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Call by Salafist cleric in Tunisia to kill Jews raises firestorm
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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From Kalamazoo to Timbuktu is a long way down the track, but not for Tuareg rebels who have surrounded Timbuktu and are close to capturing it, and taking control of the entire Azawad region (northern Mali). The Tuareg's Mouvement National de Libération de l'Azawad (MNLA) has been gaining strength because of the return of thousands of seasoned fighters from the Libyan war, where they had served as the core of Muammar Gaddafi's supporters.
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Amadou Haya Sanogo, who led a group of Mali army deserters to a coup last week, is begging the neighboring countries to help stop the Tuareg rebellion. But the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which includes Ivory Coast, Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Liberia, is refusing to help until Sanogo steps down, and democratically elected President Amadou Toumani Touré is returned to power. Even worse, Ecowas is threatening to close all borders with the landlocked Mali, which will make it impossible to import food or gasoline. Al-Jazeera
One man died and dozens more were injured Friday as Israeli forces and Palestinian demonstrators clashed in Gaza and the West Bank during protests to mark Land Day. Palestinians hold Land Day rallies every year to commemorate the deaths of six demonstrators in 1976. The rallies have become an annual expression of what Palestinians say are discriminatory Israeli policies. CNN
Roger Bismuth, President of Tunisia's Jewish Community, announced that he is taking legal action against a Salafist preacher who led a demonstration shouting, "young people rise up, let's wage a war against the Jews," to a crowd chanting "God is great." Bismuth was supported by the leader of Tunisia's Islamist political party Ennahda, who said, "Tunisia defends the rights of all citizens. We will fight for the rights of all our minorities, including the Jewish minority." The Ministry of Religious Affairs has also condemned "all calls to fight Jews," and deemed the incident on Avenue Habib Bouguiba to be an "isolated act." Tunisia Live
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 31-Mar-12 World View -- Timbuktu surrounded by rebels with Mali's junta government in crisis
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-Mar-2012)
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Azerbaijan grants Israel access to air bases on Iran's border
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The crisis in Syria is creating powerful sectarian splits among members of the Arab League. The split is between countries Iraq and Syria that are close to Iran (and Lebanon has to be partially included because of Hizbollah) on the one hand, and the Sunni-led Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries on the other hand. In a snub to Iraq, only 10 heads of state from the Arab League's 22 members attended Thursday's Arab League meeting, with the rest sending lower-level officials. Especially notable were the absences of the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and most other Gulf countries, as well Morocco and Jordan — all of them headed by Sunni monarchs who deeply distrust the close ties between Iraq's Shia-dominated government and their top regional rival, Iran. AP
This was the first time that Iraq has hosted an Arab League meeting since 1990. Iraq has been shunned since then, first because of Iraq's (Saddam Hussein's) invasion of Arab neighbor Kuwait in 1991, leading to America's Iraq war, and then because of Iraq's close relations with Iran.
In interviews on Al-Jazeera on Thursday, Iraq accused the GCC nations, particularly Saudi Arabia, of forming an "anti-Iran alliance." GCC officials responded that the split between the GCC and Iran goes far beyond simply Sunni/Shia differences. They pointed to aggressive Iranian interfering in Arab affairs -- Iran's support for the anti-government protests in Yemen and Bahrain, Iranian spies in Kuwait and threats to close the Straits of Hormuz. They also pointed out that Iran is interfering heavily in Iraq itself, quoting statistics that 20% of all Iranian visitors to Iraq belong to Iran's Revolution Guard.
When asked about Arab policy towards Israel, the response was, "There is no doubt that Israel is the major enemy. But when you have weak governments in all of the Mideast, then how can you face your enemy." He pointed to the chaotic situations throughout the Mideast -- in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Yemen and Syria, and said, "The Middle East is waiting for a new baby -- a new regime -- that will unite the Arab countries, but that has not come yet. Al-Jazeera
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According a report leaked by the Obama administration, Azerbaijan is granting access to its air bases near the border with Iran. Relations between Azerbaijan and Iran are already extremely tense, and its increasingly close relationship with Israel is increasing the tension. In February, Israel signed a $1.6 billion arms deal with Azerbaijan, committing to sell drones and anti-aircraft missile defense systems to Baku. According to a retired U.S. diplomat, the deal left Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan "sputtering in rage," since Israel had previously canceled a contract to develop drones with the Turkish military. Haaretz
The news that Azerbaijan is making air bases available to Israel is prompting rumors that Israel is planning to use the bases to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. Azerbaijan's president Ilham Aliyev was forced to issue a statement saying, "Azerbaijan's territory will never be used to launch an attack against its neighbor, Iran." Jerusalem Post and Israel National News
Despite two bailouts totaling $325 billion, a $134 billion write-down in debt, crushing pay cuts, tax hikes, slashed pensions, the coming firing of 150,000 workers, reducing the minimum wage 22-32 percent, phasing out collective bargaining rights for workers and the onset of deep pay cuts in the private sector as well, Greece may still have to restructure its debt again with the help of European governments, according to an analyst at Standard & Poor's ratings on Thursday. On the same day, it became apparent that investors are increasingly betting that the debt crisis will spread to Spain and Italy, as demand for those two countries' bonds dropped precipitously, pushing ten-year bond yields (interest rates) up to around 5.5%, an unsustainable level. By comparison, Germany's 10-year bond yields fell to 1.8%. Spain was particularly hard hit because of a nationwide strike protesting austerity measures. Unions said that 77% of Spanish workers took part in the strike. Bloomberg and Greek Reporter
Because of North Korea's plans to launch a long-range missile test, just a few weeks after signing an agreement not to conduct either nuclear tests nor missile tests, the U.S. says that it is suspending its food aid to North Korea. Reuters
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On March 19, rumors spread rapidly across the internet that a coup was in progress in Beijing. Government censors quickly deleted the messages, but that reaction only fueled the rumors further. The pictures of tanks and such that fueled the rumors have since been shown to be old, there is still a bitter power struggle going on in China. On the one hand, you have the current leaders, Hu Jintao and Wen Jiaboa, survivors of Mao's bloody Communist Revolution and, like America's Silent Generation, these leaders are mediators and are seek political reform and increased democracy in China. On the other hand, you have a group of younger individuals, led by now-deposed 62-year-old Bo Xilai the popular party chairman in Chongqing, a city of 32 million on the Yangtze River in central China. Bo has been leading a popular new Maoist revolution. He encouraged the citizens of Chongqing to revive the custom of singing revolutionary songs in the city's parks. He had thousands of corrupt officials and underworld figures arrested. And he helped the poor by forgiving their school fees and providing them with inexpensive apartments. His popularity has alarmed the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leadership, who have demoted Bo to a lower position. However, Bo has a powerful constituency of supporters, so we may hear a lot more from Bo, especially in 2012, the year for the scheduled selection of the top CCP leadership. Spiegel
I've been writing for several years that China is overdue for a new national civil war. (See "China approaches Civil War" from 2005.) China's history is full of massive civil war rebellions, such as the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805) and the Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), killing millions or tens of millions of people. These occur at regular intervals, with each new one occurring at about the time that the survivors of the preceding one die off. The last of these rebellions was Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49), and now it's time for the next one. I had always suggested that a new Chinese rebellion might be spontaneous, an outgrowth of the tens or hundreds of thousands of "mass incidents" that occur throughout China every year. But Bo Xilai is the first figure to come forth who might be popular enough to be the "new Mao," leading a new rebellion.
Mohammed Merah, the gunman blamed for seven killings in the south of France this month, was buried Thursday evening near the southwestern city of Toulouse. French officials and Merah's family had hoped to return the body to Algeria, for fear that his grave site would become a shrine, but Algeria refused to allow the body into the country. French President Nicolas Sarkozy said that he would prefer that Merah be buried without further debate. "He was French, let him be buried and let's not create any controversy about it," he said. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 30-Mar-12 World View -- A dangerous power struggle may be growing in China's leadership
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Mar-2012)
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Israel cancels army's Passover vacations, raising concerns of military plans
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Israel says that its new 15-foot high fence along the 150 mile border between Israel and Egypt's Sinai desert will be 94% completed by October, with the remaining 6% to be completed by next March. Under the regime of Hosni Mubarak, the Sinai was governed by Egypt's security forces. But since his ouster, the Sinai has become lawless. According to Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the fence does three things: it bars entrance of illegal workers, stops smugglers, and is a barrier to terrorists. According to Netanyahu, the fence answered one of Israel’s four main challenges, which he identified as the nuclear threat, the missile threat, the cyber threat and the border threat. When this fence is completed, then Israel plans to build an additional fence along the Golan Heights border with Syria. Jerusalem Post
Israel has unexpectedly ordered that all its Israeli Defense Force (IDF) units are to be on full alert during the April 7-13 Passover holiday, and that all holiday vacations are to be canceled, so that the units can "operate in full capacity over the upcoming holiday." The announcement has triggered concerns that Israel is planning some military maneuvers during the holiday, possibly even an attack on Iran. However, IDF officials said that the move has nothing to do with the potential for any military maneuvers. Ynet and Now Lebanon
With $67 billion of student loans in default, the U.S. Department of education is turning to an army of private debt-collection companies to put the squeeze on borrowers. Working on commissions that totaled about $1 billion last year, these government contractors face growing complaints that they are violating federal laws with abusive collection practices, more abusive than the IRS. Bloomberg
As expected, the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has continued its massive military assault against residential neighborhoods, this time in a town in the province of Hama, despite the fact that he signed a farcical Kofi Annan peace plan just yesterday. We have been here before. Last November, President Assad agreed to a deal proposed by the Arab League which had many of the same elements as the Annan plan - withdrawal of government forces from residential areas, freeing of political prisoners and good-faith negotiations with the opposition. None of those promises was kept. BBC
When Iraq was led by Sunni government of Saddam Hussein, Iraq was considered by many to be a full-fledged member of the Arab community of nations. But now Iraq has a weak Shia leader, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and has close ties with Iran. Thus the meeting of Arab League in Baghdad on Friday is being viewed with disdain by Arab leaders, many of whom are snubbing Iraq by staying away from the meeting, sending low-level diplomats instead. The major agenda item will be Syria. Leading Sunni countries, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar, would like to arm the Syrian opposition, in the hope of overthrowing al-Assad and breaking his alliance with Iran. However, Iraq favors only further mediation. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 29-Mar-12 World View -- Arab League meeting in Iraq split by acrimonious divisions
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Mar-2012)
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Home prices fall in January to lowest level since 2003
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which include Ivory Coast, Benin, Burkina Faso, Niger and Liberia, has threatened to send a "peacekeeping force" to intervene militarily in Mali, if the ruling junta does not step down and restore democracy. This follows a coup last week that overthrew President Amadou Toumani Touré, who is currently in hiding. (See "25-Mar-12 World View -- Chaotic rebellion in Mali provides opportunity for an al-Qaeda linked Islamist state" from last week.) Besides the threat of military intervention, Mali's neighbors could suffocate the nation financially. Many of the 15 nations represented on the regional bloc share the same currency, and they could together decide to cut off Mali's supply of cash. Also if nearby Ivory Coast were to shut its border, landlocked Mali, a nation twice the size of Texas spanning over an expanse of scrubland, verdant hills and desert dunes, would run out of gasoline, which is trucked in from Ivorian refineries. AP
Former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan, international diplomat extraordinaire, announced on Tuesday that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad had agreed to the six-point "peace plan" adopted by the U.N. Security Council last week. (See "22-Mar-12 World View -- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria" from last week.) And why not? Al-Assad could agree to the peace plan and still treat innocent Arab citizens of Syria as if they were cockroaches for him to exterminate. By agreeing to the farcical plan he bought time. You would think that Annan would be embarrassed by all this, but like most politicians, he's shameless. And besides, sooner or later there will be a lull in the hostilities, and then Annan can claim that he was the person who brought about peace. CNN
During last year's war in Libya, there was always the fear that once Muammar Gaddafi was finally removed, there would be nothing preventing a more widespread tribal war. Nothing of that severity has happened so far, but large parts of Libya are without government control, and there have been plenty of small-scale clashes and skirmishes. The latest occurred about 400 miles south of Tripoli in the southern city of Sabha. Two tribes (Tabu and Abu Seif) fought one another in the streets, using mortars, automatic rifles, snipers on rooftops, and medium-range rocks. AP
Despite a daily stream of "experts" and "analysts" on CNBC and Bloomberg TV proclaiming every month for the last four years that the real estate market had "bottomed out," real estate prices continued to fall in January according to the Case-Shiller report. The prices fell to the lowest level since 2003. According to estimates I've done in the past, using the Law of Mean Reversion, housing prices are expected to continue falling for several more years, bottoming out only when they've reached 1990 levels. But don't tell that to one financial analyst I heard today, who said, "Housing prices continue to fall, but the pace of those declines may be slowing." Or maybe not. Market Watch
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 28-Mar-12 World View -- Syria's Assad accepts Kofi Annan's farcical six-point 'peace plan'
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Mar-2012)
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West German mayors balk at further aid to East Germany
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
All major crises appear to be in a lull right now, including the euro crisis, the Mideast crisis, and the South China Sea crisis. The world is relatively calm, as if it were in the eye of a hurricane. However, its worth noting that in the last three days we've covered major stories on Africa -- "European Union escalates its war against Somalia pirates" on Monday and "Chaotic rebellion in Mali provides opportunity for an al-Qaeda linked Islamist state" on Sunday. Today's focus is on Sudan and South Sudan, a region that's particularly important to Israel and China, as well as the rest of the world. I often like to point out the size of Africa, since some people think that Africa is about the size of Texas. But Africa is just a little bit bigger than Texas. In fact, Africa is bigger than the ENTIRE United States INCLUDING Alaska PLUS all of China PLUS all of Europe -- and there's still enough room left over to throw in New Zealand. So with the world in the eye of the hurricane, it's worth keeping eye on a large region where it's not so calm.
