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Germany approves the expanded bailout fund
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Germany approves the expanded bailout fund
* 10 reasons why the EFSF is not the Holy Grail
* European financial inspectors audit Greece
* Syrian regime supporters attack American ambassador
* Terror plot thwarted in Framingham, Mass.
* Turkey's Erdogan sends Rosh Hashana greeting to Jews of Turkey
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel scored a major political victory on Thursday when the German parliament (Bundestag) voted overwhelmingly by 523 to 85 in favor of expanding the euro bailout fund. The vote approved expansion of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) from its current €250 billion ($338 billion) to €440 billion. Germany's share will rise from €120 billion to €211 billion. However, €440 billion still won't be nearly enough. Thus, there's talk of allowing the EFSF to "leverage" its assets, and allow it to borrow €2 trillion against the €440 billion. (Maybe they can keep doing that -- borrow €10 trillion against the €2 trillion, then €100 trillion against the €10 trillion, and keep doing that until the EFSF has enough money to bail out the entire world.) Spiegel
Summary: Investors in EFSF bonds won't know what they're getting in to, so they'll be screwed. The EFSF will spread the risk, but instead of making every country stronger, it will bring down the entire euro zone. Bond Vigilantes
Meanwhile, it's still not certain that Greece will receive the next tranche of its second bailout, which it needs by early October to avoid bankruptcy. Inspectors from the "troika" (European Commission, European Central Bank, International Monetary Fund) are visiting Athens this week to assess whether Greece is meeting the conditions required to qualify for the money. Kathimerini
Supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hurled rocks and tomatoes at U.S. ambassador Robert Ford's convoy as he visited an opposition figure in Damascus on Thursday. Ford and his party were not injuried, and the ambassador had to lock himself in an office to await help from Syrian security. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, "We condemn this unwarranted attack in the strongest possible terms. Ambassador (Robert) Ford and his aides were conducting normal embassy business and this attempt to intimidate our diplomats through violence is wholly unjustified." Reuters
I lived in Framingham until two years ago, so this story caught my eye. Rezwan Ferdaus, 26, had rented a storage warehouse in Framingham, in order to take delivery of 25 lbs. of C-4 explosives, six AK 47's, and grenades that he believed he had purchased from al-Qaeda members. The al-Qaeda representatives turned out to be FBI agents who arrested him. According to the FBI affadavit, he wanted to attack a subway system, "...cause that would be a huge scare. A huge attack. The point is you want to scare them so they know not to mess with you...All the kafir (non believers), in this land, are enemies and if you...they're all, they're all part of it. They have...have killed from us, our innocents, our men, and women, and children, they are all enemies..." NECN
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan offered his wishes to the Jews of his country on Thursday, extending his own Rosh Hashana greeting. "There have been a number of different beliefs and cultures living together for centuries in our country. Special days and holidays add special color to our community life." Erdogan didn't mention Israel, which he has recently targeted with several military threats. Jerusalem Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 30-Sep-11 World View -- Syrian regime supporters attack American ambassador
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Sep-2011)
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European Commission's Barroso proposes tax on financial transactions
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* European Commission's Barroso proposes tax on financial transactions
* Violence against Roma Gypsies grows in Czech Republic
* Gaddafi suspected to be under protection of Tuareg tribe
* Russia's Putin warns against overuse of foreign words
European Commission's Barroso proposes tax on financial transactions
As Europe's financial system continues to melt down, a desperate European Commission president José Manuel Barroso proposed to tax financial transactions, saying that "It is time for the financial sector to make a contribution back to society." He said that the tax would raise more than €55 billion per year. However, Britain is likely to be strongly opposed to such a tax, since four out every five financial transactions in the EU take place in the UK. Independent Violence against Roma Gypsies grows in Czech RepublicFor weeks there have been riots between Czech locals and newly settled Roma in northern Bohemia in the Czech Republic. What started as a series of brutal but isolated fights has grown into a popular movement in small towns along the eastern German border. Right-wing extremists led by the far-right Workers' Party for Social Justice (DSSS), have fanned the hatred. Despite a massive police presence the violence is growing. Some 300 neo-Nazis, most of them young men with bald heads and black jackets, marched alone recently through the small town of Nový Bor. The right-wing extremists chanted "Gypsies must go" and "Free, social and national." Spiegel
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Libya's former leader Muammar Gaddafi has always had close relations with the huge Tuareg tribe in Libya. (See "26-Sep-11 World View -- Libya's Gaddafi may be launching a counterattack with Tuareg tribe") Now the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) says that it has "reliable information that Gadhafi is protected by the Tuareg tribe located between Niger, Algeria and Ghadamis town in Libya." In the past, the NTC has made similar claims that have turned out to be wrong. CNN
Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin called on Russians on Wednesday not to overuse foreign words. "When we rename a tekhnikum a college, this speaks about our lack of self-confidence. We need time to realize that we are a great country, a great nation with a great culture, and we have a lot to be proud of." Ria Novosti
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 29-Sep-11 World View -- Gaddafi suspected to be under protection of Tuareg tribe
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Sep-2011)
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Israel's Netanyahu approves peace talks while new settlements are announced
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Germany expected to approve more bailouts on Thursday
* Greece's Papandreou promises to 'fight our way back to prosperity'
* Israel's Netanyahu approves peace talks while new settlements are announced
* Syria's regime fights the 'Free Syrian Army' of defectors
* Pakistan lauds China's birth as a brilliant miracle
* China strengthens relationships with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia
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The German parliament (Bundestag) will vote on Thursday whether to approve an increase of Europe's new bailout fund to €780 billion ($1.05 trillion), the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). The approval is expected to pass, but doing so may require opposition votes, since the center-right coalition of Chancellor Angela Merkel is threatening a bigger than expected rebellion against her. The reason for the threat is a proposal, put forth by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, allow the EFSF to "leverage" its assets by borrowing money, so that the bailout fund will be several times larger than the €780 billion. Just like you, Dear Reader, I'm shaking my head in awe at the ability for politicians today to find new ways to accumulate near infinite amounts of debt. The leverage proposal has even drawn public criticism from Andreas Vosskuhle, president of the German constitutional court, who publicly warned Merkel, "If anyone wants to go beyond these boundaries, which may be politically justified, then Germany needs a new constitution. For that to occur, there must be a referendum." Spiegel and Telegraph
At the invitation of Angela Merkel, Greece's prime minister George Papandreou gave a speech to the German Industry Alliance in Berlin on Tuesday. Papandreou is a very likaeble fellow, even if you can't believe a word he says, and the speech was quite interesting. Here are some excerpts (my transcription):
"We are determined, the Greek people are determined, to make this a great success.When people ask me, "Do you have the support?" my first answer is "That is not my problem." I have said, "I am here to work for my country, save my country, change the country. whether I am reelected or not is not my problem. My problem is to save the country. ...
I understand the political difficulties in our European family.
And one country wonders why it should support another for its past mistakes. Or why some country should take so much pain for a crisis that began with the banking system.
But as I have said, this is not an investment in past failures. This is an investment in future successes, our common success.
But now Europe must go one step further. We must prove to the markets that we have a firm grip on the debt crisis, and that we are determined to resolve it together. Because our common future depends on it.
Whenever I think of Europe's future, I also remember Europe's past. In the bloody and bitter aftermath of the second world war, Europe decided to make business, not war. This was not just an economic objective. It was above all a profoundly political objective, to build a Europe free of destructive nationalism, ethnic hatred and poverty.
Caught up in the current crisis, it's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. But let's try to get some historical perspective on our union, a union of nations with a history of violent conflicts, a union of nations whose borders have often been disputed, a union of nations with all kinds of political systems and competitive differences. ...
Instead of war and imperialism, today Europe exports peace, social and democratic principles. ...
The European Union has always been much more than a common market, even though we're not a United States of Europe. So if the sovereign debt crisis has strained European unity, here again we can make this crisis an opportunity -- deeper integration, deeper understanding, greater oversight and control.
For example, surely Greece, a small country with a GDP not much bigger than the German state of Essen, cannot be responsible for rattling the very foundations of the Union."
By playing the "World War II card," he's directly striking at the heart of anxiety for European elders: the fear that if the European Union continues to fall apart, then Europe will return to "destructive nationalism, ethnic hatred and poverty." Generational Dynamics predicts that this is in fact what will happen.
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Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was harshly criticized by political leaders in Europe and America, after Israel approved construction of 1,100 new settlement homes in the east Jerusalem neighborhood of Gilo. EU Foreign Affairs Chief Catherine Ashton urged Israel to "reverse" its decision, saying that "settlement activity" threatens the viability of a two-state solution. On the same day, Netanyahu announced the support of the Mideast Quartet's initiative for renewed peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. These two announcements would appear to be contradictory, since Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has committed to not having peace talks as long as settlements are being built in the West Bank. Jerusalem Post and Haaretz
Dozens of armored vehicles entered the central Syria town of Rastan early Tuesday, while army troops stormed hospital emergency rooms looking for wounded rebel soldiers. Dozens of people were reported taken from their homes. Syrian troops backed by tanks and helicopters have killed at least eight people in raids designed to crush army deserters, who have formed the "Free Syrian Army," consisting of thousands of defectors across the country. VOA
President Asif Ali Zardari was positively rapturous in his statements about China's National Day celebrations, commemorating the October 1, 1949, birth of the People's Republic of China. "The people of Pakistan join their Chinese brethren in celebrating that important turning point in world history, the formal proclamation by Chairman Mao of the founding of the People’s Republic." He said that never before in the annals of history had a people taken hold of their destiny so resolutely, marched forward with such distinction and accomplished such great feats. He said China's birth was also the birth of a miracle, a brilliant chapter in the story of human kind, a miracle continues to unfold to this day. The News (Pakistan)
Pakistan hosted China's top security official, Meng Jianzhu, and staged war games with Saudi Arabia on Monday, strengthening relations with the two nations, at a time when America's relationships with both nations are deteriorating sharply. Generational Dynamics predicts that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim countries will be allies of China in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Meng was visiting Pakistan to discuss Chinese Uighur militants who are living in northwest Pakistan alongside al-Qaida-linked extremists. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 28-Sep-11 World View -- Pakistan lauds China's birth as a brilliant miracle
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Sep-2011)
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U.N. Security Council considers Palestinian state application
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* European leaders float a fantasy bailout plan
* New home sales hit new bottom
* U.N. Security Council considers Palestinian state application
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As we reported yesterday, the four-day meeting of International Monetary Fund (IMF) accomplished nothing. But in an effort to help "restore confidence" to the markets, European leaders are leaking a humongous bailout plan, with two major components: (1) Greece will default, and bondholders will take a 50% "haircut"; (2) Eurozone countries will contribute another €2 trillion ($2.8 trillion) to EU bailout fund (the European Financial Stability Facility, or EFSF). This plan cannot be implemented unless all 17 euro countries agree to it. Globe and Mail
The Greeks oppose the plan because they refuse to agree to a default. Kathimerini
Britain will oppose the plan because it would cost every British household £5,000 ($7,900). Daily Mail
Germany is bitterly divided over any further bailout proposal, with Jens Weidmann, new president of the Bundesbank (Germany's central bank) opposed to even existing bailout programs. Spiegel
This year is shaping up to be the worst year on record for new home sales. New home sales in August were down 2.3% compared to July, despite the fact that prices fell a steep 9% in August. Analysts have been predicting a housing recovery "next quarter" every quarter for the last four years. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a housing recovery cannot be expected until the 2020s. LA Times
The United Nations Security Council met for one hour in closed session on Monday to take up the Palestinian application for full U.N. membership. They issued a statement that the question will be referred to the "standing committee on admissions" to the U.N. The committee will review the the application and decide whether Palestine meets the criteria for statehood, including having a defined territory and a recognized government. Under the U.N. Charter, a new member must also be "peace-loving." The committee will review the application for several weeks, and make a recommendation back to the Security Council. VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 27-Sep-11 World View -- European leaders float a fantasy bailout plan
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Sep-2011)
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IMF meeting fails to produce any results beyond words
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* U.S. public dissatisfaction with Washington continues to grow
* IMF meeting fails to produce any results beyond words
* Libya's Gaddafi may be launching a counterattack with Tuareg tribe
* Dalai Lama says he will spell out details of his reincarnation
* Unlike the Y2K problem, the Stuxnet problem is being ignored
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It was clear from the discussions on the Sunday morning news talk shows this morning that the American public is increasingly dissatisfied with the performance of the politicians in Washington on the economy. President Obama's former supporters are peeling away from him, Congressional Republicans are even more unpopular, and the Republican presidential candidate lineup appears to have melted down during last week's debates. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics none of this is surprising, because it's literally true that no solution exists to the economic problems in this generational Crisis era. Thus, each political faction can do nothing more than suggest a solution that has no chance of working, and the public understands that in their guts. The time is now ripe for the rise of a highly nationalistic candidate who will win by blaming our problems on the rest of the world, and then will lead the nation into a world war. (Hitler and Mussolini were two major 20th century examples.) Let's hope that America's institutions, including the Constitution itself, will be able to withstand such a populist revolt.
