized or
invaded any country. “However large a country is, bellicosity will
cause it to perish,” goes an old Chinese adage that still
resonates nowadays."<END QUOTE>

Xinhua

****
**** Nigeria blames Cameroon for failure to defeat Boko Haram
****

The 200+ schoolgirls abducted on April 16 by the terror group Boko
Haram in northeastern Nigeria have still not been recovered, and there
is no indication that they'll ever be recovered. Furthermore, since
the girls' abductions, over 500 civilians have been killed in multiple
terror attacks by Boko Haram. Nigeria has struck a deal with Niger to
allow its troops to cross the border in pursuit of Boko Haram, and is
discussing a similar deal with Chad. But Cameroon is refusing to make
such a deal, and Nigerian officials are accusing Cameroon of providing
a safe haven for Boko Haram terrorists:

<QUOTE>"Niger has been proactive and aggressive, Chad has
shown zero tolerance for Boko Haram. Cameroon, we've engaged them
to be more pro-active. They haven't really. Not yet."<END QUOTE>

However, Cameroon officials deny the allegations:

<QUOTE>"Cameroon has never been the weakest link in the
chain. As the deployment of troops and equipment in the past few
days prove, we have put up an iron curtain with enough firepower,
which Boko Haram cannot break."<END QUOTE>

Reuters


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin, Nato,
Japan, Shinzo Abe, Singapore, Shangri-La Dialog,
Vietnam, Philippines, China, U.N. Arbitral Tribunal,
Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Boko Haram

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*** 1-Jun-14 World View -- Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy
• Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea

****
**** Migrants from Syria and Africa flood into Italy
****


Boat with migrants fleeing from Libya (DW)

Over 3,500 migrants, including hundreds of women and children, as well
as many unattached children, arrived in Italy in a single day, as the
annual "migration season" begins to enter its peak period, thanks to
the warm weather. Some 43,000 migrants have arrived so far this year,
the same amount all of 2013. The migrants arrive from Syria
and North Africa, and most are believed to have started
crossing the Mediterranean Sea from Libya. According to
Italy's prime minister Matteo Renzi:

<QUOTE>"Europe has to call on the United Nations to intervene
in Libya and more generally it must show a capacity to manage the
immigration phenomenon."<END QUOTE>

Greece, Italy and Malta have repeatedly asked their fellow EU
countries for help in handling the large numbers of migrants.
Immigration was a major political issue in the recent elections for
European Parliament, where a number of anti-immigrant parties did
unexpectedly well. Deutsche Welle and Reuters

****
**** Hagel sets a 'red line' for China in South China Sea
****

As we reported yesterday, Japan's
president Shinzo Abe spoke on Friday at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue
in Singapore on Asian security issues. He announced enhanced military
relationships with Vietnam and the Philippines, and demanded that
China abide by international rules and laws, rather than coercion and
threats.

On Saturday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel gave a speech at
the same conference, and expressed approval of Abe's plan. Hagel also
made some harsh criticisms of China:

<QUOTE>"But in recent months, China has undertaken
destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the
South China Sea. It has restricted access to Scarborough Reef, put
pressure on the long-standing Philippine presence at the Second
Thomas Shoal, begun land reclamation activities at multiple
locations, and moved an oil rig into disputed waters near the
Paracel Islands.

The United States has been clear and consistent. We take no
position on competing territorial claims. But we firmly oppose any
nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to
assert those claims.

We also oppose any effort – by any nation – to restrict overflight
or freedom of navigation – whether from military or civilian
vessels, from countries big or small. The United States will not
look the other way when fundamental principles of the
international order are being challenged."<END QUOTE>

Now here's the problem: When Hagel says that the U.S. "will not look
the other way when fundamental principles of the international order
are being challenged," many people will not believe him. They
will remember the following:

• President Obama set a "red line" on chemical weapons in Syria,
  and flip-flopped when Syria's Bashar al-Assad started using them. In
  fact, al-Assad is now openly using chemical weapons in barrel bombs
  with complete impunity.
• Russia has annexed the Crimean Peninsula of Ukraine with
  impunity.
• China has already annexed several regions in the South
  China sea, with complete impunity.
• President Obama gave a foreign policy speech earlier this week
  credibly described, even by some Democrats, as a disastrously poor and
  incoherent speech, indicating a speaker with no clue what's going on
  in the world.

Now Hagel is setting another "red line." Does anyone really believe
that the U.S. will do anything but "look the other way"? The
following statement is attributed to Abraham Lincoln: "Better to
remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all
doubt." It seems that any time Hagel or President Obama or Secretary
of State John Kerry opens his mouth, he makes a fool of himself. It
would be better if they all followed Abraham Lincoln's advice and kept
their mouths shut.

China's Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong responded to Hagel's speech:

<QUOTE>"Secretary Hagel's speech is full of threats and
intimidating language. Secretary Hagel's speech is full of
encouragement, incitement for the Asia region's instability giving
rise to a disturbance. Secretary Hagel, in this kind of public
space with many people, openly criticized China without
reason. This accusation is completely without basis. ...

It was ... filled with instigation, threat and intimidation, which
wanted to incite the destabilizing factors of Asia-Pacific region
to stir up disputes."<END QUOTE>

Maj. Gen. Zhu Chenghu said that the "charges are "groundless," and
that:

<QUOTE>"[T]he Americans are making very, very important
strategic mistakes right now. ...

If you take China as an enemy, China will absolutely become the
enemy of the US. If the Americans take China as an enemy, we
Chinese have to take steps to make ourselves a qualified enemy of
the US. But if the Americans take China as a friend, China will be
a very loyal friend; and if they take China as a partner, China
will be a very cooperative partner."<END QUOTE>

Dept. of Defense and Economic Times and Russia Today


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Syria, Libya, Matteo Renzi,
Greece, Malta, Japan, Shinzo Abe, Vietnam, Philippines,
Chuck Hagel, Bashar al-Assad, Russia, Crimea, Ukraine,
Abraham Lincoln, China, Wang Guanzhong, Zhu Chenghu

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Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

WW2 is identified as a crisis war because of our willingness to fight against a correctly perceived existential threat, also Americas geopolitical position and social institutions were transformed by ww2. WW2 also resulted in demographic movements across the country that consolidated trends started during WW1. WW1 is not considered a crisis war because it did not alter our political institutions and was seen by a large chunk of the populace as "not being our war" even though mass also mobilization and casualties also occurred in WW1.

As I mentioned earlier there are numerous examples of a large-scale wars occurring in non-crisis periods, as well as crisis era wars lasting for years, if not decades. Take the French revolution as an example: when war broke out between france against Austria and Prussia in 1792 it quickly spiraled into what we call today "total war", there was mass mobilization of millions of able bodied citizens at the same time mass purges of groups perceived to be sympathetic to the enemy. Over 1 million soldiers were deployed and hundreds of thousands of war deaths occurred at the same time internal purges of entire regions seen as sympathetic to the enemy resulted in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of civilians, the vendee is an archetypical example for this period. Yet these war actions and atrocities had largely died down by about 1795. Even so only a generation later there was a similar mass mobilization of millions of soldiers and able-bodied citizens in the 1812-1815 period, nearly million soldiers were mobilized shortly before 1812 and a similar number mobilized in 1813. Toward the end of this later period plans to mobilize over 2.5 million soldiers out of a population of only 30 million to 40 million were put into action and weren't completed only because France had been defeated before these mobilizations could be fully carried out.

