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Former cricketer Imran Khan promises hope and change for Pakistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Former cricketer Imran Khan promises hope and change for Pakistan
* Second Gaza cease-fire broken within just a day
* China arrests over 12,000 suspects in internet drug trafficking sweep
* Somali-American identified as suicide bomber in Mogadishu
* Villages in India celebrate the world's 7 billion'th baby
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Imran Khan, a Pashtun born in 1952, one of Pakistan's greatest cricket players of all time, once voted as the "Sexiest Man of The Year" by Australia Magazine Oz, turned to politics in the 1990s. He's now the presidential candidate for the Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) (Movement for Justice) party, with Islamist roots. On Sunday, he addressed a "tsunami" of supporters in Lahore, Pakistan, where some 100,000 people attended a rally, far exceeding expectations. Saying that "It's time for a change," he promised to have closer ties with China, to distance Pakistan from the U.S., and to "convince" India to withdraw its military from the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. Express Tribune (Pakistan)
A second Egypt-sponsored ceasefire this week between Gaza and Israel was broken within 24 hours, as rocket fire from Gaza into Israel and Israeli air strikes on militant Gaza targets both resumed on Sunday. Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak said Sunday afternoon that: "We will do anything to defend Israeli civilians. I advise the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist organizations not to test our capabilities." Jewish Telegraphic Agency
China's police arrested 12,125 suspects during a recent nationwide campaign against Internet-based drug addiction and sale. Police across the country busted 144 rings involved in drug production and trafficking and 22 secret drug-producing sites, and confiscated 308.3 kg of illicit drugs. The battle was conducted after some criminal suspects were found to be using online video platform to conduct sales and gather drug addicts. Xinhua
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Abdisalan Hussein Ali, 22, who was born in Somalia but came to Minneapolis, Minn., at age 2, is said to be one of two suicide bombers who blew themselves up in an attack on African Union peacekeeping troops in Mogadishu. According to the FBI, an estimated 30 Americans have joined the al-Shabaab terrorist group, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda, and at least 20 of them are from the Somali community in Minneapolis. In high school, Ali was elected president of the school’s Somali Student Association, and he later became a caseworker at a prestigious law firm. At the University of Minnesota, he majored in chemistry and held a part-time job as a security guard at the management school there. NY Times (Access)
The United Nations has declared that the population of the earth will reach 7 billion on Monday, October 31, although the exact place and time will not be known. Nonetheless, two villages in India's most populous state of Uttar Pradesh are each preparing to celebrate the arrival of the 7 billion'th baby on Monday. Approximately 11 children are born every minute in Uttar Pradesh, so there'll be plenty to choose from. However, to publicize the fact that Indian mothers often choose to abort female fetuses, one children's welfare group has selected seven women expected to give birth on Monday, and the first newborn girl among them will be declared the seven billionth baby. DPA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 31-Oct-11 World View -- Somali-American identified as suicide bomber in Mogadishu
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Oct-2011)
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U.S. economy tipping into recession
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Tension over Syria mounts as Arab League meets
* Syria's Assad warns that intervention will cause an 'earthquake'
* Support for Assad regime
* Is Iran dropping its support for Syria?
* U.S. economy tipping into recession
* Germany's Constitutional Court vetoes high-speed bailout decisions
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The apparent success of the military operation in Libya, that followed the Arab League's unanimous request for a no-fly zone seven months ago, has raised hopes among groups opposed to the regime of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad that the Arab League, at its meeting on Sunday in Qatar, will make a similar request. The United Nations and the Arab League issued separate condemnations Saturday of violence in Syria after dozens were reported killed a day earlier in one of the deadliest single-day tolls since protests erupted more than seven months ago. The League said it had sent an "urgent message ... to the Syrian government expressing its severe discontent over the continued killing of Syrian civilians," and "expressed the hope that the Syrian government would take action to protect civilians." Telegraph
In his first interview with a Western journalist since Syria's uprising began, president Bashar al-Assad said:
"Syria is different in every respect from Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen. The history is different. The politics is different.Syria is the hub now in this region. It is the fault line, and if you play with the ground you will cause an earthquake … Do you want to see another Afghanistan, or tens of Afghanistans?
Any problem in Syria will burn the whole region. If the plan is to divide Syria, that is to divide the whole region."
Assad insisted that his army is targeting only "terrorists." Telegraph
External intervention in Syria could meet with substantial opposition. Last week, there was another large pro-Assad demonstration with tens and perhaps hundreds of thousands of people, including veiled women, old men, thousands of children with "Syria" written on their faces. The struggle in Syria now cuts through the center of the country and that many armed men now oppose the army. Robert Fisk
According to an analysis by Debka, the lengthy October 23 CNN interview of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was part of the power struggle between Ahmadinejad and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and signaled a revised Iranian strategy that includes the removal of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. In that interview, Ahmadinejad said,
"Nobody, nobody, nobody has the right to kill others, neither the government nor the opponents.Our recommendation is very clear and it is a recommendation for all. for the United States: Instead of capturing or arresting people, they should hear the voice. They should listen to the people and they have things to say. And they should pay attention to their demands and needs. We say that governments must be responsible for the needs and desires of their own peoples, the security of the people and their rights. And this is general for Iran, for Libya, for Syria, for Europe, United States, Africa, everywhere. And this is a general rule for all. We have announced that many times."
Thus, Iran and Turkey are drawing close to a rapprochement after a year of vitriolic exchanges of Iran, and are developing a joint strategy.
Separately, Debka reports that Syria is laying land mines along the border with Turkey, and is preparing for military intervention. Debka
Dozens of specialized leading indexes indicate that the U.S. economy is tipping into a new recession, and that there's nothing that policy makers can do to prevent it. A new recession isn’t simply a statistical event. It’s a vicious cycle that, once started, must run its course. Under certain circumstances, a drop in sales, for instance, lowers production, which results in declining employment and income, which in turn weakens sales further, all the while spreading like wildfire from industry to industry, region to region, and indicator to indicator. Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI)
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Germany's Verfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court) has issued a temporary injunction banning the work of a new nine-person panel setup by the Bundestag (parliament) to make speedy decisions on proposals related to the euro bailout mechanism, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The first committee meeting, scheduled for Friday, was cancelled. It's feared that Germany's parliament might take weeks or months to make decision required to implement the EFSF, and so the committee was set up to streamline decision making. But according to one opponent of the committee, "The Bundestag cannot be replaced by a nine-member committee on such important issues." Der Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 30-Oct-11 News -- Tension over Syria mounts as Arab League meets on Sunday
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Oct-2011)
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China's housing bubble collapses as home prices fall sharply
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* China's housing bubble collapses as home prices fall sharply
* China's credit bubble collapses as well
* China appears unwilling to help bail out Europe
* Fitch says that Greece's 50% bond haircut would trigger default
* Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement rapidly expands
* American expands its Arba Minch Air Force base in Ethiopia
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In Shanghai this week, a firestorm of protest erupted when developers offered discounts of as much as 40% on new, unsold apartments. Several hundred buyers, who had plunked down cash for the full price, were furious that their investments had lost so much value before they even received the keys. This is just one sign that the continuing collapse of China's housing bubble has been accelerating since August, with potential severe consequences for China's economy. Globe and Mail (Canada)
China's businesses and households have accumulated a massive amount of debt, rivaling the subprime crisis in America. But now the economic slowdown is forcing many businesses to close, and many business owners simply to flee to another province or to another country. For Chinese officials, the biggest concern is unrest, China already has tens of thousands of "mass incidents" every year, and the number has been growing. China has a history of massive internal rebellions, and Generational Dynamics predicts that the next one is due around now. Washington Post
A lot of people are hoping that China will bail out the rest of the world, which is why Klaus Regling, chief executive of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is visiting Beijing, in the hope of getting some investment commitments from China. As I reported in "28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal," the Europeans plan to set up a "Special Purpose Vehicle" (SPV) that will collect investments from developing countries like China and Brazil, and then use that money to bail out European countries as part of the EFSF. In fact, Chinese participation is crucial to the eurozone bailout. However, Regling returned empty-handed, but he said that he was still confident Beijing would invest. Reuters
A crucial element of the eurozone bailout plan is that accepting a 50% "haircut" on Greece's bonds would be "voluntary," so that no default "credit event" would be triggered. However, Fitch Ratings on Friday issued a statement:
"The 50 percent nominal haircut on the proposed bond exchange would be viewed by the agency as a default event under its Distressed Debt Exchange criteria."
According to an analyst, "It’s highly likely that all three rating agencies will classify this restructuring as a technical default. Even if it’s voluntary, investors are left with a product that’s lower in value to what they originally agreed. Bloomberg
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President Mwai Kibak defended Kenya's decision to carry out a military action against al-Shabaab militia in Somalia, saying that it's not a war against Somalia. He made it clear there is no turning back and that the operation against al-Shabaab would continue until Kenya’s national security and economic interests are secured. Al-Shabaab is an affiliate of al-Qaeda. At the same time Somalia’s Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohammed Ali said in a statement that his country and Kenya shared a common strategy against al-Shabaab. "The Somali Government views the fights against al-Shabaab extremists as direct support extended to the Somali people and as an action that will improve the security of Somalia, Kenya, and of the entire Horn of Africa." Standard Media (Kenya)
After repeatedly denying that America had any bases in the region, the Air Force finally confirmed Thursday that an air base at Arba Minch, in Ethiopia, became operational early this year, and that it has been secretly flying Reaper drones over Somalia, as part of a rapidly expanding U.S.-led proxy war against al-Shabaab. The Air Force has invested millions of dollars to upgrade an airfield in Arba Minch, Ethiopia, where it has built a small annex to house a fleet of drones that can be equipped with Hellfire missiles and satellite-guided bombs. An early version of this story reported that the drones were armed, but the Washington Post later corrected the story to say that the drones are unarmed and have been used only for surveillance and collecting intelligence. However, the Pentagon did not rule out arming them in the future. Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 29-Oct-11 World View -- Kenya gets mired in Somalia, and U.S. involvement rapidly expands
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Oct-2011)
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Haverford's Hank Smith lied about price/earnings ratios
The Dow Industrials by 340 points on Thursday, on the basis of a new eurozone deal, announced at 4 am on Thursday morning, that would be beyond belief if it weren't for the fact that nothing is beyond belief today.
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This eurozone deal is the craziest Rube Goldberg thing imaginable. These European leaders got together in the middle of the night and strung together a bunch of proposals, most of which were the cause of the financial crisis in the first place.
Here are the major parts of the deal, according to Bloomberg, and according to numerous comments I heard and read on Thursday:
According to Christine LaGarde, head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "What we have today is a comprehensive plan that includes all the ingredients."
According to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, "This now brings us to stability and to a stable currency union!"
The bank recapitalization is the least controversial of the proposals.
But since banks will be recapitalized with new debt, they will be even more reluctant than they already are to lend money, leading to a new credit crunch.
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On CNBC on Thursday morning, Hank Smith, the Chief Investment Officer of Equity for Haverford Quality Investing was asked whether stocks were cheap, and he said the following:
"Absolutely they're cheap on a P/E basis. They're selling below the historical average at about 13 times next year's earnings."
This is an absolute lie, and he knows it.
The historical average, based on trailing earnings, is 14. I have not seen any historical analysis of the P/E ratio based on forward earnings, but I have seen figures that indicate that forward earnings (based on analyst estimates) have averaged something like twice as high as the earnings turn out to be. This implies that the historical average for P/E ratios based on forward earnings is 7, which means that a P/E ratio of 13 is WAAAAAAAAAAAAY expensive.
Even if Smith himself, who undoubtedly earns a multi-million dollar salary, is too dumb to understand this, there's no doubt that his technical staff understands it, and so this is a purposeful lie.
As I've said before, analysts and journalists on CNBC and Bloomberg tv ALWAYS lie when they talk about price/earnings ratios (also called valuations), as I've discussed in "5-Oct-10 News -- Goldman Sachs's Cohen gives price/earnings fantasy" and "24-Aug-10 News -- Ariel's Bobrinskoy gives price/earnings fantasy."
So, in case I've been too subtle, let me state it clearly: Hank Smith of Haverford Quality Investing was on CNBC on Thursday morning and he purposely lied about P/E ratios.
The Dow Industrials average increased by 340 points on Thursday, and the Dow is now on pace for the biggest monthly point gain in history, according to the pundits.
Back in 2004, someone online asked me, "How can you ever be proven wrong? You're predicting a financial crisis, and if it doesn't happen, then you just say it hasn't happened yet."
My response at that time was, "Public debt has been increasing exponentially. If it ever starts leveling off and falling, then you can tell me I'm wrong."
I was predicting that the financial crisis would occur in 2007, and that turned out to be right in the sense that the credit crunch began at that time. But the major crisis hasn't yet occurred, because governments around the world have been increasing public debt to astronomical levels.
Every action taken by America, Europe, China and other countries since 2007 has been to stave off disaster by enormously increasing public debt. I can't tell the exact date when this is all going to come crashing down, but Thursday's parabolic stock market surge may indicate that it may not be far off.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Oct-2011)
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Pakistan threatens to sue BBC over documentary on helping Taliban
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Pakistan threatens to sue BBC over documentary on helping Taliban
* Taliban essentially confirm support from high Pakistan officials
* Pakistan: American drone attacks are war crimes
* U.N. Security Council ends mandate for international military operations in Libya
* Iran's chess champ expelled from tournament for refusing to play Israeli
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The BBC's recent investigative reports, involving interviews with Taliban commanders who claim that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency has been actively helping the Taliban conduct terrorist attacks against Americans in Afghanistan, has been strongly denied by a Pakistani army spokesman, who said that the ISI had itself suffered at the hands of al-Qaeda and its affiliates, saying about 300 officials had died in attacks. "You think it is sane for any intelligence operator to harbour people who'll attack its own men?" he said. He also claimed that Pakistan was being used as a scapegoat for the situation in Afghanistan, and he threatened legal action against the BBC. BBC
The Taliban in Afghanistan have issued an unprecedented condolence statement on the death of Maulana Abdul Ghani, a top right-wing Pakistani politician, who died in a car crash on Wednesday. Ghani was an influential figure in Pakistan's government, but the Taliban statement said that he was a "martyr for the cause of jihad" and that it would be difficult to replace him. The Taliban's top leadership was in attendance at his funeral, along with hundreds of local citizens and Taliban foot soldiers. Later, a Taliban spokesman said that Maulana Ghani had shown what he called great courage in supporting the movement after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001. He added that the Maulana's services and commitment for the cause of jihad would never be forgotten. BBC
As we recently reported, U.S. and Nato are shifting hundreds of troops, heavy arms and helicopter gunships to the Afghan border Pakistan, at the Waziristan tribal area. New media reports say that U.S. and Nato forces have completely sealed the border along North Waziristan, risking a major confrontation with Pakistan's army. A large segment of Pakistan's population believes that America is at war with Pakistan, and many believe that the American drone attacks that kill civilians are war crimes. Pakistan Observer
The Security Council on Thursday ordered the end to authorized international military action in Libya, more than seven months after allowing United Nations member states to take "all necessary measures" to protect civilians during a popular uprising against the country’s former regime. The 15-member UN body unanimously passed a resolution ending the UN mandate allowing military intervention and terminating a no-fly zone over Libya that had also been imposed in March. The authorization will end on October 31. UN News Center
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Iran's policy that the "occupying Zionist regime of Israel" is not recognized has resulted in the expulsion of Iran's chess champ, Grandmaster Ehsan Qaem Maqami, for refusing to play against Israeli player Ehud Sachar in an international tournament. Iranian athletes refuse to play against Israeli opponents in other sport fields as well. The 26-year old Qaem Maqami was named by the World Chess Federation as the most active and promoting player in 2004. Press TV (Tehran)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 28-Oct-11 News -- Markets explode on crazy Rube Goldberg eurozone deal
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Oct-2011)
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More evidence that Pakistan's ISI supports Taliban terrorists
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Saif al-Islam Gaddafi reportedly will turn himself in to the ICC
* More evidence that Pakistan's ISI supports Taliban terrorists
* Sharia law and 'Islamic Democratic' identity
* Police and 'occupy' protesters clash in Oakland violence
* Financial crisis summit meeting of European leaders fails to agree on anything
* Dutch finance minister blames the 'Anglo-Saxon press'
* Catholics vs Protestants in European fiscal crisis
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Muammar Gaddafi's son, who once gave a speech saying that he would fight to the last bullet and would die in Libya, apparently is scared about how he'll be treated if he remains in Libya. An official of the National Transitional Council said on Wednesday that Saif al-Islam, the only one of Muammar Gaddafi's eight children still on the run, has proposed surrendering to the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC), where he is wanted on war crimes charges. Reuters
BBC interviews with Taliban commanders provides further evidence that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency is actively supporting Taliban militants killing Americans in Afghanistan. The BBC report also quotes veteran CIA office Bruce Riedel as saying that our own intelligence is "unequivocal" that the ISI is actively supporting the insurgency. According to Reidel, the recent drone attacks in Pakistan's tribal area have become much more effective, ever since the U.S. began withholding intelligence from the Pakistanis. "At the beginning of the drone operations, we gave Pakistan an advance tip-off of where we were going, and every single time the target wasn't there anymore. You didn't have to be Sherlock Holmes to put the dots together." BBC
The trends are getting clearer that China and Pakistan are preparing for war against India and America. For the time being, China and Pakistan want America to remain tied down in Afghanistan, and they want Pakistan to keep receiving American aid, presumably to fight the Taliban.