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South Sudan became an independent nation in July of last year, with much jubilation in South Sudan and much anger in Sudan, the country from which South Sudan was seceding. The two countries are in a generational Recovery era following a bloody civil war that ended with a peace agreement in 2005. There's no chance of a renewal of the civil war during a Recovery era, but there are plenty of clashes along the disputed border between the two countries, particularly over the revenue from oil production. Most of the oil is in South Sudan, but the pipelines are controlled by the north, and so there are continuing disputes over money. South Sudan shut down oil production in late January after accusing its northern neighbor of stealing $815 million of its oil. Sudan said it confiscated the crude to make up for unpaid fees to use the pipeline and processing facilities in its territory. The border disputes and clashes make it unlikely that agreements will be reached any time soon. CNN and U.S. Energy Information Administration
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China, which is sucking up every drop of oil in the world that it can get, moved quickly last year to establish relations with the new nation of South Sudan to protect its oil interests. China has huge investments in both countries. The oil from both Sudans represents at least 5% of China’s global crude imports. China has always had rock solid relations with Sudan, but South Sudan is threatening to cut off China and turn to Western oil companies unless China is willing to help in the dispute with the north. Tensions reached a head last month, when Sudan allegedly bombed an oil field at El Nar in South Sudan, nine miles from the jagged, contested border between the two countries, sending Chinese and other foreign workers maintaining the oil wells scrambling for their lives. According to one observer, Sudan is sending a message. "It’s a message to all foreigners: 'You deal with us, not the other side.'" Washington Post
After a recent visit of the South Sudanese president Salva Kiir to Israel, and a meeting with Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, South Sudan said it will establish an embassy in Jerusalem, rather than Tel Aviv, thus supporting Israel's claims to Jerusalem. In return, Israel will invest in South Sudan. A particularly touchy issue is the fate of some 2,000-3,000 Sudanese refugees in Israel, formerly living in the southern part of Sudan when full-scale war was going on. Since South Sudan is now an independent state, Israel has announced that they are no longer considered refugees, and they will be deported back to South Sudan. However, Israel has softened its position, and will allow some of the former refugees to remain in Israel. In addition, Israel will provide training for those being deported back. South Sudan’s relations with Israel are frequently viewed with intense suspicion in the Egyptian press, cafés and bars -- though because of water, not oil. Egypt views the Nile’s water sources, one of which flows through South Sudan, called the White Nile, as a matter of national security, and they fear that in case of a conflict, the Israelis and South Sudanese will (somehow) cut off the water flow to Egypt. Bikya Masr (Cairo)
When East Germany was reunited with West Germany in 1991, it was an economy basked case after four decades of Communist rule. The Germans adopted a "Solidarity Pact," which obliged Western municipalities to provide funds for aid and infrastructure to East German cities. Now, 20 years later, the east and west have reversed situations. The cities of the former East Germany are doing well, with task of building up the eastern economy and infrastructure largely completed, with modern motorways, brand new shopping malls and painstakingly refurbished town centers. By contrast, many western towns are falling apart from neglect, with closed swimming pools, potholed streets and run-down buildings. Now the western mayors are finally balking at providing any more aid to eastern cities, setting the stage for a bitter political battle in the upcoming elections. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 27-Mar-12 World View -- Sudan / South Sudan border clashes affect Israel's and China's interests
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Mar-2012)
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Turkey's Erdogan agrees with Obama to provide aid to Syria's opposition
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Nobody really wants to do anything to interfere with the continued bloody slaughter by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, for fear that an outside intervention would spiral into a larger war. Everyone has been hopin' and prayin' that the slaughter would just stop on its own. But the fact that it isn't stopping is providing increasing embarrassment to Turkey, Russia, the European Union, America, and other countries. Turkey has particular issues:
On Sunday, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with US President Barack Obama at an international nuclear proliferation conference in Seoul, South Korea, and "discussed" medical and communications support and other “non-lethal aid” to Syrian rebels.
Turkey has frequently "discussed" another option, using the military to create a buffer zone on Syrian soil where people could flee from the army, but that has always been shelved. On Sunday, Erdogan said it was still on the agenda, but "We are looking for a final solution that includes Russia, China and Iran," the three major international backers of the Assad regime. Iran lends its support to the Iraqi Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, in his fight against the Sunni Arab bloc, and is thought, along with Russia, to be a major arms supplier to the Bashar regime. Zaman (Istanbul)
Russia has become alarmed because their support of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria has lost them a great deal of influence in the Arab world. The nightmare scenario for Russia is that the al-Assad regime gets kicked out, and a new government is hostile to Russia. Russia has its only remaining naval base in the Mediterranean at Syria's port of Tartus, has big arms sales to Syria, and has other big investments in Syria, so has a lot to lose. Russia is supporting a farcical 'peace plan' adopted by the U.N. Security Council and led by former U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan. At a Sunday meeting in Moscow with Annan, President Dmitry Medvedev said that Annan's plan "is the last chance for Syria to avoid a bloody civil war." Russia Today
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this just continues the silliness. Some would say that Syria is already in a "bloody civil war," with thousands of people massacred by the al-Assad regime. But Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and so a crisis civil war is impossible, which means that the current "bloody civil war" is pretty much as bad as it's going to get. It's possible that Assad will be forced from office, but right now it looks much more likely that Assad will crush his opposition. Historically, what always happens in those situations is that the war ends for the time being, and is followed by alternating periods of conflict and peace, with each period of conflict worse than the previous one, and with each period of peace punctuated by terrorist attacks.
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When Russia defeated Georgia in the 2008 war, Russia ended up in control of two Georgian territories, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Since then, Russia has stationed military forces in both territories and supplied substantial economic aid, even though internationally they're still both considered to be part of Georgia. It was clear during the war, as I reported at the time, that Georgians and Russians didn't particularly hate each other, although they were at war, but that the South Ossetians and the Georgians hated each other enormously, and keeping the conflict between the South Ossetians and Georgians from spiraling into a major regional war was undoubtedly one of the principal motivations for Russia's intervention. But now Russia is stuck with governing both territories, and the local populations are becoming increasing hostile to their Russian occupiers. This comes at at time when Russia's largely Muslim North Caucasus provinces (just above the Caucasus mountains) are increasingly subject to jihadist terrorist attacks. With the 2014 winter Olympics being held in Sochi, on the Black Sea just above Abkhazia, Russia is determined to bring the two territories under closer control, assuming that's possible. Accordingly, Moscow is throwing out any pretense of democracy, and has just appointed two "special representatives" to govern the two territories. Jamestown
The European Union is escalating its war against Somalia pirates, by authorizing its military forces to make air and sea attacks on targets with Somalia itself. "Operation Atalanta" previously could only target pirate ships on the high seas or territorial waters. The objective of the new mandate is to give the mission the powers to attack makeshift "logistical facilities" the pirates use on Somali beaches. Irish Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 26-Mar-12 World View -- European Union escalates its war against Somalia pirates
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Mar-2012)
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Feminist alert: 15 female PKK militants killed in clashes with Turkey's security forces
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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According to an analysis by Jamestown, there are numerous forces fighting in Mali, especially in the capital city Bamako:
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So, both the army and the rebel movement are split. Adding to the utter chaos, nearly 200,000 refugees have poured out of Mali in the last two months, seeking food, shelter and refuge in neighboring nations already suffering from drought and shortages. The chaos has created excellent conditions for al-Qaeda to entrench itself in Mali with minimal interference. Unless the internal collapse within the armed forces can quickly be reversed, both AQIM and the MNLA will score what may prove to be irreversible gains against a state rendered largely defenseless by its own military.
Al-Qaeda has been trying for years to repeat Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution in some country -- Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Somalia, and others. Mali is their latest opportunity. Jamestown
The vast majority of Egyptian Christians belong to the Coptic Orthodox Church, but there are a number of other Christian denominations with significant numbers of followers in Egypt. The largest is the Greek Orthodox Church of Alexandria, with some 350,000 members. In 451 AD, theological disagreements led the Egyptian Church to split from most other churches of the time. In the modern period, the Greek Orthodox Church in Egypt experienced a revival, with immigrants from Greece, Syria and Lebanon. The Coptic Catholic Church, with 170,000 members, recognizes the spiritual authority of the Pope in Rome. The Evangelical Church of Egypt is the largest of a number of Protestant Churches in Egypt, with about 250,000 members. It was originally founded in the 1800s by American Presbyterian missionaries. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
It's been wide suspected, and denied by authorities, that Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez is much more ill from cancer than he's admitting. Chávez has not identified the type of cancer nor the location in his pelvic region where the tumors have been removed. On Saturday, Chávez announced that he would return to Cuba on Sunday for radiation treatment. "Tonight, I'm leaving for Havana. I've decided, on the recommendation of my medical team and also my government political team, to begin now, as we're going to begin on Sunday, radiation therapy treatment." Chávez described it as a "complement to the surgery that I underwent" last month. AP
Turkish forces killed 15 female rebel fighters from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in clashes in southeast Turkey, in what is believed to be the largest one-day casualty toll for women since their guerrilla group began fighting for autonomy nearly 28 years ago. The PKK, which is fighting for autonomy in Turkey’s mainly Kurdish southeast, was born out of Marxist ideology and believes in equality between men and women. It is believed to have several female units. Female PKK militants carried out suicide bombings in 1990s, killing dozens of troops and civilians. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 25-Mar-12 World View -- Chaotic rebellion in Mali provides opportunity for an al-Qaeda linked Islamist state
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Mar-2012)
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Hong Kong holds 'anti-locust rally' protesting mainlanders from China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Remember two years ago when there was a big debt crisis in Greece? Oh, wait, that was two weeks ago, not two years ago. Since then, one pundit after another has been declaring the euro crisis over, especially since the European Central Bank printed over €1 trillion and poured it into the European banking system. Even so, Italy and Spain are following the same path as Greece. Investors are increasingly betting that Italy and Spain are going to default on their debts, and so yields (interest rates) on 10-year bonds from those two countries have been increasing, and are now well above the psychologically important 5% level. However, Spain's Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said that comparisons between Spain and Greece were "total nonsense." And we all know how much we can depend on these guys telling the truth, don't we. Globe and Mail and Telegraph
The song "Locust World" is popular in Hong Kong. It describes tourists from mainland China as "experts in stealing, cheating, deceiving and lying." According to a Hong Kong professor,
"Locusts come in groups. When they come as individuals, it doesn't matter. When they come in thousands and thousands, it looks like a swarm of locusts."
Hong Kong speaks Cantonese, a distinct dialect of the Chinese language from southern China, different from the Mandarin that most mainlanders speak. Hong Kong people people see a mainland threat to the values they hold dear, including a respect for the rule of law. NPR
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The European Union imposed further pointless sanctions on Syria on Monday, by placing president Bashar al-Assad's wife, Asma al-Assad, as well as Assad's mother, sister and sister-in-law on a blacklist that bans them from travelling to Europe, and freeze any assets they may have there. However, Asma al-Assad is a British citizen, so she can still travel there. While her husband has been exterminating the Syrian people as if they were cockroaches, Asma has been leading a life of high style, shopping for European furniture, jewelry and Christian Louboutin shoes. Asma grew up in London, and her parents and other family members still live there. Independent
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 24-Mar-12 World View -- Greece's debt crisis spreads to Italy and Spain
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Mar-2012)
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Renegade Mali soldiers stage coup to oppose returning fighters from Libya
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Under pressure from the European Union to control the flow of illegal immigrants coming through the porous border with Turkey and traveling to other parts of Europe to get work, Greece is building a network of 14 migrant camps across the country. On Thursday, residents of Kozani, in northern Greece, protested the planned creation of a migrant center in a disused military facility on the outskirts of the city. In response, a government minister stressed that the Kozani project would stimulate the local economy and create jobs. Kathimerini
Renegade soldiers in Mali declared Thursday that they have seized power and dissolved public institutions because of the government's handling of an insurgency. The insurgency has been fueled by returning Tuareg soldiers from Libya, now that the war in Libya has ended. Among the tribes of Libya, Muammar Gaddafi's main supporters were the Tuaregs, and the returning fighters have been leading an insurgency against the government of Mali, demanding an independent Tuareg state. The Tuareg are a tribe of over a million people stretching across five nations in northwest Africa, across Mali, Libya, Algeria, Niger and Burkina Faso. The renegade soldiers say they have suspended the constitution, closed the borders, and imposed a curfew. According to a spokesman for the soldiers,
"Considering the incapacity of the regime in effectively fighting against terrorism and restoring dignity to the Malian people, using its constitutional rights, the armed forces of Mali, along with other security forces, have decided to take on their responsibilities to put an end to this incompetent regime of President Amadou Toumani Toure."
According to the U.S. State Department:
"The United States condemns the military seizure of power in Mali. We echo the statements of the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States and other international partners denouncing these actions. We call for calm and the restoration of the civilian government under constitutional rule without delay, so that elections can proceed as scheduled. We stand with the legitimately elected government of President Amadou Toumani Touré. Mali is a leading democracy in West Africa and its institutions must be respected."