Another example is the Peloponnesian war in ancient Greece between Athens and Sparta. While the initial battles of the war were relatively small-scale, this was soon followed by the plague of Athens of 430-429 bc, the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians, the rapid replacement and/or death of those leaders who favored more cautious strategies in favor of younger leaders who favored "might is right" type approaches, continuous large scale campaigns from 429 BC to 422 BC when a peace treaty was signed. Even so, rather than move to preserve the peace for the next several generations, like what your theory implies should have followed; Events instead moved into a even more warlike direction, a new leader, Alcibiades rose to power and convinced the Athenians to restart the war by launching a massive invasion of Sicily, which was mostly allied with Sparta. This invasion was defeated after several large scale battles, even after this the war continued for 10 more years in which fleet after fleet was deployed by both sides and often were completely annihilated until the final defeat of Athens in 404 BC. Even so, this did not bring any lasting peace. Already by 403 BC political purges and massacres by the post-war regime in Athens had resulted in the deaths of thousands of citizens, and a revolution in which the city was taken by force by the revolutionaries. Another major war broke out in 395 BC in which armies consisting of tens of thousands of soldiers (a large number by ancient Greek standards) deployed against each other, there were also several large naval engagements as well, this new war, the Corinthian war ended around 387 BC. Yet in Sparta in particular neither the Peloponnesian war or the Corinthian war fundamentally transformed Spartan society, yet that state deployed armies continuously in both wars as well as in minor campaigns that also occurred in this period. A major war later did have a catastrophic transformational impact on Spartan society, but this was a war with another city state, Thebes, that broke out around 380 bc and encompassed the 370s and 360s bc. Yet this war wasn't even part of the crisis era at all, yet the social institutions of the nation of Sparta which had existed for hundreds of years were irreparably broken, the helots were freed and became and were organized into an independent city-state, several other independent nations were created to permanently contain Sparta and prevent any resurgence. Not only this but Thebes also was an major participant in the Peloponnesian and Corinthian wars as well as a participant in the skirmishes that preceded the Peloponnesian war. Even so Thebes as well as Athens a generation after this war, fought against Philip of Macedon's rise to power, and even after they had been defeated, Thebes later rebelled against Philip's son, alexander the great in a battle in which they fought to the bitter end and the city was later razed to the ground by the victors. As for Sparta, it refused to acknowledge Macedonian conquest and was basically left to wither on the vine, later when alexander the great's forces were fighting in their famous conquest of Persia, the Spartans invaded the city-state of megalopolis (one the independent states mentioned earlier as having been created to keep them contained) and was defeated in a large battle in which the defenders were reinforced by Macedonian forces. Athens to also fought against Macedon again in 323-322 BC.

You've written narratives to distinguish several crisis and non-crisis
wars. Here are some of the factors you've used to distinguish
them:

• "willingness to fight against a correctly perceived existential
  threat" -- I agree that this sounds like an important factor, but why
  not an "incorrectly perceived existential threat." Isn't the
  perception what makes the difference?
  
• "geopolitical position and social institutions were transformed by
  ww2" -- well, yeah, but there were massive changes after WW I -- the
  League of Nations, the Versailles Treaty, payment of reparations that
  transformed global finances. I'm not sure what you mean by "social
  institutions," but a lot of them were changed by the Vietnam war. In
  fact, "social institutions" are almost always changed by the Awakening
  climax.
  
• "WW I ... seen by a large chunk of the populace as 'not being our
  war'" -- What does that mean? I know that there were a lot of
  patriotic songs coming out of that era ("Send the word over there that
  the Yanks are coming, and we won't come back till it's over over
  there").
  
• "mass also mobilization and casualties also occurred in WW1" - so
  mass mobilization doesn't distinguish crisis wars either.
  
• "what we call today 'total war'" - I don't know what "total war"
  is, unless it's a synonym for "crisis war." Also, WW I was considered
  to be a "total war" -- and even "the war to end all wars."

During the 2003-2006 time period, there were many discussions of how
you distinguish what a crisis war is. A lot of the discussions were
between me and Mike Alexander. The typical pattern was that I'd
suggest something and Mike would shoot it down. Things like battle
deaths or mass mobilizations are often important indicators, but they
aren't definitive.

At this point, I've been doing this for 12 years, and I've examined
hundreds of these situations, maybe even thousands, and I can tell a
crisis war when I see it. I can read a historical description, and
feel that it "reads like" an Awakening era, or "reads like" an
Unraveling era or "reads like" a crisis war. Since there's intuition
involved, I often try to explain the reasoning when I write about it
in the World View columns. Some day, perhaps some one will go back
through all my web log articles for the last 12 years and compile a
list of reasons. Incidentally, Matt Ignal did a lot of work with
crisis wars when he was in this forum, and he had a fantastic natural
intuition about the subject. Matt and Nathaniel did a great job
analyzing crisis wars for countries around the world. Their work is
in the "Official 'Map Project' Thread":
http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/s...Project-Thread

You may find their discussion useful.

I wrote a lot about the Peloponnesian war in 2003 in my book. It's in
the Awakenings chapter:

** Chapter 7 -- Great Awakenings in World History
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...awakenings.htm

If you have a chance, please take a look at that chapter.

John

According to to the wikipedia biography, Chuck Hagel was born in 1946, in Nebraska. I believe that would make him an early wave Prophet.

*** 2-Jun-14 World View -- Prisoner swap deal infuriates many Afghans, 'big victory' for Taliban

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Taliban chief Mullah Omar calls prisoner swap a 'big victory'
• Many Afghans express anger at the release of the Taliban prisoners
• Abbas: Palestinian unity government will 'renounce violence' against Israel

****
**** Please resend e-mail messages
****

If you sent me an e-mail message on Thursday or Friday (May 29/30),
then I may not have received it due to a massive attack on the
e-mail servers for my web site. In that case, please resend.

****
**** Taliban chief Mullah Omar calls prisoner swap a 'big victory'
****


Mullah Mohammad Omar

The release of five high-level Taliban prisoners from Gitmo, in
exchange for U.S. soldier Bowe Bergdahl who has been held captive for
5 years, is being declared a "big victory" by the supreme leader of
the Afghan Taliban, Mullah Mohammad Omar:

<QUOTE>"I extend my heartfelt congratulations to the entire
Afghan Muslim nation, all the Mujahideen and to the families and
relatives of the prisoners for this big victory regarding the
release of five Taliban leaders from Guantanamo prison. ...

We shall thank almighty for this great victory. The sacrifice of
our Mujahedin have resulted in the release of our senior leaders
from the hand of the enemy. ...

I thank the government of Qatar, especially its emir Sheikh Tamim
bin Hamad (Al Thani), who made sincere efforts for release of
these leaders and for their mediation and for hosting
them. May Allah grant all of them with rewards"<END QUOTE>

The five Taliban prisoners had been officials in the Taliban regime
driven out by the US-led invasion of Afghanistan after the September
11, 2001, attacks. AFP and NBC

****
**** Many Afghans express anger at the release of the Taliban prisoners
****

Some Afghans are criticizing the release of five Taliban prisoners,
saying that they'll resume fighting within Afghanistan after the
U.S. troops leave.

According to the U.S. military, the five are "high risk," and were
implicated in the murder of thousands of Shia Muslims in Afghanistan.
The Taliban are militants within the Pashtun ethnic group, which is
Sunni Muslim. There is continuing sectarian tension throughout the
region, and the return of Taliban militants with a history of
slaughter of Shia Muslims is going to raise alarms.

According to one high school teacher living in Kabul:

<QUOTE>"This decision showed that the region, Afghanistan and
its people aren’t worth anything to American government.

Otherwise, why would they swap a useless army soldier who broke
the law with the five most dangerous Taliban
fighters?"<END QUOTE>

The phrase "broke the law" refers to the accusation that Bergdahl had
been captured in the first place because he abandoned his post, and
walked away from his military base with only a compass and a bottle of
water. Reuters

****
**** Abbas: Palestinian unity government will 'renounce violence' against Israel
****

Palestinians expect to form a new "unity government" with a press
conference scheduled for Monday afternoon. The unity government will
join Hamas, the governing authority in Gaza, with the Palestinian
Authority (PA/Fatah) for the first time since the factions went to war
in 2008.

The United States has not taken a public position on the reunification
of the two Palestinian groups, but on Sunday, US Secretary of State
John Kerry spoke by phone to PA president Mahmoud Abbas. In the phone
call, Abbas promised Kerry that the new unity government would
recognize Israel and renounce violence. Few people believe that this
promise will be kept.