From conservative commentator Max Boot:
"Saying a country’s legal system will be based on sharia law is about as descriptive as saying it will be based on the Ten Commandants or the teachings of Christ. Like Christianity, Judaism or any other religion, Islam is subject to countless interpretations. Sharia law has meant many different things in many different countries across the ages. Even Islamic fundamentalists are not all alike. Wahhabis rule in both Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, yet liquor is readily available in the latter but not the former."
Long-time readers of my web site are well aware of how skeptical I am about Western claims about Islamic Sharia law. Boot seems to have described the situation pretty well. Just to take one example, I'm much more concerned about the ISI support for the Taliban than I am about Sharia law. Commentary
Violence broke out between police and "Occupy Wall Street" protesters in Oakland, Calif. Protesters threw bottles at police, who used teargas in return. An Iraq war veteran was hit in the head with a projectile, and he is reported to be in critical condition. These left-wing protests in Greece, Spain, America, and other countries continue to exhibit low-level violence, which is expected to grow as the financial crisis grows. PBS
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Although negotiations are extending past midnight into Thursday morning, officials at the much-hyped summit meeting of European leaders are saying that they have been unable to reach agreement on any of the major issues that they've repeatedly promised to agree on by now. A major issue is the size of the "haircut" that holders of Greek bonds will "voluntarily" have to take. Bankers, the major bondholders, originally agreed to the 21% haircut announced in July, but they're now balking at the 50%+ haircut that's currently under consideration, preferring instead to force a "credit event" that will allow them to collect on their credit default swap (CDS) insurance after a Greek default. Another issue is the increase to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a bailout fund which is supposed to prevent future crises. They want to increase the fund to €2 trillion or more from its current €440 million, but they can't agree on who will provide the funding. Bloomberg
Update: Early Thursday morning, bankers and politicians announced an agreement on a 50% "haircut."
Holland Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager blames the Anglo-Saxon press for attaching so much importance to Wednesday's failed summit. "We never talked about this summit as the decisive summit. It has only been portrayed as such by the Anglo-Saxon press," he said. Wall Street Journal (Access)
The BBC presented some comedic material on the European fiscal crisis, and one of the comedians was Abie Philbin Bowman. The following is my transcription of what he said, which is supposed to be funny, but which may cause some people to take offense:
My show is called "Pope Benedict - Bond Villain."For some reason, all of the Catholic countries are the ones in trouble - Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy. And all of the countries doing the bailing out are the Protestant nations of Europe, like Germany, the UK, Scandanavia, Holland. The Greeks are neither Catholic nor Protestant -- they're Orthodox, though their system of accounting is not particularly Orthodox.
And essentially what I'm asking: Is this a Vatican plot, to make us really poor, so that we all believe in God again. Headed by the Pope who is the perfect Bond villain.
He has all the elements - the German accent, shadowy Nazi past, a priceless art collection, lives in a huge mansion, drives the Popemobile, and is the head of a secret organzation which is trying to take over the world. And not only that, but like every truly great Bond villain, the public name sounds completely innocent, Pope Benedict XVI, and a real name which is pure evil -- Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger [[said gutterally]]. You can almost hear Sean Connery saying, "You'll never get away with this, Ratzinger". -- Abie Philbin Bowman
(BBC World Service)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 27-Oct-11 World View -- Financial crisis summit meeting of European leaders fails to agree on anything
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Oct-2011)
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Thailand's PM Yingluck concedes that Bangkok will be flooded
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Wednesday's much-hyped EU Finance Ministers' meeting is canceled
* Greeks panic and withdraw money from banks
* Berlusconi's government in Italy close to collapse
* Algeria imposes censorship to prevent an 'Arab Spring'
* Thailand's PM Yingluck concedes that Bangkok will be flooded
* Russia asks Security Council to end Libya's no-fly zone
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The EU's 27 finance ministers were due to meet on Wednesday morning to work out final details of a much-hyped bailout announcement to be made on Wednesday evening, but the meeting has been canceled, indicating that the parties are too far apart to have any hope of reaching an agreement. The meeding of heads of state, scheduled for Wednesday evening, is still on, but there will be no "big bazooka" announcement that had been promised. Telegraph
Panicky citizens of Greece, fearing a national bankruptcy and loss of their savings, are withdrawing their money from Greek banks as quickly as they can. In the last week alone, €200 million cash has been transferred from Greek banks to banks in Switzerland. According to the head of one Athens bank branch, 2,500 of his 5,000 customers have withdrawn their money, to transfer it abroad or hoard it at home. "There are cases where people leave with €300 000 in their bank bag. If this continues, there will soon be no more money." Bild (Germany) (via EuroIntelligence)
Italy's prime minister Silvio Berlusconi French president Nicolas Sarkozy a couple of days ago, complaining that Italy wasn't moving fast enough to implement reforms to bring down Italy's budget deficit. Since Italy is apparently next in line for a bailout, Berlusconi has been desperately trying to put together a deficit reduction plan, but the unpopular measures are bringing his governing coalition close to collapse. However, Berlusconi has survived many crises before, including scandals where he appears able to get any number of hot young chicks into bed, so he may well survive this one. Guardian
Although the Arab Spring has not yet come to Algeria in full force, the country remains ripe for social unrest. Not only is poverty is widespread and unemployment high (especially among youth), but pervasive government corruption and deficient public services are persistent sources of significant popular dissatisfaction. And despite the “repeal” of the 1992 emergency laws in response to the major protests of January 2011, where two people were killed in clashes with security forces, the Algerian regime has continued to find ways to maintain the same level of control. In particular, broadcasters are required to "show respect for the Constitution" and avoid "excesses that might undermine [Algeria’s] unity and sovereignty." Foreign Policy in Focus (FPIF)
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After saying for weeks that the floods were sufficiently under control that central Bangkok would remain dry, Thailand's prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra conceded on Tuesday that the floodwalls that have been erected to protect the inner city will not be able to withstand the massive inundation, probably this weekend. The floods north of Bangkok have been devastating. Water now covers a third of Thailand's provinces, some 4 million acres (1.6 million hectares) in the north, northeast and center of the country. Entire provinces have disappeared. Bangkok Post
Russia is submitting a draft resolution to the United Nations Security Council to abolish the no-fly zone over Libya, which has been in effect since March 17 due to a previous Security Council resolution. Russia notes that Muammar Gaddafi has died, and yet Nato has not announced an end to the air strikes. Russia is also asking the Security Council to create a mechanism to control the man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) in Gaddafi's arsenal. It's believed that hundreds of these surface-to-air missiles have been stolen from Libyan stockpiles, and may eventually be in the hands of al-Qaeda or Iran. Voice of Russia
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 26-Oct-11 World View -- Wednesday's much-hyped EU Finance Ministers' meeting is canceled
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Oct-2011)
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U.S. withdraws ambassador to Syria after regime-sponsored threats
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* U.S. withdraws ambassador to Syria after regime-sponsored threats
* Bomb blasts in Nairobi, Kenya, kill one person, injure dozens
* Britain's David Cameron defeats call for referendum on EU membership
* Polygamy in Libya becomes an issue in the West
* Greece's government runs out of ink for tax bills
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Robert Ford, the U.S. Ambassador to Syria, has returned to Washington due to "direct threats against his personal safety" that included "false and malicious articles” in government-controlled and affiliated media in Syria. Chargé d'affaires Haynes Mahoney has been put in charge of the embassy in Damascus. According to Mahoney, "For example, there was one [article] stating that he was attempting to implement a civil war in Syria. And then there was another that claims that he was in charge of death squads in Iraq, and he was trying to apply his experience here in Syria. Our assessment was that these articles were trying to incite violence against him, and the attack that happened on September 29 by pro-regime thugs was another example of threats against his security." Syria immediately recalled its own top diplomat, Imad Moustapha, for consultations. VOA
Al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda linked terrorist group is Somalia, is fulfilling its promise to retaliate for Kenya's incursion into Somalia to clear out al-Shabaab. (See "23-Oct-11 World View -- U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat") Two deadly explosions in Kenya's capital city, Nairobi, on Monday evening, one at a bar and another at a bus stop, killed one person and injured 32 others. Police Commissioner Mathew Iteere said, "These people [Al-Shabaab] appear they have declared a war on Kenyans and we are mobilising all resources at our disposal to ensure we keep Kenyans safe." Standard Media (Nairobi)
Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron has comfortably defeated attempts in parliament to bring about a referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union. Despite a rebellion by 80 "eurosceptic" MPs in Cameron's own Conservative party, a large majority defeated the motion. The motion was prompted after a petition was signed by more than 100,000 people. BBC
Sunday's announcement by Libya's National Transitional Council leader Mustafa Abdul-Jalil Islamic Sharia law would be the main source of legislation, and that polygamy would be legalized, has created a fair amount of controversy in the West. AP
Polygamy actually plays a very important social role in many societies, especially where war has resulted in a large number of unattached females. Polygamy isn't about sex; it's about security and support for women. Mohammed's polygamy, for example, has been explained by the fact that he married the widows of his own fallen soldiers for their protection. So I thought it was interesting that the BBC interviewed a female Tripoli Post journalist, Khadija Ali, on the subject. Here's my transcription:
"Jalil was saying that we're going to stick with our religion, even the parts that the West doesn't approve of. I think he brought the subject up because of the raped women in the country, because of the divorced women, because of the women who are widowed right now. And I think that he understands right now that the chance for them to get married [is small], and polygamy will give them the dignity and security from social stigma against rape. In parallel, at the same time, we need to cure the whole rape issue, and I think right now polygamy will go side by side in curing it. And I think polygamy is a worthy option right now for Libyan women who are widowed."
The BBC interviewer, James Menendez, actually sputtered in confusion over hearing this, and asked her what she meant.
"Women who have been raped or widowed - polygamy will give them a bigger chance for them to be taken in by somebody who's already married - a husband that already has another wife. Rape isn't something that's easy, and I think [polygamy will] get more accepted, and I think also there are many men out there who are married who are honored to have women who gave up so much for the revolution and are willing to take in these women."
I've always thought that it was man-bashing by feminists who extol the virtues of one woman marrying another woman, but then recoil in horror when one woman wants to marry another woman AND a man. Just one more area of misunderstanding between the Arabs and the West. (BBC World Service)
The government department in Greece that sends out tax bills and statements to citizens has run out of ink because the supplier hasn't been paid. The Finance Ministry is asking taxpayers to print out their own tax bills via the online system, and then pay them. The ministry hopes to sign a deal for more ink by the end of the year. Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 25-Oct-11 World View -- Polygamy in Libya becomes an issue in the West
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Oct-2011)
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Libya's interim leader declares support for Sharia law
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* The European situation continues to worsen
* Britain may hold referendum on leaving the European Union
* Sarkozy tells Cameron to 'shut up' in euro clash
* Anti-Immigrant party loses ground in Switzerland
* Libya's interim leader declares support for Sharia law
* Colonel Gaddafi's will calls for his supporters to fight on
 |
I've quoted the following many times in the past, and now it's worth doing so again. John Kenneth Galbraith's 1954 book The Great Crash - 1929, contrasted the 1929 with previous panics:
"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune." (p. 108)
Shell-shocked European leaders are aware that they're facing imminent disaster, but they keep hoping that if they can only stall a few days or a few weeks longer, then things will improve. But the singular feature of Europe's problems is that the worst is continuing to worsen.
As we've reported, A new bombshell hit the EU finance ministers on Friday, when they learned that Greece alone could swallow the eurozone's entire €440 billion bailout fund, leaving nothing for Italy, Spain or France.
And on Saturday, Christine Lagarde, the new head of the International Monetary Foundation (IMF) announced that the IMF would no longer be willing to pick up a third of the total bill for rescuing Greece, a contribution worth €73 billion, unless Greece were forced to default, and investors were forced to take at least a 50% "haircut" -- meaning that European banks that had invested heavily in Greek bonds would have to write off 50% of their debt.
This worsening situation is caused by generational changes, as I've described many times. I've used the analogy before that this is like a tsunami that was launched decades ago, and is now drowning Europe. No politician could have either caused or prevented this tsunami, nor the tsunami that's also headed for America, nor the one headed for China. The politicians are trying to pile sandbags on the beach, but the tsunami keeps getting higher and higher, pouring over the sandbags, ready to drown everyone.
The EU finance ministers met all weekend without reaching any conclusions. That Greece will have to default is now a given, even though they'll get their next bailout payment in November. When Greece defaults, German banks will come out relatively OK, while French banks face disaster. That's why the Germans want each country to bail out its own banks, while the French want the European Central Bank (ECB) to bail out everyone's banks.
The next meeting of EU finance ministers is Wednesday. No one knows whether they'll come up with some kind of agreement by then. But Generational Dynamics tells us that it doesn't make any difference. No matter what deal they come up with, it won't be enough, and the tsunami will overwhelm it. Telegraph and Irish Times
Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron is facing a massive political rebellion as over 70 MPs in his own Conservative (Tory) party are threatening to vote in favor of holding a referendum on leaving the European Union. In a sign of the growing acrimony on the Tory benches, one senior party member accused William Hague, the Foreign Secretary, of "insulting MPs' intelligence" by claiming that such a vote would be damaging in a time of economic uncertainty. Independent
This reminds me of the good old days of 2005. (See "Acrimonious European Union summit ends in crisis") In 2005, there was a very acrimonious EU summit meeting where French President Jacques Chirac was demanding that Britain receive less EU money and France receive more EU money. Furious EU President Jean-Claude Juncker shook his fist at British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Several months later, Britain caved in to Chirac's demands.