CNN and State Department
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This is something like the reverse of a situation that occurred in 2010, when Japan detained a Chinese boat captain whose boats were operating in waters claimed as sovereign territory by Japan. China used its muscle to force Japan to return the detained captain. (See "26-Sep-10 News -- China turns the screws on a humiliated Japan.") China is now preparing to use its muscle to humiliate Vietnam in a reverse situation, Chinese authorities are holding two Vietnamese boats and 21 crew who were detained while fishing near the disputed Paracel Islands on Wednesday. The Chinese are demanding $11,000 for their release. Vietnam has demanded the "immediate and unconditional release of the fishermen," and refusing to pay the $11,000 fee. The Vietnam government is considering a new "fish surveillance force" to monitor its fishing fleet, presumably to protect it from attacks by Chinese. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said,
"The actions of the Vietnamese fishing boats violated China's sovereignty and maritime rights. The actions taken by Chinese authorities were valid law enforcement actions. [Vietnam should] manage and educate [its fishermen and end] illegal poaching [in Chinese waters]"
Monday's murders in a Jewish school have highlighted a problem of increasing anti-Semitism in France. Many Jews in France complain of being harassed in public, and feel that the country is no longer a safe place to raise their children. As a result, more and more French Jews are buying homes in Israel. In the past, France has also been criticized for xenophobic attitudes towards Roma Gypsies and Muslims. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 23-Mar-12 World View -- Tensions rise between Vietnam and China over detained fisherman
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(23-Mar-2012)
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China arrests Vietnamese fishing near the Paracel Islands
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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As of this writing on Wednesday evening ET, the French police are about to assault the apartment of 23-year-old Mohammed Merah, a French citizen of Algerian descent, who claims to be a jihadist belong to al-Qaeda. Merah is the chief suspect in Monday's slaughter at a Jewish school in Toulouse, as well as the earlier murders of four soldiers, also of north African descent. "He wanted to avenge the Palestinian children and take revenge on the French army because of its foreign interventions," according to a French official. Merah indicated that his only regret was that he was not able to kill more people. CNN
Here's a list of the six points in the resolution adopted Wednesday by the United Nations Security Council. As you read it, keep in mind when it says "Syria commits," that in fact Syria hasn't committed to anything and will ignore this:
As I wrote a couple of days ago the daily two hour "humanitarian pause" is particularly hilarious. However, when the violence finally ends, this resolution will allow Kofi Annan and the United Nations to take credit for bringing peace to Syria. AP
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Chinese authorities are holding two Vietnamese boats and 21 crew who were detained while fishing near the disputed Paracel Islands on Wednesday. The Chinese are demanding $11,000 for their release. China claims complete sovereignty and control over the entire South China Sea region, including many areas that historically have been sovereign territory of neighboring countries. China's official Global Times says that the measure was taken as a "hard-line" approach as a warning to Vietnam. The article says that China's internet users have been demanding a "hard-line approach." According to a Chinese analyst, "Some countries have held a hard-line position in dealing with such disputes. In this case, making a compromise is no longer in the interests of China, so we see a toughening of the position by Beijing." According to another analyst, "Besides a foreign policy regarding such disputes, regular patrols will help break the other parties' attempts to occupy such areas, and avoid the international community's misconception about the status of such disputed waters." Tensions have been growing steadily between China and its neighbors. The United States opposes China's claim to the entire South China Sea. AFP and Global Times (Beijing)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 22-Mar-12 World View -- U.N. Security Council adopts farcical 'peace plan' for Syria
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(22-Mar-2012)
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In Egypt, public debate over police officers' requests for permission to grow beards
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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A long-awaited report by a commission appointed by Pakistan's parliament on reestabilishing good relations with the United States was released on Tuesday, recommending an end to U.S. drone strikes inside Pakistan, and demanding an apology for the drone strikes last November that killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. As a result of the November incident, Pakistan has closed its borders as a route for U.S. and Nato supply lines to Afghanistan, forcing Nato to find alternate supply routes. U.S. and Nato officials hope that they can Pakistan's borders will be opened again, but the issue of drone strikes is a sensitive one. The Pakistani people are opposed to drone strikes, but it's believed that Pakistan's intelligence service is secretly cooperating with the U.S. on drone strikes to kill militants in Pakistan's tribal areas. It's not likely that the U.S. will agree to end drone strikes, even if Pakistan demands it. AP
According to General John Allen, commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, India is not only a major economic donor to Afghanistan, but also has offered to support the development of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF), as U.S. and Nato forces withdraw. This announcement is certain to worry India's mortal enemy Pakistan, and will also worry analysts who fear that the Nato withdrawal will lead to a proxy war in Afghanistan between Pakistan and India. Times of India
In America, the politicians are arguing over whether churches should have to pay for contraception. In France, politicians are arguing over whether Muslims and Jews should follow halal and kosher rituals for meat. In Egypt, there's a similar cultural argument between politics and religion. The Egyptians are arguing over whether Sharia law allows police officers to grow beards. Some 300 police officers have requested permission to grow beards, claiming that they should be allowed to do so, since Sharia law prescribes it. However, Egyptian clerics are siding with the Interior Ministry in demanding that bears be shaved to maintain a respectable, clean-shaven appearance, saying that growing a beard is a custom, rather than a religiously recommend practice. According to one journalist,
"If we support [Muslim] officers growing a beard, the Church will support [Christian] officers wearing a cross. If only it ended there – but it is likely to drag us into [religious] fanaticism, and cause [officers] to be loyal to their religion rather than to the homeland. Military activity [is governed by] laws intended to benefit the homeland rather than any [specific] party."
The issue has split the Islamist political parties, with the more moderate Muslim Brotherhood siding with the Interior Ministry, and the religiously conservative Salafist al-Nour party siding with those wishing to grow a beard. Memri
China's housing prices have continued their slide ever since the housing bubble began to burst last October. Premier Wen Jiabao said last week that China’s home prices remain far from a reasonable level and he called on the government to continue efforts to regulate the housing sector, since otherwise there would be "chaos." China's economy as a whole appears to be slowing. The latest indication is the BHP Billiton, the Australia-based mining firm and the biggest mining firm in the world, who says that China's demand for iron ore has slowed. Politicians and economists in Europe and America are counting on China to keep the world out of a major new recession, so the news of a slowing Chinese economy is triggering concern. Reuters and Bloomberg
Residents of Toulouse, France, especially Jews, Muslims, and other minorities, are fearful that the man who coldly and methodically killed three Jewish children and a schoolteacher on Monday is going to strike again. Authorities believe he's also responsible for the recent fatal shootings of three soldiers of North African origin. "This is someone who has killed every four days, who is extremely organised, who has a high-calibre weapon," according to a police official. Friday is day four. Euro News/Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 21-Mar-12 World View -- India poised to replace Nato role in Afghanistan as Nato withdraws
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(21-Mar-2012)
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Russia agrees to bizarre daily two-hour ceasefire proposal in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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France was on the highest level of security of security alert on Monday night after a serial killer coldly shot dead three Jewish children and a teacher in the worst attack on a school the country has known. The murder weapon was the same as the one used in two other shootings – one last Thursday in which two soldiers died and a third is in a coma, and another four days earlier in which an off-duty soldier was shot dead. Three of the men were of north African descent and one was of West Indian origin. President Nicolas Sarkozy said that it appeared "obvious" the attack was anti-Semitic and that he was suspending his re-election campaign until at least Wednesday. He said "exceptional security measures" would be taken, while officials raised the terror alert in the area to "scarlet," the highest possible. Telegraph
Police at first had thought they were dealing with a lone extremist opposed to France’s military involvement in Afghanistan. But now their investigation is centered on a group of at least three renegade soldiers, from the same regiment as the murdered soldiers, who were kicked out of the French army in disgrace. They were discharged in 2008 for allegedly having neo-Nazi links – after pictures were found showing them posing in front of a flag emblazoned with a swastika in the photo shown above. Mirror
There have been numerous articles in recent weeks over increasing xenophobia directed towards Muslims in Europe, and concerns are now being raised for the safety of both Jews and Muslims. France’s presidential election campaign, which is heating up ahead of the April 22 vote, has been marred with xenophobic elements directed at both Jews and Muslims. Earlier this month, French Prime Minister François Fillon, a member of President Nicolas Sarkozy’s Union for Popular Movement (UMP) party, publicly criticized ritual slaughter in an apparent attempt to curry favor among France’s right wing and take away votes from Marine Le Pen, the presidential candidate of the anti-immigration National Front. The statement was directed Jewish kosher rituals and Muslim halal rituals. These statements, among others, have caused Jewish and Muslim leaders to express concern about the increase in xenophobia. Jerusalem Post and ENInews (Switzerland)
The New York Police Department stepped up security at synagogues and other sites on Monday after the deadly attack on a Jewish school in France, dispatching extra patrols to more than 50 locations throughout New York. NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly said though there were no specific threats against New York, which has the largest Jewish population outside Israel, the police department decided to take the measures as a precaution. "We have to be concerned about what happens overseas. We have a significant Jewish population in this city, and we have to take that into account. We know that we’re the top of the terrorist target list, so we’re concerned about the so-called copycat syndrome, where someone might see the events unfolding in Toulouse and take it upon themselves to act out." AP
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is annoyed at French President Nicolas Sarkozy for no longer wanting her help in his re-election campaign, At the start of 2012, Sarkozy asked Merkel, his close ally in the fight against the euro crisis, to make several joint appearances with him ahead of the French presidential election, to be held on April 22, with a possible run-off vote on May 6. She agreed, in an unusual intervention in a foreign country's domestic politics, because she wants Sarkozy to win. But at the end of February, when it became clear that his close ties with the German leader weren't helping his opinion poll ratings, Sarkozy changed his strategy. Last Wednesday, he made his change in campaign strategy public when he said in a radio interview: "The election campaign is a matter for the French people." Spiegel
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Apparently tired of being criticized for opposing anything that criticizes the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, Russia is now going along with a proposal by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) for a daily two-hour ceasefire in Syria to allow time for humanitarian aid to come in. The parties said that at the present moment, providing humanitarian aid for those in need is the absolute priority. As absurd and bizarre as this proposal is, it's what we can expect these days from politicians. Imagine the proposal being adopted. Each day at noon, the firing stops. The Red Cross rushes in and patches up the victims. Then, at 2 pm, the firing starts again, creating more victims. I doubt that such a ceasefire would survive even the first two hours. Russia Today
According to network security research Marcus Ranum, the big problem with a cyber war is that the target would not just be military electronic infrastructure. It would likely be a nation's critical infrastructure.
"If you look at international humanitarian law, I think it would be very difficult to launch a military cyber attack, not only that isn't an act of war but that is not inherently a war crime."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 20-Mar-12 World View -- Toulouse France massacre raises concerns of xenophobia towards Jews and Muslims
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(20-Mar-2012)
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A flood of Syria's refugees causes security problems for Turkey
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
France's far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon gains in presidential polls
Although it's expected that the main battles in France's coming presidential election will be fought between Socialist frontrunner François Hollande and rightwing president Nicolas Sarkozy, the ultra-far-left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon has been gaining in the polls, and recently surged above 10%. On Sunday, he led thousands of supporters in a festive campaign march to Bastille square in Paris where he gave a fiery speech calling for a "civic insurrection" and promising to "rebuild the republic." A one-time Trotskyist and former teacher, he leads a coalition of far left groups, including France's once-powerful Communist party. France24 and Guardian
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With Syria's army now assaulting residential neighborhoods near Turkey's border, refugees are flooding into Turkey. Turkey has said it has made contingency plans to accommodate as many as half a million refugees on its soil, in tent cities and refugee camps. However, Turkey is getting increasingly concerned about security issues, and has been discussing a "buffer zone" for a long time, without taking any action. This would be a region on Syria's soil, guarded by Turkey's army, where Syrians could flee and be safe. According to a Turkish analyst:
"This [buffer zone] will be a temporary fix for the security of Turkey. You need to take precautions for emerging threats posed by the influx of refugees. There may be Syrian intelligence operatives who are attempting to infiltrate Turkey or Kurdish terrorists may use civilian refugees as a cover to stage attacks on Turkish targets. Turkey should obtain the consent of international opinion before proceeding with an action against Syria."