Hamas is threatening to block Monday's announcement unless a number of
power-sharing issues are resolved. Previous attempts to form a unity
government have failed because of such issues. However, the
reunification has become a major international issue, and Hamas
officials are indicating that they'll go ahead with the announcement
despite their misgivings and expect to make changes later. Jerusalem Post and Gulf News


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Afghanistan, Taliban, Bowe Bergdahl,
Mullah Mohammad Omar,
Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas, Palestinian Authority, Israel

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Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

[*] "willingness to fight against a correctly perceived existential
threat" -- I agree that this sounds like an important factor, but why
not an "incorrectly perceived existential threat." Isn't the
perception what makes the difference?
[*] "geopolitical position and social institutions were transformed by
ww2" -- well, yeah, but there were massive changes after WW I -- the
League of Nations, the Versailles Treaty, payment of reparations that
transformed global finances. I'm not sure what you mean by "social
institutions," but a lot of them were changed by the Vietnam war. In
fact, "social institutions" are almost always changed by the Awakening
climax.

But most of the outstanding issues that sparked WW1 weren't solved by the Versailles treaty, The relative strength of Germany compared to Britain and France, and the desire of Germany to supplant Britain as premier power in Europe, The general belief that Europe was still the continent that "mattered" remained despite the rise of the US, USSR, and Japan. The Rivalry between Germany and Russia over eastern Europe remained, Italy's desire to become a "true great power" also persisted. These issues weren't solved until the climax of WW2.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I wrote a lot about the Peloponnesian war in 2003 in my book. It's in
the Awakenings chapter:

** Chapter 7 -- Great Awakenings in World History
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/...awakenings.htm

If you have a chance, please take a look at that chapter.

John

However Pericles who was either an artist or early prophet depending on whether one considers the battle of marathon 490 BC or the battles of salamis and Plataea 480 BC and 479 BC as ending the Persian war crisis, did try to maintain peace in Athens and elsewhere and devised a cautious battle strategy when the Peloponnesian war finally began, but he died toward the beginning of the war. Younger more aggressive leaders took over after 429 BC and waged continuous campaigns between 429 BC and 422 BC until the leaders of the war parties of the combatants had been killed; a peace treaty was signed in 421 BC. However, the rise of Alcibiades happened afterwards and it was Alcibiades who essentially restarted the war by 414 BC which continued until 404 BC. Yet it wasn't in his first attempt to restart the war that Alcibiades succeeded in reigniting the fires of war, it took several attempts to undermine the peace between 420 and 414 BC before he finally succeeded in restarting the war. During the war Sparta had many allies who joined with her because they did want to be part of Athens' empire. Yet after 404 BC these allies had turned against Sparta for the most part. In the Corinthian war of 395 BC to 386 BC these allies had even joined with the defeated Athens against Sparta. While Sparta retained its hegemony it now had to watch against its former allies, also Athens was once again a major power after having been marginalized in the aftermath of 404 BC. Later there was another war between mostly Sparta and Thebes starting around 380 BC and lasting all the way into the 360s BC, which ended Sparta's hegemony but also its great power status; not only that but several new states were created by the Theban forces specifically to contain Sparta as well as several new alliances and federations. Also Athens shifted its policy from being an enemy of Sparta to being an ally of Sparta during the later 370s BC to 360s BC. Here you have at least three massive geopolitical shifts between 404 BC and 362 BC, at least two major wars which when you factor in population size are of sufficient size to be considered "total wars", yet all of this had occurred after the crisis era had clearly come to an end, after 404 BC it is clearly not a crisis era at all. To use an analogy it was as if instead of the cold war, WW2 had been followed in quick succession by WW3 and WW4, all wrapping up by 1990. Regarding the Macedonian conquest 359 BC was not when the conquest happened, that year marked only the beginning of the Macedonian rise to hegemony, far more important was the battle of Chaeronea in 338 BC, the razing of Thebes in 335 BC, the conquests of alexander from 334 BC to 323 BC, and finally the Lamian War of 323 BC to 322 BC. Philip of Macedon's conquests seem to be unraveling events to me with Alexander's reign constituting the crisis, this crisis ending with the death of alexander and the Lamian war in 323 BC to 322 BC.

*** 3-Jun-14 World View -- Polio continues to flare in Nigeria and Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Spain's King abdicates as Catalonia moves to secession referendum
• Hamas leader resigns as Palestine unity government is announced
• Polio continues to flare in Nigeria and Pakistan

****
**** Spain's King abdicates as Catalonia moves to secession referendum
****


King Carlos poses in front of an elephant that he and his wife killed in Botswana in 2011

Spain's King Juan Carlos, is revered among older Spaniards for his
deft handling of Spain's transition to democracy after the death of
dictator Francisco Franco in 1975, and for putting down an attempted
army coup in 1981. But younger Spaniards see him as the man who went
on a lavish elephant-hunting trip in 2012 at the height of Spain's
financial crisis.

On Monday, King Carlos abdicated the throne:

<QUOTE>"We have felt the need for renovation, and to open up
a better future. Today a younger generation deserves to step
forward.

I want the best for Spain, to which I have dedicated my whole
life. I have decided to abdicate my crown to give way to a new
generation embodied by my son Felipe, heir to the throne. I keep
and will keep Spain forever deep in my heart."<END QUOTE>

Spanish Crown Prince Felipe and his wife, Princess Letizia. (EPA)

In the mid 2000s decade, Spain had one of the worst real estate
bubbles of any country in the world, and unemployment today is above
25%. Catalonia is holding on November 9 a referendum to vote on
seceding from Spain. The Spanish government considers the referendum
to be illegal, but it's going ahead anyway. It's hoped that the
ascension of Prince Felipe and his glamorous wife Princess Letizia to
the throne will help dull Catalonia's desire for independence.
AP and
Guardian (London)

****
**** Hamas leader resigns as Palestine unity government is announced
****

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas announced on Monday that
his organization (PA/Fatah) and its arch-enemy Hamas have joined into
a unity government. In a ceremony in Ramallah in the West Bank,
Abbas said:

<QUOTE>"Today, with the formation of a national consensus
government, we announce the end of a Palestinian division that has
greatly damaged our national case.

This black page in the history (of the Palestinians) has been
turned forever, and we will not allow it to come
back."<END QUOTE>

The Hamas charter demands the total destruction of Israel.
Abbas has promised that the new unity government will recognize
Israel and renounce violence, but this promise is not widely
believed.

However, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh dramatically announced his
resignation, so that he would not stand in the way of the
reunification agreement.

<QUOTE>"We're leaving the government, but not the
nation. We're leaving the ministries but not the question of the
nation."<END QUOTE>

It's thought that Haniyeh stepped down because Hamas is close to
bankruptcy. Since the Syrian war, Hamas has lost its main financial
sponsor, Iran. And Gaza is doubly blockaded, both by Israel and by
Egypt. So Haniyeh can continue doing whatever he wants, but just
won't be part of the unity government. The real test will occur when
Islamic Jihad, which is an independent terror group in Gaza that has
been arming for a future war with Israel, decides to launch a new
barrage of rockets into Israel. What will the unity government do
then? Gulf Today (UAE) and Times of Israel

****
**** Polio continues to flare in Nigeria and Pakistan
****

The terrorist group Boko Haram is responsible for thousands of deaths
through terrorist attacks in northeastern Nigeria, and is still
holding hundreds of kidnapped schoolgirls, possibly as sexual slaves.
But Boko Haram is posing an additional danger to Nigeria and the
entire region by making it almost impossible to administer polio
vaccines. The vaccination campaign has been forced to use so-called
"hit-and-runs," sending workers guarded by security officers into
insecure areas to quickly administer vaccines, and quickly escape.

Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan are the three remaining countries
where polio is endemic.