Well, there they go again. French President Nicolas Sarkozy told British Prime Minister David Cameron to "shut up" on Sunday. "We are sick of you criticising us and telling us what to do. You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere in our meetings." The particular issue that triggered the acrimony was Cameron's insistence that he be allowed to attend Wednesday's meeting of the eurozone finance ministers, even though Britain is not in the eurozone. They finally compromised by agreeing to allow Cameron to attend for the first hour. Independent
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For the first time in four years, Switzerland's major anti-immigrant party has lost ground. In elections on Sunday, support for the Swiss People's Party (SVP) fell by more than 2 points to 26.8%, instead of growing to more than 30% as party leaders had predicted. The party rose to fame in 2007 when it got 29% of the vote on an anti-immigrant campaign that the United Nations described as "racist." In 2009, the SVP shocked Europe by backing a referendum forbidding the building of minarets. (See "Switzerland shocks itself by passing a ban on minarets.") Sunday's election indicates that, for the first time, the xenophobic fervor may be starting to retreat, as other issues, particularly the growing financial crisis, threaten to overwhelm Europe. Independent and SwissInfo
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In an announcement that's sure to raise human rights concerns in Western countries, Mustafa Abdul-Jalil, the chairman of the National Transitional Council and de facto president of Libya announced:
"We, as an Islamic state, have adopted the Islamic Shariah as the main source of legislation. As such, any law that runs contrary to the Islamic principles of the Islamic Shariah is legally void."
Islamic law, or Sharia law, is perceived extremely negatively in the West, even though most of the concerns are exaggerated. As a practical matter, the biggest consequence of Sharia law is that banks are not permitted to charge interest. "Interest creates disease and hatred among people," according to Jalil. However, Sharia law is practiced in some Gulf countries, which have pioneered the development of Sharia-compliant banks which charge fees rather than interest for loans, while they normally run alongside western-style banks. Telegraph
In his will, former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi made it clear that he had decided to die in Libya rather than flee, telling his supporters: "Let the free people of the world know that we could have bargained over and sold out our cause in return for a personal secure and stable life. We received many offers to this effect but we chose to be at the vanguard of the confrontation as a badge of duty and honour." Gaddafi asked to be buried, clothed as he died, with his body unwashed, in a graveyard in his home town of Sirte, not far from where he was killed as he fled the city on Thursday. He said, "I call on my supporters to continue the resistance, and fight any foreign aggressor against Libya, today, tomorrow and always." Telegraph
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 24-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy tells Cameron to 'shut up' in euro clash
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Oct-2011)
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Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq kills 49 Kurdish rebels
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat
* Analysis: India being 'contained' by growing Chinese footprint in Pakistan
* Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq kills 49 Kurdish rebels
* Turkey's image is confusing to Tunisia and the Arab world
* Death of Saudi prince signals more conservative Islamist shift
* Russia's defense industry beset by corrupt, predatory practices
 |
The U.S. Embassy in Nairobi, Kenya, warned American citizens Saturday of an "imminent threat of terrorist attacks" after Kenya sent troops across the border into Somalia to pursue suspected Islamic militants from Al-Shabaab:
"This is to inform U.S. citizens residing in or visiting Kenya that the U.S. Embassy in Kenya has received credible information of an imminent threat of terrorist attacks directed at prominent Kenyan facilities and areas where foreigners are known to congregate, such as malls and night clubs."
As we reported when Kenya announced the invasion last week, Al-Shabaab said that it would "strike at the heart of [Kenya's] interests." However, the U.S. announcement didn't specify who was threatening the attack. [A terrorist attack in Nairobi on August 7, 1998 killed about 200 people and left more than 1,000 injured after a bomb explosion near the then US embassy.] CNN and The Nation (Kenya)
 |
According to an Indian analysis, China's rapidly increasing footprint in Pakistan-governed Kashmir and in Afghanistan represents an increasing military danger to India. There are some 3000-4000 Chinese, including troops, in Pakistan-governed Kashmir, stationed near the Line of Control (LOC) that separates the Pakistani and Indian regions, building major infrastructure projects. Kashmir and Jammu (K&J) were the site of an extremely bloody genocidal war between Hindus and Muslims following Partition, the 1947 war that following the partitioning of the Indian subcontinent, creating the states of India and Pakistan. The region is still disputed, and in recent years, China has become firmly and unequivocally on the side of Pakistan, making it clear that any war in the region will be on two fronts for India. In addition, China has been aggressively bidding for large energy and infrastructure projects in northern Afghanistan, meaning that China will have a strong presence in Afghanistan as the Americans withdraw. At that time, the Islamist Mujahadeen terrorists will be diverted away from Afghanistan towards K&J. The analysis concludes that India must increase its own footprint in Afghanistan. Generational Dynamics predicts that India and Pakistan will be re-fighting the genocidal 1947 war. Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA)
Turkey's air and ground offensives are continuing on both sides of the border with Iraq. At least 49 Kurdish rebels have been killed in the past two days, according to Turkish military sources. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is calling for national unity in the fight against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorists, but he's facing increasing political opposition for the military conflict, with political opponents charging him with using the military for political purposes, rather than negotiating. VOA and Hurriyet (Ankara)
According to Ibrahim Kaboglu, a Turkish professor of constitutional law and human rights activist, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is sending confusing signals to the Arab world, and generating opposition in Tunisia in particular. Erdogan is presenting Turkey to the Arab world as a model of coexistence between an Islamist government and a secular nation. As a result, he's distrusted by both Islamists and secularists in Arab countries. Hurriyet
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Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud died Saturday in a New York hospital, having been ill with cancer for some time. He was heir to the throne, meaning that he was next in line to replace his half-brother, King Abdullah. 87-year-old Abdullah himself had just returned to the palace from his third back surgery this year. Sultan's death leaves his brother Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz al Saud the likely successor to the king. In the past, Nayef has criticized some of King Abdullah's social reforms, and is thought to be more religiously conservative than Abdullah. However, he's also a pragmatist, and as king would be unlikely to risk social unrest by reversing too many reforms. CNN and BBC
In what might be called his presidential campaign speeches, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has promised that within a decade a three trillion ruble ($95.18 billion) modernization program will completely rearm the entire military as well as make Russia a paragon of global growth, science and innovation. However, when one looks at the real state of affairs in the defense industrial sector as well as overall state procurement it becomes clear that such promises are but another farcical echo of earlier Soviet invocations of the radiant future. As Putin himself observed, only the stage of placing of state orders is currently regulated at present, and even this is insufficiently regulated. Meanwhile, the number and volume of non-competitive (and both corrupt and predatory) practices are increasing while more and more contracts are concluded with a sole contractor. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 23-Oct-11 World View -- U.S. warns American citizens in Kenya of imminent terrorist threat
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(23-Oct-2011)
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Occupy Wall Street protesters very similar to Greece's protesters
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Occupy Wall Street protesters very similar to Greece's protesters
* Palestinians to push U.N. for statehood recognition
* Surprise! Greece's economy is worse than expected
* Nato agrees to wind down Libya bombing campaign by November 1
* The NTC will proclaim the liberation of Libya on Saturday
* American troops will leave Iraq by end of year, causing controversy
 |
As the global financial crisis continues to worsen, and left-wing violence increases around the world, a poll by Democratic Party pollster Douglas Schoen indicates that the "Occupy Wall Street" protesters are ideologically very similar to the Communist and anarchist protesters in Athens. Interviews with nearly 200 protesters in New York's Zuccotti Park reveals that half (52%) have participated in a political movement before, virtually all (98%) say they would support civil disobedience to achieve their goals, and nearly one-third (31%) would support violence to advance their agenda. An overwhelming majority of demonstrators supported Barack Obama in 2008. Now 51% disapprove of the president while 44% approve, and only 48% say they will vote to re-elect him in 2012, while at least a quarter won't vote. Wall Street Journal (Access)
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas may pressure the United Nations Security Council to vote on the Palestinian proposal for full membership as quickly as possible, possibly by November 11. The reason for the rush is that five members of the Security Council will be replaced by new members on January 1, and the new members are not expected to be as supportive of the Palestinian cause as the nations that they're replacing. Bloomberg
According to a report to be released by the "troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund), Greece’s economy has deteriorated so severely in the last three months that it will require a €252 billion bailout, twice as much as estimated in the July 21 bailout announcement. Under more severe assumptions, this amount could balloon to €444 billion. As a result, the report recommends that bondholders of Greece's debt should have to take a 60% "haircut," well above the 21% haircut calculated on July 21. The report is based on economic assumptions through 2020 which is really ridiculous, since they have no idea what's happening next month, let alone by 2020. What clowns! Financial Times (Access)
Nato air patrols over Libya are set to continue in the next ten days as a precautionary measure to ensure the stability of the new regime, but the alliance made a preliminary decision to end the campaign on Oct. 31 and will make the formal decision next week. AP
The rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) will declare the liberation of Libya on Saturday, and will declare Libya a free nation. The announcement will take place in the eastern city of Benghazi, rather than in Tripoli, perhaps leading to suspicions that the disagreements between eastern and western tribes and militias are still great. The rebellion had cost close to 40,000 lives. Tripoli Post
According to a statement by President Barack Obama:
"A few hours ago I spoke with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki. I reaffirmed that the United States keeps its commitments. He spoke of the determination of the Iraqi people to forge their own future. We are in full agreement about how to move forward.So today, I can report that, as promised, the rest of our troops in Iraq will come home by the end of the year. After nearly nine years, America’s war in Iraq will be over.
Over the next two months, our troops in Iraq -- tens of thousands of them -- will pack up their gear and board convoys for the journey home. The last American soldier[s] will cross the border out of Iraq with their heads held high, proud of their success, and knowing that the American people stand united in our support for our troops. That is how America’s military efforts in Iraq will end."
The complete withdrawal of American troops from Iraq is raising controversy. The U.S. had hoped to leave several thousand troops behind in a non-combat role, in which they would train and advise Iraqi security forces, but the complete withdrawal may result in a dangerous power vacuum. According to security analyst Anthony Cordesman, "Now we’re going to have zero [soldiers], which means there won’t be forces to help maintain checkpoints between Kurds and Arabs. There are not going to be specialized forces to help the Iraqis deal with the kinds of terrorism and insurgent groups they have. We’re not going to have any clear contingency basing structure that will allow us to rapidly deploy if Iraq faced a threat from Iran." VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 22-Oct-11 World View -- Surprise! Greece's economy is worse than expected
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Oct-2011)
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Mission Accomplished! as Muammar Gaddafi is killed in Libya
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Mission Accomplished! as Muammar Gaddafi is killed in Libya
* Basque separatist group ETA announces end to campaign of violence
* France and Germany announce another summit for next week
* Greece passes harsh austerity bill amid violent rioting
* St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church to be rebuilt at Ground Zero
* Hillary Clinton harshly criticizes Pakistan on visit
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N.Y. Governor Andrew M. Cuomo has signed an agreement with the Port Authority and the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese to rebuild St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church, which was destroyed in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The agreement had been delayed because of disagreements over a land swap that will move the church slightly down the street to make way for some of the giant construction projects now under way at ground zero. Greek Reporter
The Basque separatist group ETA announced Thursday a "definitive cessation of its armed activity" in a published statement. Listed as a terrorist organization by Spain, the United States and the European Union, ETA is blamed for hundreds of deaths in its decades-long fight for an independent Basque state that it wants carved out of sections of northern Spain and southwestern France. The change in policy was brought about at the urging of Gerry Adams, the leader of Northern Ireland's Sinn Fein, the political arm of the terrorist Irish Republican Army (IRA), which has also renounced violence. CNN
Eurozone leaders were caught by surprise on Thursday evening when they learned that French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel had announced a second euro zone summit meeting for next week. The new meeting will be held on Wednesday, following the previously scheduled meeting on Sunday. The announcement is, in effect, an admission that France and Germany are still very far apart on their plans to save the world, and that no major breakthrough will be coming on Sunday. Meanwhile, other European diplomats are annoyed. "We were not informed," said one. "It's about time the French and Germans stopped talking just to each other and starting informing the rest of the world." Independent (London)
Greece's 300 member parliament on Thursday passed harsh new austerity legislation by a vote of 154-144. The vote is expected to pave the way for the next €8 billion bailout payment in early November. Outside the partliament building were thousands of protesters, many of them violent. After initial hours of calm, the rioting erupted when hundreds of masked anarchist youths attacked a peaceful rally of about 50,000 Communist-backed union members, pelting them with firebombs and jagged chunks of marble. The Communists counterattacked, and chaos ensued as the two sides fought with sticks and rocks before riot police fired volleys of tear gas to separate them. One protester died, and 100 more were injured. AP
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With a history of conflict among Libya's 140 or so tribes, the death of former leader Muammar Gaddafi will not mean the end of the war, as many people hope. The rebel National Transitional Council (TNC) must bring together numerous militias with differing ideologies and historical hatreds, even though they will no longer be unified by Gaddafi as a common enemy. The TNC is also responsible for recovering looted arms; halting revenge attacks on Gaddafi loyalists; caring for thousands of casualties; restoring oil production; repairing war damage, and keeping a lid on regional tensions and radical Islam. Even with Gaddafi as a common enemy, militias from Cyrenaica have had little contact with those west of Tripoli in Tripolitania, and the Tuareg tribe in Fezzan are long-time supporters of Gaddafi. The war in Libya is not ending, but is certainly entering a new phase. McClatchy
Before her arrival in Pakistan, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton bluntly warned Pakistan's leaders of "serious consequences" if Pakistan doesn't change its policies towards the Taliban and the Haqqani network. "There’s no place to go any longer. The terrorists are on both sides [of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan]. They are killing both peoples. No one should be in any way mistaken about allowing this to continue without paying a very big price." Later, Clinton added, "I have too much respect for Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani and for the country." The Nation (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 21-Oct-11 World View -- St. Nicholas Greek Orthodox Church to be rebuilt at Ground Zero
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(21-Oct-2011)
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Turkey's army invades northern Iraq pursuing PKK
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Sheer desperation grows among Europeans
* A sense of panic among politicians in Europe
* Sarkozy: 'Our destiny will be decided in the next 10 days'
* €440 billion will become €2 trillion through 'leverage'
* Violent riots in Athens as Greece's parliament passes new austerity measures
* Turkey's army invades northern Iraq pursuing PKK terrorists
* Vietnamese officials banned from playing golf
* Carla Bruni-Sarkozy gives birth to girl
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On Wednesday morning, I was listening to Ralph Silva, analyst with the Silva Research Network, on CNBC. Here's what he said (my transcript), but just the words on paper don't convey the full meaning:
"I think they're gonna support the euro. They're GONNA support the euro.[Question: Are they going to announce how they're going to do that?]
Well, if they start doing that, then the market's going to correct itself, and that's going to cause some problems.
And that's why I honestly believe they're waiting until pretty much the last minute, because they DO have some kind of solution. I'm SURE they have SOME KIND of solution. But they don't wanna mention it because it has to be a HUGE number, and that will cause EXTREME volatility in the markets, and right now, we don't really need that volatility. ...
The truth is that 2 trillion, and probably more, will probably have to be invested."
What mere words don't convey is the sense of panic in his voice. "They DO have some kind of solution. I'm SURE they have SOME KIND of solution." His voice was conveying desperation.
"The situation has been deteriorating dramatically, after Moody's put the French credit rating on a review. European officials are now warning that the eurozone may be in danger of unraveling unless the Sunday's summit was able to take a big decision. German politicians continued yesterday to lower expectations, while the British papers seem to be convinced that the Big Bazooka may indeed come out on Sunday."
France's president Nicolas Sarkozy reportedly said the following (translation):
"The choice that France made for Europe, against the backdrop of Franco-German reconciliation, is a choice that no one should question. France will not stand alone. Our continent, I should say the European continent, is the continent that has experienced the two most barbaric wars in the world. It was not the Middle Ages, it was the 20th century, on two occasions. We are in the early 21st century. I'll never let this destroy European heritage that has been transmitted by the wisdom of our elders, who, with war as a foundation, have managed to build reconciliation. Europe is the most beautiful construction in the service of peace ever invented by human beings. There is no place in the world where they have succeeded in creating an alliance so integrated among countries that are so different, in order to bring peace. I will not let this heritage be destroyed. ...If you let the euro be destroyed, you take the risk of destroying Europe. Those who would destroy the euro will bear the responsibility for the resurgence of war on our continent."