Russia and China have vetoed every attempt to even criticize Syria's president Bashar al-Assad in the United Nations Security Council, and have indicated that they will continue to do so. However, the above statement doesn't mention the United Nations. What form of "consent of international opinion" will be acceptable remains to be seen. Zaman (Istanbul)
Syria's opposition fighters have been purchasing black market weapons in Tripoli, in northern Lebanon. But the supply of weapons is drying up, with potentially serious implications for the uprising. LA Times
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Tens of thousands of people queued at Abassiya Cathedral in central Cairo on Sunday, where the body of Pope Shenouda III, the head of Egypt’s Coptic Orthodox Church, was seated on a ceremonial throne wearing gold and red embroidered religious vestments, a golden mitre on his head and holding a gold-topped staff. Christians comprise about a tenth of Egypt's 80 million people. Shenouda had served as the 117th Pope of Alexandria since November 1971, leading the Orthodox community who make up most of Egypt's Christians. Shenouda was considered a great peacemaker, especially since the beginning of the Egyptian uprising, early last year. He frequently said, "Egypt is not a nation we live in, rather it is a nation that lives in us." Reuters
Pope Shenouda spent much of his 40 years at the head of Egypt's Coptic Christian church devoted to creating peace between Christians and Muslims in Egypt. A climax of his efforts came in 1985, when he returned from three years in exile, where he had been sent by Egypt's president Anwar Sadat. Shenouda had been bitterly opposed to Sadat's Camp David peace agreement with Israel, which he described as treachery because it betrayed Palestinians and Arabs by normalizing relations with Jews. After Sadat's assassination, the new president Hosni Mubarak reversed Sadat's decree and brought Shenouda back to Cairo, to the cheers of millions of Copts. Senouda might have triggered massive riots by Christians against Muslims by condemning Sadat's actions. Instead, he said, "All Copts open their hearts to their brothers, the Muslims. We feel they are our flesh and our blood in this beloved nation." Gulf News
It's been absolutely amazing this week to see the Generation-X analysts and politicians pull together to defuse the scandal ignited by Greg Smith's letter describing the toxic culture at Goldman Sachs. (See "15-Mar-12 News -- Resigning Goldman Sachs exec attacks toxic Generation-X culture")
As readers know, I've been writing a lot lately about how Gen-Xers refuse to blame other Gen-Xers for almost anything, including serious crimes.
This is despite the fact that we've had a catastrophe in the last few years, where Gen-X financial engineers purposely created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent synthetic securities, and then sold them to investors, especially loathsome Boomer investors, thus creating the current financial crisis, which is far from over. Thus, the Obama Justice Department is refusing to investigate and prosecute these crimes. What makes the Gen-X culture different from the Boomer culture is not that more Gen-Xers than Boomers are crooks, but that Gen-Xers almost unanimously refuse to blame other Gen-Xers for anything. From the point of view of generational theory, this is a pattern that's occurred throughout history and explains, for example, why ordinary Germans in the 1930s refused to blame the Nazis for the Holocaust. (See "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust" and "Proposed explanation for repeated Jewish persecution throughout history" from last month.)
Greg Smith's letter described how Goldman Sachs' executives extracted as much money as possible from their clients by advising them to buy securities that they knew were defective. This is at the heart of the financial crisis, since banksters sold tens of trillions of these securities to investors, knowing that they were fraudulent.
It's been clear this week that Gen-Xers ABSOLUTELY HATE this whole thing, because it blames the banksters. As a Boomer, I'm ABSOLUTELY FURIOUS that these crimes were committed, and I'm APPALLED that the Justice Dept. refuses to prosecute them. Some of the most bizarre conversations I've had recently have been with Gen-Xers trying to give excuses why the Obama Justice Department isn't prosecuting the banksters.
Here are some of the excuses I've been hearing all week on CNBC and Bloomberg TV:
What's surprising is that Greg Smith's letter is not forgotten by the public already, which is what a lot of mainstream people expected.
When I was growing up in the 1950s, my teachers and my parents all hated bankers and I never understood why. I certainly do now. Banksters in the 1930s were doing exactly the same kinds of things that they're doing today, and they were hated for decades.
I remember how shocked I was in 2008 when I heard that banks were still going to give their employees million dollar bonuses, after they had created the financial crisis. Banksters have created an enormous amount of hatred -- not in the mainstream analysts or politicians, but in the vast majority of ordinary people. The mainstream analysts on CNBC and Bloomberg TV keep praying that this whole thing will blow over, but history tells us that it won't blow over for decades. Bloomberg
There is a suspicion, as I've stated many times, that although few Gen-Xers may be crooks, those few crooks were attracted to banking where they could put their skills to good use in defrauding people. There is some evidence that there are a disproportionate number of "financial psychopaths" on Wall Street. These people generally lack empathy and interest in what other people feel or think. At the same time, they display an abundance of charm, charisma, intelligence, credentials, an unparalleled capacity for lying, fabrication, and manipulation, and a drive for thrill seeking. An organization that wishes to screen such people out might look for the following characteristics:
Unfortunately for the rest of us, these characteristics are the sort that make a lot of money for corrupt banking institutions. Harvard Business Review
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 19-Mar-12 World View -- Beloved head of Egypt's Coptic Christian Orthodox Church draws huge crowds
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(19-Mar-2012)
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Vietnam accuses China of violating its sovereignty in Paracel Islands
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Rumors are spreading that Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez is more seriously ill than he's admitting, because of government refusals to provide details about his condition, as he returns from three weeks in Cuba for cancer surgery to remove an inch-long lesion that had appeared on the site where he’d had a baseball-sized tumor removed in June. Chávez faces a reelection campaign for an October 7 presidential election. Polls show Chávez ahead of his main opponent, Henrique Capriles, who opposes Chávez's expropriations and confiscations of private property. Miami Herald
Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari said Pakistan is seeking to restore ties with the U.S., during his fifth "state of the union" address to Pakistan's parliament. "Pakistan-U.S. relations are multidimensional and important” and they should be based on mutual respect. Pakistan wants to "engage meaningfully with the U.S." he said. A parliamentary committee on national defense is reviewing Pakistan’s ties with the U.S. after American helicopters attacked two Pakistani border posts on Nov. 26, killing 24 soldiers. In protest, Pakistan closed its border to the resupply of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and suspended much military and intelligence cooperation. The results of the review should be available within a couple of weeks. Zardari's speech was met with catcalls by the opposition. Bloomberg
It's rare for China to express public disapproval of its ally North Korea, so it's surprising that China is expressing "concern" over North Korea's announcement that it will launch a satellite in April, using a long-range rocket. North Korea claims that it's a peaceful use, but analysts note that the same rocket could be used to carry a nuclear weapon to Europe or the United States. North Korea's announcement came just two weeks after they agreed to halt their nuclear development, in exchange for food aid. It's quite possible that the food aid will now be canceled or delayed. Xinhua
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Tensions continue to grow between Vietnam and China over China's claim to complete sovereignty over the entire South China Sea region. Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry says in a statement Friday that a Chinese oil company has recently opened bidding for oil exploration near the Paracel islands, while earlier this month China conducted live firing exercises near the island and planned to expand tourism there. The statement quoted Foreign Ministry spokesman Luong Thanh Nghi as saying Chinese actions “seriously violate Vietnam’s sovereignty ... and international laws.” AP
Russia's reasons for refusing in the United Nations Security Council to permit any resolutions criticizing the violence by Syria's president Bashar al-Assad against his own people are complex. Russia has been struggling to gain influence in the Mideast for decades, and now Syria is its last Arab ally. Syria is also a heavy purchaser of Russian arms, and Syria hosts Russia's only remaining Mediterranean naval port, at Tartus. But there are also deeper reasons in Saudi Arabia's decades-old struggle against the Soviet Union and Russia as the "evil empire." Russia's troubled relationship with Saudi Arabia has a lot to do with its own internal challenges, mainly the remaining Muslim population under central Russian control in the Caucasus. The fundamental conflict was within the Soviet Union itself, which was telling people, including Muslims, to free themselves from the chains of religion, leading to repressions of Muslims, forcing many of them to migrate to the Hijaz, the western region of Saudi Arabia. Daily News (Egypt)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 18-Mar-12 World View -- Syria violence becomes a proxy war between Russia and Saudi Arabia
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(18-Mar-2012)
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Korea to launch long-range rocket, in violation of recent nuclear agreement
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
I'm having major web site problems with the web hosting service for this web site at Network Solutions. The result has been that it's been very difficult to get to this web site, and very hard for me to update it. Hopefully, things will be back to normal in a couple of days.
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Syria's massive new assault on innocent civilians in and around Idlib, near the border with Turkey, is driving huge numbers of new refugees -- over 1,000 per day according to some reports -- into Turkey's refugee camps. On Friday, Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, reacted to this worsening situation:
"We are making assessments including the withdrawal of our ambassador. There are also considerations about creating a buffer zone and a safe zone, we are evaluating alternatives."
The buffer zone would be a strip of land on Syria's side of border where Syrian refugees could flee for safety, protected by Turkey's army. The problem is that this would probably bring Turkey's army into conflict with Syria's army. Erdogan has talked about a security zone before and nothing came of it, but the situation is much worse now than it was last year. Zaman (Istanbul)
North Korea said Friday it will launch an earth observation satellite aboard a long-range rocket next month. The North Koreans are claiming that this is a "scientific" endeavor, but the same long-range rocket could also be used to transport nuclear weapons. It was just last month that the North Koreans agreed to stop development of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles, in exchange for food aid. This follows a familiar pattern where they promise something in return for money or food, and then ignore their promises after they've received the aid. The difference this time is that they didn't even wait to receive the aid, apparently believing they'd get it anyway. Yonhap (Seoul)
Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai on Friday accused the United States of stonewalling an investigation into the killings of 16 Afghan civilians and suggested that more than one soldier may have been involved in the massacre. After Karzai had a stormy meeting with the families of the victims of the massacre:
"They believe it’s not possible for one person to do that. In his family, in four rooms, people were killed, women and children were killed, and they were all brought together in one room and then put on fire. That, one man cannot do.[The Afghan army chief] has just reported that the Afghan investigation team did not receive the cooperation that they expected from the United States. Therefore these are all questions that we’ll be raising, and raising very loudly, and raising very clearly.
This has been going on for too long. This is by all means the end of the rope here.
This behavior cannot be tolerated. It is past, past, past the time."
Karzai reiterated his demand that the Nato withdrawal be completed by 2013, a year earlier than previously planned. Washington Post
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(17-Mar-2012)
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India develops asymmetric military strategy for border war with China
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Pressure continues to build for an early Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan, as President Hamid Karzai announced, after a Thursday meeting in Kabul with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, that Afghan forces should immediately begin to take over complete security responsibilities across the country, and that the entire process should be completed by 2013, a year earlier than planned. Karzai also called for coalition troops to retreat to their bases and end patrols through Afghan villages. At the same time, the Taliban suspended their so-called peace talks with Nato, saying that Washington was "shaky, erratic and vague." These announcements came in the wake of a series of disasters -- the burning of copies of the Koran by American soldiers, and the massacre of 16 civilians by a U.S. gunman. Karzai was said to be further infuriated by the news that the U.S. gunman had been flown out of the country to a base in Kuwait. The situation is beginning to look increasingly like a rout like the one that American's suffered when they hurriedly left Vietnam in 1974. In that case, they left behind an extremely bloody civil war in Vietnam and Cambodia. In this case, what they're likely to be leaving behind is a proxy war between Pakistan and India in Afghanistan. Guardian
Everyone's breathing a sigh of relief now that the second bailout of Greece has been approved, and everyone can live happily ever after, but in fact there may be a new Greek crisis in a matter of weeks. With Greece's economy spiraling into oblivion, it's clear to everyone that Greece is going to need a third bailout if it's to avoid bankruptcy. With many countries, led by Germany, Finland and Austria, increasingly hostile to the idea of any further bailouts, the markets are increasingly betting that Greece is going into bankruptcy anyway, as 2-year bond yields (interest rates) have falled from 40%, but are still at 20% and unlikely to fall further. (By comparison, U.S. 2-year Treasury yields are 1.1%.) Greece is expected to hold an election on April 22, which is expected to produce a left-wing majority deeply opposed to the strict austerity program imposed by Brussels. Thus, a new Greek crisis could be less than six weeks away. Spiegel
Greece's bailout involved forcing private investors to take big losses, and Ireland would like to do the same thing with its debt. Ireland owes a €3.1 billion debt repayment to the ECB on March 31, and wants to delay the payment and reduce the interest rate. However, the Irish were infuriated when EU Commissioner Olli Rehn dismissed the idea, saying that Irish people "must respect their commitments and obligations." Ireland's Finance Minister Michael Noonan says that he hopes that a deal with the EU can still be reached, and he excused Rehn's remarks by saying, "I think he was a bit frayed at the press conference and was caught unawares, and didn’t put things in context. He is conscious of that himself." Irish Times
Although India and China have been holding on-and-off talks on their border dispute for decades, military tensions in the border regions have been increasing steadily, and no one seriously believes that the talks will accomplish anything without an actual border war. China has been far more aggressive than India in building infrastructure along the borders, China has invested in major infrastructure projects in the Tibetan Autonomous Region and along the Sino-Indian border, including road and rail links that allow it to mobilize large forces with supporting logistics in a short period of time, as well as new air bases and forward airstrips. It also has 160,000 troops and intermediate-range ballistic missiles positioned in Tibet. Faced with a situation where China is rapidly preparing overwhelming military force for a border war where India would face defeat quickly, India is developing an "asymmetric" strategy. Instead of focusing on preventing the loss of any piece of territory in the event of a border conflict, India would respond to a Chinese land-grab with a land-grab of its own to give it leverage to restore the status quo. Wow, that sounds like a sure winner to me. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
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(16-Mar-2012)
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Executive describes illegal activities at Goldman Sachs
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Greg Smith, a senior executive at Goldman Sachs, resigned on Wednesday, and published an op-ed attacking the toxic Goldman culture and, by extension, the entire Generation-X culture. Here are some excerpts:
"Today is my last day at Goldman Sachs. After almost 12 years at the firm — first as a summer intern while at Stanford, then in New York for 10 years, and now in London — I believe I have worked here long enough to understand the trajectory of its culture, its people and its identity. And I can honestly say that the environment now is as toxic and destructive as I have ever seen it.To put the problem in the simplest terms, the interests of the client continue to be sidelined in the way the firm operates and thinks about making money. ... I have always taken a lot of pride in advising my clients to do what I believe is right for them, even if it means less money for the firm. This view is becoming increasingly unpopular at Goldman Sachs. ...