Since no solution exists to the economic problems in America and in Europe, the four-day meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), that ended Sunday in Washington, failed to produce any results beyond apocalyptic threats of impending financial disaster. U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner lectured the leaders on the need to act forcefully, saying that failure to do so carries the "threat of cascading default, bank runs and catastrophic risk." Even chiefs of the world's biggest banks (Chase, Goldman, Deutsche Bank, SocGen) differed on which government and private solutions are needed. The Europeans agreed on July 21 to bail out Greece (again), but that plan is faltering because it requires approval of all 17 euro zone nations. A proposal to borrow money on behalf of the EU and use the money in a bailout fund is being strongly opposed by the Germans. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said, "We won’t come to grips with economies deleveraging by having governments and central banks throwing -- literally -- even more money at the problem." A sense of anxiety and panic is growing. Bloomberg
Libya's Gaddafi may be launching a counterattack with Tuareg tribe
Although many people believe that the military action in Libya has ended, Muammar Gaddafi and his family have still not been found, and battles are still raging in pro-Gaddafi bastions in Bani Wadi and Sirte. Beyond that, there is a fear that Libya's new government may split up into warring factions. The rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) is made up of members from tribes in eastern Libya, and the tribes in western Libya, near Tripoli, are loudly complaining that they're not represented. Reuters The Tuareg are a tribe of over a million people stretching across five nations in northwest Africa, including 100,000 people in Libya. Many Tuareg were employed by Gaddafi's army, and so Libyans tend to identify all Tuareg as regime supporters. At least 1,500 Tuareg fighters joined Muammar Gaddafi’s loyalist forces (though some sources cite much larger figures) in the failed defense of his Libyan regime. But now there are unconfirmed reports that Gaddafi and his sons have raised a new army of 12,000 Tuareg soldiers, preparing to strike back at the NTC forces. Jamestown and Debka
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The 76 year old Dalai Lama said Saturday if he is to be reincarnated he will leave clear written instructions about the process, but that the matter is unlikely to come up until he's "about 90." He added, "Bear in mind that, apart from the reincarnation recognized through such legitimate methods, no recognition or acceptance should be given to a candidate chosen for political ends by anyone, including those in the People's Republic of China." He was referring to the stated intention of the Chinese government to be the ones to choose the next Dalai Lama. AP
Ralph Langner, the engineer who deciphered Stuxnet, the cyberwar virus that destroyed many centrifuges in Iran's nuclear facilities, says that Stuxnet could now easily be replicated by "any dumb hacker," and used to "to put the lights out" in a US city or "release a toxic gas cloud." And yet, in the year since its discovery, almost nothing has been done to protect computer systems from an attack. Even the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is ignoring it. It's interesting to contrast this to the Y2K problem of the 1990s. It was widely understood that computer systems would begin to fail on January 1, 2000, because dates had been stored with only 2-digit years (e.g., 3/29/87), and computers were not programmed to interpret these dates correctly after 2000. The last great achievement of the Silent Generation was to invest hundreds of billions of dollars worldwide to fix this problem, remediating almost every important software program in the world before 2000. Now, with the Silent generation gone, and with incompetent Boomers and Gen-Xers in charge, the Stuxnet problem, which is far more serious than the Y2K problem, is simply being ignored. CS Monitor
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 26-Sep-11 World View -- Libya's Gaddafi may be launching a counterattack with Tuareg tribe
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Sep-2011)
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Putin and Medvedev agree to switch jobs in Russia
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Iran's Ahmadinejad softens his stance on nuclear program
* Iran's Ahmadinejad takes revenge against supreme leader Khamenei
* Tensions growing between Iran and Azerbaijan
* Al-Qaeda's young generation takes over from depleted older leadership
* Putin and Medvedev agree to switch jobs in Russia
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Iran has called on the European Union to resume nuclear talks, following the unexpected announcement in July that Iran would allow full inspections of all nuclear sites by the U.N. International Atomic Energy Commission (IAEA). That offer was considered by many analysts (including this writer) as some kind of meaningless negotiating ploy to buy time. But Iran's Foreign Minister Ali-Akbar Salehi is suggesting that the desire to resolve the issue through talks is real. The offer reflects what appear to be mixed signals coming from Iran about a "swap deal" discussed last year, where Iran would stop its 20% nuclear enrichment process in exchange for obtaining the enriched material it needs from other countries. The mixed signals reflect a disagreement within Iran's government, with the hardliners wanting to continue the 20% nuclear enrichment program, and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad favoring the swap deal. Deutsche-Presse Agentur (DPA)
An analysis indicates that Iran's climb-down on the nuclear issue is dramatic and important, and is part of the struggle between President Ahmadinejad and supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and thus is part of a generational change in government. Ahmadinejad's actions are part of a general strategy of revenge, following his extreme humiliation earlier this year at the hands of Khamenei. (See "7-May-11 News -- Resignation of Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad may be imminent") This motive also explains, on September 3, Ahmadinejad's openly calling Iran's closest ally, the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, to end its crackdown on Syria's opposition. By cutting loose Syria, Ahmadinejad is crippling Khamenei's fantasy of gaining hegemony over the entire Arabian peninsula, a role that Turkey is now poised to take on. Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS)
As I've been writing for many years, Iran is basically a schizophrenic nation. Its top leadership, starting with the supreme leader, are survivors of the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, an extremely bloody civil war. Like generational crisis war survivors in any country, these leaders imposed austere rules and institutions designed to prevent another bloody civil war, and this has led them to adopt a harsh anti-Western attitude. But the generations born after the crisis war have no such motivation, and Iran's younger generations are, in fact, generally pro-Western and have no particular desire to see Israel pushed into the sea. As months go by, people in these younger generations are displacing the war survivors, moving Iran's policies closer to the West. Ahmadinejad himself is young enough to be pulled by both sides in this massive generational battle, and as the younger generations gain power, he's joining them. As I've written many times, my expectation is that Iran will be on the side of the West, including Israel, when forced to choose sides in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war.
Azerbaijan has strong relations with the United States and Israel. Concern is rising in Azerbaijan that, because Iran is increasingly feeling isolated and surrounded, it could potentially lash out at a neighbor that is perceived to be helping Tehran’s enemies. In particular, Iran is attempting to stoke separatist nationalism among Farsi-speaking and Shia communities in Azerbaijan, a country with big problems with minority rights, shortcomings in public services, and widespread official corruption. Eurasia Net (Paragraph corrected - 25-September)
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Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin announced on Saturday that he has accepted President Dmitry Medvedev's kind proposal for Putin to run for the presidency in 2012, while Medvedev runs for Prime Minister. Of course, this announcement had been expected. The surprise was that Medvedev asked Putin to take the job as President. In fact, Putin confirmed that they had made this agreement years earlier. "The fact that we have not been disclosing our position publicly for quite a time is a matter of political expediency and conforming to the political genus in our country – I hope our citizens understand that." Russia Today
Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri is dealing with a depleted organization that may no longer be able to conduct additional attacks. During the past five months, al-Qaeda has lost several prominent leaders, including its founder Osama bin Laden, as well as a core group who had acquired experience in combat operations and al-Qaeda’s secret activities. Al-Qaeda’s younger generation consists of young members who lack experience in the arts of combat and guerilla warfare. This observation can be deduced from the failure of al-Qaeda’s General Command in the Afghan-Pak border area to carry out any major operation in recent years. In contrast, al-Qaeda affiliates, notably the Yemen-based al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) are attempting to carry out attacks worldwide. Magharebia [[Magharebia, a news web site covering the Maghreb region (northern Africa), is sponsored by the United States Africa Command]]
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 25-Sep-11 World View -- Ahmadinejad takes revenge against Iran's supreme leader
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Sep-2011)
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Mullen's accusations send U.S.-Pakistan relations down unpredictable path
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Abbas asks U.N. to admit Palestine as a full member
* Abbas submits application to U.N. Security Council
* President Saleh makes surprise return to Yemen
* Mullen's accusations send U.S.-Pakistan relations down unpredictable path
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Speaking before the United Nations General Assembly, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas said:
"It is a moment of truth and my people are waiting to hear the answer of the world. Will it allow Israel to continue its occupation, the only occupation in the world? Will it allow Israel to remain a State above the law and accountability? Will it allow Israel to continue rejecting the resolutions of the Security Council and the General Assembly of the United Nations and the International Court of Justice and the positions of the overwhelming majority of countries in the world?I come before you today from the Holy Land, the land of Palestine, the land of divine messages, ascension of the Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) and the birthplace of Jesus Christ (peace be upon him), to speak on behalf of the Palestinian people in the homeland and in the the Diaspora, to say, after 63 years of suffering of the ongoing Nakba: Enough. Enough. Enough. ["Nakba" means "Catastrophe" - JX] It is time for the Palestinian people to gain their freedom and independence.
The time has come to end the suffering and the plight of millions of Palestine refugees in the homeland and the Diaspora, to end their displacement and to realize their rights, some of them forced to take refuge more than once in different places of the world.
At a time when the Arab peoples affirm their quest for democracy - the Arab Spring - the time is now for the Palestinian Spring, the time for independence."
Thousands of Palestinians crowded into an overflowing Clock Square in Ramallah. As Abbas began to speak the square fell almost entirely silent. But his pledge that "the people will continue their popular peaceful resistance" against occupation and "apartheid" was greeted with whistles, cheers and a rolling sea of flag waving. There were supporters on every visible rooftop waving the Palestinian flag and hundreds more dangling out of windows, craning to see the speech live on the big screens. IB Times and Guardian
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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas formally asked the U.N. Security Council Friday to recognize a Palestinian state. The Security Council is expected to take weeks, perhaps months, to act on the statehood application. In his U.N. address, shortly after the Abbas speech, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel will support Palestinian statehood, but only after a negotiated peace accord that guarantees Israel’s security. He said Israel left Gaza, uprooting settlements in 2005 to international applause, but was rewarded with a takeover of Gaza, and rocket attacks, by the militant Hamas. He said the core issue of the conflict is not settlements, but the Palestinians’ refusal to accept a Jewish state in any borders.