Pakistan has been a particular problem because the Taliban have been
murdering health care workers in Pakistan involved in polio providing
vaccines, ever since the administration bragged in 2011 that a
vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and
capture Osama bin Laden. Polio is spreading within Pakistan, and
travelers from Pakistan have been carrying the virus to other
countries, particularly China and the Mideast. The World Health
Organization (WHO) has announced a requirement that all Pakistanis
traveling abroad will be required to present a polio vaccination
certificate at the time departure, and those certificates became
mandatory on Sunday, June 1.
CBC and Dawn (Pakistan)



KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Spain, Catalonia, King Juan Carlos,
Francisco Franco, Prince Felipe, Princess Letizia,
Palestine, West Bank, Gaza, Mahmoud Abbas, Hamas,
Islamic Jihad, Ismail Haniyeh, Syria, Iran, Israel, Egypt,
Nigeria, Boko Haram, polio, Afghanistan, Pakistan
World Health Organization

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*** 4-Jun-14 World View -- Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• 'Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat'
• Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China
• Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus

****
**** 'Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat'
****


Homegrown jihadists are France's gravest threat (AFP)

On May 24, a gunman entered the Jewish Museum in Brussels and shot
three people dead, wounding a fourth. The perpetrator, Mehdi
Nemmouche, 29, was finally captured on Monday, June 1, at a train
station in Marseille. What has particular concerned French
prosecutors is that Nemmouche had been radicalized by the Islamic
Emirate in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) while spending a year fighting in
Syria.

According to France's prime minister Manuel Valls, France is now
increasing its estimate to 800 of the number of French people who have
fought or plan to fight in Syria, and he warned that they pose an
unprecedented security threat. According to Valls:

<QUOTE>"We have never before faced a challenge of this
kind. It is without any doubt the most serious threat we face.

We have to ensure the surveillance of hundreds and hundreds of
French or European individuals who are today fighting in
Syria."<END QUOTE>

Once again I'm repeating the point that I've been making now for well
over a year, that Syria has become an international magnet for
jihadists around the world, from places as far apart as Indonesia,
Pakistan, North Africa, France, Germany and Dagestan. Recent research
confirms that some 11,000 of these jihadists have flocked to Syria --
3,000 from Western Europe and 100 from America. These jihadists will
have no language or cultural problems when they return home, where
they will pose a terrorist threat. AFP
and BBC

****
**** Vietnam develops increasingly dangerous strategy to counter China
****

China's belligerent military actions in the South China Sea, annexing
regions that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia,
Indonesia and the Philippines, have drawn worldwide criticism, and
caused Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines to form a military alliance
to oppose China. The criticism is so sharp that a number of analysts
have openly questioned why the Chinese would act so belligerently, if
doing so incurred such criticism. These questions are extremely
naive, but here are the answers from the point of view of Generational
Dynamics:

• The Chinese people are nationalistic almost to the point of
  hysteria, and believe that their military can beat anyone, including
  the US.
  
• China is desperate for energy, and doesn't want to share South
  China Sea oil and gas deposits with anyone.
  
• The "China Dream" is to replace the US as the major power of the
  world, though the Chinese people want to do it with thuggery and
  conquest and not, as the US did, by simply taking responsibility for
  the well-being of other nations.
  
• The Chinese people hate the Vietnamese, Philippine and Japanese
  people. The feeling, incidentally, is mutual in each case.

Chinese actions towards the Vietnamese have been acts of war,
or pretty close. News reports of Chinese ships using water
cannons on Vietnamese ships seem to convey a benign impression.
But these water cannons are being directed at doing maximum
danger, to force the ships to return to port for repair. And
that's only part of it. Chinese ships have been ramming
smaller Vietnamese ships with the purpose of sinking them
or damaging them beyond repair.

According to unconfirmed reports, Vietnam is developing an
aggressive strategy to country Chinese belligerence. The
strategy develops in stages:

• Vietnam's Coast Guard maintains a continuous perimeter
  around China's armada, and broadcasts daily reassertions of
  Vietnamese sovereignty.
  
• Vietnam is considering legal action against China. This might
  take the form of support for the Philippines at the U.N. Arbitral
  Tribunal now in session.
  
• Vietnam's aim is to avoid a direct confrontation, but to deter
  China by creating circumstances where China would have to accept the
  status quo or escalate. On Vietnamese proposal is to conduct
  surveillance patrols and exercises jointly with the Philippines and
  Japan, so that China would have to attack three countries at once.
  These patrols would be accompanied by unarmed U.S. Nave maritime
  surveillance aircraft already stationed in the Philippines.
  
• Finally, a "mutually assured destruction" strategy to be applied
  only when relations with China have deteriorated to the point of armed
  conflict. Vietnam would launch ballistic missiles at China's merchant
  shipping and oil containers, with the objective of causing maximal
  psychological and economic damage. The next step would be to launch
  missiles at China's cities.

Once again, we have a strategy that's extremely naive. The strategy
is "creating circumstances where China would have to accept the status
quo or escalate." If this were 20 years ago, China would accept the
status quo. But today, given a choice between accepting the status quo
or escalating, China will escalate. And if Vietnam launches any
ballistic missile at any China asset or city, China will clobber
Vietnam, quickly spiraling into world war.

One way or another it's clear that Vietnam is not going to tolerate
much longer China's annexing of Vietnamese property and attacking and
crippling Vietnamese ships, without a substantially escalated
response. The Diplomat and People's Daily (Beijing)

****
**** Saudi Arabia reports significantly more deaths from MERS virus
****

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Health on Tuesday reported 282 people have
died from MERS-CoV (the Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome
coronavirus), a major increase from the previous official death toll
of 190. This is out of 688 total cases in Saudi Arabia. As happened
last year, concerns are growing that a major pandemic might begin
during the Hajj, when millions of Muslims from around the world arrive
in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, for their once in a lifetime pilgrimage. The
Hajj in 2014 is scheduled for October 2-7. CNN


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Brussels, Jewish Museum,
Mehdi Nemmouche, Syria, Manuel Valls,
Vietnam, China, South China Sea, Japan, Philippines,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus, MERS-CoV,
Saudi Arabia, Hajj, Mecca

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There is no oceanic moat to protect Vietnam...from invasion.

*** 5-Jun-14 World View -- History is repeating itself in China and Vietnam

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages
• Reader comments: History is repeating itself
• Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel

****
**** Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages
****


Aftermath of Boko Haram attack in May (AFP)

Boko Haram on Sunday attacked residents of Attagara, a village in
northeast Nigeria near the Cameroon border. Like many villages,
Attagara residents were frustrated by the impotence and helplessness
of the Nigerian army and security forces to protect them, so they
formed vigilante groups to defend themselves. On Sunday, the Attagara
vigilante groups immediately came out and retaliated, killing several
of the Boko Haram militants.

On Tuesday, men dressed in army uniforms arrived in Attagara with
about 200 motorcycles said they had arrived to protect the residents,
and asked the residents to gather in the church. Once they were all
inside, the men, who were militants in disguise, surrounded the
church, killed everyone, and burnt down the entire village.

In addition to having abducted almost 300 teenage schoolgirls who have
still not been recovered, and killing hundreds of civilians in
bombings, Boko Haram militants have taken control of dozens of
villages. Boko Haram is dividing Nigeria's public along religious
lines. The Christians believe that Muslims in general are complicit
with Boko Haram, while the Muslims believed that they're all being
unfairly blamed for the horrific actions of a terrorist gang. It's
believed that many soldiers in Nigeria's army also work for Boko
Haram, in order to supplement their pay. These fears appear to have
been confirmed on Wednesday, when Ten generals and five other senior
military officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providing
arms and information to Boko Haram extremists. AP and BBC and AP

****
**** Reader comments: History is repeating itself
****

The following are some reader comments to my last two articles:

From Trevor in the Generational Dynamics Forum:

<QUOTE>"One major thing that concerns me is that, indeed,
history is repeating itself once again. I've talked to numerous
people and realize that we are just as arrogant, just as
complacent, and just as unprepared for a major attack as we were
in 1941. With all the talk that China can't possibly threaten us,
we said something very similar- indeed, almost word for word-
against Japan, only to be proven completely wrong. Doing the same
thing against China would be even more disastrous yet it appears
likely.

Our current policy is assuming that war is a thing of the past,
that we'll never have to fight another ground war again, so why
bother preparing for it? Any comparisons I try to make about
similar mistakes in the past are shot down "We're more civilized
than that now" "Things are completely different" "We're so far
ahead of everyone else that we're in no danger". Of course, there
are others who like to say that any warning of China or anyone
else is all lies.