How did we get here? The firm changed the way it thought about leadership. Leadership used to be about ideas, setting an example and doing the right thing. Today, if you make enough money for the firm (and are not currently an ax murderer) you will be promoted into a position of influence.
What are three quick ways to become a leader?
- a) Execute on the firm’s “axes,” which is Goldman-speak for persuading your clients to invest in the stocks or other products that we are trying to get rid of because they are not seen as having a lot of potential profit.
- b) “Hunt Elephants.” In English: get your clients — some of whom are sophisticated, and some of whom aren’t — to trade whatever will bring the biggest profit to Goldman. Call me old-fashioned, but I don’t like selling my clients a product that is wrong for them.
- c) Find yourself sitting in a seat where your job is to trade any illiquid, opaque product with a three-letter acronym.
Today, many of these leaders display a Goldman Sachs culture quotient of exactly zero percent. I attend derivatives sales meetings where not one single minute is spent asking questions about how we can help clients. It’s purely about how we can make the most possible money off of them. If you were an alien from Mars and sat in on one of these meetings, you would believe that a client’s success or progress was not part of the thought process at all.
It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off. Over the last 12 months I have seen five different managing directors refer to their own clients as “muppets,” sometimes over internal e-mail. Even after the S.E.C., Fabulous Fab, Abacus, God’s work, Carl Levin, Vampire Squids? No humility? I mean, come on. Integrity? It is eroding. I don’t know of any illegal behavior, but will people push the envelope and pitch lucrative and complicated products to clients even if they are not the simplest investments or the ones most directly aligned with the client’s goals? Absolutely. Every day, in fact.
It astounds me how little senior management gets a basic truth: If clients don’t trust you they will eventually stop doing business with you. It doesn’t matter how smart you are.
These days, the most common question I get from junior analysts about derivatives is, “How much money did we make off the client?” It bothers me every time I hear it, because it is a clear reflection of what they are observing from their leaders about the way they should behave.
Now project 10 years into the future: You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the junior analyst sitting quietly in the corner of the room hearing about “muppets,” “ripping eyeballs out” and “getting paid” doesn’t exactly turn into a model citizen."
Commentary on this letter in the mainstream media has been to sympathize with Goldman's "public relations problem" resulting from this letter, and to generate mocking criticisms of the letter.
But at this point, after banksters at Goldman and elsewhere created tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent securities that caused the global financial crisis, I don't think anyone doubts the credibility of what Smith is saying.
Furthermore, I doubt that anyone any longer believes that Smith's accusations are unique to Goldman Sachs. This "screw the investor, especially the Boomer investor" attitude pervades the entire Generation-X culture.
Smith says, "I don’t know of any illegal behavior." He writes this in a letter where he's documenting plenty of illegal behavior. He says, "It makes me ill how callously people talk about ripping their clients off," and he explains that they rip their clients off by advising them to buy losing securities. Well, that's illegal behavior. Goldman's advisors have a fiduciary duty to their clients to give them the best advice. New York Times
What you should get out of this, Dear Reader, is what I've been saying for years: The same people who defrauded you and created the global financial crisis are still in the same positions and are still defrauding people.
Nobody cares about you except to take your money. I've documented many cases of provable lies on CNBC and Bloomberg TV by people who want to make commissions, but nobody cares because the liars purchase advertising. This is particularly true when they talk about price/earnings ratios (stock valuations) -- they ALWAYS lie about that because nobody cares. (See "Price/earnings ratio (valuations) trending toward collapse" from February.)
And of course the same is true of politicians in all parties in Washington, Brussels and Beijing, as I've documented many, many times.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the Generation-X culture vs Boomer culture thread of the Generational
Dynamics forum.)
(15-Mar-2012)
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Anti-migrant xenophobia growing in Athens over Greece's financial crisis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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China's Premier Wen Jiabao was born in 1942, and grew up during the worst of Mao's bloody Communist Revolution civil war, and he's every well aware that it could happen again. Indeed, with tens of thousands, or perhaps hundreds of thousands of "mass incidents" occurring every year in China, it could happen again at any time. In fact, Wen has spoken frequently of the dangers that China faces because it as essentially a caste system where the elite are in the Communist Party and the ordinary peasants and workers are not. (See "Wen Jiabao: China is 'unsteady, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable'" from 2007.) On Wednesday, at the National People's Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, Wen gave the last major speech of his career, and said the following at the press conference:
"Now reforms in China have come to a critical stage. Without a successful political reform, it's impossible for China to fully institute economic reform and the gains we have made in these areas may be lost, and new problems that popped up in the Chinese society will not be fundamentally resolved, and such historical tragedies as the Cultural Revolution may happen again in China."
The Cultural Revolution was the extremely violent period from 1966 to 1976, but was not a civil war by any means. Mao Zedong, having been disgraced by killing tens of millions of Chinese people through famine and starvation in the Great Leap Forward of 1958-59, wanted to restore the revolutionary spirit of his Communist Revolution. Here's an account by historian Peter N. Stearns:
"The Red Guards, mostly younger students, soon brought the country to the verge of chaos; they fought pitched battles, carried out summary executions, drove thousands to suicide, and forced tens of thousands into labor camps, usually far from home. Intellectuals were sent to the countryside to learn the virtues of peasant life. Countless art and cultural treasures as well as books were destroyed, and universities were shut down. Insulting posters and other personal attacks, often motivated by blind revenge, were mounted against educators, experts in all fields, and other alleged proponents of "old thought" or "old culture," namely, anything pre-Maoist."
A repeat of the Cultural Revolution is by no means the greatest danger that China faces. The Cultural Revolution was sporadic violence in a generational Awakening era. It was a lot more violent than America's Awakening era in the 1960s, but it still was nowhere close to a civil war. Indeed, China's history is full of massive civil war rebellions, such as the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805) and the Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), killing millions or tens of millions of people. These occur at regular intervals, with each new one occurring at about the time that the survivors of the preceding one die off. The last of these rebellions was Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49), and now it's time for the next one. That's what Wen is afraid of and his fear is justified. Xinhua
The country Greece, and Athens in particular, has been transformed into a depot of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers, who survive on below-subsistence incomes won in a vast black market. Certain areas of the capital have been morphing slowly into semi-permanent migrant quarters with the municipality estimating that in certain central areas, Greeks number less than four percent of the population. Many of the migrants pour through the porous border with Turkey, through the Aegean Sea or the northeast mainland boundary of the river Evros, hoping to reach northern Europe, but instead remain stuck in limbo in Greece. In years past, migrants may have been simply a nuisance, but today the mutual xenophobia between migrants and Greeks is leading to increasing violence. According to a police statement:
"Migrants are at the same moment victims and perpetrators of crime. They arrive in a country in which social cohesion is challenged and welfare and social structures that could support them are on the point of collapse. At the same time they are under enormous pressure from international trafficking networks that push more and more of these people into criminal activity."
Certain areas of the capital have been morphing slowly into semi-permanent migrant quarters with the municipality estimating that in certain central areas, Greeks number less than four percent of the population. Inter Press Service (IPS)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 15-Mar-12 World View -- China's Wen Jiabao warns of new 'Cultural Revolution'
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(15-Mar-2012)
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Greece receives bailout, but faces harsh new austerity demands
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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With Pakistan's border closed to Nato supply convoys, the Manas military base in Kyrgyzstan takes on increased importance as a transit center for to and from the war in landlocked Afghanistan. U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is visiting Kyrgyzstan to convince the government to extend the U.S. lease on Manas past its current 2014 expiration. U.S. combat troops are scheduled to withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, the same year the Manas lease expires. But the drawdown calendar is still unclear and it is possible that tens of thousands of U.S. forces may be moving out of Afghanistan in the final months of the year, when the lease would have already terminated. RFE/RL
U.S. drone aircraft struck twice in Pakistan’s unruly tribal regions along the border with Afghanistan on Tuesday, killing 15 suspected militants, including two senior commanders of the Pakistani Taliban. In the first attack, four missiles were fired into a vehicle traveling through a mountainous area in South Waziristan. "The target of the attack was fighters of commander Maulvi Nazir. A total of eight fighters were killed in this attack," according to a Pakistani official. Seven suspected militants were killed in the second attack later in the day, when a drone fired missiles at a vehicle on the border between North and South Waziristan. U.S. drone strikes are extremely unpopular with Pakistan's public, but they're tacitly approved by Pakistan's military. Pakistan is reviewing its U.S. alliance in the wake of the November deaths and has kept its Afghan border closed to Nato supply convoys since then. Dawn (Islamabad)
Greece's politicians are relieved that European officials and the IMF have finally approved the new bailout package, in time to avoid bankruptcy by making a huge payment due on March 20. However, unlike the first bailout package, the new bailout package will be provided in dribs and drabs, small monthly installments, just enough to make interest and debt repayments, so that everyone can be certain that they won't just waste it all. Greece's economy is in a rapidly accelerating spiral downwards, and so it isn't surprising that a new report by the European Commission on the Greek economy foresees the country having to adopt another €12 billion of austerity measures in 2013 and 2014. All these people in Europe are just sitting around, hoping and praying that something magical will happen and Greece's economy will turn around and start to grow again. If Europe's politicians knew anything about generational theory, then they would know that such a turnaround is literally impossible in this generational crisis era, and they would adopt quite different policies. Kathimerini
Seething over austerity measures created by an economic crisis, and disgusted with the two major parties of PASOK Socialists and New Democracy Conservatives that have ruled for more than 30 years, Greeks are turning away from them in record numbers. With new elections scheduled for this spring, two dozen political groups, eager to fill the political vacuum, have sprung up, some formed by former MPs who were tossed out of PASOK and New Democracy for voting against austerity measures imposed by the Europeans. This is the kind of chaos where someone from the extreme left or extreme right can come to power. Southeast European Times
Some 500 Syrians refugees from the northern city of Idlib poured across the border into Turkey on Tuesday, the highest number of Syrian refugees to cross into Turkey in a single day. The number might have been greater, but reports indicate that the army of president Bashar al-Assad placed land mines in the roads along the routes used by refugees to flee the incessant shelling of residential neighborhoods, so that they can be blown up by land mines instead. Turkey currently hosts 14,000 Syrian refugees, and officials have promised to build as many additional refugee camps as are necessary. Zaman (Istanbul)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 14-Mar-12 World View -- Multiple U.S. drone strikes kill 15 militants in Pakistan's tribal area
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(14-Mar-2012)
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Vietnam to send Buddhist monks to Spratly Islands in South China Sea
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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As expected, the regime forces of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, have massacred thousands of people in Homs, is now turning its attention to Idlib, near the border with Turkey. According to on-site reporter that I heard on Al-Jazeera, the army's tanks encircled Idlib and then, on cue, they all moved into the town and poured explosive shells onto residential neighborhoods, as they had done in Homs. All of this took place as former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan was leaving Damascus after a meeting where al-Assad made a fool of him. But Annan said he was "hopeful" anyway, so that when the violence stops, whether it's days, weeks or months from now, Annan can take credit and claim that he was the one who brought peace. AFP
After four days of escalating violence between Israel and Gaza, an unnamed Egyptian security official said that his country had mediated a cease-fire between the belligerents. In the past four days, over 200 rockets have been launched from Gaza into Israel, and Israel has launched airstrikes at militants in Gaza. It appears that neither Israel nor Hamas wants a wider war, but the Gaza rockets have been launched by younger generations of Gaza terrorists, including Islamic Jihad and the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC). CBS/AP
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In a move that's certain to stir Chinese nationalist anger, Vietnam is sending six Buddhist monds to re-establish abandoned temples on the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. The temples were last inhabited in 1975, but were recently renovated as part of efforts to assert Vietnamese sovereignty over the Spratly Islands. Since 2009, China has been extremely aggressive in claiming that a huge region in the South China Sea, including many islands that have historically been part of other countries' territories, is sovereign Chinese territory, and that China has all oil and gas rights to the region, and has the right to control passage of all naval traffic. The islands have no indigenous population, and just a smattering of military and industrial settlements. The duties of the monks will include taking care of the shrines and attending to the spiritual needs of the islands' small population. BBC
America is already committed to leaving Afghanistan by 2014, but the weekend's horrific shooting by a U.S. Army sargeant has made it more likely that the withdrawal of troops and equipment will be sped up, even if the final date will remain the same. In the middle of the night, a US Army sergeant opened fire on Afghan villagers as they slept, killing 16 people - mostly women and children -- in an attack that has raised Afghan fury at U.S. presence, threatening the deepest breach yet in U.S.-Afghan relations. Afghan president Hamid Karzai was bitterly critical, calling it "an assassination, an intentional killing of innocent civilians and cannot be forgiven," and suggesting that it was a premeditated attack by a group of American soldiers on civilians. The attack represents an enormous public relations victory for the Taliban, with whom the United States is supposedly negotiating a withdrawal in Qatar. The soldier has not yet been named, but Afghans are demanding that he be tried and convicted by Afghan courts. He will, in fact, be tried in American courts, and that entire process will be further public relations fodder for the Taliban. Wales Online
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 13-Mar-12 World View -- Afghanistan shooting increases pressure for faster withdrawal
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Mar-2012)
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Tit for tat violence in Gaza poses dilemma for Hamas
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Syria's president Bashar al-Assad on Sunday rebuffed a peacemaking mission by former U.N. secretary-general Kofi Annan. At the same time, his regime's security forces mounted a major assault on Idlib in north Syria. Panicked civilians clutching blankets attempted to flee, but were trapped after the army sealed all exits. Human Rights groups said that 54 civilians, mostly in and around Idlib, were killed over the weekend. Rebel fighters, many of them army defectors, held their positions for several hours, sheltering behind walls to return fire against the advancing tanks with automatic weapons. But as their casualties began to mount, most fighters withdrew, leaving only pockets of resistance, activists in Idlib said. Telegraph
Israeli air raids on the Gaza Strip yesterday killed a 12-year-old boy and two other Palestinians, bringing the death toll during three days of fighting to 18 Palestinians, according to medical sources. The spike in tit-for-tat violence is one of the worst since Israel launched its three-week war on the Palestinian enclave in December 2008. Analysts attributed the escalation of mortar and rocket fire, in part, to a bid by Gaza's Hamas rulers to prove they had not gone soft on Israel. Previously, the Palestinian-Islamist group had prevented such attacks. Hamas is under a lot of pressure because they've angered Iran by severing ties with Syria, as the Bashar al-Assad regime massacres innocent Arabs. The National (UAE)