The unstated subtext of Sarkozy's statement is this: The Germans attacked France in two barbaric wars in the 20th century, and if the German taxpayer refuses now to bail out France and the rest of Europe, then Germany will be responsible for another barbaric war. Le Monde (Paragraph updated - 20-Oct)
According to expectations inferred from various news reports, the meeting on Sunday, October 23, will announce the following:
Some analysts suggest that this "insurance" concept will have unintended consequences and actually hasten a crisis, since the 80% uninsured bonds will create a dangerous disequilibrium. Guardian
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Furious demonstrators rioted in from of Greece's parliament building in Syntagma Square in central Athens on Wednesday, for the largest and most violent anti-austerity protests so far, on the first day of a two-day strike that's bringing the country to a standstill. Explosions could be heard as protesters throw rocks and Molotov cocktails, while police responded with tear gas and stun grenades. One protester was quoted as saying, "Who are they trying to fool? They won’t save us. With these measures the poor become poorer and the rich richer. Well I say: 'No, thank you. I don’t want your rescue.'" On Thursday, the parliament will be voting essentially to dismantle Greece's social system, with such measures as lower wages, lower pensions, more tax rises, more spending cuts, layoffs of tens of thousands of public sector workers, and repudiation of many labor union collective bargaining agreements. Protest rallies were also organized in other Greek cities, including in Thessaloniki, Patra and Volos, as well as on the island of Crete. Kathimerini
Turkey's army crossed the border into northern Iraq on Wednesday in pursuit of PKK militants, backed by fighter jets bombing PKK camps, with commando units being dropped into northern Iraq by helicopters. Clashes were still under way at this writing late Wednesday ET. The incursion was in response to simultaneous coordinated attacks by some 200 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists on Turkish security outputs in southeastern Turkey, killing at least 24 soldiers and wounding 18 others. Hurriyet (Istanbul)
Dinh La Thang, Vietnam's transport minister, posted a statement late on Tuesday ordering all senior ministry officials and executives of corporations not to play golf. According to the statement, some ministry officials "have not actively given direction or administered their work, leading to the slow handling of affairs, which affects progress on projects and general operations One of the causes of this condition comes from staff spending too much time playing golf (including on holidays)." Telegraph (London)
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Carla Bruni-Sarkozy, the wife of French President Nicolas Sarkozy, has given birth to a girl at a maternity clinic in Paris. The girl is the French first couple's first baby since their marriage in 2008, although Bruni has one 10-year-old son from a previous relationship and thrice-married Sarkozy has three children, aged 14 to 26. Sarkozy was not present for the birth, as he was meeting with financial officials in Frankfurt, after an early morning visit to Bruni in the hospital. AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 20-Oct-11 World View -- Sheer desperation grows among Europeans
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Oct-2011)
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Greece facing nationwide general strike on Wednesday and Thursday
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Israel exchanges Gilad Shalit for 1,027 Palestinians
* Greece facing nationwide general strike on Wednesday and Thursday
* Merkel says euro crisis is moving 'millimeter by millimeter'
* Thailand's troops race to protect Bangkok from floods
 |
Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who was captured by Hamas five years ago and has been held incommunicado in the Gaza Strip every since, was flown to his parents' home in northern Israel on Tuesday. Hundreds of flag-waving well-wishers lined the streets of Shalit’s rural home town. Many danced as a ceremonial shofar horn was blown when he arrived at nightfall. At the same time, 477 Palestinians were freed from Israeli jails, the first of over 1027 Palestinians to be freed in the exchange deal, which had been mediated by Egypt. Over 250,000 Palestinians gather in Gaza City's main square to celebrate the release of the Palestinian prisoners. Many of the released Palestinians had been jailed for committing terrorist acts. VOA and Ynet
The prisoner swap was a major change in policy for Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had opposed such prisoner swaps in the past. The change is attributed to a dramatic decline in violence between Israelis and Paletinians, brought about by three factors: the construction of a barrier separating Israel and the West Bank, improved intelligence on Palestinian militants, and, perhaps most significantly, closer cooperation between the Israeli Defense Forces and the Palestinian Authority's security forces and police, which oppose a violent uprising and see Hamas as an enemy. CS Monitor
Greece's two biggest labor unions, covering public and private sector workers, have called for a general nationwide strike on Wednesday and Thursday, to protest the austerity measures that the parliament is voting on to comply with the requirements of an EU bailout. Government departments, businesses, offices and shops are all expected to be shut. Planes, trains, buses, taxis and lorries will not be operating. And for the first time, small business owners and shopkeepers are taking part. BBC
In an attempt to further reduce market expectations that the planned meeting for Sunday October 23 of the European finance ministers will actually accomplish anything, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday said that officials from the 17-nation euro area are moving "millimeter by millimeter" on solving the crisis. "These sovereign debts have built up over decades, so they won’t be ended with one summit," she said. Bloomberg
Three months of heavy monsoon rains have damaged the homes and livelihoods of millions of people in Thailand, and forced tens of thousands to seek refuge in shelters. Currently about one third of Thailand's provinces are affected by the floods, which reached several metres deep in places. Thai troops raced against time on Tuesday to pile more than a million sandbags onto floodwalls on the edge of Bangkok, to keep the nation's capital from being flooded. But the authorities have failed to protect a number of major industrial parks from the gushing brown water, and Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra warned that the threat to the capital had not yet passed. Bangkok Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 19-Oct-11 World View -- Israel exchanges Gilad Shalit for 1,027 Palestinians
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(19-Oct-2011)
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Hopes for a euro solution next weekend fade as the hours pass
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Hopes for a euro solution next weekend fade as the hours pass
* Moody's warns France about its AAA debt rating
* Kenya's army prepares to fight the 'Mother of all Battles'
* Use of heavy weapons grows in Sanaa, Yemen
* U.S. deploys troops on border with Pakistan
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I like to say that days like Monday would be totally hilarious, if the consequences weren't so serious. During the last two days, the G20 (Group of 20) world finance ministers and central bankers met to find a way to end the world financial crisis, expecially in Europe. The tone was set by US Treasury secretary Timothy Geithner, who said that the Europeans had "six days to save the world." He was referring to the October 23 (Sunday) meeting. You'll recall that I recently reported that French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised that "By the end of the month, we will have responded to the crisis issue and to the vision issue." Well, expectations for next Sunday's meeting have been sky high, as the Europeans have promised to announce three things:
Unfortunately, the math doesn't work out. If the problem were just Greece, perhaps they could find a solution. But if Greece defaults, then the "contagion" will cause Italy and Spain to default, and then there won't be enough money to bail everyone out. As we've said many times in the last two years, there is literally no solution to these problems. If any solution existed, they would have found it by now, but none exists. Bloomberg
Expectations were very high on Monday morning that the Europeans would come up with a master plan to save the world next weekend. But then Moody's put France on notice that it could soon lose its AAA rating, joining Italy and Spain (and the U.S.), which have already lost their AAA ratings. And then Germany's finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, announced that there would NOT be a "big bazooka" rescue deal on Sunday, as analysts are hoping for. His remarks caused markets to plummet. According to one analyst, "German officials clearly decided that a degree of expectation management was needed, and a statement was made warning that if anyone expected a package to be in place by next Monday then they were setting themselves up for disappointment." Guardian
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Faced with repeated kidnapping of French and Spanish aid workers by al-Shabaab terrorists from Somalia, as well as attacks on refugee camps on Keyna's soil, Kenya's army invaded Somalia on Sunday, backed by helicopters and tanks, and supported by bombers. Both Kenyan and Somali government forces are headed for the region near Qoqani, over 600 km south of Mogadishu. Al-Shabaab has mobilised hundreds of fighters and confiscated vehicles to transport them to the same region, with a major battle expected in the coming days in the nearby town of Afmadow. Al Shabaab spokesman Sheikh Ali Mohamud Rage has threatened terror attacks on Kenyan cities. "Kenya has peace, its cities have tall buildings and business is booming there, while Somalia is in chaos. If your government ignores our calls to stop its aggression on Somali soil, we will strike at the heart of your interests," he said in an address intended for the Kenyan population. The Nation (Nairobi)
Rockets, mortars and heavy machine-guns are being increasingly used in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, in battles between the government forces of president Ali Abdullah Saleh versus the tribes and rebels opposing the government. Saleh accuses his opponents of trying to stage a coup. "They are insane people who can't sleep and only want to take power." BBC
Reports are surfacing that the U.S. has moved hundreds of new troops to the Afghanistan area bordering Pakistan's insurgent infested North Waziristan tribal region, along with heavy artillery, helicopter gunships and sealed movement on the border. The abrupt deployment of US forces near the border area with Pakistan has escalated tension in the militancy plagued North Waziristan tribal region, as U.S. forces immediately sealed the main road connecting Pakistan border town of Ghulam Khan and Khost for traffic. Pakistani security officials have confirmed the development, but there is no word from U.S. and Nato forces. Times of India
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 18-Oct-11 World View -- Kenya's army prepares to fight the 'Mother of all Battles'
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(18-Oct-2011)
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Kenya sends troops into Somalia in major policy shift
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Tension growing in China over self-immolation of Tibetan monks
* Toothless Arab League fails to suspend Syria's membership
* Kenya sends troops into Somalia in major policy shift
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A former Buddhist monk set himself on fire Sunday to protest Chinese rule in Tibet, shouting "Tibet needs freedom!" Police put out the fire and carried the man off. Alarm is growing in Beijing and among Tibetans of the growing trend of self-immolations by Tibetan monks -- eight so far this year, with at least four deaths. In the last two weeks alone, there have been five self-immolations in the town of Aba, site of the Kirti monastery, in Sichuan province. The protests have not yet spread to Tibet province. Chinese officials are reacting to the deteriorating situation by making numerous arrests and turning the monastery into a virtual prison. AP and Telegraph
According to Tibetan sources in the Sichuan province of China, leaflets in the Tibetan language have been circulating in the Tibetan areas of the province calling for a day of protests and fasting on Wednesday, October 19 to condemn the continued oppression of the Tibetans by the Chinese and the military detention of a large number of Tibetan monks of the Kirti monastery in the province since March following the self-immolation of a young monk. South Asia Analysis Group (SAAG)
With the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad continuing to massacre innocent Arabs, the Arab league met on Sunday to discuss a motion to suspend Syria's membership. After meeting for several hours, the members failed to agree on a suspension, with opposition from Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon and Yemen. Instead, they asked Syria to stop the massacres within 15 days, and if Syria failed to meet that deadline, then they threatened to hold another meeting. AP
In a major policy shifts, Kenya's troops are invading the territory of Somalia to pursue militant al-Shabab groups who have been launching attacks onto Kenya's soil. This follows numerous recent attacks and threats from al-Shabab. Though Kenya has one of the largest militaries in East Africa, second only to Ethiopia, its Army has very little battlefield experience, and would face substantial challenges in Somalia. Somalia's government is protesting the invasion. CS Monitor
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 17-Oct-11 World View -- Tension growing in China over self-immolation of Tibetan monks
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(17-Oct-2011)
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Germany makes 'historic decision' to sell tanks to Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Germany makes 'historic decision' to sell tanks to Saudi Arabia
* No decision on future U.S. troop presence in Iraq
* Son of Anwar al-Awlaki killed by American drone in Yemen
* Yemen's security forces massacre unarmed protesters, in new surge of violence
* Left-wing protests surge globally, as violence strikes Rome, Italy
* Peanut butter prices poised to soar next month
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In a 'historic' reversal of decades of foreign policy, Germany has decided to sell more than 200 of Germany's most modern "Leopard" tank to Saudi Arabia, replacing their ancient tanks. Germany has a decades old policy of not selling weapons to "crisis regions," as well as not making weapons deals of which Israel disapproves. The €5 billion ($6.9 billion) deal was proposed last year, before the "Arab spring," when relations with Saudi Arabia were improving. Israel did not object to the deal, because the Saudis were seen as a counterbalance to Iran. When the secret deal became public this summer, it provoked controversy in and out of Germany. Finally, Chancellor Angela Merkel was forced to publicly state Germany's change of policy: "The export of weapons of war is not permitted, unless specific foreign or security policy interests on Germany's part speak for granting authorization as an exception in individual cases." And an armed Saudi Arabia would function as a counterbalance to Iran and its nuclear ambitions. Spiegel
The Obama administration denied a news report on Saturday that it had made a final decision to pull almost all U.S. troops out of Iraq by year-end. U.S. and Iraqi officials have been negotiating the prospects for up to several thousand U.S. troops staying, but the main sticking point has been an Iraqi refusal to grant the military personnel legal immunity, as Washington has demanded. But the Obama administration insisted no decision had been reached about the training relationship with Iraq or how many, if any, U.S. troops might stay past the December 31 deadline. The AP report said only about 160 soldiers attached to the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad would stay behind. Reuters
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Abdul-Rahman al-Awlaki, the 21 year old son of Anwar al-Awlaki, was killed by an American drone strike on Friday. Anwar al-Awlaki, a leading terrorist in Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), was himself recently killed by a drone strike. (See "2-Oct-11 World View -- Al-Awlaki killing solidifies Obama strategy on targeting terrorists") Friday's strike killed nine of AQAP's militants, and was only one of three drone missile strikes on Friday. AP
At least 10 people were killed and 38 others were wounded in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, in a new surge of violence on Saturday. Yemen's security forces opened fire to disperse tens of thousands of unarmed youthful demonstrators. President Ali Abdullah Saleh's return from Saudi Arabia, where he recovered from a terrorist bomb attack in June, has done nothing to calm the protests and violence. To the contrary, the return of Saleh appears to have heightened the confrontation on both sides. In a separate development, eyewitnesses and residents report heavy clashes in Sanaa districts between Yemeni security forces and fighters from the Hashid tribe, led by Sadiq Al-Ahmar. CNN
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The massive left-wing protests against the financial crisis began slowly in Greece and Spain, but have reached Wall Street and are accelerating across the country and around the world. On Saturday there were large protests in Auckland, Sydney, Tokyo, Taipei, Hong Kong, Lisbon, Athens, Paris, Dublin, Madrid, Berlin, Hamburg, Leipzig, Frankfurt, London. There were 5,000 people in midtown Manhattan, with dozens arrested. Reuters
The worst violence occurred in Rome. Clad in black with their faces covered, protesters threw rocks, bottles and incendiary devices at banks and Rome police in riot gear. With clubs and hammers, they destroyed bank ATMs, set trash bins on fire and assaulted at least two news crews from Sky Italia. Riot police charged the protesters repeatedly, firing water cannons and tear gas. Around 70 people were injured, according to news reports, including one man who tried to stop the protesters from throwing bottles. TV footage showed one young woman with blood covering her face, while the ANSA news agency said a man had lost two fingers when a firecracker exploded. AP
Peanut butter lovers should stock up now. Prices for peanut butter are expect to surge 30-40%, starting at the end of October. The problem is that the intense heat and drought that hit the southern U.S. this year has resulted in the worst peanut harvest seasons that growers have had in years. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 16-Oct-11 World View -- Left-wing protests surge globally, as violence strikes Rome, Italy
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(16-Oct-2011)
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Iran's leaders try to refight the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution
I often quote Debka reports because they have unique content based on intelligence sources not available elsewhere, and because they're right more often than they're wrong.
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According to Debka, the motivation for Iran's plot to murder the Saudi ambassador to Washingon is a bid by the Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to draw the United States into a limited military clash. This would accomplish several objectives: To head off unrest within Iran; to deflect attention from Iran's nuclear program; and to win international acclaim by being victimized by the U.S.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly the kind of strategy that I've written about many times. (See, for example, "China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount" from 2008.)
Iran's last crisis war was the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, followed by the Iran/Iraq war that ended in 1988. Like any crisis war, it unified the country behind its leaders.
Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and has experienced great disunity, including massive student protests, along with political opposition that's expected to last for years. Iran's geriatric leaders are desperately searching for a strategy that will unify the country again behind its leaders, just as occurred in the after the 1979 revolution.