"Israel is prepared to have a Palestinian state in the West Bank, but we’re not prepared to have another Gaza there. And that’s why we need to have real security arrangements, which the Palestinians simply refuse to negotiate with us.Who’s there to stop us [from conducting negotiations]? What is there to stop us? If we genuinely want peace, what is there to stop us from meeting today and beginning peace negotiations?"
In the meantime, the United States and the other members of the Middle East Quartet - the European Union, Russia and the United Nations - offered a new proposal for direct talks Friday. VOA
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Yemen's president Ali Abdullah Saleh made a surprise return to the capital city Sanaa on Friday. He returned from Saudi Arabia, where he has been recuperating from a terrorist bomb attack in early June. "I return to the nation carrying the dove of peace and the olive branch," he said on state television. But the military battle continued between Saleh's security forces and defectors who are backing anti-Saleh protesters. The fear is that Saleh's return will ignite further violence and civil war. Reuters
U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen's testimony to the the Senate Armed Services committee on Thursday that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was directly supporting the Taliban-linked Haqqani network that was conducting terrorist attacks against Americans and American allies in Afghanistan, has substantially increased tensions between America and Pakistan. (See "23-Sep-11 World View -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan") According to U.S. officials, terrorists who attacked the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, last week, killing 34, left behind cell phones that showed that the terrorists were in contact with the ISI both before and during the attack. CBS News
Pakistan public opinion is sharply split over Mullen's accusations. The government is angrily denying the charges. Many people are expressing highly nationalistic demands that all contact with the U.S. be ended. However, many editorials are critical of the government. For example,
"A spate of reports has appeared of late in the western press, which, from the point of view of the Americans, would seem to buttress the case against Pakistan. Most allege that the Haqqanis are behind most of the attacks on US targets in Afghanistan. In the face of these clear signs from the US, Pakistan has been cautious, which is the correct posture. This however doesn’t stop the jingoists among the media and the retired bureaucratic community from advising Pakistan to stand up on its hind legs and pay the US back in kind. References are being made in Pakistan to America as an imperial hegemon which has been despoiling other states, starting with Vietnam and ending with Iraq and Afghanistan. This kind of rhetoric is misplaced because the question everyone has to answer next is: knowing all this, why did Pakistan become a strategic partner of the hegemon? Since this question can’t be answered — condemnation of past rulers of Pakistan will not do — let us focus on our internal weaknesses and approach the crisis realistically.Also, quite crucially, we need to realise that regardless of what the reality on the ground may be, whether the Haqqanis are acting independently or what have you, the fact of the matter is that what Pakistan says in its defence is no longer being believed in foreign capitals. It doesn’t matter if the Foreign Office comes out with statements, as it did on September 20, the point is that no one abroad is ready to believe much of what we are saying."
A common fear is that the U.S. will take whatever military action it wants, within Pakistan's borders:
"Statements from the likes of Interior Minister Rehman Malik denying these charges and nudging the Americans to “prove” their allegations are tantamount to giving them a reason to go on an all out offensive. No one is now ready to believe that Pakistan’s military-intelligence establishment has not played a double game with the US and, some would say, the Pakistani nation."
Express Tribune (Pakistan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 24-Sep-11 World View -- Abbas asks U.N. to admit Palestine as a full member
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(24-Sep-2011)
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World Bank warns of spreading financial crisis
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan
* Pakistan will not tolerate American 'boots on the ground'
* World Bank warns of spreading financial crisis
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U.S. Admiral Mike Mullen told the Senate Armed Services committee on Thursday that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was directly supporting the Taliban-linked Haqqani network that was conducting terrorist attacks against Americans and American allies in Afghanistan:
"The Haqqani Network ... acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence Agency.With ISI support, Haqqani operatives planned and conducted that truck bomb attack, as well as the assault on our embassy. We also have credible intelligence that they were behind the 28 June attack against the Inter-Continental Hotel in Kabul and a host of other smaller but effective operations.
In choosing to use violent extremism as an instrument of policy, the government of Pakistan - and most especially the Pakistani Army and ISI - jeopardises not only the prospect of our strategic partnership, but also Pakistan's opportunity to be a respected nation with legitimate regional influence.
They may believe that by using these proxies they are hedging their bets, or redressing what they feel is an imbalance of regional power. But in reality they have already lost that bet."
This unprecedented condemnation was the harshest public appraisal of Pakistan yet. BBC
Pakistan's Interior Minister Rehman Malik categorically rejected US allegations that ISI aids or has ties to the Taliban-allied Haqqani network, and said that Pakistan will not tolerate any incursion onto its territory by US forces targeting militant groups.
"The Pakistan nation will not allow the boots on our ground, never. Our government is already cooperating with the US…but they also must respect our sovereignty.If you say that it is ISI involved in that attack, I categorically deny it. We have no such policy to attack or aid attack through Pakistani forces or through any Pakistani assistance. ...
We are fighting a common enemy but unfortunately not with a common strategy. Instead of a blame game we have to sit together. We are not part of the terrorism, we are part of the solution. ...
For us, whether it’s the Haqqanis or Tehreek-e-Taliban, or LeJ, they are all terrorist outfits and we will leave no stone unturned to go against them. ...
Pakistan should be given some trust, and this trust deficit should go away, because we are fighting a war. There is not a day that is not 9/11 for my country."
Malik also complained that the Americans had so far not provided Pakistan with intelligence that would help it go after the Haqqani network. Dawn
The global economy is deteriorating rapidly, according to World Bank President Robert Zoellick. Budgets are deteriorating and government deficits are increasing in countries around the world. "If the situation deteriorates further, then developing countries' growth could turn down, their asset prices could drop and then their non-performing loans could increase," he said. "With these pressures and prospects we have to anticipate possible protectionist pressures, beggar-thy-neighbor policies and a risk of a retreat to Populism." Reuters
 |
I'm posting this chart again because it's still highly relevant, and it explains what's going on on Wall Street. Even if you don't understand the Law of Mean Reversion at all, you can still understand this chart. This shows that P/E ratios (also called "valuations") have been high, sometimes astronomically high, continuously since 1995. And you can see that valuations are on their way down to 1982 levels, which implies a stock market at the Dow 3000 level or lower. (Since August, 2010, the P/E ratio has fallen to about 15.)
Zoellick referred to protectionism and beggar-thy-neighbor policies. These could be components of a worldwide financial panic. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, a massive generational panic and crash is coming, for the first time since 1929. This must occur for the same reason that many times an alcoholic won't reform until he "hits bottom," losing his family, his home and his job. No one seriously believes that world political and financial executives have "reformed" since the crisis first began in 2007; in fact, the abuses are much worse today than they were then. It's impossible to predict exactly when this full-scale panic and financial crash will occur, but it's coming with mathematical certainty.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 23-Sep-11 World View -- Admiral Mullen accuses Pakistan of terrorism in Afghanistan
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(23-Sep-2011)
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Greece announces new austerity measures
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* President Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN
* Palestinians back off on statehood bid -- temporarily
* Israel uses 'The Scream' as Palestinians demonstrate
* ECB 'dissidents' meet secretly to oppose liquidity policies
* Greece announces new austerity measures
 |
President Barack Obama gave what some analysts are calling the "the warmest pro-Israel speech ever given at an annual UN General Assembly meeting by any U.S. president, bar none." An excerpt:
"Let us be honest with ourselves: Israel is surrounded by neighbors that have waged repeated wars against it. Israel’s citizens have been killed by rockets fired at their houses and suicide bombs on their buses. Israel’s children come of age knowing that throughout the region, other children are taught to hate them. Israel, a small country of less than eight million people, look out at a world where leaders of much larger nations threaten to wipe it off of the map. The Jewish people carry the burden of centuries of exile and persecution, and fresh memories of knowing that six million people were killed simply because of who they are. Those are facts. They cannot be denied."
Things like the settlements and the 1967 borders were not mentioned, though they were major elements of Obama's previous speeches on the Mideast. This speech represents a major change in Obama's policy in the Mideast. Haaretz and White House
I first wrote about Barack Obama in 2007, in "Barack Obama to Boomers: Drop dead!" In that article, I quoted Obama as expressing his contempt for Boomers. This was when Obama and the loony left were doing everything in their power to cause America to lose and be humiliated in Iraq. In the end, it was the loony left that was humiliated, after the success of President Bush's "surge" strategy.
People have criticized me for being "anti-Obama." I've never been "anti-Obama," but I've been extremely critical of the ridiculous promises that he made. He said in 2008, "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal." He would be guided by facts, not like President Bush, who was guided by ideology and ignored facts. He would cure global warming, close Guantanamo, become friendly with Iran and North Korea, bring a two-state solution to Palestinians and Israelis, beat the Taliban and al-Qaeda, end the financial crisis, reflate the real estate and stock market bubbles and, of course, provide universal health care. He has not achieved a single one of these objectives, and many of them are total failures. Wednesday's reversal on Mideast policy is just the latest example. People who criticized me for criticizing Obama's policies were dead wrong, and I was right. Race was never an issue for me, and ideology was never a major issue. For me, the major criticism of Obama was that he was too young, too inexperienced, a nihilistic Gen-Xer who believes that if he destroys the world and rebuilds it, then it will be "healed." He's grown a great deal in his job, though he still has a lot to learn.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, none of this is surprising. It's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a dictatorship, great events are determined by generations of people, not by the politicians. Obama may have different rhetorical skills than President Bush, but the policy results have been the same as if Bush had had a third term.
With enormous pressure being applied by the Americans, the Europeans, and even Hamas, to back off, Palestinian Authority (PA) officials have agreed not to rush the United Nations Security Council into reaching a decision on membership of a Palestinian state in the U.N. The Palestinians will give the UN Security Council "some time" to study their application for full membership in the United Nations. Like so many other political decisions these days, this one "kicks the can down the road" for a while, giving Western politicians time to find some formula that will derail the statehood bid entirely. Jerusalem Post
Clashes broke out between Palestinians and Israeli security forces in the West Bank on Wednesday amidst celebrations in support of the Palestinian Authority's UN statehood bid. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) in order to disperse several dozen Palestinians who were burning tires and throwing stones at security forces, used "The Scream," a non-lethal sonic weapon that emits a deafening sound people cannot stand. Jerusalem Post
Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank (Germany's central bank) organized a meeting of "dissident" members of the European Central Bank (ECB) to strategize how to force an end to the ECB's "quantitative easing" policies -- purchasing near-toxic bonds issued by Spain and Italy. The meeting was secret, but not denied. Others attending were the central bankers of Luxembourg and Netherlands. If this movement grows, it will pit the countries with strong economies against those with weak economies. Capital.gr (Athens)
After many days of failing to come up with new austerity measures to convince the "troika" (the European Commission, the ECB, and the IMF) that it's deserving of the next bailout tranche, before going bankrupt in mid-October, Greece announced a new plan after a seven hour cabinet meeting. "These choices send the message to our partners and the markets that Greece wants and is able to fulfill its obligations, always remaining in the central core of the euro and the European Union." Most of the details were not announced, but they include a reduction in pensions, and in increase in taxes. No public sector workers are going to be laid off right away, but some 30,000 of them will be placed in a "labor reserve" by the end of the year, meaning that they will earn a reduced salary for a limited period before the government has the right to sack them or re-employ them. However, all of these measures still have to be approved by the Parliament. Kathimerini
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 22-Sep-11 World View -- Obama delivers 'warmest pro-Israel speech ever' to UN
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(22-Sep-2011)
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Another day of disastrous financial news for Greece and Europe
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Another day of disastrous financial news for Greece and Europe
* Europeans fail again to agree on bailout for Greece
* S&P downgrades Italy's debt
* IMF chief says that the world economy is in a 'dangerous new phase'
* Slovakia threatens Europe's euro rescue package
* Another suicide bombing threatens Afghanistan's 'peace process'
* China's banks halt FX transactions with European banks
* Yemen violence escalates, raising fears of civil war
* Terrorist attack in Ankara, Turkey
 |
There's just one bad news story after another, as Europe's (and America's) financial meltdown appears to be accelerating.