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a political confederation of Gulf Arab states led by Saudi Arabia, is considering a "unified Gulf army" able to respond to external and domestic security threats, especially from Iran and from Iran-suppported anti-government protests. The army will be an extension of the already existing Peninsula Shield Force (PSF) that was successfully deployed last year to control violent street protests by Bahrain’s Shia minority. That isn't Saudi Arabia's only concern, however. If Syria's turmoil escalates further, Syria and Iran might use it to try to destabilize the Saudi regime by empowering the two million strong Saudi Shia minority, concentrated mainly in the Eastern Province (al-Sharqiyah), which holds the world's largest oil fields. Saudi Arabia has in the past tried and failed to convince Israel to abandon its nuclear weapons, and now that Iran may be seeking to possess a nuclear bomb, the kingdom has to protect its people through all possible options, according to Prince Turki al-Faisal. Jamestown
The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday to give final approval to the second bailout package for Greece. The €130 billion bailout loan package comes after Greece succeeded in "restructuring" its debt by forcing investors to swap their Greek bonds for new guaranteed bonds, but with only 25% of the nominal value of the old bonds. Now that the Greece problem is "solved," the eurozone finance ministers will turn their attention to other problem areas. First on the agenda will be Spain, whose prime minister just announced will be far higher than previously forecast. Portugal and Ireland will be on the agenda, as they may demand a loan "restructuring" similar to the one Greece got. And, last but not least, Greece's second bailout will not solve its problems by any means, and a third bailout may be required. AFP
Illegal immigration is turning into a major hot-button issue in France's presidential campaign, mainly because of the increasing popularity of Marine Le Pen of the anti-immigration National Front party, considered by many to be a far-right party. Current president Nicolas Sarkozy, who is well behind Socialist Party candidate François Hollande in the polls, made a move that some are considering a desperation move to prevent votes from being siphoned off by Le Pen. He threatened Sunday to pull France out of the European Union's Schengen zone, a zone which permits visa-free travel, with no border checks, among all 27 EU member states except Britain and Ireland. As we reported yesterday, Austria and Germany are suggesting that their borders with Greece be closed because of illegal immigrants entering Greece from Turkey. The Schengen zone is an extremely emotional issue with many Europeans, because they consider it to be a significant achievement in the plan to prevent anything as horrible as a repeat of World War II in Europe. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 12-Mar-12 World View -- Gulf Arab states consider a 'unified Gulf army' to counter Iran
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Mar-2012)
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China has largest trade deficit since 1989
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Former U.N. chief Kofi Annan, who was vitriolically contemptuous of President George Bush but is best pals with Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, was made a fool of on Saturday, when he met with al-Assad in Damascus to convince him to end the violence. Al-Assad told him what he wanted to hear -- that he would make an "honest effort" to achieve peace in his country. At the same time, however, al-Assad regime forces were launching brutal attacks on civilians in Idlib. Al-Assad has massacred thousands of people in Homs, and it's now feared that the regime will treat Idlib in the same way. Since Idlib is near the border with Turkey, there will be thousands of refugees pouring into Turkey, which may force Turkey to react in some way. VOA
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Although I don't mention this every day, Syria is in a generational awakening era, and so it's impossible that this will spiral into a major civil war. In the ten years since I've been posting these analyses, we've seen situations in other awakening era countries -- Iraq, Iran, Thailand and Lebanon -- where almost all mainstream analysts feared or predicted a civil war, but where the Generational Dynamics analysis, as I reported each time, was that a civil war was impossible, or that it would fizzle quickly if started. The same thing will undoubtedly happen in Syria. There will be an awakening era climax, just as there was in America's last awakening era, when President Nixon was forced to resign in 1974. The current hostilities will end in some sort of climax, with either al-Assad stepping down or completely crushing the opposition. Right now it looks far more likely that the latter will happen.
After several months of relative calm, the hostilities between Israel and Gaza militants, have suddenly taken a shart turn upward. Over 100 rockets have been fired from Gaza into southern Israel in the last two days, and Israel has responded with a series of bombing attacks on suspected militants in Gaza. Although Hamas is the governing organization in Gaza, they do not control everyone, especially as Hamas is increasingly seen as representing an older generation. It's most likely that the rockets are being fired by another militant organization, probably Islamic Jihad, representing a younger generation of terrorists. Jerusalem Post
Germany and Austria warned that they would introduce border controls with Greece. But the reason given had nothing to do directly with the financial crisis. The problem is illegal immigrants entering Europe through the border between Greece and Turkey. According to Austrian Interior Minister Johanna Mikl-Leitner,
"The (Greek) border is open like a barn door. The pressure on Greece must be increased ... It cannot be that a member state which does not do its homework gets away with it scot-free."
Greece has failed to meet the terms of an EU-agreed plan to secure its borders -- Greece has so far hired only 11 out of 300 extra immigration officials. Deutsche Presse-Agentur (DPA)
In another sign of turbulence in China's economy, China announced that in February China had the largest trade deficit since at least 1989. China normally has a trade surplus. The February results were caused by a big fall in exports, thanks to the European fiscal crisis, and by a big rise in imports, probably related to the Lunar New Year celebrations. At the same time, the rate of inflation has been slowing, while industrial output and retail sales have slumped. China's economy has been spiraling downward at least since October, when the country's gargantuan real estate bubble started collapsing. Bloomberg
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Pakistan Taliban, are demanding that the three widows of Osama bin Laden be released immediately. The TTP vowed revenge after bin Laden’s death last year, and carried out high-profile attacks across Pakistan. It bombed an American consulate convoy, laid siege to a naval base and killed paramilitary cadets. Now the TTP are threatening revenge for the arrest of the three TTP widows:
"If the family of Osama bin Laden is not released as soon as possible, we will attack the judges, the lawyers and the security officials involved in their trial.We will carry out suicide bombings against security forces and the government across the country."
On Thursday, Pakistan charged the widows will illegally entering and staying in the country. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 11-Mar-12 World View -- Germany and Austria threaten to close borders with Greece
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Yemen seeks $3-5 billion bailout from 'Friends of Yemen'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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South Koreans have been demonstrating in front of China's embassy in Seoul to protest China's plans to repatriate dozens of North Korean defectors, sending them back to North Korea, rather than letting them continue to South Korea. North Koreans defecting to the South often do so by traveling through China, hoping not to get caught by Chinese police. According to the South Korean lawmaker who sparked the protests, "The North Korean defectors didn't flee their country to live in China. They left so they could live in South Korea. China should respect that." AP
Politicians have been saying for months that a default on Greece's debt will not be tolerated, but on Friday Greece avoided a default by calling it a "restructuring." This whole saga has been amazing. It was on July 21 of last year that European officials devised this plan where private investors would "voluntarily" lose 21% of their investments in Greek bonds in order to bail out Greece, and all it would take would be a few weeks to iron out some details. It had to be "voluntary" so that Greece would not go into default.
As the weeks went by, it became clear to everyone that 21% would not be enough to save Greece. The amount was raised to 50%, then to 68%, and now stands at 75% -- that the private sector investors (PSIs) would lose. There was a question about how many private investors would be willing to take that loss "voluntarily." Greece announced on Friday that 85.8% of the eligible bonds would participate in the voluntary bond swap. It will be interesting to see in the next few weeks what kind of threats and extortion were used to convince that many private investors to participate. I wouldn't be surprised if there were some physical threats involved.
Once the "voluntary" bonds were accounted for, the next step was to force others to participate involuntarily. This was done through retroactive "collective action clauses" (CACs), bringing the total participation rate to 95.7% of the total eligible bonds.
This was pretty clearly a form of default, but there have been questions about whether the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (IDSA) would call this a "credit event" that would trigger the insurance payments to investors who had purchased credit default swaps (CDSs). There had been concern that politicians would pressure the IDSA to NOT call this a credit event, but a credit event was announced shortly after the CACs were announced.
The result is that Greece's debt has been "restructured," which is not a bankruptcy and not a default, though it is a credit event.
This will trigger about $3 billion in insurance payouts to holders of CDSs. In this kind of situation, there are always concerns of a chain reaction of bankruptcies, but politicians have been downplaying this.
The successful completion of the bond swap was a requirement of the EU and IMF for approving the next bailout of Greece. Presumably the bailout will now be approved, in time for Greece to make its next bond payment on March 20, when €14.5 billion in bond repayments are due. Reuters
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The bond swap relieves Greece of about €100 billion in debt, which will save Greece a great deal of money in interest and debt repayments. In a televised speech on Friday night, Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said that the deal served as a "window of opportunity and hope." He said:
"From within a deep recession, and the trials of the Greek people, there rises the hope for an exit from the worst crisis since World War II.We do not have the right to waste the money that we will save in interest and debt repayments. We must use it to modernize our infrastructure, make our economy more competitive, put the state in order.
[The country will emerge from the] quicksand of the past few months. For the first time Greece is not adding to but reducing the debt burden on its citizens and the next generations.
This is an interesting statement because it's widely feared that powerful labor unions will force the government to use any available money simply to increase public sector wages and benefits. Kathimerini
Few people credibly believe that there won't be a new Greek crisis within a matter of weeks. The entire bailout plan that's supposed to save Greece is based on assumptions of economic growth that, with absolute certainty, will not be met. As if to prove the point, Greece's government announced that the economy had contracted by 7.5% in the last quarter of 2011, much worse than expected. Dow Jones
Yemen's government will present to the "Friends of Yemen" meeting in Saudi Arabia on April 23 a request for an emergency infusion of $3-5 billion in aid for "salvage and revival," following a year of protests and violence that forced Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down as president. The Friends of Yemen forum will include the United States, European Union countries and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Yemen says that the money would go towards the state budget, infrastructure projects and aid to help poor Yemenis buy food and fuel. The National (UAE)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 10-Mar-12 World View -- Greece completes bond swap deal with non-default default
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Woman troubles led to bin Laden's demise, as his wives are now arrested
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Even international terrorists are no different from the rest of us men when it comes to women troubles. Research by retired Pakistani army officer Shaukat Qadir indicates the 27 people living in bin Laden's Abbottabad compound, including two of his three living wives (three others had died), and numerous childen, all got on well with one another. However, the tranquility of the large household was shattered when it was joined early last year by the oldest of his remaining three wives, Khairiah Sabar. She was the one who sold out bin Laden, according to Qadir. He doesn't say why she betrayed him, but he gives a clue. His last wife, Amal Ahmed Abdel-Fatah al-Sada, aged 31, was much younger than him, and younger than his other wives, and "Bin Laden didn't sleep with any of his other wives after marrying Amal," according to Qadir. Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. Anyway, the three wives and their children were rounded up after the U.S. raid that killed bin Laden, and were told that they would be deported to their home country. But now the three wives have been charged with illegal entry into the country, and will not be permitted to leave. Globe and Mail and The Hindu
It's becoming increasingly apparent to everybody that Bashar al-Assad has made fools of the Arab League, the U.N. and the west in general, by by succeeding in killing, mutilating and exterminating thousands of his own innocent Arab civilians under the everybody's noses, and they couldn't do a damn thing about it. Ban Ki-moon, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, runs around like a chicken with his head cut off, saying, "This has got to stop! This has got to stop." He's been parroting those words for a year. And Kofi Annan, the virulently anti-American former Secretary-General of the United Nations from Ghana, sounds like an idiot when he travels to Damascus and tells everyone in the West to leave poor Bashar alone, or he'll make things worse for everyone. The U.N. sent their emergency aid chief, Valerie Amos, to Syria to check out Homs, which has been the subject of a full scale army attack on residential neighborhoods for the last few weeks. Al-Assad's troops cleaned up the dead bodies and debris from the portion of Homs that they wanted her to see, and she said how "concerned" she is about what happened to the people. Activists ridiculed her visit and one said, "To tell the truth, we know that Valerie Amos is useless. We have had one year of killing, shooting and bombing and nobody has moved a finger." Independent
Euphoric Wall Street investors popped champagne corks again, pushing the stock market bubble higher, as European officials hinted that Greece's "voluntary" bond swap had been successful. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos will announce early on Friday morning how many private bondholders had committed to exchange their old toxic Greek bonds for shiny new European bonds worth 75% less. On Thursday, some politicians suggested that only 66% of the eligible bonds -- the bare minimum requirement -- had been committed, while other politicians said that over 90% of the eligible bonds had been committed. The exact figure matters, because a lower figure would force a "credit event," triggering the payment of insurance policies in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs) held by private investors, with unknown consequences. Reuters
With the situations in Syria and Iran taking top headlines in the media, the Palestinians feel all but forgotten in their quest for a Palestinian state. Their attempts to get the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state seemed audacious last year, but now that's all in the distant past. On Thursday, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas said he would deliver the "mother of all letters" to Israel, stating minimum conditions for resuming the peace process: – a full cessation of settlement construction and recognition of the June 4, 1967 lines as the future borders of a Palestinian state. Chief Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat responded to unconfirmed reports that the letter would contain a threat to dismantle the PA and walk away from the peace process by saying that the letter would not contain any threats. But the Palestinians gave no clue what they plan to do after they deliver this letter and it gets ignored as well. Jerusalem Post
Many in northern Italy have long wanted to secede, and now the euro crisis is giving the separatist movement new momentum. Money is at the core of the dispute. The northern province of South Tyrol is expected to contribute €120 million ($161 million) to cleaning up the Italian national budget. To do so, it will have to raise real estate, value-added and income taxes, as well as fees paid by farmers -- measures that violate Rome's promise that 90 percent of the taxes collected in South Tyrol will stay in South Tyrol. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 9-Mar-12 World View -- Frustrated, marginalized Palestinians wonder about their next step
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-Mar-2012)
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Deadline arrives for private investor deal over Greece's debt
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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French president Nicolas Sarkozy, considered almost certain to lose the upcoming presidential election to Socialist challenger François Hollande, and has declared that there are too many foreigners in France:
"Our system of integration is working increasingly badly, because we have too many foreigners on our territory and we can no longer manage to find them accommodation, a job, a school."