The strategy they're using is the strategy that worked in 1979 -- blame everything on the Great Satan (the United States), and even provoke a military action that will force the population to support its leaders, just as Iraq's 1980 invasion of Iran did.
The hardline Supreme Leader is attempting relive the glory days of his youth with a partial replay of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. At that time, the leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was successful in unifying the entire country behind the Great Islamic Revolution by blaming everything on imperialism by the US and the West. Today's desperate hope is to provoke a military action by Israel or the U.S. that would unify the country again.
If Iran's leaders understood generational theory, they would know why this strategy, which worked so well in 1979, cannot possibly work today, even if they did provoke an attack. In 1979, Iran was in a generational Crisis era, and the people were eager for a confrontation. Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era, and the people have no desire for military action.
The Debka report also explains why a Mexican drug cartel was to be used for the assassination, even though doing so seemed almost incompetent. For at least 20 years, Iran's Lebanese proxy Hizbollah has kept itself in funds by drug trafficking, gunrunning and fencing stolen goods and today controls entire networks in Latin America and Africa.
As it turns out, the assassination attempt has ended in an embarrassing failure for Iran, making them look incompetent and weak. This is certain to have repercussions with Iran's government, and will energize the opposition movement that sparked large demonstrations following the allegedly fraudulent 2009 reelection of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 15-Oct-11 News -- Iran's assassination plot goal: Armed clash with U.S.
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Oct-2011)
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Left-wing protests continue to grow on Wall Street and in Europe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* The U.S. will send troops to central African nations
* LRA head Joseph Kony seeks theocratic state based on Ten Commandments
* Left-wing protests continue to grow on Wall Street and in Europe
* All forms of public transport in Athens paralyzed by strikes
* Debate over 'Leftist Terrorism' erupts in Germany
* Wall Street protests spread to London
* Distrust of Egypt's interim military government grows
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In a surprise announcement late on Friday afternoon, the Obama administration announced that it would be sending troops to several central African countries, including Uganda, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. According to the State Department:
"With the consent of the Government of Uganda, and as notified to Congress, the United States has sent a small number of U.S. military advisors to the region to assist the forces that are pursuing the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and seeking to bring top commanders to justice. These advisors will work with our regional partners and the African Union in the field to strengthen information-sharing, enhance coordination and planning, and improve the overall effectiveness of military operations and the protection of civilians. These advisors will not engage LRA forces unless necessary for self-defense."
According to a statement by President Barack Obama, "I believe that deploying these U.S. armed forces furthers U.S. national security interests and foreign policy, and will be a significant contribution toward counter-LRA efforts in central Africa." State Dept. and Dept. of Defense
Joesph Kony, head of the LRA, is accused of war crimes and is wanted by the International Criminal Court. Kony is a self-styled mystic and religious prophet, claims to be fighting on orders from God to establish theocratic rule based on the Biblical Ten Commandments. LRA terrorists move in very small groups that defy organized forces looking for them. These small groups attack civilian villages, torturing, mutilating and killing men, raping women, and kidnapping children as sex slaves. AFP
Fourteen "Occupy Wall Street" protesters in lower Manhattan were arrested on Friday, for performing such acts as overturning trash baskets or hurling bottles. A much larger confrontation was threatened over plans to close Zuccotti Park for cleaning. Zucotti was the site of many of the demonstrations against the financial industry, and there were concerns over violence if the police went ahead with plans to close the park. However, the confrontation was averted when the park closing was postponed. Bloomberg
"Occupy Wall Street" protesters are swelling and clashing with police across the country. Scores of protesters were arrested in Denver, Seattle, San Diego and New York, while similar demonstrations were scheduled to take place in Washington, Orlando and Atlanta. CNN
Union leaders were ratcheting up their action on Friday, in a bid to overturn draft legislation that implements further cuts to wages and pensions, as required by the European Union for further bailouts. (The reasoning is: Why suffer austerity programs, if the EU is going to supply the bailout money anyway?) There were no services by taxi drivers, or on the Athens metro, tram, city buses, trolley buses and the electric railway. Larger strikes are planned for next week. Kathimerini
So far, authorities have found at least 17 incendiary devices near German rail facilities in and around Berlin this week. They were planted next to train tracks and near signalling equipment. Two have gone off. Though no injuries have yet been reported, the discoveries have resulted in significant train delays and several cancellations. Many officials are concerned that the country is seeing the beginnings of a wave of leftist terror. The fear is a renaissance of something like the Red Army Faction, the terror group which perpetrated dozens of killings in Germany over three decades starting in the early 1970s. Spiegel
More than 13,700 people have expressed their support on Facebook for a Saturday protest in London's financial district, demonstrating against "corporate greed." One protester said that they were likely to protest "outside selected corporations' headquarters as well as demonstrating in front of shops; everything is on the table." Independent (London)
The distrust between pro-democracy activists in Egypt and the governing Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) has deepened after last weekends bloody clash between Coptic Christian protesters and the military. On Friday, hundreds of protesters marched from Egypt's pre-eminent mosque to a central Cairo cathedral in a show of Muslim-Christian unity, chanting slogans against the country's interim military rulers. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 15-Oct-11 News -- Iran's assassination plot goal: Armed clash with U.S.
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(15-Oct-2011)
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Burma's ties with India deepen, as ties with China weaken
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* World opinion split on Iran's alleged assassination plot
* Obama accuses Iran of 'dangerous and reckless behavior'
* Slovakia votes to approve Europe's extended bailout fund
* Burma's ties with India deepen, as ties with China weaken
* Bhutan's king marries a commoner
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Manssor Arbabsiar, the Texan charged in the alleged plot to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S., Adel A. al-Jubeir, was actively working for Iranian handlers involved in the drug trade, according to U.S. officials. They believe that he was hired by the Iranian Qods Force, an elite covert arm of the Iranian military involved in drug smuggling. The Qods Force has built up a significant presence in Latin America, especially in Venezuela, where it has forged close ties with the government of anti-U.S. President Hugo Chavez. The organization has also long had extremely close ties with, and directly funded, Hezbollah -- a Mideast terror group that has long been linked to the drug trade and money laundering. But there has been no clear evidence linking the Qods Force directly to narcotics smuggling or to dealing with the Mexican cartels. However, it is not known whether Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, were involved. MSNBC
Iran has vehemently denied having to do with the alleged plot. However, President Barack Obama said it was part of a pattern of "dangerous and reckless behavior" by the Iranian government. He added, "We believe that even if at the highest levels there was not detailed operational knowledge, there has to be accountability with respect to anybody in the Iranian government engaging in this kind of activity." However, some analysts are questioning the credibility of the charges. The alleged plot called for killing al-Jubeir by blowing up a coffee shop in Washington while he was eating, and some are saying that Iran would never risk a major act of war like that, when they could simply hire a sharpshooter to do the job. AP
As we recently reported, Slovakia's parliament voted to oppose proposals to expand Europe's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), from its current €250 billion ($338 billion) to €440 billion, a proposal that required the approval of all 17 euro zone nations. However, Slovakia's opposition made it clear that if the government of of Prime Minister Iveta Radicova collapsed, then they would reverse themselves and support the EFSF expansion. Both of those things have now occurred, and Slovakia has approved the expansion. European officials are continuing to look for ways to "kick the can down the road," hoping to continue to do so until 2014, when a new EU treaty takes effect. In the meantime, it's widely expected now that EU officials, at a scheduled October 23 meeting, will approve the next €8 billion bailout payment to Greece for early November, as the cheapest way to give officials several more months to figure out what to do next. Wall Street Journal (Access)
Following Burma's suspension of a big hydroelectric project funded by China, Burmese President Thein Sein is visiting India to deepen ties between the two countries. He will be meeting with India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, to discuss joint projects in such areas as security, trade, energy, infrastructure development, education and agriculture, especially along the two-countries' common 1600 km border. International Business Times (Delhi)
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In today's style and fashion news, there was a royal wedding in Bhutan on Thursday, joining King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, 31, and Jetsun Pema, 21, the daughter of a pilot. Oxford educated King Wangchuck has pledged to love a single wife, in contrast to his father, who, in 1988, chose to tie the knot with four brides. King Wangchuck is the son of his father's third wife. LA Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 14-Oct-11 World View -- Obama accuses Iran of 'dangerous and reckless behavior'
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(14-Oct-2011)
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Burma (Myanmar) continues to become the 'anti-China'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Burma (Myanmar) continues to become the 'anti-China'
* China and Burma 'agree to cooperated' on dam project
* Saudi Arabia says that Iran must 'pay the price' for assassination attempt
* China's Mandarin language continues to lose popularity in favor of English
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The civilian government of Burma (Myanmar) has freed more than 180 political prisoners, as part of a general amnesty of 15,000 announced in May 2011. As we described in "3-Oct-11 News -- Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China," Burma is in a generational Unraveling era where the military government has been replaced by a civilian government, and restrictions on political expression are being loosened, though not nearly fast enough for many people. The 2007 massacre of peaceful protesters in the "88 Generation" is similar to China's 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, but Burma's Unraveling era is taking a very different direction than China did. The suspension of the dam project indicates that Burma is turning away from China. The gradual moves toward greater political freedom may be a sign that the people of Burma want their country to be an "un-China" or "anti-China" in some sense. However, if there's any sign of significant ethnic violence in Burma, then the new political freedom may be short-lived. BBC
According to China's state-run news service,
"China and Myanmar on Monday agreed to properly settle matters related a suspended joint hydropower project in Myanmar, and both sides pledged to increase cooperation and work toward bringing mutual benefits to the two nations. ...The two foreign ministers also exchanged views on bilateral relations and other issues of common concern, with both voicing commitments to push forward the bilateral comprehensive and strategic partnership in a bid to achieve joint development, said the press release."
What's remarkable about this news story is that it says absolutely nothing (it reminds me of Merkel and Sarkozy making a big announcement on Sunday that they had a plan to have a plan), and yet the article is extremely deferential to Burma. China seems afraid that they're losing Burma as an ally. Xinhua
Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been deteriorating anyway, especially after the Saudis' support for Bahrain's government in cracking down on Shia protesters, earlier this year. (See "15-Mar-11 News -- Bahrain uprising becomes explosive as Saudi troops arrive") Now, the alleged scheme to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. has infuriated the Saudis. Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to Washington, said Wednesday the evidence was "overwhelming" and "clearly shows official Iranian responsibility" for the plot. He indicated that Iran will 'pay the price' for its actions. VOA
Education officials in China are becoming increasingly worried about the large-scale weakening of the language abilities of native speakers of Mandarin. Although China's education system teaches Mandarin for 12 years from primary school to high school, more than 30% of college students fail tests that evaluate language abilities. There are two major factors that explain the withering popularity of Mandarin. First, more and more students have rushed to English traning classes, because better English can mean a higher salary. And second, the use of computers makes it unnecessary for students to learn how to write Chinese characters. According to one educator, every Chinese character is a light, but now many have dimmed. "We need to re-light them to provide us a guiding light." Xinhua
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
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(13-Oct-2011)
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European 'troika' approves Greece's next bailout payment
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Slovakia parliament rejects enlarged bailout fund
* European 'troika' approves Greece's next bailout payment
* Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit to be freed in prisoner swap with Hamas
* Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre
* Egypt's deputy prime minister resigns in protest
* Egypt's SCAF progressively losing its support
* U.S. accuses Iran of plot to kill Saudi ambassador
Slovakia parliament rejects enlarged bailout fund
Who knew that the fate of the entire world depended on Slovakia's parliament? The proposals to expand Europe's bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), from its current €250 billion ($338 billion) to €440 billion required the approval of all 17 euro zone nations. Even Germany approved the expansion, as we reported a couple of weeks ago. A couple of days ago, Malta approved the expansion, leaving Slovakia as the only holdout. On Tuesday, it seemed like the whole world's attention was riveted on a minute by minute basis on the parliament of Slovakia, where there is substantial opposition to the bailout fund, since Slovakia has already been forced to pay a lot of money to bail out Greece, where people have much higher pensions than Slovakians have. In the end, Slovakia's parliament rejected the EFSF expansion, causing the government of Slovakia's Prime Minister Iveta Radicova to collapse. However, there'll be another vote in a few days, and the opposition party is promising to support the enlargement this time, now that Radicova's government has fallen. Slovak Spectator and Bloomberg European 'troika' approves Greece's next bailout paymentDespite widely publicized failures to achieve the conditions that had been set for Greece to qualify for the next bailout payment, the European "troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) auditors have recommended that Greece receive the next bailout payment anyway, despite "slippages in the implementation of some of the agreed measures." The payment still has to receive final approval by the euro zone finance ministers and the IMF. It's thought that the positive recommendation was caused by a desire to give Europe's banks more time to prepare for an inevitable Greek default. Irish Times
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With Egypt acting as mediator, Hamas and Israel have agreed to a prisoner swap deal for Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier who has been held captive by Hamas for five years. He will be exchanged for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The draft deal was signed in Cairo on Tuesday, and it was ratified by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet early on Wednesday morning. Bloomberg and Haaretz
The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has been ruling Egypt since Hosni Mubarak was forced to step down at the beginning of 2011, is drawing intense criticism for the role they played in the massacre of Coptic Christians on Sunday evening, during a peaceful march. As we reported yesterday, the state-run Maspero TV station incited violence by falsely reporting attacks by Copts, and the armed forces killed and injured hundreds of protestors by running them over with armored vehicles. According to one Egyptian political analyst,
"This [incident] reflects an unprecedented failure in running the country during the transitional period. Since 11 February, the country has been going from worse to worst. If the military stays in power for much longer, the country might head towards more violence, and social peace will be in jeopardy."
Another analyst added, "The SCAF's performance on the sectarian portfolio has been really bad since the revolution. They are dealing with the matter the same way Mubarak was. What new regime are we speaking of?" Al-Masry Al-Youm (Cairo)
Hazem El-Beblawi, who serves in Egypt's SCAF government as both finance minister and deputy foreign minister, handed in his resignation on Tuesday in protest over the government's handling of the Sunday massacre, saying that "he can't work like this." Sunday's bloodshed was seen by many activists as a turning point in Egypt's already chaotic transition: the deadliest use of force against protesters by the military, which has touted itself as the "protector of the revolution." Criticism has been mounting that the military, which took power after Mubarak's ouster, has adopted the same tactics as the former regime and has been slow to bring real change. Associated Press
Long before Sunday's incident, it's been clear that Egypt's SCAF government has been losing support of the Egyptian people who brought about the ouster of Hosni Mubarak. The military establishment has continued in the way of the old regime by reviving the Emergency Law, trying civilians in military courts, and delaying handing over the rule to civilian authority. According to one Egyptian analyst:
"We must remember that the Egyptian revolution did not [take] the rule into its hands and is therefore not responsible for what is happening. The only one responsible is the SCAF, which is standing in for both the president of the republic and the parliament during the interim period. The Egyptians rose up against Hosni Mubarak and toppled him, and when the army [joined the protesters] on the streets, the rebels celebrated their victory and returned home, believing that the SCAF would represent the revolution and realize all of its goals. This was a serious misreading [of reality]."The military is part of the old regime and was never part of the revolution. We were wrong not to realize that the great national role of the Egyptian military is one thing and the political role of the SCAF is another. The SCAF was not revolutionary and did not oppose [the methods of] the Mubarak regime, not for a single day. It was simply a part of [this regime]."