Sadly, pretty much everyone in office at the moment care more
about their political power, crushing their rivals, rewarding
their cronies, and screwing everyone else over than actually
attempting to do something about the very real threats we
currently face. Plenty of historians criticize our decision not to
mobilize and prepare for WWII sooner, but that's exactly what
we're doing today. Don't forget: winter is coming."<END QUOTE>

Alton Wang takes China's side in the BigPeace comments section:

<QUOTE>"You are correct in that these waters [South China
Sea] were indisputable for the past 2000 years, because China
owned them, and Viet Nam never said anything, perhaps because Viet
Nam itself was subsidiary to China and relied on Chinese troops to
fight against the French and the Americans as well. Your own prime
minister Pham Van Dong actually acknowledged Chinese ownership to
these waters too. Now all of a sudden you are claiming
sovereignty? Now who's attempting to change the status quo
here?<END QUOTE>

A response from Henry Nguyen, who takes Vietnam's side in the same
BigPeace comments section:

<QUOTE>"Vietnam said nothing because they already developed
and lived on these islands for 400 years. Vietnam was fighting the
French for 100 years until China started helping. Whatever those
helps were, eventually cancelled by Chinese invasion in 1979. PM
Pham Van Dong did not acknowledge Chinese ownership (google and
read again) and even if he did, as PM of North Vietnam he had no
power to give away what controlled by the South. Research for
facts and stop relying on Chinese distortions: Vietnam 1st sent
naval troops to these islands to map, build storm shelters, plant
trees, collect shipwrecks and valuables since early 1,600's. In
fact, all Chinese occupations in Paracels and Spratlys today,
resulted from invasions of Vietnamese presence."<END QUOTE>

Here's another question, from Thucydides in the Generational Dynamics
Forum, regarding some technical questions about how generational
theory applies to Vietnam, in view of the fact that Vietnam's last
generational crisis war was the 1970s war between North and South
Vietnam, in which the U.S. sided with the South and lost:

<QUOTE>"It appears to me that Vietnam is behaving rather odd
for a country in a generational awakening era. The governing
officials that are provoking China are from the older generation
that remembers the Vietnam war. Does generational dynamics predict
that they will back down rather than risk an unwinnable war? Or is
it possible that a country in a generational awakening era can
allow things to escalate into a war that it is predestined to
loose?"<END QUOTE>

Keep in mind that the U.S. didn't back down from the Korean, Vietnam
and Iraq wars. The political justifications for these wars came out of
WW II -- act as policeman of the world to prevent another world war.

Vietnam is in a generational Awakening era. Vietnam beat the U.S.,
then beat China in a brief war, and my guess is that they're thinking
that they can beat the Chinese again in some way. It would be
interesting to understand exactly what thought process the Vietnamese
leaders are going through these days. They may believe that even if
China can beat them, they'll still inflict enough damage on the
Chinese that it won't be worth it to them. That would be consistent
with the likely view of the victories over the U.S. and China. They
wore down the U.S., and they may have decided that they can wear down
China too. Generational Dynamics forum and BigPeace comments and GD forum

****
**** Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel
****

Nathan G, a student in the Generational Dynamics forum, has done some
research to establish a generational timeline for generations of
ancient Palestine/Israel. He points out that several issues arise
because of conflicts of chronologies (Was the Exodus in the 15th or
13th century BC? Did David rule in the 11th or 10th century BC?).
However, this is a good starting point to identify generational crisis
wars in those centuries, and serve as a basis for more research:

Ancient Israel/Palestine generational crisis list:

• Conquest of Canaan, 1455-1448 BC (Book of Joshua)
• Invasion of Moab under Eglon, 1346-1328 BC (Judges 3)
• War with Midian, 1255-1248 BC (Judges 6-8)
• War with Amorites, 1192-1174 BC (Judges 10-11)
• Civil war with Benjamin, 1119-1112 BC (Judges 17-21) [? not sure about this one?]
• Civil war between David and Saul, 1063-1059 BC (1 Samuel 19-21)
• War between Israel and Judah, 979-954 BC (1 Kings 11-15) [Pharaoh Shishak also invaded in 974 BC]
• War with Syria/Coup of Jehu, 890-886 BC (2 Kings 6-9)
• War with Syria and Edom, c.830-825 BC (2 Kings 13-14)
• Destruction of Israel by Assyria, 740-722 BC (2 Kings 17-18)
• Capture of Manasseh by Assyrians, c.650 BC (2 Kings 21)
• Captivity of the Jews by Nebuchadnezzar, 592-584 BC (2 Kings 24-25)
• Persecution of the Jews under Xerxes, 474 BC (Book of Esther)
• Persecution under Artaxerxes II, c.400 BC (implied in 3 Esdras?)
• Syrian Wars by the Ptolemies, 301-274 BC (1 Maccabees 1)
• Hasmonean Revolt, 170-162 BC (Books of Maccabees)
• Pompey's invasion of Syria, 68 BC (Josephus) [Later Roman invasions in 53 and 37 BC]
• Revolts after Herod I, 2-7 AD (ibid.)
• Jewish-Roman War, 66-72 AD
• Bar-Khoba revolt, 135 AD

Jesus himself was in the same generational archetype as today's
Boomers, and he was an extremely charismatic Alinsky-style 1960s-style
activist, just like the Boomers. That's why he caused so many
headaches for the Romans and the money changers, and why they had to
get revenge. Generational Dynamics forum


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Nigeria, Attagara, Boko Haram
China, Vietnam, South China Sea, Ancient Palestine, Israel

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*** 6-Jun-14 World View -- Indonesia increases defense spending to combat China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Indonesia increases defense spending to combat China
• Eurozone moves to negative interest rates to fight deflation
• Dept of Homeland Security seeks a 'sarcasm detector'

****
**** Indonesia increases defense spending to combat China
****


Chinese destroyer Haribing

Of the nations (Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the
Philippines) whose sovereign territory China is annexing via military
force, Indonesia has tried to stay out of the disputes with China, and
to concentrate on its own internal problems -- internal terrorist
attacks, and separatist movements.

But now China's growing belligerence is causing Indonesia to shift
strategies. According to one analyst,

<QUOTE>"The focus in defense spending is moving to dealing
with external threats. There is a concern from an Indonesian
perspective that the South China Sea should not become a Chinese
lake and that freedom of shipping should be
maintained."<END QUOTE>

Indonesia has some 17,000 islands to police, stretched across 5,300
kilometers (3,293 miles) from east to west. The Malacca Strait that
Indonesia shares with Malaysia is a key shipping lane that links the
economies of countries such as India, China and Japan. Bloomberg and National Interest

****
**** Eurozone moves to negative interest rates to fight deflation
****

With four euro zone countries -- Slovakia, Portugal, Greece and Cyprus
-- now in deflation , the European
Central Bank (ECB) took the desperate step of setting the "deposit
rate" to a negative interest rate, -0.1%. The "deposit rate" is the
interest rate that a regional bank receives when it deposits money in
the ECB. If the interest rate goes negative, it means that a regional
bank must pay the ECB to hold its deposit. The purpose of the move is
to incentive regional banks to lend money out to other businesses,
rather than depositing it in the ECB.

Few analysts believe that this interest rate reduction will make much
difference. For that reason, ECB president Mario Draghi has announced
that quantitative easing is being discussed. The United States
"prints" $55 billion per month in quantitative easing to increase the
stock market bubble. Business Insider and Bloomberg

****
**** Dept of Homeland Security seeks a 'sarcasm detector'
****

The Dept. of Homeland Security Secret Service has issued a
solicitation for a "Social Media Software Analytics Tool," commercial
software that will automate the process of monitoring social media,
detect statistical patterns in real time, and visually present the
data clearly and concisely. Among the required capabilities, the
software must have the "Ability to detect sarcasm and false
positives." So if someone sends out a tweet threatening to kill
someone, the software has to be able to tell whether the tweet is a
joke or not. What could go wrong with that? Engadget and Federal Business Opportunities


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Indonesia, China, South China Sea,
European Central Bank, ECB, Mario Draghi,
Department of Homeland Security, Secret Service

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*** 7-Jun-14 World View -- Pentagon issues annual report on China's military

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Pentagon issues annual report on China's military
• Al-Sisi's election as Egypt's president tainted by low turnout
• Former ambassador to Syria harshly criticizes Obama's policies

****
**** Pentagon issues annual report on China's military
****


Chinese soldier in live-fire air defense exercise in 2010 (AP)

China is developing a new long-range intercontinental ballistic
missile with multiple nuclear warheads as part of a large-scale
military buildup, according to the "Annual Report to Congress:
Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of
China."