According to a London contributor to the Generational Dynamics forum:
"Times are getting more and more interesting here in Europe. In fact, John has it right with the amount of real problems he is reporting, the only thing John is missing is the fear on the streets here. People are truly worried about the EU falling apart and the coming riots. Already shops on High Street which were doing very badly and are closing down in larger numbers now, jobs are even harder to find now and there are growing concerns about other Europeans coming into the UK to take jobs. My landlord said yesterday that in Ireland, mortgage rates are at 7-8%. Since the real estate collapse there in Ireland, values are down 50%."
Sooner or later, there will be full scale panic, and that time may be close.
Another telephone conference call, this one lasting two hours, between EU and Greek officials failed to produce an agreement on terms for Greece to receive the next tranche of its debt bailout, before it goes bankrupt in mid-October. Greece's finance minister Evangelos Venizelos said that he made "good process" in the talk. EU and IMF officials will return to Athens next week to seal the deal. Bloomberg
S&P's ratings service cut its rating on Italy's debt by one notch, and kept its outlook negative, a move that took markets by surprised. The rating agency warned of a deteriorating growth outlook and damaging political uncertainty. According to one analyst, "Coming at a time when the world's financial markets are on the edge, warily watching for a default by Greece with knock-on unknown effects on the financial system, the optics of this downgrade stink." Reuters
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that the world economy has entered a "dangerous new phase." She said, "Exactly three years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the economic skies look troubled and turbulent as global activity slows and downside risks increase." Bloomberg
According to the rules, all 17 euro countries must agree to a bailout before it will be allowed. Finland has already thrown a monkey wrench into the bailout of Greece by demanding "collateral" for their share. But perhaps even greater opposition will come from Slovakia, Europe's second poorest country, and a country that's already suffered painful, self-imposed economic reforms with any EU bailout. Now they're being asked to contribute €7.7 billion ($10.9 billion) to the euro rescue fund, and if the Parliament votes against it, then the entire rescue fund will collapse. Spiegel
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Former Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani, a leading figure in the Afghan "peace process," and head of the a government council trying to negotiate a political settlement with the Taliban insurgents, was killed on Tuesday by a suicide bomber, throwing the "peace process" into further disarray. Rabbani and 27 others were killed by a militant who detonated explosives hidden in his turban. As we've reported, there have been numerous recent terrorist attacks on Kabul, including a 20-hour assault against the U.S. Embassy and NATO headquarters in Kabul that finally ended Sept. 14. That attack killed 16 Afghans — five police officers and 11 civilians, more than half of them children. CBS/AP
Bank of China and other Chinese banks are halting foreign exchange transactions with European banks. This follows the lead of other Asian banks that have been cutting credit lines and exposures to European banks during the last few months. Reuters
Yemen's anti-regime demonstrations have been going on for eight months, but as we've been reporting, they suddenly took a far more violent turn on Sunday. Tuesday was the third day of increased violence, the worst since the demonstrations began. The conflict is morphing from one between the army and unarmed peaceful protesters into a military battle between forces loyal to the regime of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and army forces that have defected, led by defected General Mohsen al-Ahmar, who used to be Saleh's right hand man. There are hundreds of tents in the streets of central Sana, where thousands of protesters have been living for months, and protesters are being killed by stray shells from both sides. Estimated casualties are 50 deaths, 658 wounded, and 47 in critical condition. Yemen Post
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A bomb planted inside a car near government offices in Turkey's capital, Ankara, killed three and wounded 34. No one has claimed responsibility for the terrorist act, but it's known that the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) have been stepping up terrorist attacks in Turkey in the last couple of months. Hurriyet (Istanbul)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 21-Sep-11 World View -- Suicide bomb threatens Afghan 'peace process'
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(21-Sep-2011)
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Pressure increases on Abbas to skip UN statehood bid
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Pressure increases on Abbas to skip UN statehood bid
* Chaos in Europe as deadline for Greece draws near
* Greece may vote on whether to remain in euro zone
* Germany's Angela Merkel loses influence as her coalition melts down
* Germany's Pirate Party makes a surprise showing in Berlin elections
* Israel may become the principal defender of Cyprus
* Surge in violence in Yemen continues for a second day
 |
Diplomatic efforts are continuing around the clock to convince Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to abandon his plans to seek United Nations membership for a Palestinian state from the Security Council on Friday. Jerusalem Post
It was last year in October that I first reported that the Palestinians were considering turning to the United Nations to seek the creation of a Palestinian state by international mandate. At that time, it was just a throwaway suggestion, perhaps even a joke. But since then, the idea has taken hold and become extremely popular in the Palestine territories, and even in a number of other countries. I don't believe that Abbas could change his mind, even if he wanted to.
One reason why the United States is opposed to Abbas's bid is that it would force the U.S. delegation to veto it. The veto threat has created a widespread feeling in the Palestinian delegation that President Obama, rather than Israeli President Netanyahu, has become the bad guy. According to one delegate, "Were Martin Luther King to rise from the dead and see how a black president is waging an all-out war against the rights of the Palestinian people, he would choose to return to the grave." Haaretz
 |
EU negotiators failed to reach agreement with Greece on the next tranche of its loan bailout -- required by mid-October if Greece is to avoid bankruptcy. The so-called troika (European Central Bank (ECB), European Commission (EC) and International Monetary Fund (IMF)) are playing hardball, demanding that Greece take harsh new measures to reduce its debt. Austerity measures demanded by the troika include firing another 20,000 state workers, cutting or freezing state salaries and pensions, increasing heating oil tax, shutting down loss-making state organizations, cutting health spending and speeding up privatizations. In many cases, Greece has agreed to these measures in the past, but has failed to implement them, which is why the troika is being much more insistent now. A conference call involving the troika and Greek officials ended on Monday with no agreement, but the phone conference will resume on Tuesday. Reuters
With mounting pressure coming from all sides, Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou has submitted a bill to Parliament to call a referendum on whether Greece should remain in the euro zone. Pressure has mounted on the government from all sides with Greece’s foreign creditors pushing for quicker and more effective reforms, citizens reacting to the austerity cuts and even members of PASOK, Papandreou's own political party, objecting to plans to slash the public sector. Papandreou hopes that the outcome of such a vote would constitute a fresh mandate for his Socialist government to continue with an austerity drive. Kathimerini
One of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition partners suffered a meltdown in a Sunday election in Berlin, humiliating Merkel and leaving her coalition in a precarious position. A survey last week showed that Germans are unhappy with Merkel's handling of the euro crisis:
Merkel has been a strong supporter of bailing out Greece, but increasing popular opposition is forcing her government to back down. Her Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has become markedly tougher on Greece, saying that Greece will not receive the next tranche of bailout money unless it meets austerity requirements. "The Greeks must show figures that prove they are sticking to the plan. No one should be under any illusions." Spiegel
The big surprise in Sunday's Berlin elections was the Pirate Party, replacing the Greens as the title holder for young political rebels. Their platform calls for uncensored and free access to the internet, legalization of marijuana, and minimum guaranteed revenue for everyone. They won 8.9% of the vote, which means that they'll have seats in a regional government for the first time. Spiegel
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been using increasingly belligerent threats on a variety of subjects in recent weeks, as we've been reporting. One of those threats has been to use force to stop drilling for oil and gas in the eastern Mediterannean south of Cyprus, within Cyprus’s exclusive economic zone. The area is being monitored by Israeli drones while submarines are also expected to operate nearby. If necessary, Israel will send one or more Sa’ar 5-class corvettes. Cyprus has little to show in terms of naval power, while Greece is not expected to deploy any frigates. According to a Greek analysis, Turkey may make a show of force by dispatching gunboats to the area, but it's unlikely that Turkey will risk a military confrontation by interfering with the drilling. Kathimerini
The surge in violence that began in Yemen on Sunday continued on Monday, and spread from the center of the capital city Sanaa to the outskirts and to other cities. 27 people were killed on Monday in confrontations between government forces and defected soldiers and demonstrators. Washington Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 20-Sep-11 World View -- Chaos in Europe as deadline for Greece draws near
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(20-Sep-2011)
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Merkel's 'euro-skepticism' defeated in German election
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Greece's Papandreou cancels U.S. visit, but fails to take new austerity decisions
* Merkel's 'euro-skepticism' defeated in German election
* Pakistan seeks to improve relations with the U.S.
* Fears of Yemen civil war rise as violence suddenly increases
* Obama administration will not sell F-16s to Taiwan
* Taiwan says that China could defeat Taiwan in days, not weeks
* China warns of severe consequences from arms sale to Taiwan
 |
Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou had been scheduled to visit the United States and the United Nations this week, but canceled the meeting to chair a lengthy cabinet meeting on Sunday. On Monday, EU and IMF inspectors will be demanding to know what further austerity measures Greece will take, in order to qualify for the next tranche of its bailout at the end of this month. Unfortunately, the lengthy cabinet meeting did not yield any agreement. Papandreou's cancellation of his U.S. visit has given rise to additional rumors that a Greek default is imminent, but that has been denied by Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos. Kathimerini
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party was defeated in a Berlin state election and her coalition ally lost all its seats after turning skepticism over euro-area bailouts into a campaign theme, stoking government infighting over the debt crisis. The results in Berlin cap a year in which voters punished Merkel’s coalition over its handling of the debt crisis and adds to her pressure as she struggles to balance domestic fatigue over shouldering euro-region rescues with international calls that she do more to stem the contagion. That’s widening fissures in her government as the three-way coalition descends into open conflict over the euro’s future and financial aid for Greece. Bloomberg
U.S.-Pakistan relationships suffered another blow recently when American ambassador Cameron Munter accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency of having close ties with the Haqqani network of Afghan Taliban, who were blamed for a recent major terrorist attack in Kabul. Pakistan Sunday called for extensive dialogue with the United States to strengthen bilateral ties ahead of crucial meeting between their foreign ministers in New York. "There was no need for such remarks by Ambassador Munter," according to Pakistan Foreign Ministry sources. The sources said that Washington was trying to blame Pakistan to cover up its own failure in Afghanistan. They questioned the intentions and capability of the US-led multinational forces in securing Kabul even after decade-long presence in Afghanistan - the country the Americans had come to defend. The Nation (Pakistan)
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The "Arab Revolution" in Yemen has been simmering for months, with regular demonstrations in Sanaa, the capital city, with protesters demanding the removal of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. But the level of violence increased substantially on Sunday, as more than 100,000 protesters suddenly began to march toward the nearby presidential palace. Yemeni forces opened fire with anti-aircraft guns and automatic weapons. Snipers fired from rooftops, and plainclothes Saleh supporters armed with automatic rifles, swords and batons attacked the protesters. 26 protesters were killed. Saleh himself is still in Saudi Arabia recuperating from a terrorist bomb attack on June 3. AP
The Obama administration has decided to upgrade Taiwan’s existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets but not sell it the new planes it also wants. The decision represents a compromise aimed at improving Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, while not angering the Chinese more than necessary. AP
According to a Taiwanese analysis, the arms deal will not materially affect the the substantial military advantage that China has over Taiwan. (See "New Pentagon report outlines China's military buildup") The duration of any potential conflict between China and Taiwan will be a matter of days, not weeks or months. China continues its massive military buildup, while the U.S. is cutting back on arms sales to Taiwan. According to one analyst, "Coupled with limitations on US weapons sales, Taiwan is falling behind. Worse, the steady modernization of the PLA has not been matched by Taiwan." Taipei Times
China is warning of severe consequences if the arms package sale goes ahead. Zhou Tienong, vice-chairman of China's top legislature, said on Saturday that an arms sale to Taiwan will hurt not only Sino-US relations and cross-Straits ties but also the interests of the American people. Beijing broke off military ties in January last year in protest against a $6.4 billion US arms sale to Taiwan which included Patriot missiles, Black Hawk helicopters and equipment for Taiwan's existing F-16 fleet. China rejected a proposal for a visit by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates in June 2010. It was not until the end of 2010 that military-to-military exchanges resumed. China Daily
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
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(19-Sep-2011)
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Russia prepares justification for military intervention in former Soviet states
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Turkey's Erdogan receives rock-star treatment in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya
* Russia prepares justification for military intervention in former Soviet states
* Denmark moves left with first woman prime minister in its history
* Abbas infuriated by document from American peace envoys
* EU finance ministers again fail to agree on financial stability plans
 |
Ever since Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's rhetoric has turned sharply towards threatening Israel, his popularity in the Arab world has surged, and in the last few days he's received rock-star treatment during his visits to Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, three states that have overthrown their leaders in "Arab revolutions." Speaking to enthusiastic crowds in Libya on Friday, he said,
"I was in Tunisia yesterday; I greeted people who carried out the Jasmine Revolution. Two days before that, I was in Egypt and I greeted people who have initiated the Arab Spring. Today, I am with you. Those who repress their own people in Syria will not survive. The time of autocracies is over. Totalitarian regimes are disappearing. The rule of the people is coming. ...Do not give credit to those who have plans for Libya's resources. Libya belongs to Libyans and it should remain so. God bless all of you."