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U.S. officials on Tuesday accused Iran's government of plotting to assassinate Adel A. al-Jubeir, Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to the United States, and a close adviser to Saudi's King Abdullah. The Justice Department charged two Iranians — one of them a U.S. citizen — accusing them of orchestrating an elaborate murder-for-hire plot that targeted al-Jubeir. The Iranians planned to employ Mexican drug traffickers to kill Jubeir with a bomb as he ate at a Washington restaurant, U.S. officials said. Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 12-Oct-11 World View -- Criticism of Egypt's armed forces intensifies after 'Black Sunday' Copt massacre
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(12-Oct-2011)
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Report: Merkel has concluded that Greek default is inevitable
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Wall Street stocks soar 3% on empty promise by Sarkozy/Merkel
* Report: Merkel has concluded that Greek default is inevitable
* With elections approaching, Egypt's government in crisis over Sunday's violence
* Egypt's state television admits to making up news that incited violence
* Youtube video shows army tanks running over Christians
* Semblance of a civil war in Homs, Syria
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On Sunday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to solve the euro debt crisis by the end of the month, but refused to give any details. "By the end of the month, we will have responded to the crisis issue and to the vision issue," said Sarkozy, as a previously scheduled meeting for next week was postponed again. But that empty promise was enough for traders, who are now convinced that the crisis is so bad that European leaders will be forced into some multi-hundred-billion euro bailout program that will pour liquidity into the stock market, raising stock prices, as happened in 2009 with America's TARP program. As a result, traders pushed Wall Street stocks up 3% on Monday. AP
When Angela Merkel was pressed for details, she said, "The French president said we are not going into any details today. The whole package will be ready by the end of the month." A commentator adds: "If Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy had been captaining the Titanic when the iceberg was spotted, they would probably have issued a statement resolving to avoid it." Sky News and Economist
According to the report:
"FT Deutschland leads with the story this morning - sourced to several German government officials - that Angela Merkel is pushing for an involuntary Greek default. The paper writes that the German government has now concluded that Greece was insolvent and that it would have to default on its debt. Germany was now trying to persuade its European partners to accept the inevitable, but was still running into opposition from the European Commission, the ECB, and several member states, including France."
The report concludes by quoting European Commission president José Manuel Barroso warning that a Greek default would lead to disaster. EuroIntelligence
Merkel is risking a "snowball effect," according to another analyst, who says a "Pandora's box" would be opened. "It would be a complete disaster, a signal that sovereign debt is not safe. Investors would pull their deposits out of Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy and set off bank runs across Europe. The French are against doing this and so is the European Central Bank. They know banks need more time to adjust. We don't think Europe will pull the trigger." Telegraph
Sunday's violence, the bloodiest since the protests began in January, resulting in the deaths of 24 Coptic Christians, is igniting fears of widespread sectarian violence across the country. Egyptian presidential candidate and former Arab League president Amr Moussa warned that Sunday's event was a "big catastrophe" that is not merely the latest episode of sectarian tension but the beginning of a faceoff between Egypt’s Muslims and Christians, not only in Cairo but all over Egypt. "This cannot be repeated; we are at the door of a huge confrontation, not just in Maspero but all over Egypt." Al-Ahram
Maspero, Egypt’s state television, announced on Monday that there are no deaths among the military forces after previously reporting that there were during the Sunday clashes. They falsely reported that the Coptic protesters attacked the military forces with weapons, resulting in the deaths of three soldiers, and they called on the Egyptian people to take to the streets to protect the armed forces. The news agitated many Muslims who took up arms and clashed with protesters, both Muslims and Coptic Christians. Bikya Masr (Cairo)
The video is provided by al-Arabia, shows armored vehicles running over people, killing and injuring scores of them:
The days of Syrian regime forces massacring peaceful, unarmed protesters appear to be over in Homs, the third largest city in Syria. Armed civilians, along with military defectors, are now battling Bashar al-Assad's regime security forces in formerly peaceful neighborhoods. Perhaps the most dramatic facet of the struggle is a series of assassinations this past week that have left nearly a dozen professors, doctors and informers dead in a paroxysm of violence. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Syria is in a generation Awakening era, and so a crisis civil war is impossible. If a civil war begins, it will fizzle quickly. NY Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 11-Oct-11 World View -- Egypt in shock over bloody massacre of Coptic Christians
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Oct-2011)
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23 dead in clash between Coptic Christians and Egyptian security
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* 23 dead in clash between Coptic Christians and Egyptian security
* Sarkozy/Merkel announce non-plan, as Dexia bank breaks up
* European banks much worse off than reported
* Belgium and France agree to break up collapsed Dexia Bank
* France and Turkey trade barbs on genocide and colonization
* China commemorates the centennial of the 1911 Xinhai Revolution
For some reason unknown to me, traffic to GenerationalDynamics.com suddenly more than doubled on Sunday. Let me welcome all the new visitors. I do try to answer all e-mail questions from readers, though I must again apologize that I've been getting behind. If something is urgent, please indicate so in the subject line, and I'll try to get to it right away. You might also try posting your question or comment in the Generational Dynamics forum. In any case, welcome!
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Twenty-three people, mostly Coptic Christians, died in clashes Sunday between Coptic Christians and Egyptian security forces in Cairo, Egypt. 174 people were injuried. The clashes occurred as thousands of Coptic Christians marched to protest a recent attack on a church. They came under assault by people in plain clothes who fired pellets at them and pelted them with stones. In the ensuing brawl, Copts used batons and security forces used guns. AFP
French President Nicolas Sarkozy almost had to cancel Sunday's meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel because his wife, Carla Bruni, was scheduled to give birth. He might as well have canceled the meeting, because at the end, Sarkozy and Merkel announced that they had a plan to save Europe, but that they'd supply the details later -- by the end of the month. It's known that they have a specific disagreement about the issue at hand -- how to recapitalize the banks after Greece defaults. Sarkozy wants the euro zone as a whole to recapitalize the banks, which Merkel wants each individual country to recapitalize its own banks. Sunday's postponement is only the latest in many months of postponements. "By the end of the month, we will have responded to the crisis issue and to the vision issue," said Sarkozy. Bloomberg
Europeans banks are much worse off than even the dire reports you read in the papers. Spreads are widening (that is, interest rates are rising sharply) and liquidity is drying up. The collapse of Drexia Bank is the tip of the iceberg. Europe's new European Financial Stability Facility (ESFS) is supposed to save the banks, but the money that Europe needs will overwhelm the €440 billion fund. Many analysts think that it will take at least €2 trillion and one analysts estimates that it will need to be over €6 trillion. John Mauldin
An announcement is expected on Monday providing details for the dismantling of Dexia Bank, the first major bank victim of Greece's debt crisis. Dexia’s breakup, three months after it got a clean bill of health in European Union stress tests, brought Europe’s banking crisis to a head. Dexia has units in both France and Belgium. France and Belgium rushed to protect their local units, they wrestled over responsibility for the troubled assets. When the details are announced, it's thought that the objective will be to protect individual bank depositers, while investors will have to take "haircuts" of 40-60%. France is one of only six countries left in the eurozone with an AAA rating from Moody's and S&P, and the French objective is to keep that rating. Bloomberg
Before a routine signing ceremony with Turkey, France's president Nicolas Sarkozy visited Armenia to make statements that Turkey should admit the allegation that massacres against Armenians in the last years of the Ottoman Empire amounted to genocide. Sarkozy implied that the timing was appropriate because of the approach of the 100th anniversary of the infamous campaign of 1915 that led to the cleansing of the native Armenian population of Turkey before the end of WWI that triggered the War of Liberation in which the Ottoman Empire ended as well. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s reply was interesting: France should first face its colonialist past in Africa before attacking Turkey’s past. Davutoglu was referring to the Turkish withdrawal, 100 years ago, from Libya and Algeria to leave the rule of the lands to Italy and France respectively. The next face-off between France and Turkey could occur in Syria. Hurriyet (Ankara)
The 1911 Revolution, or Xinhai Revolution, which began on Oct. 10, 1911 and led by Dr. Sun Yat-sen, founder of the Kuomintang, ended one of the world's longest periods of autocratic rule by toppling the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) and establishing a republican government. Imperial rule in China began in B.C. 221 under Emperor Qinshihuang. Xinhua
After the Revolution of 1911, there was no fundamental change in the semi-colonial, semi-feudal nature of Chinese society, the Chinese people remained in misery, and the bourgeois political parties and other political groups in China were unable to complete the historic mission of overthrowing imperialism and feudalism, according to Lin Jun, Chairman of the All-China Federation of Returned Overseas Chinese. "History convincingly proves that without the CPC [Communist Party of China], there would have been no New China, that only socialism can save China, and that only reform and opening up can develop China," said Lin, who speaks on behalf of the country's various people's organizations. Xinhua
China's 1911 revolution was a bloodless coup that resulted in the end of a 250 year old dynasty. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this was an Awakening era climax, similar to Richard Nixon's resignation in 1974. The 1911 revolution occurred midway between two extremely bloody, massive civil wars, the Taiping Rebellion of 1852-64, and the Communist Revolution of 1934-49, each slaughtering tens of millions of people. Today's China is in a generational Crisis era, and so no comparison to the 1911 revolution makes any sense. In particular, no bloodless coup is possible, as China heads for a new, massive, extremely bloody civil war.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 10-Oct-11 World View -- Sarkozy/Merkel announce non-plan, as Dexia bank breaks up
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Oct-2011)
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Arab and Christian graves vandalized in Arab section of Jaffa, Israel
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* North Korea threatens South Korea with military action
* Japan tries to resolve issue of North Korean abductions of Japanese
* Yemen's president Saleh again says that he'll step down
* Arab and Christian graves vandalized in Arab section of Jaffa, Israel
* Iraq sides with Syria and Iran against U.S. policy
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North Korea warned on Saturday it could take military action against South Korea in response to the South's "ceaseless provocative war moves." These claimed provocative moves included intrusioin of South Korean navy warships into North Korean waters, "while anti-communist right-wing conservative organizations scattered a lot of leaflets and undesirable USBs and pamphlets into areas of the north side (of the border)." It's hard to know what to make of these threats. On the one hand, the North Koreans make hysterical threats all the time. On the other hand, the North Koreans have militarily attacked the South Koreans twice in 2010, killing dozens of of people. The paranoid North Koreans could launch a new military attack at any time, with or without the hysterical threats. Yonhap
From the North Korean news service on Saturday:
"The bellicose forces at home and abroad kicked up extremely reckless rackets of military confrontation with the DPRK [North Korea] in south Korea in September.This is a military provocation to escalate military tension on the Korean Peninsula and an undisguised declaration of intention to do harm to the DPRK by force of arms.
Never before has there been such madcap DPRK-targeted saber-rattling including war confabs, war exercises and arms buildup as what happened last month.
Their saber-rattling was prompted by a sinister intention to derail the process for dialogue and peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Their reckless war moves are marring the atmosphere of dialogue and putting peace and stability on the peninsula at great peril. It admits of no argument that the U.S. and the south Korean authorities are chiefly to blame for confrontation hardly defused despite the DPRK's patient efforts for improving the inter-Korean relations and the wishes of the international community for dialogue."
Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is expressing his intention to visit North Korea to help resolve the long-standing issue of dozens of Japanese citizens abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s-80s. Some were forced to teach Japanese language and culture to spies. Rights groups say some of the older abductees were apparently killed so that their identities could be adopted by North Korean agents. VOA
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Repeating a pattern he's followed several times before, Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh said Saturday that he would step down within a few days, acceding to the demands of opposition activists who began protesting on January 22 of this year. The offer to step down is thought to be a ploy motivated by the award on Friday of the Nobel Peace Prize to Tawakul Karmal, a Yemeni activist leading demonstrations against Saleh. LA Times
As we recently reported, Israel's security agency Shin Bet has recorded a growing number of terrorist attacks in the last year by Jewish settlers and activists. Less than a week after the arson of a mosque in northern Israel, dozens of Christian and Muslim graves were vandalized in an Arab section of the Israeli city of Jaffa on Thursday or Friday. Among the words spray-painted in Hebrew on the gravestones were "price tag" and "death to all Arabs." The phrase "price tag" is frequently used by radical Israeli settlers to denote revenge attacks against Palestinians in response to moves by the Israeli government to evacuate illegal West Bank outposts, or as retribution for attacks by Palestinians. CNN
More than six months after the start of the Syrian uprising, Iraq is offering key moral and financial support to the country’s embattled president, Bashar al-Assad, undermining a central U.S. policy objective. This is part of a trend that Iraq is siding with Iran as the Sunni Arab nations, led by Saudi Arabia, become more closely aligned with Pakistan and China. Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 9-Oct-11 World View -- North Korea threatens South Korea with military action
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Oct-2011)
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Greenspan: All econometric models have failed
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Alan Greenspan: All econometric models have failed
* Italy and Spain debt downgraded, Belgium is next
* Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico
* Karzai: Taliban can't move a finger without Pakistan
* Israeli Security: Violence by Jewish settlers and activists is growing
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Appearing on CNBC on Friday morning, former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan explained why economists didn't predict the financial crisis:
"All the econometric models failed in 2008 - across the board. And the question is, would they have caught it if they had had more data.I will submit to you, given the existing econometric structure, you could fit the 2008 data, 2009, 2010, and you still wouldn't forecast it.
The crucial question is - there are many missing independent variables in these models."
This is exactly the point that I've been making for years -- and not just since 2008.
Macroeconomics models are completely static in time, and economists assume that the same macroeconomics model that worked in the 70s and 80s also work today, an assumption which is completely absurd on its face. As I've pointed out many times, economists have been consistently wrong about everything, at least since 1995. They didn't predict and can't explain the 1990s tech bubble, the real estate and credit bubbles, the financial crisis since 2007, where we are today, and what's coming next year.
Generational Dynamics is to macroeconomics as macroeconomics is to microeconomics. Macroeconomics models aggregate microeconomics models over the entire population, and Generational Dynamics models aggregate macroeconomic models over time.
Economist Peter Orszag appeared on CNBC at the same time, and said, "Most of the major econometric models -- the administration, the Fed, the CBO -- missed this because they were based on a time period that didn't have this kind of experience in it." That's exactly right. If you want to use econometric models to predict what's happening today, then you have to use data from the 1930s. Nothing since then is relevant. (CNBC)
Fitch Ratings service downgraded the credit ratings of bonds issued by Italy and Spain early Friday, and said its long-term outlook for both countries was negative. Fitch based its decision on the growing debt crisis in Europe and deteriorating prospects for getting deficits under control. Later in the day, Moody's Investors Service put Belgium on notice for a possible downgrade, citing the uncertainty of the costs for rescuing Dexia bank. ( "4-Oct-11 World View -- Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse") On Friday, Moody's also downgraded a dozen British and nine Portuguese banks. Each day, Europe is closer to the edge of the cliff. Canadian Broadcasting (CBC)
Evidence is growing that people with military training are perpetrating some of the most gruesome drug cartel violence in Mexico, leading to concern that Mexico's government no longer has control of the armed forces. The latest atrocity was the discover of 32 bodies scattered in houses in the port city of Veracruz this week, the latest sign that Mexico's drug-fueled violence is entering a new phase in which murky paramilitary-style squads are carrying out mass exterminations. Two weeks ago, gunmen dumped 35 semi-nude, mutilated bodies along a freeway underpass in Veracruz in broad daylight. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Mexico is headed for a new war, refighting the Mexican Revolution of the 1910s along the fault line separating the people of European ancestry versus the indigenous peoples ("Amerindians") of Mexico -- the Mayans in the south and the Aztecs and Commancheros in the north. This war is expected to spread into the southwestern United States. Miami Herald
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The already inflamed relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan became more tense on Friday when Afghanistan's president, in an interview on the tenth anniversary of the start of the Afghan war, blamed the Taliban insurgency squarely on Pakistan:
"On the overall policy of Pakistan toward Afghanistan and towards the Taliban, definitely, the Taliban will not be able to move a finger without Pakistani support.The fact is the Taliban were and are stationed, in terms of their political headquarters and operational headquarters, in Pakistan. We all know that. The Pakistanis know that. We know that.
We're not saying this in a manner of accusation and reprimand. We are saying this in a manner of a statement intended towards a solution of the problem."