He has now vowed to cut immigration by half and limit state benefits for legal migrants. Guardian
By the end of the day on Thursday, we should know whether enough private bondholders have agreed to take part in the bond swap deal where they lose 75% of their investment but they stave off a disorderly default by Greece. At least 66% of the outstanding bonds, and preferably at least 75%, will have to take part in the trade to allow Greece to apply "collective action clauses" (CACs) to the remaining bondholders to force them to accept an even harsher bond swap deal. Kathimerini
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Israeli defense officials have confirmed a deal to sell Azerbaijan drones, antiaircraft, and missile defense systems for some $1.6 billion. The news of Israel's sale of the military equipment comes as tensions over Iran's nuclear program are reaching critical levels. Azerbaijan shares a 600 km border with Iran, and Iran's Foreign Ministry previously had accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israel's spy agency Mossad to operate in Azerbaijan as a base to spy on Iran and to carry out terrorist operations against Iran, accusations that are denied. Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry says that, "Our foreign policy is not directed against anyone else," and explains that the weapons were bought "to liberate occupied Azerbaijani land," a reference to the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which was seized from Azerbaijan by Armenian forces during a war in the 1990s. The foreign ministry also cited the continuing conflict with neighbor Armenia over Karabakh, where no peace deal has yet been signed, despite years of negotiations since the 1994 ceasefire. Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Press TV (Tehran)
For the first time since the Georgia war in 2008, Russia is substantially reinforcing its military forces in the Caucasus, in expectation of a war involving Iran this summer, concerns that have only increased with the announcement of of the Israeli arms sale to Azerbaijan. However, it's not believed that the weapons were procured for use against Iran. Instead, the Foreign Ministry statement that the weapons were bought "to liberate occupied Azerbaijani land," means that the real danger is that Azerbaijan will launch a war with Armenia, and that will lead to a larger regional war involving Iran. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 8-Mar-12 World View -- Russia preparing for a Caucasus war involving Iran
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-Mar-2012)
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Eastern Libya (Cyrenaica) declares semi-autonomy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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It's been a puzzle to me why any private investor would participate in Greece's "voluntary" bond swap by the Thursday 3pm ET deadline, where they would lose 75% of their investment, since the "punishment" for not participating is that they would be forced to do so anyway by retroactive "collective action clauses" (CACs) imposed by the Greek government. The answer to the puzzle has now been revealed. Greece’s Public Debt Management Agency (PDMA) issued a statement saying that the terms of the CACs would be much harsher than those of the voluntary bond swap, presumably costing the investors 80-85% of their investment. (Could somebody please e-mail me with the definition of the word "voluntary"? I'm suddenly drawing a blank on what it's supposed to mean.) Greece's six biggest banks confirmed on Tuesday that they would take part in the voluntary bond swap, but several pension funds said that they would not. Greece is hoping that 66% of the outstanding eligible bonds will be offered; less than 66% means that the CACs can't be enforced, and there will likely be a disorderly default of Greek debt. (Paragraph corrected - 7-March) Kathimerini
The no-longer-secret peace talks between the U.S. and the Taliban have the given the Taliban a great deal of international prestige. According to one Taliban spokesman:
"After 10 years of jihad and steadfastness on the part of the Afghan people against the arrogant occupiers, the entire world is aware of the strength of the Afghan jihad and has accepted the reality of the situation in the Afghan arena. This has caused many countries in the world to desire contact with the Islamic Emirate and the political office of the Islamic Emirate. The Islamic Emirate will welcome the opening of its political offices in these countries and others, if this is approved."
The Taliban think of the peace talks as tactics aimed at getting the Taliban prisoners freed from the Guantanamo Bay prison and getting the Taliban commanders de-listed from the UN terror blacklist and the U.S. terror watchlist. the Pakistani military establishment, which is considered as the final arbiter of power in Islamabad, has been dictating the country's foreign policy aimed at ensuring Pakistan's strategic shift away from the U.S. and closer to China. At the behest of the Pakistani military's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), some relatively independent Sunni terrorist groups -- the Afghanistan Taliban, the Haqqani network, the Pakistani Taliban (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP) and other militant groups -- have announced the formation of the Shura Muraqba (coordination council). The objective is to end attacks on Pakistani civilians, and to concentrate efforts on defeating American forces. MEMRI
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Since the end of the war and the death of former leader Muammar Gaddafi, Libya has been unable to form a unified government in Tripoli, with different militias and ethnic groups holding power in different regions, and even in different sections of Tripoli itself. The cradle of the anti-Gaddafi revolution was Cyrenaica (eastern Libya) or Barqa in Arabic, particularly Benghazi, and now Cyrenaica is taking the controversial step of declaring semi-autonomy from Tripoli, comparing it to the situation in America:
"We are not looking to split the country. We are not looking for division at all. Our target is to keep Libya united. We are hoping to run our region. ... We have the federal government, and we have the local government."
The move is particularly controversial, because most of Libya's oil reserves are located in Cyrenaica. CNN
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 7-Mar-12 World View -- Taliban and al-Qaeda reorganize, while Pakistan's army realigns with China
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-Mar-2012)
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U.S. military will fund offensive cyber warfare capabilities
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel has agreed with other conservative European leaders to help France's President Nicolas Sarkozy in the French election campaign, by spurning his Socialist challenger François Hollande. Leading conservative governments in the EU -- those in Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom -- have agreed not to receive Sarkozy's opponent during the campaign. But despite Merkel's open support of Sarkozy, the latter still trails Hollande in opinion polls, six weeks ahead of the presidential election. Spiegel
Meeting in the Oval Office on Monday, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama apparently avoided the touchy subjects that had caused an open split at last year's meeting: the 1967 borders, and the West Bank settlements. Instead, they focused on preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, an issue on which they agree in principle. After the meeting, American officials said that Netanyahu indirectly conveyed the message that Israel has not yet decided whether or not to attack Iran's nuclear facilities -- a message that eminently believable. Obama, on the other hand, appears to have done an about-face at least on his rhetoric, now giving full-throated support to Israel whereas, in the past, his rhetoric implied that he was taking the side of the Palestinians. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Iran is in a generational awakening era, making an unprovoked attack by them almost impossible. On the other hand, Israel is in a generational crisis era, so a panicked attack on Iran is a possibility, but is unlikely without American cooperation. Ynet
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad supposedly has two major allies in the Mideast -- Iran and the Lebanon-based terror group Hizbollah. In fact, Hizbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah has given fiery speeches supporting al-Assad and condemning the Syrian opposition. However, what al-Assad really wanted was for Hizbollah to open up a battlefront with Israel, so that worldwide public opinion would be diverted from his policy of treating his own innocent Arab civilians as cockroaches to be exterminated. Nasrallah's speeches and threats are nothing more than a cover for its unwillingness or inability to do as al-Assad wishes. Al-Arabiya
Despite assurances from grinning European politicians, there remains a significant doubt that Greece will succeed in completing the "voluntary" bond swap that will cause private investors to lose 75% of their investments. The deadline is Thursday, and officials are out trying to convince private investors to buy in, but the bond swap has gotten off to a slow start, with even Greek investors showing reluctance to sign up quickly. Officials have said that they expect 90% buy-in, but that goal seems a long way off. Greece must get 75% of holders to participate to avoid forcing the deal on holdouts through so-called “collective action clauses” (CACs) which were inserted retroactively into Greek bonds by the government last week. If less than 66% participate, even the CACs would become invalid, scuppering the entire deal. In that case, a disorderly Greek bankruptcy becomes a possibility, unless the Germans simply agree to a full bailout anyway. Invoking the CACs would trigger credit default swap (CDS) insurance policies, and it is unknown who the insurers are and how much they would have to pay. Financial Times
The 12 members of the steering committee representing banks, asset managers, hedge funds and insurers during the negotiations with Greece are said to intend to participate in the bond swap voluntarily. The committee members are: Allianz, Alpha Bank, AXA, BNP Paribas, CNP Assurances, Commerzbank, Deutsche Bank, Eurobank, Greylock Capital Management, ING Bank, Intesa Sanpaolo and the National Bank of Greece. According to the bizarre statement:
"Neither the steering committee nor any of its members makes any recommendation or offers any advice to any other holder of PSI [private sector investor] eligible debt. Each such holder must make their own decision whether or not to participate in those offers based on their own particular interests and on the advice and assistance of their own advisers."
It's thought they hold about 90 billion euros in Greek bonds, or about 43% of the holdings eligible to participate in the bond swap. European officials say that they hope to achieve 90% participation. It's very hard for me to understand why any hedge fund manager, especially one who's purchased CDS protection, should ever voluntarily agree to the bond swap, especially since the "punishment" for not agreeing is to be forced to agree anyway. Kathimerini
The Dalai Lama's November visit to Mongolia has generated a harsh negative reaction from China, who see it as part of the Dalai Lama's campaign for Tibetan independence. After declaring independence from China in 1924, the People's Republic of Mongolia remained embroiled in rivalries between Russia and China, and so maintained its communist identity, giving up its Buddhist identity for secularism. Thus, Javzandamba Hutagt, the 9th Bogd (spiritual leader of Mongolian Buddhists), born in Tibet in 1932, was barred from traveling to Mongolia until the end of Mongolia's communist era in 1990, as the Soviet Union collapsed. Since then, Mongolia has been increasingly turning from secularism back to its Buddhist roots, and the Dalai Lama has played an active part, much to the consternation of the Chinese. In particular, the Dalai Lama hopes to defeat China's attempt to name his successor, by declaring that the next Dalai Lama will be born on Mongolian soil. Jamestown
Cyber warfare is usually thought of as defending against cyber attacks from other countries, especially China. But now the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) will increasingly fund research on offensive cyber capabilities. A provision of the fiscal 2012 national defense authorization act says the military may conduct offensive cyberspace operations subject to the same principles the Defense Department uses for kinetic operations, including the law of armed conflict, and the War Powers Resolution. Fierce Government IT
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 6-Mar-12 World View -- Dalai Lama visit emphasizes Mongolia's return to Buddhism from secularism
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(6-Mar-2012)
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Obama Justice Dept. still refuses to prosecute banksters for fraud
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Apparently playing to a domestic audience, Kim Jong-un, the new child-dictator of North Korea, visited the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating North and South Korea, ordering troops to be on high alert. Meanwhile, North Korea's military chief Ri Yong-Ho led a huge anti-South Korea rally in Pyongyang, where he repeated last week's threat of a "sacred war" against the South: "We again declare to the world that we will launch indiscriminate and sacred war to wipe out the enemy traitors!" The traitors he was referring to are South Korean officials, whom he called "mad dogs" and "psychos". AFP
China announced a new 11.2% increasing in military spending this year. Military spending has more than doubled since 2006. China blames the rise on "a neighborhood where it doesn't have any natural allies or friends." China has been making claims that large regions in the South China Sea are sovereign property of China, even though many of these regions have historically belonged to other countries, including Vietnam and the Philippines. So the unfriendly neighbors are the ones that China's sovereignty claims over these islands. Bloomberg
The bipartisan Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, headed by Phil Angelides, held hearings throughout 2010, and issued a report in January, 2011, identifying specific cases of apparent illegal activities by banksters. I described some of that evidence in my April, 2010, article "Financial Crisis Inquiry hearings provide 'smoking gun' evidence of widespread criminal fraud." And yet, the Justice Department, headed by Gen-Xer Attorney General Eric Holder, working for Gen-Xer President Barack Obama, absolutely and steadfastly refused to investigate the banksters' activities. In a New York Times op-ed three days ago, Phil Angelides wrote:
"One example: The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s report contains evidence about Clayton Holdings, a company hired by more than 20 major financial institutions to perform “due diligence” on mortgage loans those companies were buying, bundling and selling. Clayton sampled 2 to 3 percent of those mortgages and found a significant number of defective loans. Yet the other 97 percent were not sampled, and that fact and the information about loan defects were never disclosed to investors — “raising the question,” the report noted, “of whether the disclosures were materially misleading, in violation of securities laws.”In numerous court cases, plaintiffs, including the Federal Housing Finance Agency, have cited this evidence to support their claims of fraud and misrepresentation. But, inexplicably, there is no indication that the Justice Department promptly convened a high-level investigation to thoroughly examine who knew what when at these banks. In contrast, after the savings-and-loan debacle of the late 1980s, more than 1,000 bank and thrift executives were convicted of felonies. But today the rate of federal prosecutions for financial fraud is less than half of what it was then."