As we've been reporting, Turkey is on a collision course with Greece, Cyprus and Israel in the eastern Mediterranean, with a possible military confrontation over oil and gas exploration. Zaman
The Secretary-General of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), consisting of member states Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan from the old Soviet empire, is making statements that will justify future military interventions in member countries, in case of "Arab revolution" type upheavals and regime-succession crises. "Approval by the UN Security Council would not be necessary" for such interventions. The CSTO has mainly been emphasizing anti-terrorism activities in recent years, but the spate of Arab upheavals have opened the eyes of Russian officials to the possibility of analogous events in Central Asia and elsewhere in CSTO’s "area of responsibility." Jamestown
 |
After ten years of center-right political leadership, Denmark has swung to the other side of the political spectrum. Thursday's election gave center-left Social Democrat (SF) lead candidate Helle Thorning-Schmidt and her allies barely enough seats to form a coalition and become the first woman prime minister in Denmark's history. The Social Democrats promised to raise taxes for banks and the wealthy to help pay for better schools and hospitals. The new government has pledged to spend about 21 billion kroner ($3.9 billion) more a year on welfare than before. The opposition has warned that the policies will push Denmark deeply into debt. Spiegel and Bloomberg
A special document that U.S. peace envoys David Hale and Dennis Ross presented to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas on Thursday was "the last straw" for Abbas, convincing him once and for all to go to the United Nations and ask for membership for a Palestinian state. The document was supposed to dissuade Abbas from going to the U.N., but instead it infuriated him. The document referred to Israeli settlements in the West Bank as "demographic changes." According to a Palestinian official, this phrase would actually legalize the settlements, which the entire world, including the U.S., had so far considered as illegal. LA Times
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A two-day meeting of 17 euro country finance ministers in Poland has failed to accomplish anything. The group had approved a bailout for Greece on July 21, but Greece has been falling behind with agreed fiscal and structural reforms that have been set as a condition for continued support for Athens by international lenders. Talk of an imminent Greek default is widespread. However, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said, "The comments and analyses about an imminent default or bankruptcy are not only irresponsible but also ridiculous. Every weekend Greece ... is subject to this organized attack by speculators in international markets." Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 18-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey's Erdogan receives rock-star treatment in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya
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(18-Sep-2011)
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Child mortality falls, amount of cannon fodder grows
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Turkey on collision course with Greece, Israel in Mediterranean
* Israel and Greece ally against Turkey
* Turkey's real goal is control of east Mediterranean
* Child mortality falls, amount of cannon fodder grows
* Abbas will seek full U.N. membership for Palestinian state
* Syrian army forces stray into northern Lebanon
* China negotiates with its neighbors over the South China Sea
 |
Turkey warned Cyprus's Greek government against proceeding with offshore oil and gas drilling activities. The announcement came a day after Cyprus President Dimitris Christofias announced that U.S. firm Noble Energy will soon begin exploratory drilling to confirm deposits beneath the sea bed off Cyprus' southern coast despite Turkey's attempts to prevent such a move. Turkey's warning also coincides with expected deployment of Turkish warships in the east Mediterranean over Israel's refusal to apologize for the Turkish deaths in last years "freedom flotilla" to Gaza. The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has been divided since a 1974 war that split the island, with Turkish Cypriots occupying the northern 1/3 of the island, and Greek Cypriots occupying the southern 2/3. The Greeks and the Turks have been bitter enemies for centuries. AP
Israel and Greece have invoked a secret mutual defense pact they signed 12 days ago in the light of heavy Turkish sea and air movements in the eastern Mediterranean, threatening Israel's off-shore oil and gas rigs. Greece is particularly concerned by the observation flights suddenly increased in the past 48 hours over the Greek island of Kastelorizo in the southeast Mediterranean just two kilometers from the Turkish coast. Those flights are escorted by Turkish combat jets. Up until now, Israel could only respond to a Turkish threat from its own borders. With a presence at Greek military bases, Israel will be able to operate from the rear of Turkish forces in the event of an attack by those forces in the Mediterranean. Debka
According to a Russian analysis, Turkey is moving to revive the Ottoman Empire, in a direct threat to the interests of all the neighboring countries, including Russia. Turkey's threatening statements towards Israel are mainly to gain the support of the Arab audience, and are a smokescreen for Turkey's real intentions -- to gain control of the east Mediterranean. Turkey has adopted "a new naval strategy" with the name "Operation Barbarossa - Aegean shield, which implies that Turkish ships would be placed between Cyprus and Israel. This will allow Turkey to have equal influence on Israel, Cyprus and Greece. Anti-Israel rhetoric in this case is more like a camouflage to conceal the true intentions of the South-European direction. Pravda (Moscow)
Barbarossa Hayreddin Pasha (1478-1546) was an Ottoman admiral who dominated the Mediterranean for decades. He was born on the island of Lesbos/ Mytilini and died in Constantinople (Istanbul), the Ottoman capital. Hayreddin which literally means Goodness or best of the Religion of Islam was an honorary name given him by Sultan Suleiman the Magnificent. The name Barbarossa (Redbeard in Italian) he inherited from his elder brother "Baba Oruc" who died in battle with the Spanish in Algeria. (Debka)
Child mortality -- the number of children who die before age 5 -- used to be 50% just two centuries ago -- has been falling rapidly with modern medicine. By 1990, the rate was just under 1%, and in 2010 it had fallen again to 0.57% worldwide. The United Nations wants to see it reduced even further. The fall in child mortality will further reduce the amount of food per capita, pushing already historically high food prices higher, and will provide huge numbers of young people to be used as cannon fodder in the next war. Reuters
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas announced formally on Friday what Palestinian officials have been saying informally for several days -- that Abbas will ask the Security Council to approve full U.N. membership for a Palestinian state, rather than just "observer state" status. The United States has promised to veto such a request, and it's thought that Abbas plans to use the sympathy garnered from that veto to gain the "observer state" status vote in the General Assembly. Hamas opposes the plan to go to the U.N., saying that it would further split the Palestinians, and that a Palestinian state would force Palestinians outside Gaza and the West Bank to forfeit their "right of return." CNN
Syrian army troops, numbering about 15, entered Lebanon on Thursday in pursuit of fleeing Syrian dissidents. Syrian gunfire hit homes in Lebanon, and one person was injured. Over 3,500 Syrian dissidents have fled Syria into Lebanon. Most Syrians who have been displaced from their homes have entered Lebanon via official border crossings, since unofficial crossing points are reportedly heavily guarded by Syrian authorities. Daily Star (Lebanon)
Although China has been promoting peaceful bilateral relations with its neighbors over the control of the South China Sea, all sides are preparing for more hostilities. China stands by its claim that all the South China Sea islands, even though that belong to other countries, are the sovereign property of China. The Philippines recently hosted a U.S. congressional delegation to discuss how the U.S. can support Philippine defense needs. Vietnam is allying with India, and purchasing higher quality weapons. Although tensions may have temporarily cooled, all sides appear to be preparing for the next round. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 17-Sep-11 World View -- Turkey on collision course with Greece, Israel in Mediterranean
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Cameron and Sarkozy, in Libya, promise to keep on fighting
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* World View -- Fed bails out Europeans with dollars
* Cameron and Sarkozy, in Libya, promise to keep on fighting
* Fed bails out Europeans with dollars
* Israel prepares for West Bank violence on bid for Palestinian state
* Turkey's rise threatens Iran's dreams of regional hegemony
* Jordanians hold smaller than expected anti-Israeli protest
* American officials blame Pakistan for terrorist attack on Kabul
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Rebel forces are continuing to battle pockets of pro-Gaddafi forces in Libya, with Sirte, the birthplace of Muammar Gaddafi, being one of the last holdout cities. U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy became the first foreign leaders to visit Tripoli since Nato's humanitarian kinetic military activity in Libya began. According to Cameron,
"This is not finished, this is not done, this is not over; there are still parts of Libya under Gaddafi’s control. We will help you to find Gaddafi and bring him to justice."
Sarkozy added that airstrikes against pro-Gaddafi forces "will continue as long as Libyan leaders think Libyan people are in danger." Whether this means that the Nato action will morph into a kind of "nation-building" exercise, like the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan, remains to be seen. Bloomberg
The European Central Bank (ECB) can "print" as many euros as it wants, and it has been doing so to purchase near-toxic bonds from Italy and Spain. However, the ECB cannot print dollars, and for the last couple of weeks there's been a growing crisis that European banks don't want to lend dollars to one another, let alone to other entities. U.S. money market funds and other traditional dollar lenders have become increasingly nervous about the threat of a Greek debt default. The ECB itself has been lending dollars to European banks, but the ECB is running out of dollars. Bloomberg
In order to "kick the can down the road" yet one more time, and to provide three more months for the Europeans to find a way to keep Greece from defaulting, the Fed is setting up a "liquidity swap program" with four foreign central banks -- the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. The Fed sets up "swap lines" with the foreign banks, exchanging their currency for dollars, with an agreement that the foreign banks have to exchange back at a fixed date, after three months in this case. Thus, the Europeans now have enough dollars to last them until the end of the year. Reuters and Federal Reserve
Large demonstrations and possible violence in the West Bank are expected in conjunction with the Palestinians' request for United Nations recognition of an independent Palestinian state. In preparation, Israel has given approval for the Palestinian Authority (PA) to equip its security forces with riot-control gear, such as tear gas grenades and rubber bullets. In addition, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is reinforcing its West Bank forces, calling up a few reserve battalions. The battalions have trained to deal with possible scenarios, including violent marches toward settlements, IDF checkpoints and major roads serving the Israeli population. Haaretz
When the "Arab Awakening" began, Iran claimed credit for it as having been inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979, and hoped that it would lead to Iranian leadership among the Arab states. This was always a REALLY silly claim, but now Iran is facing a different reality. The Arab pro-democracy demonstrations are galvanizing Arabs around Turkey, leaving Iran out in the cold. This development is consistent with my oft-stated expectation that when forced to choose sides in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, Iran will side with the West, including Israel. Financial Times (Access)
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Activists had called for a "million-man march" against Israel, but only 300 or so demonstrators gathered at the Israeli embassy in Amman, Jordan, on Thursday. They demanded to end the 1994 Wadi Araba peace treaty with Israel, the second Arab peace deal signed with Israel, after the 1979 deal with Egypt. The demonstrators, a mix of leftist, liberal and Islamist opposition activists, instead gathered near a mosque close to the complex, shouting, "No Zionist embassy on Arab land." Al-Jazeera
U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta are blaming Pakistan for not preventing the Haqqani group from perpetrating several terrorist attacks in Kabul, Afghanistan. On September 13, militants dressed in burqas worn by many Afghan women ferried a carload of weapons and ammunition past checkpoints and set off suicide bombs, killing six Nato personnel. This came three weeks after the Taliban killed eight people in an assault on the British Council cultural center. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) service is known to have ties to the Haqqani network. Bloomberg
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Criticism mounts for Turkey's Erdogan for 'dangerous macho posturing'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* China demands a price for bailing out Europe
* Desperate Europeans seek 'euro bond' solution
* World Court to decide on WW II Nazi reparations
* Criticism mounts for Turkey's Erdogan for 'dangerous macho posturing'
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China's Vice Premier Li Keqiang addressed China-Europe People-to-People Dialogue on Friendship and Cooperation in Beijing on Wednesday, and indicated a willingness to help bail Europe out:
"We have confidence in Europe's economy and euro, and support some European countries' efforts to stabilize market, balance budgets and boost structural reform. China will further expand trade and investment with Europe, continue to regard Europe as one of China's main investment markets, and enhance cooperation with European countries in macroeconomic policy-making, international financial system reform, and global governance."