The so-called MIRV (multiple independently targetable re-entry
vehicles) missile will carry with it up to ten additional missiles
with nuclear warheads, so that a single MIRV missile can strike up to
ten different targets with nuclear missiles. China is developing
these MIRV weapons in order to be able to overwhelm U.S. missile
defenses in a war against the United States.

China has deployed a number of nuclear missile systems, including
missiles that can be launched from submarines or from land, and which
are specifically designed to target American cities, military bases
and aircraft carriers.

China has also deployed thousands of short and medium range missiles
for use in striking Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, or any other
nation that challenges its annexation of other countries' sovereign
regions in the South and East China Seas.

According to the report, China "is investing heavily in its ground
force, emphasizing the ability to deploy campaign-level forces across
long distances quickly. This modernization is playing out with
wide-scale restructuring of PLA ground forces that includes a more
rapid, flexible special operations force equipped with advanced
technology; improved army aviation units using helicopters armed with
precision- guided munitions; and C2 capabilities with improved
networks providing real-time data sharing within and between units."
These capabilities will be used in attacks on China's neighbors,
including Taiwan, and potentially for introducing ground forces into a
United States crippled by a barrage of missile attacks.

According to the report's summary:

<QUOTE>"Although the dialogue between the United States and
China is improving, outstanding questions remain about the rate of
growth in China's military expenditures due to the lack of
transparency regarding China's intentions. In 2013, China
announced a 5.7 percent increase in its annual military budget to
$119.5 billion, continuing more than two decades of sustained
annual defense spending increases. China sustained its investments
in strategic forces modernization, as well as key anti-access /
area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities such as advanced intermediate-
and medium-range conventional ballistic missiles, long-range
land-attack and anti-ship cruise missiles, counter-space weapons,
and offensive cyber capabilities. China's military investments
provide it with a growing ability to project power at increasingly
longer ranges."<END QUOTE>

The Obama administration has gone out of its way to avoid portraying
China as an enemy, but according to one expert on China's military:

<QUOTE>"The 2014 Pentagon PLA report has come a long way to
presenting a more useful listing of China’s military direction.

But it is now time for this report to take the next step. It
needs to become an illustrated book translated into multiple
languages. This document defines the Chinese military’s trajectory
more than any other statement by any other country — which is why
the Chinese government hates it and wants to shut it
down."<END QUOTE>

Indeed, China very bitterly denounced the Pentagon report. According
to China's Foreign Ministry, China has always adhered to the path of
peaceful development, pursued a defense policy which is defensive in
nature and become a staunch force in safeguarding peace and stability
in Asia-Pacific region and the world:

<QUOTE>"China's military buildup is completely aimed at
safeguarding the country's independence, sovereignty and
territorial integrity and is part of the country's justified
rights."<END QUOTE>

As we see more and more in the South China Sea, China's view of
adhering to "peaceful development" is to annex other nation's
territories, and by "safeguarding peace and stability" it means that
anyone who does not do as China demands gets killed. U.S. Dept. of Defense and Free Beacon and Xinhua (Beijing)

****
**** Al-Sisi's election as Egypt's president tainted by low turnout
****

A year ago, army chief Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi staged a coup and
overthrew Mohamed Morsi, the only democratically elected president in
Egypt's history, along with his Muslim Brotherhood government. After
leaving the army, al-Sisi won his own election to president on May 28,
with a landslide 96.9% of the vote. In contrast to Morsi's elections,
many observers consider al-Sisi's election to be fraudulent, since
thousands of Muslim Brotherhood supporters have been killed or jailed,
and in fact anyone who advocated voting against al-Sisi risked being
beaten or jailed.

Now al-Sisi's opponents are calling the election a fiasco because of
low voter turnout. The government is claiming 47.5% voter turnout,
but it was obviously from live pictures carried by BBC and CNN of
deserted polling places on election day that this figure is way too
high. The Muslim Brotherhood is gleefully claiming that turnout was
no higher than 12%, based on data that they collected on election day.

Egyptian authorities took many desperate measures to increase
the voter turnout, after the low turnout on the first day of
the election. The election had been scheduled to run two days,
but it was extended to a third day. A national holiday was
declared, and popular artists recorded songs for YouTube
encouraging people to vote.

Just as anyone who disagrees with President Obama's policies
is labeled a "racist," the pro-al-Sisi media is blaming
"terrorists" in the Muslim Brotherhood for preventing
people from voting.

However, others in the pro-al-Sisi media are blaming al-Sisi
himself:

• His failure to set out a proper election platform;
• His failure to actually venture out among the people during his
  campaign;
• His suppression of revolutionary youth movements, such as the
  April 6 Movement that he outlawed;
• His implementation of policies that contradict the people's
  demands and their aspirations to democracy;
• The reemergence of associates on the political landscape of former
  dictator Hosni Mubarak
• A poorly timed end to subsidies and an increase in prices;
• And the reemergence of the use of the media for spreading
  pro-Al-Sisi propaganda.

According to one columnist:

<QUOTE>"At this time, many young people are prosecuted,
thrown in prison, and heavily fined [under the regime's protest
law]. It is astonishing that after this, the current Mubarak-esque
government expects these young people – the nation's work force –
to labor, to produce, and to vote..."<END QUOTE>

Another columnist pointed out:

<QUOTE>"Field Marshall 'Abd Al-Fatah Al-Sisi must realize –
and I believe he does – that his job, his aspirations, and his
political dimensions are completely different now than they were
before the election. He must realize that the popular rage is much
greater than [just] that of the MB, and that the attempts to
excuse every crisis by [blaming] terrorism in order to cover up
political incompetence will no longer be convincing to the
millions of Egyptian citizens."<END QUOTE>

Memri

****
**** Former ambassador to Syria harshly criticizes Obama's policies
****

Robert Ford served for three years as President Obama's ambassador to
Syria, before resigning two months ago. Now he's saying that the
reason he resigned is that he could no longer defend the
U.S. administrations policies with respect to Syria. According to
Ford:

<QUOTE>"We need - and we have long needed - to help moderates
in the Syrian opposition with both weapons and other non-lethal
assistance.

Had we done that a couple of years ago, had we ramped it up,
frankly the al Qaeda groups that have been winning adherents would
have been unable to compete with the moderates who frankly we have
much in common with.

[While Russia and especially Iran are massively increasing their
assistance to Assad,] our policy was not evolving and finally I
got to a point where I could no longer defend it
publicly."<END QUOTE>

In an interview on BBC on Friday, Ford explained that President
Obama's policies have permitted al-Qaeda linked jihadists to gain
strength in Syria. Ford was particularly critical of Obama's
flip-flop last year, when Syria's president Bashar al-Assad crossed
Obama's "red line" and used sarin gas to kill people, and Obama did
nothing about it after saying that al-Assad would "face consequences."
According to Ford, moderate opposition Syrians were so angered and
discouraged by Obama's flip-flop that they joined jihadists groups
because that was only possible way they could continue fighting
al-Assad. According to Ford:

<QUOTE>"We need - and we have long needed - to help moderates
in the Syrian opposition with both weapons and other non-lethal
assistance. Had we done that a couple of years ago, had we ramped
it up, frankly the al Qaeda groups that have been winning
adherents would have been unable to compete with the moderates who
frankly we have much in common with."<END QUOTE>

These views will be no surprise to regular World View readers, but
it's unusual for an ambassador to be so critical of a President so
soon after resigning. Reuters and NPR


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Pentagon, China, MIRV,
Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood, Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Robert Ford, Iran, Russia

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Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> But most of the outstanding issues that sparked WW1 weren't solved
> by the Versailles treaty, The relative strength of Germany
> compared to Britain and France, and the desire of Germany to
> supplant Britain as premier power in Europe, The general belief
> that Europe was still the continent that "mattered" remained
> despite the rise of the US, USSR, and Japan. The Rivalry between
> Germany and Russia over eastern Europe remained, Italy's desire to
> become a "true great power" also persisted. These issues weren't
> solved until the climax of WW2.