Pakistan maintains it cut off ties to the Taliban and other militants following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan. BBC and AP
A violent attack on a mosque in Galilee, apparently carried out by settlers and right-wing Jewish activists -- is the latest sign that Jewish terrorism is increasing, according to Shin Bet, Israel's Security Agency. Shin Bet has recorded a growing number of these attacks, several dozen in the past year, including attacks like the one on Sunday against mosques, the uprooting of olive trees, the puncturing of tires on military vehicles, the harassment of left-wing activists, IDF officers and Shin Bet officials and others. The fear within the Shin Bet and the IDF is these attacks will continue to increase as the Palestinians move forward with their unilateral bid for statehood at the United Nations, and if large-scale demonstrations erupt in Palestinian towns. Jerusalem Post and Haaretz
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Oct-2011)
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Senior US officials meet with Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Left-wing and anarchist protests increase in Europe and America
* Labor unions join 'Occupy Wall Street' protests across America
* Wall Street protests spark threats of violence
* Senior US officials meet with Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
* Abbas appeals to Europeans to support Palestinian statehood
* Senate delays vote on bill to impose tariff sanctions on China
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Anti-austerity protests that began last summer in Athens and then fizzled in the summer heat were renewed this week, as the cabinet and the parliament are discussing implementation of austerity measures imposed by European officials as conditions to receive the next bailout payment. The protests have been largely led by public sector unions who brought the country to a standstill on Wednesday with a nationwide strike, and are planning another strike on October 19, this time to include private sector workers. Violence has been sporadic, but fears are growing that some unexpected spark could ignite a full-fledged revolt. Reuters
The global financial crisis that sparked left-wing demonstrations in Europe is now doing so in cities across America in the form of "Occupy Wall Street" protests. As the protests gather strength, labor unions are joining in. AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka is planning rallies next week in support of the protests. Protesters have criticized the government for propping up hobbled financial giants, including Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., with a $700 billion taxpayer-funded bailout in 2008, while leaving Americans to struggle with unemployment, depressed wages, soaring foreclosure rates and slashed retirement savings. Bloomberg
Like the European protests, the "Occupy Wall Street" protests have been peaceful except for occasional brief clashes with police. However, the protests have apparently sparked threats against New York state lawmakers with e-mail messages saying, "time to kill the wealthy." As in the case of Europe, there is concern that some unexpected spark could ignite wider left-wing and anarchist violence (as happened in America in the 1930s). As we reported last month, union longshoremen in Washington state violently attacked guards protecting a non-union grain terminal, shortly after Teamsters president James Hoffa called for war and violence against political opponents. Politico
In what has been described as "the first meeting of its kind," senior US officials met with Muslim Brotherhood members in Cairo, Egypt. The meeting took place in the offices of Egypt's Freedom and Justice Party, the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptians commented on American policy in many areas, including intervention in Egypt's domestic affairs, human rights, the Arab-Israeli conflict and the US administration's support for Arab autocrats at the expense of their people. The Americans "emphasized the importance of having Egypt-US relations based on mutual respect and non-interference in domestic affairs, as well as mutual respect for human rights free of double-standards." Middle East Monitor
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the 47-member Council of Europe in Strasbourg, France, on Thursday, appealing to the European countries to support recognition of a Palestinian state, saying "there is no more appropriate time" than now. Abbas submitted his request to the United Nations Security Council two weeks ago, and believes that the Security Council will take up the matter in a month or so. AP
A bill that has wide bipartisan political support, but is opposed by most economists, was delayed in the Senate on Thursday after disagreements arose between Democrats and Republicans over what amendments would be allowed. The bill seeks to punish China for "currency manipulation" by making it easier to raise tariffs against Chinese goods. The bill is now set for a likely vote on Tuesday of next week. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 7-Oct-11 World View -- Left-wing and anarchist protests increase in Europe and America
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Oct-2011)
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Bad news for Dexia is good news for investors
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Turkey prepares to invade Iraq, targeting PKK Kurds
* Bad news for Dexia is good news for investors
* Dexia's problems make fools of European regulators
* Pakistan raises concerns about Afghanistan-India strategic deal
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Turkey has been bombing Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) camps in northern Iraq for several months, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been preparing the army to follow up with a large-scale ground invasion of Iraq. Erdogan has already discussed the possible military action with both US President Barack Obama and Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Fear of a civil war in Turkey is rising, but Erdogan insists he's still seeking a negotiated solution. It's worth pointing out that from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Turkey is deep into a generational Crisis era, and a civil war is a real possibility (as contrasted with Syria, in a generational Awakening era, where a civil war is impossible). Spiegel
The old "bad news is good news" formula is playing out again. In 2007, whenever there was bad economic news, the markets would cheer because the bad news meant that the Fed would lower interest rates a quarter point or so, adding to liquidity that would flow into the stock market.
The threatened collapse of Belgium's Dexia bank is a disaster of such major proportions that investors are positively ecstatic. Commentary on TV analysts on Wednesday was almost unanimous. The threatened collapse of Dexia bank will force the European Central Bank to pour out billions of euros of liquidity, in order to recapitalize the banks that are now facing financial disaster in case Greece defaults. And that money, they believe, will flow into the stock market, just as America's TARP money all flowed into the stock market in 2009. (BBC and CNBC)
In July, European regulators ran "stress tests" on European banks, and Dexia passed with flying colors. Out of 91 banks, Dexia came out as the 12'th safest, making it one of the safest banks in Europe. (Many commentators said in July that the stress tests were a joke, because they assumed that Greece's bondholders would not lose money.) In 2010, Europeans conducted an earlier set of "stress tests" on banks, and Ireland's banking system was rated one of the safest -- just four months before it collapsed. I have to make the point once more that the world has changed dramatically since the 1990s, when the Silent Generation was still around. Since they've disappeared, the culture in America, Europe, China, and elsewhere has become a culture of fraud and extortion. You cannot believe anything that any politician, financial official, or journalist says, because they see nothing but their own ideology and don't care who gets screwed. Financial Times (Access)
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Pakistan's press is expressing grave concerns about a strategic partnership agreement signed on Wednesday by Afghanistan's president Harmid Karzai and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in New Delhi. In his speech after the agreement was signed, Karzai said,
"This is to strengthen Afghanistan, this is to strengthen a brother of Pakistan. To train our police for us, to train our army for us, to train thousands of Afghan youth who are right now sitting in India, and if Pakistan and other neighbors of us want to offer the same what we have taken, we would be delighted to take it, so let us be emphatic here, that neither India nor Afghanistan intends this to be beyond the two countries. ...In all sincerity, desirous of results, we will continue to work with our brothers in Pakistan."
However, Pakistan editorialists saw the situation differently:
"The accord means some of the worst fears of at least some elements in Pakistan have now changed into reality. The nexus that has been developing for some years between Kabul and New Delhi has already caused a great deal of trepidation, particularly in military circles, where the thinking runs along a single track: control over Kabul and the events that take place there is vital to Pakistan’s strategic assets. The notion of an ‘enemy’ country gaining charge there is difficult to stomach, and in the lexicon of the military, this essentially means that Pakistan is flanked on either side by nations who are not allies. The idea that “my enemies’ friend is my enemy” runs strong. And of course the current state of relations between Pakistan and the US adds a further dimension of angst to the situation."
Historically, Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims in wars against Sunni Muslims, and this is the current trend in the region. In the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, it's expected that Pakistan will be allied with the Taliban (Pashtuns) in southern Afghanistan, and India will be allied with Iran and with the Hazaris and other Shia Muslims in northern Afghanistan. VOA and Express Tribune (Karachi)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 6-Oct-11 World View -- Turkey prepares to invade Iraq, targeting PKK Kurds
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Oct-2011)
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Italy government bonds downgraded by Moody's
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Euro / Greek financial crisis heads for dénouement
* Europeans consider 'Private Sector Involvement' as 'haircut' increase to 50%
* Greece rejects any new austerity measures
* Italy government bonds downgraded by Moody's
* U.S. outrage over Russia/China vetoes of U.N. Syria sanctions
* Palestinians in Israeli jails stage growing hunger strike
* Putin's plans to return to Russia's presidency raising questions
* Money flies out of Russia faster than predicted
* Amanda Knox ... errrrrrr ... something something something
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Analysts were shocked on Tuesday after Monday's announcement by the Eurogroup (euro finance ministers) that the October 13 decision on providing the next bailout installment to Greece would be postponed until November, following Greece's admission on Suday that they'd miss their 2011 and 2012 cost-cutting targets. Everyone now seems to be saying what has been obvious for 18 months -- that either Europe can continue bailing out Greece every few months for years, or Europe can allow Greece to default. The pressure now seems to be on a dual track -- providing the next debt installment to Greece, and using the time gained to provide for an "orderly default." Whether an "orderly default" is even possible is highly doubtful, but that seems to be the new strategy, as European leaders abandon the obvious fairy tales that Greece can overcome its debt problems. Spiegel
European officials have invented a new acronym, PSI, standing for "Private Sector Involvement," meaning that investors, mainly banks, will have to bear part of the burden of the Greek debt crisis, by losing some of the money that they invested in Greek bonds. But the possible collapse of Belgium's Dexia bank that we reported yesterday has made it clear that Europe's banks cannot afford a Greek default, since the banks, especially in France and Germany, are too deeply invested in Greek bonds. What makes this much worse is the fact that the "haircut" that investors will have to take is growing larger every day. When the July 21 bailout deal was struck, it was thought that the "haircut" would be only 21%. But now it's expected to be 50-60%, which means that just continuing to bail out Greece may be thought to be the cheapest option for Europe. Reuters
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Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Tuesday that there will be no more austerity measures announced in the next month, as the parliament is still considering whether to approve the measures already announced. "There will be no new measures," he said, noting that the implementation of measures announced already would be adequate "as long as the state mechanism functions and we see cooperation by citizens." Kathimerini
Adding to the general sense of gathering panic in Europe, Moody's Investors Service dowgraded Italy's government bond ratings three notches, with a negative outlook. Although Moody's says that the chance of default by Italy remains remote, "Nonetheless, Moody's believes that the structural shift in sentiment in the euro area funding market implies increased vulnerability of this country to loss of market access at affordable rates that is incompatible with a 'Aa' rating." AP
Susan Rice, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, expressed outrage on Tuesday after China and Russia vetoed proposed Security Council resolutions providing for "tough, targeted sanctions" against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad:
"The United States is outraged that this council has utterly failed to address an urgent moral challenge and a growing threat to regional peace and security.Today two members have vetoed a vastly watered down text that doesn't even mention sanctions.
Let me be clear: the United States believes it is past time that this council assumed its responsibilities and imposed tough targeted sanctions and an arms embargo on the Assad regime."
Russia and China are known to be furious that the West far exceeded its mandate in Libya after the Security Council approved, with abstentions by Russia and China, a humanitarian effort to protect civilians. AFP
Some 500 Palestinian prisoners in Iraeli jails have joined a hunger strike to protest worsening prison conditions. Thousands of Palestinians stage rallies in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank showing solidarity with prisoners. The strike was called after prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu toughened restrictions on Palestinian prisoners as part of an effort to force Hamas to free kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Schalit. Jerusalem Post
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's announcement that we recently reported to the effect that he would run for President in 2012, replacing Dmitry Medvedev, has raised constitutional questions. Russia's constitution prohibits anyone from becoming president for more than two consecutive terms, and that's the reason why Putin could not run for president in 2008. Putin's announcement appears to confirm that Medvedev was just a "placeholder" for Putin, so that Putin could stay in power for 16 or more years, violating the spirit, if not the letter, of the Russian constitution. Jamestown and Spiegel
Russia's central bank reported on Tuesday $18.7 billion in capital outflows in the third quarter, on top of $30.6 billion that had left Russia between January and June. These figures were far greater than had been predicted. Government officials have blamed the capital flight on a fragile business climate in which investors complain of red tape and the inability to defend their rights in court. AFP
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This is the most important international news story in the world today, more important than the European debt crisis, more important than Libya, more important than the Mideast, more important than anything. Since the Amanda Knox story is so important, I'm doing this item on Amanda Knox, so that all of my readers can be well informed about everything important that's going on in the world. Now you know. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 5-Oct-11 World View -- Euro / Greek financial crisis heads for dénouement
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Oct-2011)
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Administration lobbies Congress to restore Palestinian aid
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Euro finance ministers signal that Greece will get its money anyway
* Greece's Papandreou angrily rejects demands to reduce public salaries
* Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse
* Civilians flee Sirte, Libya, ahead of rebel onslaught
* Administration lobbies Congress to restore Palestinian aid
* Anti-China tariff bill advances in Congress
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After this weekend's shocking announcement (shocking to anyone with his head in the sand) that Greece will substantially miss the deficit targets for 2011 and 2012 that have been set as conditions for the next €8 billion installment of the second Greek bailout, a meeting of euro finance ministers on Monday signalled the intention to allow the bailout payment to go forward anyway. Greece has informed the committee that the funds will be required by the second week of November, so no decision was made on Monday, and a previously announced October 13 meeting has been postponed. However, Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said,
"We had no one advocating a default for Greece. Everything will be done to avoid that and it will be avoided. Nobody was advocating an exit of Greece from the euro area. I have to firmly deny all these rumors that Greece could decide to leave the euro area and I have to firmly deny any rumors of a Greek default."
When asked what Greece has to do, after failing to meet previous targets, EU economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said,
"There has been a slippage this year. ... What is essential is that Greece will have to meet or exceed its target in 2012 with regards to its fiscal deficit, and it must improve its track record in 2011."
All the signs point to another round of "kicking the can down the road." Reuters
Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou reacted angrily to the suggestion, offered by the "troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) inspectors that Greek law be changed to allow employers to to bypass union contracts and allow lower salaries. "Collective labor contracts apply. We are not, nor do we have any intention of becoming, India or Bangladesh," said Papandreou. Kathimerini
Belgium's Dexia SA bank may be broken up, the first major bank casualty of Greece's debt crisis. The bank lost €4.03 billion in the second quarter, the largest loss in its history, after it wrote down its holdings of Greece's debt. France and Belgium bailed out Dexia in 2008, and apparently only a new bailout will save Dexia now. After panic selling of Dexia shares on Monday, Belgium's finance minister said, "The French and Belgian governments are behind their banks, whether that is Dexia or another. To help banks and to help, for example French and Belgian savers, the first thing to do is to help Greece." Bloomberg and Guardian
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Fearing a coming bloodbath, tens of thousands of civilians are fleeing their homes in Sirte, the birthplace of Libya's former leader Muammar Gaddafi, as thousands of rebel troops encircle the town. Sirte is one of the last major strongholds of Gaddafi supporters, and the fighting has been fierce. Residents are desperate to flee the city, despite the fact that Gaddafi supporters are blockading exit roads and threatening to kill anyone who tries to leave. Der Spiegel
Fearing a collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the Obama administration is lobbying Congressional leaders to restore $200 million in aid that was blocked in retaliation for the bid to the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state. On Monday, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said, "We think it is money that is not only in the interest of the Palestinians, it is in U.S. interest and it is also in Israeli interest and we would like to see it go forward," Reuters
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was enacted by Congress in 1930, against the advice of almost all economists of the time. The effects were enormous. The bill erected large trade barriers for numerous products, virtually shutting down product exports to the United States. Both Germany and Japan were particularly affected. The Smoot-Hawley act was arguably the first hostile act of World War II. A bill with similar intent, and with strong bipartisan support, is now being considered by the Senate. It would let American businesses seek duties on Chinese imports, supposedly to make up for the weak yuan. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 4-Oct-11 World View -- Belgium's Dexia bank may be near collapse
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Oct-2011)
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Burma's generational Unraveling era brings big changes
The government of Burma (Myanmar) has made a surprise announcement that the construction of a huge hydroelectric dam being built in a partnership with China is being suspended, at least until 2015, according to the BBC
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The Myitsone dam project is definitely aligned with Chinese culture, rather than Burmese culture, or the culture of any other country. With 1.5 billion people, China faces a reality that people are a commodity and land is priceless. So China has more dams within its borders than any other country, according to the Guardian. Chinese dams have displaced an estimated 23 million people. Dam breaks in the country with the world's worst safety record have killed approximately 300,000 people. The enormous Three Gorges dam project alone displaced 1.3 million people.