In return, however, China is demanding a high price -- a demand that the U.S. lift restrictions of high technology products to China, and European recognition of China as a "market economy." Xinhua and Spiegel
Moody's cut the credit ratings on Wednesday of two French banks, Societe Generale and Credit Agricole, because of their exposure to Greece's debt. Separately, European finance ministers have been warned that Europe is close to a renewed credit crunch and a "systemic" crisis in the euro zone. As Europe's banking system continues to deteriorate, some leaders are beginning to push hard for a "euro bond" solution. Under this scheme, all 17 eurozone countries would jointly issue and guarantee euro bonds, and individual countries would no longer issue national bonds. The result would be that the northern countries, such as Germany and Finland, would have to pay higher interest rates on their bonds. But the profligate southern countries, currently paying astronomical rates, would pay much lower rates. It seems highly doubtful that the Germans will go along with this, but even the Germans might agree to this out of desperation. Reuters
Some commentary:
"The latest dramatic development is the re-emergence of the banking crisis, which the authorities had hoped to quell through a sustained economic recovery and deliberately misleading stress tests. Both planks of that "strategy" have come unstuck. The rout on the French banking system highlights the need for an urgent recapitalisation -- an issue recently raised by Christine Lagarde, and angrily denied by the eurozone's complacent political leadership. The latest signs are that governments are about to allow the latest stage of the crisis to run out of control. The FT has a story that France continues to resist pressure to recapitalise the banking system, quoting a French official as saying the French equivalent of "crisis, what crisis?" The French banking system, he said, was well capitalised. The problem was Greece, not the French banks. Moody's will decide on Thursday whether or not to downgrade French banks."
Italian courts have awarded victims of Nazi war crimes monetary compensation from Germany, and have allowed the seizure of German property in Italy in payment. In 2008, Germany took the case to the United Nations International Court of Justice, claiming that Italian courts have violated German sovereignty by addressing civilian claims for Nazi war crimes. The case, which could have world wide consequences, will be heard this week. Spiegel
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become substantially more influential in the Arab world because of aggressive verbal attacks and military threats directed at Israel. However, outside of the Mideast, his statements are being criticized. European leaders are beginning to express alarm at his strident anti-Israel policy and his "macho posturing." Erdogan is risking a conflict with the West, and appears to have abandoned attempts to join the European Union. Erdogan is also receiving criticism in the Arab world for appearing to be abandoning the Syrian people, who are being massacred by the country's president Bashar al-Assad. Spiegel and Al-Sharq Al-Awsat (London)
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Abbas will apply for full U.N. membership for Palestinian state
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Turkey's Erdogan receives hero's welcome in Egypt
* Turkey escalates military threat with Israel in Mediterranean
* U.S. refuses Turkey's request for drones to fight PKK terrorists
* Turkey 'demands' Iran's help in fighting the PKK terrorists
* Iran's Ahmadinejad, on 'charm offensive', pardons U.S. hikers
* Abbas will apply for full U.N. membership for Palestinian state
* European leaders to support Greece after Obama's intervention
* Italy's bond auction results in high interest rates
* China has new food scandal: gutter cooking oil
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Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has started his Arab cooperation-building tour in Cairo, Egypt, after cutting ties with Israel, and has received a hero's welcome. Erdogan plans to continue his trip in Libya and Tunisia. Ahram
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems intent on speeding up history. The Turkish Navy is planning to dispatch three frigates to the Eastern Mediterranean to confront Israeli warships. The Turkish frigates, to be dispatched by the Navy's Southern Sea Area Command, will provide protection to civilian ships carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza. If the Turkish warships encounter an Israeli military ship outside Israel's 12-mile territorial waters, they will advance up to 100 meters close to the ship and disable its weapon system, in a confrontation that resembles dogfights in the Aegean Sea with Greek jet fighters. Zaman (Istanbul)
The Obama administration has turned down a Turkish request for the deployment of US Predator drones at Turkish bases until Ankara stops threatening Israel with armed attack. The drones are needed in Turkey's war against terrorists from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The PKK, aware of the dispute, have stepped up their raids in recent days on Turkish territory, killing nine people including army and police personnel. Debka
Attacks from Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists on Turkey have been rising since mid-July, and have killed dozens of security forces as well as civilians and pushed the government to adopt a new anti-terror strategy. Turkey has demanded human and technical intelligence from Iran on the PKK’s hideouts in the Kandil Mountains on the border between Iraq and Iran. Speculation is growing that Turkey is planning a major ground operation into northern Iraq to fight the PKK. Hurriyet (Ankara)
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Pursuing what many pundits are calling a "charm offensive," Iran's hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, gave an interview to Ann Curry on NBC's Today Show, saying that the detained U.S. hikers had to be punished. Next, he gave an interview to the Washington Post, where he said, "I am helping to arrange for their release in a couple of days so they will be able to return home." Later, the lawyer representing the hikers, said he had been told by court officials that each of them would have to pay $500,000 in bail. MSNBC and Washington Post and AP
Senior Palestinian officials have confirmed that they will apply to the United Nations Security Council for full membership in the United Nations for a Palestinian state based on pre-1967 borders. It's thought that going to the Security Council, where a United States veto is expected, will garner sympathy in the General Assembly for to admit a Palestinian state as an "Observer State," which would not require Security Council approval. Haaretz
After several days of frenzied speculation that Greece was about to default, a "radical shift" in policy has occurred, and European leaders, led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, are adopting a unified approach to prevent a default by Greece. The policy shift came about after President Barack Obama intervened, and pressed the EU leaders to show leadership. According to Merkel, "We must always keep in view that we do everything in a controlled way, that we know the consequences, because otherwise a situation could very quickly arise in the eurozone that none of us wants and that could have very, very difficult consequences for us all." Kathimerini
Italy's Treasury had to offre investors 5.6% interest to sell €6.5 billion ($8.89 billion) of bonds maturing in five year's time. This was substantially higher than its last comparable auction, in July, when it paid under 5% interest. Italy's bond yields have not yet reached the astronomically high levels for Greek bonds, but they're trending inexorably upward, just as they have for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The spread of Greece's "contagion" to Italy is a danger to the entire euro zone, since Italy is too big for a bailout. Wall Street Journal (Access)
China has had some major food scandals. (See "A generational view of China's growing melamine food disaster.") Now, police have arrested 32 suspects who allegedly produced cooking oil recycled from the waste and sold them to restaurants. More than 100 tonnes of the illegal cooking oil, made from leftovers dredged from gutters behind restaurants, were seized after police bust a criminal network spanning 14 provinces. China Daily
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After winning at 'Jeopardy!', IBM's Watson will become a doctor's assistant
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Investors bet that Greece's default is now certain
* Latest crisis blamed on resignation of Jürgen Stark from ECB
* Italy turns to China for help in debt crisis
* Many Palestinians are opposing statehood bid
* U.S. sends aid to Pakistan flood victims
* After winning at 'Jeopardy!', IBM's Watson will become a doctor's assistant
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The probability that Greece will default on its debt has now reached 98%. This is calculated by the prices of credit default swaps (CDSs), which are a kind of insurance policy that investors can purchase when they want to bet that a certain investment is going to default. The prices of CDSs on Portugal, Italy and France has surged to new records, indicating that investors are betting that the Greek "contagion" will spread to those countries. The cost of CDSs for corporate debt has risen to the highest levels in 2 1/2 years, the period following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is now debating how to support German banks when Greece defaults. Bloomberg
According to pundits, the reason that Wall Street stocks were sharply down on Monday morning was because of the threat of Greece's default. Then, stock prices recovered around 3 pm, and many pundits are crediting that to an announcement by Italy's government that they were talking to the Chinese, and were hoping for "significant" purchases of Italian bonds and investments in Italian companies. When I wrote my article on the 1932 book, "The bubble that broke the world," I suggested that just as America tried to bail out Germany in 1931, China might try to bail out America in the current crisis. Well, perhaps a variation of that suggestion is occurring, in that China may be trying to bail out Europe. Financial Times (Access).