So now you're proposing an additional, entirely new criterion to
"prove" that WW I was a non-crisis war: "outstanding issues that
'mattered' weren't solved."

That criterion is pretty vague, and it applies equally to WW II. The
rivalry between the West and Russia over eastern Europe was hardly
resolved by WW II, for example. As another example, WW II ended
France's Third Republic, but didn't solve France's problems, because
the Fourth Republic only lasted 12 years. So lots of problems
and issues were left unresolved by WW II.

On the other hand, the Vietnam war resolved some things. Nixon had to
resign, and the American public adopted the "Vietnam syndrome,"
which was an antithesis to the Truman Doctrine.

I think it's pretty safe to say that every war resolves some problems,
and leaves other problems unresolved. It's necessary to figure out a
way to determine which problems "matter," and which do not.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> However Pericles who was either an artist or early prophet
> depending on whether one considers the battle of marathon 490 BC
> or the battles of salamis and Plataea 480 BC and 479 BC as ending
> the Persian war crisis, did try to maintain peace in Athens and
> elsewhere and devised a cautious battle strategy when the
> Peloponnesian war finally began, but he died toward the beginning
> of the war. Younger more aggressive leaders took over after 429 BC
> and waged continuous campaigns between 429 BC and 422 BC until the
> leaders of the war parties of the combatants had been killed; a
> peace treaty was signed in 421 BC. However, the rise of Alcibiades
> happened afterwards and it was Alcibiades who essentially
> restarted the war by 414 BC which continued until 404 BC. ...
> ... ... ...

I'm going to have to defer to your superior knowledge of the details
of ancient Greek wars.

Let me just ask you this: In your opinion, was the Golden Age
of Greece an Awakening/Unraveling period between two crisis
wars, as I aver?

John

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

So now you're proposing an additional, entirely new criterion to
"prove" that WW I was a non-crisis war: "outstanding issues that
'mattered' weren't solved."

That criterion is pretty vague, and it applies equally to WW II. The
rivalry between the West and Russia over eastern Europe was hardly
resolved by WW II, for example. As another example, WW II ended
France's Third Republic, but didn't solve France's problems, because
the Fourth Republic only lasted 12 years. So lots of problems
and issues were left unresolved by WW II.

There were no tensions between the west and Russia over eastern Europe before WW2. The rivalry before WW2 was between GERMANY and Russia. This was resolved by WW2, because after ww2 Germany was no longer an independent power

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

On the other hand, the Vietnam war resolved some things. Nixon had to
resign, and the American public adopted the "Vietnam syndrome,"
which was an antithesis to the Truman Doctrine.

I think it's pretty safe to say that every war resolves some problems,
and leaves other problems unresolved. It's necessary to figure out a
way to determine which problems "matter," and which do not.

Vietnam Syndrome died on 9/11/2001.

Originally Posted by John J. Xenakis

I'm going to have to defer to your superior knowledge of the details
of ancient Greek wars.

Let me just ask you this: In your opinion, was the Golden Age
of Greece an Awakening/Unraveling period between two crisis
wars, as I aver?

John

Yes but my question primarily concerned the Peloponnesian war itself and the saeculum that followed the war, not the one that preceded it. In that saeculum there is no examples whatsoever of a peaceful awakening. The only real example of awakening behavior that could be found is Epaminondas liberation of the helots. But that involved a massive war involving Thebes, Athens and Sparta.

With regard to china: If china is a massive threat, it must be noted that the degree of existential threat would be much greater for nations in closer geographical proximity to china than there would be for nations further away. Hence a person in Vladivostok and Irkutsk, or Nagasaki is in much greater danger of being conquered by china, than a person in Las Vegas or salt lake. The US should prioritize is marine corps, navy and missile defense to counter china, more than the regular army. In WW2 in which Germany was initially going against relatively undefended adversaries, the Nazis overrun all of western Europe yet could not overrun an relatively undefended Britain, even though Nazi forces were only 20 miles from British territory at certain locations; the reason for that is that fact that the English channel separates Britain from continental Europe.If china's going to focus on building it up its regular ground armies, and remember the Chinese marine corps equivalent, like that of the US is considered an extension of the navy, not the army. That means if china has aggressive intent, it will most likely move north, south and southwest if it attacks, not southeast; this is because the regular army would largely be useless in a southeast direction war, especially one involving nuclear weapons, because those armies would have already have been targeted by the opponents nuclear forces. There is an large region in china's proximity that such a ground force makes sense for being used against and that any sufficiently prepared Chinese force should be relatively successful in overrunning and securing, that region borders china in an over 2000 mile long border; Siberia.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

> Yes but my question primarily concerned the Peloponnesian war
> itself and the saeculum that followed the war, not the one that
> preceded it. In that saeculum there is no examples whatsoever of a
> peaceful awakening. The only real example of awakening behavior
> that could be found is Epaminondas liberation of the helots. But
> that involved a massive war involving Thebes, Athens and
> Sparta.

I'm not sure what you mean by a "peaceful awakening." We had our
Vietnam War.

I googled "Peloponnesian War aftermath", and ended up at reading
chapters 14-16 of the book "Thomas R. Martin, An Overview of Classical
Greek History from Mycenae to Alexander":

http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/...3Achapter%3D14
http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/...3Achapter%3D15
http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/...3Achapter%3D16

This was a fascinating narrative, and it seems to me that it completely
follows the generational saeculum pattern for Athens.

There was the Peloponnesian War, 431-404 BC.

Then there was the Recovery Era: Getting rid of the Thirty Tyrants,
rebuilding the walls to Piraeus.

Then there were the Awakening and Unraveling Eras, a flowering of
philosophy and science, led by Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. There
were a couple of wars during this period, but they were very clearly
non-crisis wars of little long-term consequence to Athens.

The Crisis Era begins officially in 404-58 = 346 BC. The blowhard
Demosthenes convinced Athens to form a coalition opposing King Philip
of Macedonia. The resulting war climaxed with the historic Battle of
Chaeronea in 338 BC.

It seems to me that it's really a very clearcut case of a generational
saeculum.

Chaeronea seems to me to be the beginning of the crisis. If you have a Questia.com account there is a good book called "The history of the Greek world 479 to 323 BC". The razing of Thebes and the conquests of alexander seem to me to be far more important, and to constitute the crisis era. Demosthenes retained his influence even after Chaeronea, it was not until the Lamian War of 323-322 BC that he lost his influence on greek politics, and was forced to commit suicide. Also there was no change of government in Athens after Chaeronea but there was a forced change to the Macedonian model after the Lamian war. There is also the question of the massive wars between Sparta and Thebes from 404 BC. to 362 BC. Both were major participants in the earlier Peloponnesian war, in fact the first major military operation of the war was a Theban surprise attack on the Athenian ally of Plataea, Thebes also repulse a large-scale Athenian invasion in 424 BC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demosthenes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamian_War

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Chaeronea seems to me to be the beginning of the crisis. If you have a Questia.com account there is a good book called "The history of the Greek world 479 to 323 BC". The razing of Thebes and the conquests of alexander seem to me to be far more important, and to constitute the crisis era. Demosthenes retained his influence even after Chaeronea, it was not until the Lamian War of 323-322 BC that he lost his influence on greek politics, and was forced to commit suicide. Also there was no change of government in Athens after Chaeronea but there was a forced change to the Macedonian model after the Lamian war. There is also the question of the massive wars between Sparta and Thebes from 404 BC. to 362 BC. Both were major participants in the earlier Peloponnesian war, in fact the first major military operation of the war was a Theban surprise attack on the Athenian ally of Plataea, Thebes also repulse a large-scale Athenian invasion in 424 BC.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demosthenes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamian_War

I was going by this paragraph, which calls the battle of Chaeronea "a
decisive turning point in Greek history":

Originally Posted by Thomas R. Martin

> The Aftermath of the Battle of Chaeronea

> The course of later history proved the battle of Chaeronea in 338,
> in which Philip of Macedon and his Greek allies defeated a
> coalition of other Greek states, to have been a decisive turning
> point in Greek history: never again would the states of Greece
> make foreign policy for themselves without considering, and
> usually following, the wishes of outside powers. This change
> marked the end of the Greek city-states as independent actors in
> international politics, but they were to retain their significance
> as the basic economic and social units of the Greek world. But
> that role would be fulfilled from now on as subjects or allies of
> the new kingdoms that later emerged from the Macedonian kingdom of
> Philip and his son Alexander after the latter's death in 323
> B.C. The Hellenistic kingdoms, as these new monarchies are called,
> like the Roman provinces that in turn eventually replaced them as
> political masters of the Greeks, depended on the local leaders of
> the Greek city-states to collect taxes for the imperial treasuries
> and to insure the loyalty and order of the rest of the citizens.
>

Your description of the conquests of Alexander does make it look like
323 was the crisis war climax, and Chaeronea may well have been a
Regeneracy event that began the crisis war. But have you considered
one other possibility? It's likely that Macedonia and Athens were on
different timelines up till then anyway, so is it possible that the
338 defeat was a climax for Greece, while 323 was the climax for
Macedonia?