The Burma dam project is clearly a Chinese projects, and would have created a reservoir of some 296 square miles, an area larger than Singapore, in addition to displacing thousands of people, mostly from the Kachin ethnic group, according to environmental group International Rivers.
Despite that, some 90% of the electricity would be exported to China, which adds insult to injury.
So it's not surprising that there's been widespread opposition to the dam project from the Kachin People’s Organization, conservationists, scholars, and political activists including Aung San Suu Kyi.
What IS surprising is that the Burmese government actually acceded to the demands of the opposition, risking a major confrontation with China. Burma's government is currently the target of international sanctions that were imposed on the former military government, and China has been one of the country's continuing allies.
The $3.6 billion Myitsone project was being developed jointly by the state Myanmar Ministry of Electric Power, the privately-owned Asia World Company of Burma and the China Power Investment Corporation.
China's Foreign Ministry issued the following cautious statement on Saturday, in reaction to the project suspension:
"The Chinese Government always supports Chinese enterprises cooperating with enterprises of other countries based on the principle of mutual respect, mutual benefit and equality, requires them to perform duties and fulfill obligations in strict accordance with laws and regulations of the host country and urges relevant government to protect the legal and legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. The Myitsone Dam is a jointly invested project between China and Myanmar that has gone through scientific verification and strict examination of both sides. Relevant matters arising from the implementation of the project should be handled appropriately through bilateral friendly consultation."
In fact, anti-Chinese sentiment has been growing in Burma, according to the BBC, and the the Myitsone dam project has become a lightning rod for that resentment. China exploited the void created by international sanctions, and moved rapidly to exploit Burma's rich natural resources, as well as develop the Myitsone dam.
In my 2007 article, "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter," I provided a generational history of Burma.
Burma's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody ethnic civil war that climaxed in 1958 after intervention by China. As always happens, this crisis war was followed by a Recovery Era in which austere rules and institutions were created with the sole objective of guaranteeing that no such war should ever be allowed to happen again.
Thirty years later, on 8/8/88, Burma had an Awakening Era clima, when hundreds of thousands of students in the "88 generation," joined by monks and civilians, marched against the military government. Soldiers opened fire on demonstrators with machine guns, resulting in thousands of casualties. In the aftermath, the military government cracked down brutally. They particularly arrested Aung San Suu Kyi, daughter of World War II hero Aung San, and kept her under arrest until recently.
When the military government brutally slaughtered thousands of monks and civilians peacefully protesting in 2007, it was widely believed that the 1988 slaughter would be repeated. In fact, a lot of it was repeated, but there was a difference. Burma in 2007 was in a generational Unraveling era, so named because the austere rules and institutions of the Recovery era all unravel.
The unraveling in Burma has been rapid. Aung San Suu Kyi is now free. The military government has been replaced by a civilian government. And Burma is on the verge of releasing some of the more than 2,000 political prisoners held in its jails, a move that is one of the main criteria for the lifting of sanctions against the country, according to Financial Times (Access). President Thein Sein has proposed a labor law allowing trade unions to take industrial action. And the authorities in Rangoon last week allowed an opposition demonstration to commemorate the uprisings of three years ago.
Thus, the suspension of the Myitsone dam project was not an isolated event; it was only the latest action in a series of actions, following the shock of the bloody overreaction to the 2007 demonstrations, that are returning Burma to a more democratic government. The postwar austerity is unraveling completely.
Possibly most significant in this unraveling period is that Burma is clearly trending away from China, signalling the likelihood that Burma will side with India and the west in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
In a bizarre twist of events, Burma has dumped its longstanding trading partner China in favor of Paris Hilton. Paris has been a vocal opponent of the Myitsone dam. "I have told President Thein Sein I will open lots of perfume, handbag and shoe factories as long as he stops this dam project and that I'll tell Obama to drop the sanctions to achieve these goals," said Paris. The Spoof
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 3-Oct-11 News -- Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Oct-2011)
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Terrorist groups in Pakistan are splintering into smaller groups
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Greece misses requirements for next bailout payment
* Greece's banks face nationalization
* Terrorist groups in Pakistan are splintering into smaller groups
* US aids Uzbekistan despite human rights record
* Defense Secretary Leon Panetta warns that Israel is too isolated
* Venezuela's Chavez promises China all the oil it needs
* China using Tibetan plateau water as weapon
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In an emergency cabinet meeting on Sunday, Greece's government approved €6.6 billion of austerity measures, in order to meet the conditions laid down by the "troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) as conditions to receive the next €8 billion payment in its second bailout. Greece needs the money by mid-October to avoid bankruptcy. The new austerity measures include creation of a "labor reserve" of 30,000 public employees who will not have to do any work, but will receive 60% of their salaries. This will get around a constitutional provision that guarantees civil servants jobs for life. However, the new austerity measures do not meet the conditions set down by the troika, which will meet again on October 13 to decide whether to give Greece the money anyway. Bloomberg
Once the current crisis is past, and Greece receives its next €8 billion bailout payment, it's expected that plans for an orderly default by Greece will be openly discussed. According to one plan, holders of short-term Greek bonds will take a 21% "haircut" (loss of principal) in return for receiving long-term bonds that are guaranteed by the EU. But a consensus is building among economists, politicians, and investors that at least a 50% haircut will be required. However, Greek banks are among the largest holders of Greek bonds, and they would have to be recapitalized immediately to avoid collapse, but in a depressed market that wouldn't be possible. So the only remaining choice would be for Greece's government to nationalize all the banks. Reuters
The deaths of al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden in 2011, and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) head Baitullah Mehsud in 2009, have resulted in a splintering of these large terrorist organizations in Pakistan. Now there are numerous smaller militant groups, such as Badar Mansoor, Al-Furqan, Al-Mukhtar, Al-Kharooj, Al-Azam Brigade, Asian Tigers, Jand-ul-hafsa, Lashkar-e-Baluchistan, Punjabi Mujahedin, Jandullah, Itihad-e-Mujahideen Khurasan, and Al-Qital. The small groups can more easily cover their finances and make plans, but their independence makes it harder for them to coordinate their actioins and maintain a united front. RFE/RL
With the United States and Nato allies looking for northern supply routes to Afghanistan, to bypass or replace the Pakistan supply route, the U.S. government is offering military assistance to the Islam Karimov led government of Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is strategically important, because it offers an overland route to Afghanistan, and the transportation costs will be significantly less compared to the alternative route through Kyrgyzstan. This despite calls from numerous human rights organizations for the U.S. to put human rights before military concerns. However, the protest movement against Karimov's regime is gaining strength. RFE/RL
Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, who is arriving in Israel on Monday, said he would reaffirm U.S. security commitments to Israel, and will try to help it improves its increasingly poor relationships with neighboring countries Egypt and Turkey. "It's pretty clear, at this dramatic time in the Middle East when there have been so many changes, that it is not a good situation for Israel to become increasingly isolated. And that is what has happened," said Panetta. Reuters
With the largest known oil reserves in the world, Venezuela is developing a closer relationship with China, and President Hugo Chávez is promising to provide China with all the oil it needs. Council on Hemispheric Affairs,
All the 10 major river systems of Asia including the Indus, Sutlej, Brahmaputra, Irrawady, Salween and Mekong originate in the Tibetan plateau. Of the world’s 6.92 billion people, for nearly 2 billion (29 per cent) living in South Asia from Afghanistan to the Ganga-Meghna-Brahmaputra basin and in Southeast Asia the rivers flowing from Tibet constitute the lifeline. However, China is building dams on all of these rivers, effectively using water as a weapon, and there are already reports that the quantity of water in many of the rivers flowing from Tibet to South Asia and South East Asia is on the decline. Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 3-Oct-11 News -- Burma (Myanmar) suspends dam project in major break with China
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Oct-2011)
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World stocks post the worst quarter in years
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Nato captures Haji Mali Khan, senior Haqqani network commander in Afghanistan
* Afghan leader Karzai gives up talking to the Taliban
* Al-Awlaki killing solidifies Obama strategy on targeting terrorists
* U.S. warns of revenge attacks for killing of al-Awlaki
* World stocks post the worst quarter in years
* Iran criticizes Palestinians' U.N. bid for statehood
* Large anti-Roma Gypsy rally in Bulgaria ends peacefully
* Mexico City lawmakers consider allowing temporary marriages
 |
Haji Mali Khan, a senior commander of the terrorist Haqqani network in Afghanistan, was captured on Saturday in an operation conducted by Nato and Afghan forces. Khan was heavily armed, but he did not resist. Khan is blamed for masterminding several recent Afghan terrorist attacks, including a 20-hour attack last month on the Isaf headquarters and the US embassy in Kabul in which some 25 people died. The Haqqani network is thought to have access to an almost limitless supply of young men in the tribal areas of Pakistan willing to carry out suicide attacks. Thus, the capture of Khan will not have a major impact on the Afghanistan war. BBC
In the wake of U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen's recent testimony that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was directly supporting the Taliban-linked Haqqani terrorist network, President Hamid Karzai has announced that he will give up trying to make peace with Taliban insurgents, saying that Pakistan holds the only key to making peace with insurgents and must do more to support a political resolution to the war. A peace agreement between the Afghans and the Taliban is an essential part of Nato's plan to withdraw forces from Afghanistan by 2014, so this announcement by Karzai, if implemented, will have far reaching consequences. AP
The Obama administration entered uncharted legal territory on Friday when it authorized the killing of an American citizen Anwar al-Awlaki on foreign soil without due process. The action was taken following a review of the legal issues by the Justice Department, resulting in a secret memorandum authorizing the lethal targeting of al-Awlaki. With the memorandum in hand, the success of the al-Awlaki operation has allowed the administration fo have finalized a legal framework for targeting suspected terrorists hiding abroad, especially in Pakistan and Yemen. Beyond the drone attack in the al-Awlaki killing, the administration is considering the use of other aircraft, like jetfighters and bombers, for attacking the Haqqani network although it has assured Pakistan that it would not use ground troops. If true, this represents a significant escalation of the administration's war on terror. Washington Post and Dawn (Pakistan)
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The U.S. State Dept., FBI and Dept. of Homeland Security have issued terror alerts domestically and worldwide, warning Americans of the possibility of revenge attacks on Americans in retaliation for Friday's killing of terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki. The latest alert said the deaths "could provide motivation for homeland attacks" by "homegrown violent extremists," if al-Awlaki's supporters seek to portray him as a martyr in a supposed U.S. war against Islam. The State Department alert, which is in effect until November 30, urges U.S. citizens abroad to register with the government to make it easier to contact them in case of an emergency. CNN
Global stocks closed their worst quarter in nearly three years on Friday, over concerns about the world economy and the lack of a credible solution to Europe's debt crisis. In additional, world copper prices have been plummeting, China's manufacturing sector contracted for a third straight month in September while German retail sales slid at their sharpest pace in more than four years. These are all signs that the world economy is coming to a standstill, just as it did in the last quarter of 2008. (See, for example, "World wide transportation and trade sink farther into deep freeze" from December, 2008.) From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a massive generational panic and crash is coming, for the first time since 1929. It's impossible to predict exactly when this full-scale panic and financial crash will occur, but it's coming with mathematical certainty. Reuters
Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has criticized the Palestinian application to the United Nations to be recognized as a member nation on the grounds that it is a "two-state solution," and therefore implicity recognizes the state of Israel, whereas "all land belongs to the Palestinians." AP
Some 3,000 people participated in the largest ever anti-Roma Gypsy rally in Sofia, the capital of Bulgaria, on Saturday. The rally lasted two hours, with participants chanting anti-government and anti-Roma slogans. Hundreds of people, armed with knives, baseball bats and sticks were detained. Members of the Roma community in Bulgaria said on Friday they took the forthcoming event seriously and were prepared to defend themselves, but the rally ended peacefully. Ria Novosti
Mexico City lawmakers want to help newlyweds avoid the hassle of divorce by giving them an easy exit strategy: temporary marriage licenses. The minimum marriage contract would be for two years and could be renewed if the couple stays happy. The contracts would include provisions on how children and property would be handled if the couple splits. Around half of Mexico City marriages end in divorce, usually in the first two years. A Catholic Church spokesman criticized the idea. "This reform is absurd. It contradicts the nature of marriage. It's another one of these electoral theatrics the assembly tends to do that are irresponsible and immoral." Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 2-Oct-11 World View -- Al-Awlaki killing solidifies Obama strategy on targeting terrorists
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Oct-2011)
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American al-Qaeda terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki killed by drone strike
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* American al-Qaeda terrorist Anwar al-Awlaki killed by drone strike
* Demonstrations in Syria grow increasingly violent
* U.S. Congress blocks $200 million in aid to Palestinians
* China deeply suspicious about America's strategic intentions
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Anwar al-Awlaki, an American citizen, and a leader of al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), was killed in Yemen on Friday by a missile fired by an American drone. Al-Awlaki is believed to have inspired the Fort Hood killer and the underwear bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, and he's linked to 19 terror attacks. He's been a highly articulate spokesman for AQAP, since he speaks colloquial English well, as his native language. CBS News
His principle propaganda organ was the English language jihadist magazine Insipire!. The cover of the most recent issue, a celebration of 9/11, shows an image of the World Trade Center made out of dollar signs. This issue has been in the news because AQAP accuses Hizbollah and Iran of lying in their claim that Israel was behind the 9/11 attacks. "The purpose of this lie is clear – (to suggest) that there are no heroes among the Sunnis who can hurt America as no else did in history. Iranian media snapped up this lie and repeated it." This issue also promised a "coming soon" article by al-Awlaki titled "Targeting the Populations of Countries That Are At War with the Muslims." Thanks to Friday's drone strike, someone else will have to write that article. Memri
At least 11 protesters died after thousands took to the streets after Friday prayers again. However, this time there was heavy fighting between the Syrian army and opposition activists in central Homs province. Reports from Rastan, a town of 40,000, indicate that army defectors have been fighting government forces to protect the protesters. The demonstrations in Syria, which began peacefully six months ago, are becoming increasingly violent as protesters grow frustrated at the lack of any tangible reform. BBC
In an unpublicized decision made in August, the U.S. Congress has blocked nearly $200 million in aid for the Palestinians, threatening projects such as food aid and health care. The blocking, which is opposed by the Obama administration, is apparently in retaliation for the Palestinians' United Nations bid for statehood. The funds were to have been disbursed in the U.S. fiscal year that ended on Friday. A Palestinian spokesman said, "This is not constructive at all. Such moves are unjustified. These are mainly humanitarian and development projects-it is another kind of collective punishment which is going to harm the needs of the public without making any positive contribution." He added that, "it is ironic to be punished for going to the United Nations". Independent
Despite repeated statements by U.S. officials that America welcomes China's rise as a world power, many Chinese are deeply suspicious about American intentions, and are concerned that the U.S. ultimately will attempt to delay or prevent China’s emergence as a great power because it sees a stronger China as a threat to its continued preeminence. Some even fear Washington really intends to “contain” China. Chinese suspicions about U.S. strategic intentions are longstanding. Some Chinese analysts are particularly focused on what they see as a deteriorating maritime security environment, and they blame the U.S. as the main cause of China’s maritime security problems. They contend that Washington seeks to exploit North Korean attacks on South Korea and Beijing’s maritime disputes with its neighbors, especially Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines. They say that recent events in the Yellow Sea, East China Sea and South China Sea reflect Washington’s determination to prevent China from challenging the U.S. position in the region. Generational Dynamics predicts that China and the U.S. will be the principal belligerents in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 1-Oct-11 World View -- U.S. Congress blocks $200 million in aid to Palestinians
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(1-Oct-2011)
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