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Many analysts are blaming the "sudden" loss of faith in Greece's bailout to a seemingly insignificant event -- the resignation on Friday of Jürgen Stark, Germany's representative at the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB has been purchasing bonds issued by Spain and Italy as Europe's form of quantitative easing, to prevent those two countries from going into default. Stark was strenuously opposed to the bond purchases, and resigned in protest. His resignation signaled a split within the ECB of the bond purchases, making it less likely that there will be more bond purchases in the future. CNN
In just over a week, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas will be presenting his proposal for Palestinian statehood to the United Nations General Assembly. Abbas has kept the text of the statehood bid top secret, in order to put the United States and Israel at a disadvantage. However, the secrecy is also worrying many Palestinians, who point out that if the U.N. endorses a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders, then the Palestinia diaspora will lose the "right of return" to their homes inside "historic Palestine," or present-day Israel. Another objection is that the state would merely consist of a series of isolated Palestinian cantons, or Bantustans. "Of course I hope for a state of our own, like Israel has," says one activist. "But ours will be Bethlehem here, Ramallah here, Nablus there, and the West Bank and Gaza still separated. How can they have one government?" Palestine News Network
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Last year's floods in Pakistan were the worst in the country's history, covering some 20% of the entire country, leaving millions of people homeless. This year's floods are not as bad, but the torrential rains have already left 200 dead and affected hundreds of thousands of people. The U.S. on Monday sent food and medical aid to Pakistan for flood victims. Food aid is targeted at nearly 350,000 Pakistanis, while Washington hopes the medical assistance can reach "about 500,000." AFP
As we described last February in "19-Feb-11 News -- IBM's Watson supercomputer bests human champions on Jeopardy!", the computer's spectacular victory brings us closer to the Singularity, the point in time, around 2030, when computers will be more intelligent and more creative than humans. Now, IBM has has signed a contract with health insurer WellPoint for a major, high-profile application of Watson. Watson will provide computerized guidance, and help suggest treatmen options and diagnoses, for doctors and nurses managing complex patient cases. Wall Street Journal (Access)
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Russia claimed fall of Gaddafi was a hoax in an al-Jazeera TV studio
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Egypt reacts to storming of Cairo's Israeli embassy
* Erdogan's Israel stance may determine Turkey's growing regional role
* World Bank: Palestinians headed for an 'acute fiscal crisis'
* Saadi al-Gaddafi flees to Niger from Libya in widening family split
* Russia claimed fall of Gaddafi was a hoax in an al-Jazeera TV studio
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Egypt's military police have arrested 92 more protesters on Sunday for the storming of the Israeli embassy in Cairo, bringing the total number of detainees to 130. Friday's attack on the embassy has caused a crisis in Egypt's post-revolution government, and threatens to reverse many of the political gains of the popular uprising. In particularly, emergency laws that were abolished after the uprising are being reinstated, at a time when crime is rising all around. The attack may also serve as an excuse to postpone the elections. Al Masry Al Youm (Cairo) and Reuters
In a Middle East transformed by war and revolution, Turkey is playing a growing role in issues such as the Palestinian campaign for statehood, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan is currently in Egypt, and plans to travel to Libya and Tunisia as well, to sign lucrative trade deals in all three post-revolution countries. Erdogan's success in becoming arguably the region's most prominent leader is related to Turkey's unique role of being part of both the Arab world and the European world. But his belligerent policies towards Israel may endanger Turkey's relationship with the West, as well has Erdogan's rise to power. Bloomberg
The Palestinian economy will grow by 7% this year, down from 9% in 2010, according to a new report by the World Bank, which predicts an "acute fiscal crisis," even as the Palestinians ask the United Nations to recognize a Palestinian state. Donations to the Palestinian Authority (PA) from other countries were expected to come to $967 million in 2011, but in the first half of the year, the PA only received $293 million. The budget crisis has already forced the authority to drastically increase its reliance on bank loans. In early July, it was also forced to cancel the payment of wages of public sector workers. Financial Times (Access)
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A split in the family of Libya's (former) leader Muammar al-Gaddafi was widened on Sunday, when one of his sons, Saadi al-Gaddafi fled to Niger. Saadi has previously contacted the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC) to negotiate a peace treaty, but his attempts were thwarted by Gaddafi and another son, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, both of whom have promised to fight to the last bullet. Some of al-Gaddafi's family, including his wife Safiya, sons Mihammed and Hanibal, daughter Ayesha and their siblings, have fled to Algeria. It is not known where Gaddafi himself is. Tripoli Post
The six month long civil war in Libya and the Nato air campaign to oust Muammar Gaddafi was causing political splits in Russia anyway, with public clashes between President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Medvedev blamed the crisis on "the crimes of the Libyan regime against its own people," and tacitly endorsed the Nato campaign, while Putin accused the US and NATO of hypocrisy, bombing and killing Libyan civilians under the pretext of protecting them. The fall of Gaddafi was a great shock in Moscow, and for several days, Russia's media actually claimed it was all a hoax by al-Jazeera, supported by actors playing parts in a tv studio replica of Tripoli. Jamestown
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Al-Qaeda linked terrorists threaten both Muslims and non-Muslims
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Many Americans believe that ordinary Muslims are out to kill Americans. Muslims return the favor by overwhelmingly believing that Muslims were NOT responsible for the 9/11 terror acts. This is one of the findings of a Pew Research Center report on relations between Muslims and Westerners.
"Muslim and Western publics continue to see relations between them as generally bad, with both sides holding negative stereotypes of the other. Many in the West see Muslims as fanatical and violent, while few say Muslims are tolerant or respectful of women. Meanwhile, Muslims in the Middle East and Asia generally see Westerners as selfish, immoral and greedy – as well as violent and fanatical."
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One finding of the Pew study that is seldom reported in the West is that both Westerners and Muslims are almost equally concerned about Islamist extremism.
For example, 77% of Israelis, 76% of Russians and 69% of Americans are concerned about Islamist extremism, but so are 78% of Palestinians, 73% of Lebanese, and 64% of Egyptians.
This isn't surprising when you consider the fact that al-Qaeda linked terrorist acts have killed far more ordinary Muslims than Westerners. This proves that Islamist terrorism is a threat to everyone, Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, when I report on Muslims, I distinguish between three groups. The largest group (probably 99.9%) are ordinary Muslims who are just trying to get through the day and feed and house their children, and aren't out to harm anyone. Even where anti-Americanism is high, which is certainly the case in Pakistan, it doesn't mean that ordinary Muslims wish harm to Americans; it does mean that they want Americans to go home, since they (incorrectly) blame Americans for the almost daily terrorist attacks in Pakistan. An analogous group in the West are what I've been calling for years the "loony left" in America, who are highly anti-American, but aren't terrorists. Many NY Times and MSNBC reporters and personalities appear to be in this category.
The second group, sometimes called "salafists," commit terrorist acts over local or regional issues. Many of these groups either want nothing to do with al-Qaeda, or simply have not established a connection with al-Qaeda, but they still have no objections to blowing up a local shopping center to make a national political point. Analogous non-Muslim groups in the West are IRA and ETA terrorists.
The third group, the "jihadists," are al-Qaeda linked terrorist groups. These include al-Qaeda itself (headquartered in Pakistan/Afghanistan), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP - Yemen), and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM - North Africa). These groups are actively seeking to bring terrorism to Europe and America, and are dangerous to everyone, Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
Interestingly enough, the Pew report only focuses on Sunni Muslims, pointedly omitting Iran, which has a largely pro-Western population, despite its hardline anti-Western leadership.
As I've said in the past, I expect the coming Clash of Civilizations world war to pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim nations against America, Russia, India and the West, and I expect Iran, when forced to choose, will side with Israel and the West.
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Egypt's government in crisis after storming of Israel's embassy
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Political crises in Turkey, Egypt and Israel
* Netanyahu pledges allegiance to treaty with Egypt
* Avigdor Lieberman threatens to aid Turkey's PKK terrorists
* Turkey's Erdogan forced to soften military threat to Israel
* Egypt's government in crisis after storming of Israel's embassy
* China: Chaos in North Korea over rise of Kim Jong-un
* Uyghur Unrest in Xinjiang shakes relations between China and Pakistan
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With Israel facing new crises with both Turkey and Egypt, prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is avoiding commenting on Turkey's implied threat of military clashes with Israel's navy. However, Netanyahu announced that Israel will continue to adhere to the peace treaty with Egypt, which serves the interest of both countries. This follows a dramatic 24-hours during which an Egyptian mob laid siege to Israel’s embassy in Cairo. Jerusalem Post
While Netanyahu avoided commenting on Turkey's threat, his far right Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman was not so reticent. Lieberman assembled a team to consider ways of retaliating against Turkey. One recommendation is to arm the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), a terrorist group in Turkey. Another suggestion would be to offer assistance to Armenians who have accused Turkey of genocide, and file UN reports. The Prime Minister's Office issued a statement saying, "Our policy was and remains to prevent a breakdown of relations with Turkey and easing the tensions between the countries. ... Israel has and is acting responsibly and hopes Turkey will act accordingly." Haaretz
Friday's escalated threat by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for Turkey's navy to accompany foreign flag aid ships to Gaza, risking a military clash with Israel's navy, has alarmed both internal and external observers. The threat has polarized Turkish politics, with Erdogan's opponents, led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu, demanding "justification," as we reported yesterday. Among Erdogan's supporters, some are implying that Kilicdaroglu is a traitor and lover of Israel. AP and Zaman
Nonetheless, Erdogan's office has released a statement saying that his threat of a military clash was a mistranslation of his actual words. According to the statement:
"We stressed the principle that we will ensure the safe movement of Gaza's aid vessel. The eastern Mediterranean Sea is not Israel's private playground. As long as it avoids intervening in the freedom of movement in the region, we won't send any warships to escort the vessels.It appeared as if we were offering to have warships escort every aid vessel. This is not true. Turkey will defend the rights of its citizens only when Israel chooses to intervene and prevent free movement in international waters."
Since Turkey already claims that Israel's blockade of Gaza "prevent[s] free movement in international waters," it's hard for me to read this new statement as a retraction. However, it does appear to be a softening, forced on Erdogan by political pressure. Ynet
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Egypt's security forces are on high alert, after three people were killed and 1,049 wounded in clashes that began on Friday and continued into Saturday, around the Israeli embassy in Cairo. Egypt's government held a crisis meeting in which prime minister Essam Sharaf offered to resign, an offer that the military council rejected. Egypt has announced that it will find and prosecute those responsible for the embassy violence, and will implement a state of emergency again. The repeal of emergency laws was a key demand of protesters in the uprising that toppled Hosni Mubarak in February. In a televised message Saturday, the information minister Osama Heikal said the government was committed to protecting all embassies in Egypt after three people were killed in overnight clashes, and authorities would apply "all articles of the emergency law to ensure safety". Reuters and The National (UAE)
With North Korea's president Kim Jong-il approaching his 70th birthday, and pushing his young son Kim Jong-un as his successor, Chinese scholars and politicians are expecting chaos when Kim finally steps down and lets his son take over. According to Professor Liu Ming of the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences:
"Without Kim Jong-il's rule, the personality cult will be phased out and some long-restrained opinion and behavior will gradually burst out, [and] the three-four years after Kim Jong-il] will be a very dangerous period" while Kim Jong-un and his family will regain power and order. [The son] "will try to reestablish the personality cult again, [even as] less and less people will continue to believe a mystified Kim Jong-un. "Many people, including the military, doubt the legitimacy of the hereditary succession for three generations and particularly the qualifications of Kim Jong-un."