However, the introduction to Martin's book contains this:

Originally Posted by Thomas R. Martin

> The overview ends where it does because 323 has traditionally been
> identified as the end of the Classical period in ancient Greek
> history. After this date the monarchies founded by Alexander's
> successors tended to overshadow or even dominate the city-states
> in international politics. The significance of 323 as a turning
> point in Greek history is in fact just as problematic on several
> grounds as is the history of the Trojan War, but at least ending
> the Overview at this conventional date allows the survey to
> conclude roughly in the period of the life of the fourth-century
> philosopher and polymath Aristotle (died 322), who tutored the
> young Alexander for a while.

So that would indeed imply that 323 was the climactic date for
Greece's city-states, as you say.

But the crisis climax for the defeated nation usually results in a regime change and the end the nations traditional foreign policy. Athens kept its regime and system of government after 338 BC however after 323-322 war it's system of government was forcibly replaced and their leaders executed or exiled. Also the Athenian colony of Samos which was reestablished in 366 BC after being lost in the Peloponnesian war was annexed by Macedon after 322 BC.

*** 8-Jun-14 World View -- Russia forced to change tactics after Ukraine's election

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Ukraine's new president promises peace in a united Ukraine
• Russia forced to change tactics after Ukraine's election
• Jihadist violence across Iraq continues to grow

****
**** Ukraine's new president promises peace in a united Ukraine
****


Petro Poroshenko lights a candle in St. Sophia Cathedral after his inauguration in Kiev on Saturday (AP)

Petro Poroshenko, who was elected president of Ukraine on May 25,
promised to reunite Ukraine in peace in his inauguration speech on
Saturday. He said, "I am calling on everyone who has taken arms in
their hands — please lay down your arms," and he promised amnesty "for
those who do not have blood on their hands." He insisted that the
Crimean peninsula "was, is and will be Ukrainian," although he did not
indicate how Ukraine can regain control of Crimea.

Poroshenko has spoken recently with Russia's president Vladimir Putin,
and apparently they've known each other for a long time, as
Poroshenko's candy empire does a lot of business in Russia.
Poroshenko promised in his speech that he would open a corridor of
"safe passage" to Russia, something that Russia had demanded in the
U.N. Security Council, and Putin appeared to respond by ordering
tightened security along the border to prevent illegal crossings.

Pro-Russian rebel leaders in the east dismissed Poroshenko’s speech.
A rebel leader, Denis Pushilin, said, "At the moment it’s impossible
for him to come (to Donetsk for talks). Perhaps with security, a
group, so people won’t tear him to pieces." AP and Bloomberg

****
**** Russia forced to change tactics after Ukraine's election
****

Polls have indicated for some time that even the Russians living in
eastern Ukraine do not want eastern Ukraine to be part of Russia. After
the revolution that ousted pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich,
replacing him with an interim government Kiev, most of these same
Russians don't like or trust the Kiev government either.

But according to James Sherr, Ukraine specialist from London think
tank Chatham House, the election of Petro Poroshenko is changing some
minds, and improving the prospects for Ukraine. At the same time,
Vladimir Putin and the Russians are forced to change tactics. This is
my transcription of his interview on BBC:

<QUOTE>"[Saturday's inauguration speech] was crucial. I
think with this speech Ukraine is now clearly back in the center
of its drama, and Poroshenko has projected an image of someone who
can take Ukraine into the future. This was a very purposeful,
positive and realistic speech, and it's done something very
important in Ukraine where, for months, there has been an interim
government, a lot of indirection and uncertainty, and in the west
the preoccupation for months has been almost exclusively on
Russia, and if Ukraine has any image at all, it's been largely
negative. So coming on top of these very impressive elections
with this very high turnout on the 25th of May, I think this is
now presenting a very different image, and it helps to establish a
different dynamics. ...

He's reaching out to his own country's well-being, and it's
important to bear in mind when you talk about separatism in the
east, we're talking about activity in two eastern regions, out of
six. And if you look at the eastern and southern parts of
Ukraine, which are predominantly Russian speaking -- that's nine
regions. And in only two, and at that only parts of two, are the
separatists pretty firmly in control. So that context has to be
borne in mind.

The Russians' tactics are rapidly adjusting. When the Russians
started this whole enterprise in eastern Ukraine, they expected
that the citizen population living there would rise up in their
support. And that has not happened. We had hundreds of thousands
of people on the street in Kiev [referring to the original
protests in December], you have not have that in Dnetsk and
Luhansk -- the fighters have been supported by at most crowds of
hundreds, and at most a few thousands.

So they started changing tactics then. And I think the election
itself has been a further blow to them. Their preoccupation still
is to get Western acquiescence in an overall deal that will
federalize Ukraine in such a way that the regions it partially
controls will not only have autonomy, but have veto power over the
central government itself. That's what they mean by
federalization. It has no resemblance to what the term means in
any other country in the world. I think that's understood inside
the EU. It's certainly understood by president
Poroshenko."<END QUOTE>

****
**** Jihadist violence across Iraq continues to grow
****

Iraqi officials have been caught by surprise at the size of three days
of attacks across the country by the jihadist group Islamic Emirate in
Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Gunmen attacked city buildings and
neighborhood in Samarra on Thursday, and gunmen and suicide bombers
attacked the northern city of Mosul on Friday. On Saturday, jihadists
attack Anbar University in the Iraq city of Ramadi, killing the guards
and blowing up a bridge leading to the school. Iraqi special forces
launched a counterattack to retake the campus, where most
of the students are Shias.

ISIS continues to grow and size and strength, having killed more than
4,400 people this year alone. It began in Syria when the Shia/Alawite
president Bashar al-Assad started slaughtering thousands of innocent
Sunni women and children, and driving millions from their homes. It
has become the rock star jihadist organization these days, where tens
of thousands of young people from all of the world have come to join.
It's growing in both Syria and Iraq, and is threatening the Shia-led
government in Iraq.

ISIS continues to grow for several reasons:

• Bashar al-Assad is carrying out a policy of "industrial
  strength" torture and extermination on his opponents, mostly
  Sunni civilians.
  
• Russia and Iran are providing unlimited supplies of weapons
  to al-Assad to carry out is torture and extermination of
  Sunni civilians.
  
• The Obama administration flip-flopped on its "red line" threat
  that there would be consequences if al-Assad used chemical weapons.
  Al-Assad used sarin gas on civilians last year, and continues to use
  chlorine and ammonia in barrel bombs filled with explosives, screws,
  nails and other shrapnel. Al-Assad uses chemical weapons with
  complete impunity.
  
• The Shia government of Iraq, with the support of the Shia
  government of Iran, has inflicted enormous discrimination on the Sunni
  minority in Iraq, infuriating Sunni jihadists.

Terrorism violence has grown almost every month since the total
withdrawal of American forces in December, 2011. ISIS continues to
grow and become a major threat to the Mideast and to the world.
The National (UAE) and Ammon News (Jordan)


KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Ukraine, Petro Poroshenko, Viktor Yanukovich,
Russia, Crimea, Vladimir Putin, Denis Pushilin,
James Sherr, Chatam House,
Islamic Emirate in Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, ISIS, ISIL,
Iraq, Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Iran

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