Angelides calls this "inexplicable," but it can be explained both politically and generationally. Politicians receive enormous sums of money from banksters, and they'd rather pocket the illegal gotten money rather than prosecute the perpetrators. And more importantly, Gen-Xer prosecutors refuse to investigate and prosecute other Gen-Xers for committing crimes. The reason that the Gen-X culture is dangerous and toxic is not because Gen-Xers are more dishonest than Boomers or Silents, but because the few Gen-Xers who commit crimes can do so freely with almost no fear of prosecution. As I described in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust," this is the same kind of generational behavior that occurred in Nazi Germany, when ordinary Germans refused to oppose Hitler's plans to exterminate the Jews. The result today is the financial crisis, which has barely begun. NY Times
Vladimir Putin scored a decisive victory, with over 60% of the vote, in Russia's presidential election Sunday to return to the Kremlin for six more years. However, there were widespread accounts of vote-rigging. According to one election observer, "There was ballot box stuffing. There were all sorts of manipulation of the election commissions at the local level." There were accounts of extensive vote-rigging in last December's parliamentary elections, giving rise unprecedented protests and an opposition movement that is now expected to continue. CBS/AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 5-Mar-12 World View -- China announces new military spending surge, blames it on neighbors
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-Mar-2012)
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Widespread rental discrimination against Saudis in Saudi Arabia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Opinion polls show that Vladimir Putin is likely to win more than 50% of the vote in presidential elections Sunday, returning him to the presidency of Russia without even requiring a runoff election. Putin was president for two terms, from 2002-2008, but was barred from running for a third consecutive term by the Russian constitution. So he arranged for Dmitry Medvedev to become president, while he became prime minister. Now the game is about to come full circle, as Putin becomes president again. However, it's widely believed among the Russian people that Putin's party won the December parliamentary elections through massive election fraud, and it's widely expected that Sunday's vote will be fraudulent again. CNN
Middle East expert Fouad Ajami of the Hoover Institution says that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad may be declaring victory. He's defied the outside world by continuing to exterminate his own people, with nobody able to stop him. By now, the Syrian people must know that nobody is coming to their rescue. According to Ajami:
"I think you have to give credit where credit is due to the killer in Damascus. Unlike Gaddafi, who was insane, and who said things in a brazen way, the man in Damascus kills, but he also has a referendum, so he still is faking out the international community. He is less newsworthy, if you will, than Muammar Gaddafi. Muammar Gaddafi's insanity made him better copy. Muammar Gaddafi minced no words and said he was coming to kill the people in Benghazi, while Bashar says, as he kills them in Bab al Amr, he's offering a referendum."
Shelling of residential neighborhoods in Homs continued on Saturday. VOA
Saudi Arabia's National Society for Human Rights (NSHR) has found massive discrimination by building owners in discriminating against Saudis when renting out apartments. Complaints have been received from people in numerous cities throughout the Kingdom. Saudi Arabia has a large population of migrant workers, and building landlords have found that foreigner tenants are more prompt in paying rent and take better care of the properties. As a result, building owners are going to great lengths to avoiding renting to Saudis, even going so far as to design apartments in such a way that did not suit Saudi family customs, with small rooms and scant consideration for women’s seclusion. Arab News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 4-Mar-12 World View -- Syria's al-Assad continues to defy the outside world
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-Mar-2012)
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EU warns Greece of 'Plan B' if private investors refuse to cooperate
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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On a campaign stop in Bayonne in France on Tuesday, president Nicolas Sarkozy had to take refuge in the Bar du Palais for an hour, to escape hundreds of Basque separatists who were booing and jeering him, and throwing insults and eggs. ETA, a separatist movement which called an end to its armed struggle last year, is blamed for 829 deaths during a four-decade campaign of shootings and bombings for an independent Basque homeland. AFP
A Gaza-based jihadist group, the Ma'sadat al-Mujahideen, is claiming credit for igniting a series of devastating forest fires near Reno, Nevada, on January 19. According to the group's statement, they wish to widen "the area of war" to include regions inside America and elsewhere, and they will continue these activities until "the liberation of Palestine" is achieved. Jamestown
At least 10,000 people have fled northern Nigeria for neighboring Niger and Chad to escape a military sweep targeting the terrorist group Boko Haram, which has perpetrated a series of bombings and other attacks that have killed dozens of people. Reuters
Greece is currently negotiating with private investors to convince them, before March 9, to "voluntarily" accept a 75% haircut on their investments by swapping their old Greek bonds for shiny new guaranteed bonds. European and Greek officials have been smiling broadly, saying that participation by private investors is very high, but without providing any numbers. But Jean-Claude Juncker, the chairman of the eurozone finance ministers, confirmed the existence of a back-up plan if the debt swap falls flat. "I don’t need to talk to everyone about plan B if we officially say that we want plan A to work," he said. Irish Times
U.S. pro-democracy activists flew out of Egypt on Thursday after the authorities lifted a travel ban. The activists included Sam LaHood, the son of U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, had been charged with working for groups receiving illegal foreign funding. The six American activists were released after the U.S. government paid their bail, which was set at about $330,000 each. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 3-Mar-12 World View -- Egypt releases American activists after U.S. pays bail
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Mar-2012)
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Greece's debt default is still not a 'credit event'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The Eurogroup (eurozone finance ministers) met on Thursday and agreed that Greece had met most of the demands set by for the new €130 billion bailout, but they only approved a small part of the bailout, just enough to implement the so-called private sector involvement (PSI) scheme, where private bondholders would "voluntarily" take a 75% loss. The Europeans are currently chasing after private investors, trying to convince them to take the voluntary program. If enough of them do by March 9, then the rest of the bailout will be approved. Kathimerini
Private investors are being asked to take a "voluntary" 75% loss of their investments in Greek debt, and yet the International Swaps & Derivatives Association (IDSA) ruled on Thursday that this is not a "credit event" that would trigger the paying insurance money benefits to investors who had thought they were protecting themselves by purchasing insurance policies in the form of credit default swaps (CDSs). "The situation in the Hellenic Republic is still evolving," said the IDSA statement, adding that they may change their minds, if any investors were forced to take the 75% haircut through the use of Greek "collective action clauses." I would think that an investor would have to be crazy to spend money on a CDS, after this ruling. Bloomberg
Russia and China joined other U.N. Security Council members in expressing "deep disappointment" in "the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation" in Syria. Syria and Russia have previous vetoed any U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning their ally, president Bashar al-Assad. This new statement is so weak that it doesn't really represent a change of position by the Russians and Chinese. Al-Arabiya
Iran's parliamentary elections, to be held on Friday, are an extension of the increasingly bitter political battle between Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Ahmadinejad has struck back through an aggressive appeal to poor and working-class voters, especially in the provinces, hard hit by a severe economic downturn. The parliamentary election is not expected to change any of Iran's international policies, but it may indicate a shift that will affect next year's presidential election. LA Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 2-Mar-12 World View -- In Iran's elections Friday, it's Ahmadinejad versus the Supreme Leader
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Mar-2012)
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Syrian regime begins ground invasion of civilian neighborhoods in Homs
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
Lots of big news stories today.
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After four weeks of continuous shelling of residential neighborhoods of the Baba Amr region of Homs in Syria, elite troops of the regime of president Bashar al-Assad are advancing, and a Syrian official has vowed that the region would be "cleansed," raising fears that the expected ground invasion is about to begin, with the objective of completely exterminate all of the people in the region. The U.S. State Department took the very powerful and decisive step on Wednesday of summoning Syria's envoy in Washington "to express our outrage over the month-long campaign of brutality and indiscriminate shelling of the city of Homs." Daily Star (Lebanon)
We've seen this plot several times before: The North Koreans are promising to U.S. officials that they will suspend uranium and nuclear and long-range missile tests, in return for food aid from the U.S. In the past, the promises turned out to be frauds that were not honored. A new agreement was announced on Wednesday. This time it's different, we're supposed to believe, because:
However, IAEA inspectors haven't been much help with the situation in Iran, and Kim Jong-un's youth may make it less likely that he can guarantee that the agreement will be honored.
According to a South Korean analyst:
"North Korea uses (the nuclear program) as leverage to win concessions in return for disarmament measures. Since Kim Jong Il’s death, it has called (the program) the country’s most important achievement. There is still a long way to go."
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton suggested that one reason for reaching agreement with the North Koreans was concern over a major famine. She indicated that the food aid would be intensively monitored, so that it wouldn't be diverted to the military. AP
A travel ban was lifted for 7 of the 16 Americans, employees of non-profit pro-democracy groups, charged with illegal political activities and operating without licenses. The trial has been somewhat chaotic, probably because, on the one hand, the charges are ludicrous and, on the other hand, there are protests by Egyptians demanding that the Americans be punished. The trial opened on Sunday, but was immediately postponed two months to April 26. And on Tuesday, the three judges trying the case recused themselves, citing "uneasiness" with the charges. The 7 Americans, who included Sam LaHood, the son of US Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, had to post bail set at 2 million Egyptian pounds (about $300,000) and had to sign pledges to attend the next hearing. AP
Last year, India teamed up with Brazil and South Africa to send a diplomatic mission to convince the Bashar al-Assad regime to stop the violence in Syria. Now, six months later, under pressure from the West as well as from Jordanians and Palestinians, India has reversed its position, and will now align itself with the Arab countries demanding that Assad step down. Times of India
Hamas, the organization ruling Gaza, has for months been quietly moving its headquarters office out of Damascus, where it's been located for years. Finally, on Friday, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh made the break official: "I salute all the nations of the Arab Spring and I salute the heroic people of Syria who are striving for freedom, democracy, and reform." The announcement was made before a crowd of thousands at Cairo's al-Azhar mosque, where the audience responded by chanting, "No Hezbollah and no Iran. The Syrian revolution is an Arab revolution." This is adding to the growing sectarian realignment of the entire Mideast, with Hamas and the Sunni world united against the al-Assad regime, backed by Shia Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), Iraq and Iran. CNN
According to a Wikileaks release, in 2008 Russia and Israel exchanged secret codes belonging to Iran and Georgia, respectively. Israel provided the Russian military with the secret codes for the drones that Israel had sold to Georgia, allowing the Russians to hack into them. In exchange, Russia gave the codes for the Tor-M1 missile complexes that Russia had sold to Iran. The information comes from a leaked e-mail message, and is unconfirmed. This is one of some five million e-mail messages in the servers of Stratfor, or Strategic Forecasting Inc., a Texas-based intelligence company founded in 1996 and attested by media as the "shadow CIA." The company’s website was hacked in 2011 by a group of politicized hackers known as the Anonymous, and the e-mail messages are now being released by Wikileaks. Ria Novosti/Reuters
Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti declared that the worst of the euro crisis is over on Wednesday, now that the European Central Bank (ECB) has "printed" another €550 billion of new money and made it available to European banks at near-zero interest rates. This is the second such action, the first occurring in December, when almost €500 billion were made in the same way, through the ECB's Long-Term Repo Operations (LTRO) program. The LTRO has achieved a cosmetic result of allowing banks to purchase bonds issued by PIIGS countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain, keeping bond yields (interest rates) from spiking to astronomical levels, as they have in Greece. However, the money is just being shuffled around from one bank account to another, and almost none is being lent to people and businesses, meaning that beyond the cosmetic changes the LTRO program has done nothing but "kick the can down the road," and have no effect on the continuing deflationary spiral. This is about the tenth or fifteenth time since 2007 that politicians and central bankers have declared that the financial crisis was over, as they released a new "bazooka" of printed money, with each such bazooka being exponentially larger than the last one. Despite the claims of politicians, the world continues to be headed for the largest financial catastrophe in history. Washington Post
A federal court ruled that the graphic warning labels on tobacco products imposed by the federal government violate the First Amendment. The images included diseased lungs, a mouth filled with cancerous lesions, and a man exhaling cigarette through a tracheotomy hole in his throat. The judge said, "it is clear that the government's actual purpose is not to inform or educate, but rather to advocate a change in behavior -- specifically to encourage smoking cessation and to discourage potential new smokers from starting." He added that, "(T)he graphic images are neither factual nor accurate. For example, the image of the body on an autopsy table suggests that smoking leads to autopsies; but the government provides no support to show that autopsies are a common consequence of smoking." Legal Newsline
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 1-Mar-12 World View -- ECB: 'Euro crisis is over' after €1 trillion quantitative easing
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Mar-2012)
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