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The number of terrorist incidents by Muslim Uyghurs in China's northwest Xinjiang province has been increasing, causing death, destruction and ethnic tension the cities of Kashgar and Hotan. The situation was further complicated when the government of the city of Kashgar published a statement online that claimed at least one of the perpetrators had been trained in Pakistan. The allegation by Chinese officials cast a shadow over Sino-Pakistani relations, a bilateral relationship that had been characterized in Kashgar just the month before by Pakistani Ambassador to China Masood Khan as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight." Sounds like true love to me. Jamestown
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Union longshoremen in Washington heed James Hoffa's call for violence
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Markets plunge on rumors of imminent Greece default
* Germany deliberates secret 'Plan B' in case Greece defaults
* Egyptian protesters break into Israeli embassy in Cairo
* Syria's protesters demand international protection
* Syria's Assad adds Turkey's Erdogan to his enemies list
* Syria's Assad orders full-scale war against protesters
* Turkey's Erdogan harshly escalates the military threats against Israel
* Union longshoremen in Washington heed James Hoffa's call for violence
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Greece’s Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos rushed to issue a statement denying the rumors that Greece would default on its debt over this weekend. The rumors began to appear early Friday, and spread virally around the world, causing markets to fall sharply in Europe and on Wall Street. "This is not the first organized wave of rumors about Greece ostensibly being about to default," Venizelos said, blaming "speculators against the euro and the eurozone in general." Prime Minister George Papandreou is giving a long-scheduled policy speech on Saturday, where he's expected to promise that Greece won't default. But he's not expected to announce any new austerity measures that are required for Greece to receive the next tranche of its bailout, which it will need to avoid default within the next month. Kathimerini
German Chancellor Angela Merkel has insisted that a default by Greece would be disastrous for the euro and for Europe, but her government is preparing "Plan B" to save Germany's banking system if a default occurs (which few people doubt is inevitable anyway). Germany banks are poised to face a 50% loss on their holdings of Greek bonds in case of a default, and the emergency plan would recapitalize the banks. Bloomberg
Police stood by and watched on Friday as dozens of Egyptian protesters tore down a security wall protecting the Israeli embassy in Cairo, and then broke into the embassy, and threw hundreds of documents out of the windows. For hours, Egyptian security forces made no attempt to intervene. Protests in general have been growing in recent week, as protesters becoming impatient that the "revolution" has not yet produced the hoped for results. AP
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As usual on Friday, there were massive pro-democracy protests in cities across Syria as worshippers pour out of mosques after midday prayers. This week's protests were dubbed "Friday for International Protection," as activists called on the United Nations to adopt a resolution to set up a permanent observer mission in Syria." Meanwhile, president Bashar al-Assad's forced continued to massacre peaceful civilians. Human Rights Watch said security forces "forcibly removed 18 wounded people" from a hospital in Homs on Wednesday, and also prevented medical personnel from reaching wounded people. Day Press (Syria)
Assad's forces are focusing on towns and villages near the border Turkey, believing that Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has set up a secret state of the art command center for protesters near the border with Turkey. Debka
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is canceling military leaves and massing its military forces for a massive full-scale assault on protesters. The new military operation is an escalation of violence on pro-democracy protests that began in March. The operation was implemented secretly, and is a "major military operation" requiring full mobilization of military forces in Syria for concentrated offensives on cities across the country in order to eliminate "terrorists who threaten us." Jerusalem Post
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Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has stepped up his belligerent rhetoric against Israel, saying Turkish warships will escort future aid boats leaving its territory for Gaza to prevent a repeat of last year’s deadly Israeli raid on an aid flotilla. Erdogan had previously announced it would increase navy patrols in the eastern Mediterranean, but this is the first time that he's said that his navy will use force to protect ships attempting to break Israel's naval blockade of Gaza. However, Turkey’s opposition also Erdogan’s comments on Friday. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party, said Turkey’s Red Crescent was already sending aid to Gaza without breaching the blockade. He called on Erdogan to "justify" in Parliament the threats to send warships to escort aid ships. AP
According to an analysis, the reason for Erdogan's increasingly belligerent military threats against Israel is to split Israel's small navy, and force an end to Israel's offshore oil and gas operations. Erdogan is rapidly becoming the most important leader in the region, because of his support for Arabs and his increasing enmity towards Israel, and a war with Israel could begin much sooner than many expect. Debka
Last week, Teamsters president James Hoffa called for war against the Tea Party and other political opponents of Labor organizations. "We are ready to march. Let’s take these sons of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong," said Hoffa. Hoffa's call for violence was apparently heard by hundreds of members of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union members (ILWU), who violently attacked guards protecting a non-union grain terminal in the Port of Longview in Washington state early Thursday morning. In addition to the attacks on guards, they cut the brake lines of train cars, and dumped grain on the ground. The labor dispute has spread to Seattle and Tacoma ports. KABC and Longview (WA) Daily News
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Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad criticizes slaughter in Syria
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Iran's Ahmadinejad criticizes slaughter in Syria
* Greece's GDP fell by 7.3% in Q2 - more than expected
* US investigates "specific, credible" terror threat for 9/11
* One, Two, Three ... Infinity - Revisited
* Generational split among Egypt's Bedouins in Sinai
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As the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad continues its massacre of innocent Syrian people, his principal ally appears to be increasingly critical of Assad. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaking to a Portuguese broadcaster, said that "there should be talks" between Assad and his opponents:
"A military solution is never the right solution. We believe that freedom and justice and respect for others are the rights of all nations. All governments have to recognise these rights. Problems have to be dealt with through dialogue.Other countries in the region can help the Syrian government and people to talk to each other with a view to resolving their differences and introducing the reforms that are needed."
Ahmadinejad's remark carefully avoid mentioning Iran's own massacre of innocent Iranian people two years ago. Al-Jazeera
Greece's economy seems to become measureably worse almost every day, making it less and less likely that Greece will qualify for the next tranche of its bailout money, due at the end of this month. Previous estimates were that Greece's GDP would fall by 6.9%, compared to the second quarter of 2010, but the Hellenic Statistical Authority reported on Thursday that the GDP actually fell by 7.3%. Capital.gr
U.S. officials announced on Thursday that they have discovered information about a threatened terror attack planned for Sunday, the tenth anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks. The treat is described as "specific and credible," but "unconfirmed," meaning that they'll be working quickly to either confirm or refute that threat. VOA
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The silliest thing in President Barack Obama's jobs speech on Thursday evening was his promise that his new litany of spending projects will be "paid for." Incredibly this is supposed to be done by a special super congressional committee. These kinds of compromises were possible in the 1980s, when the Silent generation was in charge. But today, with the Gen-X culture in charge, there is no chance whatsoever of this kind of compromise. All that will happen is that both sides will maneuver to blame the other side. Bloomberg
In 2008, I wrote the article, "One, Two, Three ... Infinity," in which I compared to the ever-increasing government spending plans to a book by George Gamow that I read in school in the 1950s. My use of that particular phrase was to convey the idea that American debt was on an exponential growth path that would not be stopped except by a major financial collapse and crisis. The point of that article is that each bailout would fail, and the next one would have to be larger, and would achieve a smaller effect. (This is the Law of Diminishing Returns.) As the above graph shows, that exponential growth path has continued since 2008, and it will continue until there is a crisis so huge, that total financial collapse occurs.
As the late economist Herb Stein said:
"Stein's Law: If something cannot go on forever, then it won't."
While the "Arab Revolution" that began on January 25 in Egypt has not seriously divided Egyptians, the exceptions have been the ethnic Bedouins in Sinai, near the border with Israel and Gaza. After the recent terror attack on southern Israel launched from Sinai, Egypt has been planning increase a military presence there, and to build housing for millions more citizens. However, Bedouin tribal chiefs have been losing their influence among the young, who no longer take them seriously, and young Bedouins have been protesting and blocking development plans. Al Masry Al Youm (Cairo)
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Germany's constitutional court approves bailouts
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Thousands of surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya warehouses
* Bombing of Delhi, India, courthouse kills 12
* Germany's constitutional court approves bailouts
* Switzerland's devaluation move could trigger currency war
* Azerbaijanis protest drying up of Iran's Lake Urmiyya
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Human Rights Watch has inspected weapons storage sites across Libya and discovered that vast amounts of weaponry have been looted. The weaponry includes tens of thousands of surface-to-air missiles, including Russia's sophisticated SA-24 missile that Iran has been trying to acquire. These missiles are a threat to both civilian and military aircraft. In addition, massive numbers of artillery rounds and tank rounds are missing. CS Monitor
Authorities in India are being harshly criticized for the lack of security that allowed two terrorist bombings of the same building in little over three months. Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami (HuJi), a Pakistani terrorist group, is claiming responsibility for the Wednesday bombing of the Delhi Courthouse that killed 12 people. A previous bombing of the same courthouse occurred on May 25, but apparently no action was taken to provide better security, except to hold a meeting every two weeks to discuss the problem. Indian Express and India Times
As expected Germany's Verfassungsgericht (constitutional court) ruled on Wednesday that Germany's contribution to the bailout fund that provided money to Greece, Ireland and Portugal did not violate the constitution. Furthermore, the court will not require that Germany's Bundestag (parliament) approve future bailouts. Instead, the court ruled that future bailouts would require the approval of the parliament's budget committee. The ruling gave a political boost to Chancellor Angela Merkel, who said that Germany must remain united with the rest of Europe. "The euro guarantees a unified Europe," she said. "If the euro collapses, Europe collapses." Deutsche-Welle
A court ruling striking down the bailouts would have triggered a national and international crisis. A BBC analyst that I heard on Wednesday said that most people now believe that the euro currency's days are numbered. Even though the German public is increasingly opposed to bailing out Greece and other "profligate" countries, German leaders want to be able to say that they did everything possible to save the euro, but that in the end the euro collapse because of Greece or some other country. (Incidentally, the same is true in Washington, as the Obama administration and the Republicans jockey to make sure that the other part gets the blame for what's coming.)
So far, during the crisis of the last few years, most of the world has avoided the tactics of the 1930s that caused a downward spiral, such as enacting high tariffs and devaluing currencies. Most analysts feel that Switzerland's act, <#stdurl reported yesterday, to prevent further strengthening of the Swiss Franc, was justified. But this is the first such act, and it's now possible that Japan and other countries will follow suit, triggering a currency war. Independent
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Ethnic Azerbaijanis in Iran have begun demanding urgent measures by Iran's government to save the Urmiyya Lake (the third largest salt lake in the world and a special UNESCO biological reserve), which has dried up by 70 percent as a result of the construction of dams, bridges and irrigation canals. Jamestown
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(8-Sep-2011)
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Switzerland takes the nuclear option to devalue the franc
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Turkey threatens military confrontation with Israel in Mediterranean
* Turkey's Erdogan may be backing off on threat to visit Gaza
* Postal Service announces $10 billion loss
* Germany's political turmoil threatens Greece's next bailout payment
* Switzerland takes the nuclear option to devalue the franc
* CDC discovers new cases of mutated swine flu
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Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Tuesday stepped up his retaliation for Israel's refusal to apologize for last year's "Freedom Flotilla" confrontation. Turkey has already expelled Israel’s ambassador and most diplomats. On Monday, Israeli passengers traveling through Istanbul were singled out for particularly harsh security measures. "Trade ties, military ties, regarding defense industry ties, we are completely suspending them. This process will be followed by different measures," said Erdogan. Turkey will also step up navy patrols in the eastern Mediterranean, and naval ships will accompany any future "Freedom Flotilla," to prevent what one official described as an Israeli "atrocity." Jerusalem Post
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan says that he will wait "until the last moment" to make a decision whether to visit the Gaza Strip during his official visit to Egypt on September 12-13. Egypt is reluctant to allow to cross into Gaza from Egypt because it would violate Egypt's agreements with Israel, and because it would put Erdogan's life in danger. Hurriyet (Ankara)
The Postal Service will lose $10 billion in the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, more than an earlier $9 billion loss estimate, as mail volume drops 2% from last year. Mail volume has dropped 22% since 2006. The Postal Service is asking Congress to allow it to break union contracts the prohibit firing workers, to loosen requirements to pay now for future retirees' health benefits, and to end mail delivery on Saturdays. The Postal Service is proposing curring 39% of its work force by 2015, and closing numerous post offices. Bloomberg
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing a rebellion within her own Christian Democrats party, after 25 MPs from her coalition voted against Merkel's position in a test vote. In an attempt to undercut the opposition, her finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has vowed to halt the next bailout tranche to Greece, unless the country complies totally with the austerity demands -- referring to the fact that the Greeks have already admitted that they're far from meeting their 2011 commitments. On Wednesday, Germany's constitutional court will rule on the constitutionality of the EU bailouts. Wall Street Journal (Access) and Telegraph
We've been reporting for several weeks that Switzerland has been losing its international competitiveness because the Swiss franc has been getting stronger and stronger. The franc has become a "safe haven" for investors who want to park their money somewhere safe, after they sell their stock market holdings. Before the 2008 credit crisis, one euro could buy you 1.65 Swiss francs, but in recent weeks, one euro could buy you little more than one franc. This has done a great deal of harm to Switzerland's tourist and export businesses. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has tried flooding the currency markets with hundreds of billions of Swiss francs, to try to deflate the currency, to little or no avail. On Tuesday, the SNB issued the following statement:
"Swiss National Bank sets minimum exchange rate at CHF [Swiss franc] 1.20 per euroThe current massive overvaluation of the Swiss franc poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries the risk of a deflationary development.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is therefore aiming for a substantial and sustained weakening of the Swiss franc. With immediate effect, it will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20. The SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities.
Even at a rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, the Swiss franc is still high and should continue to weaken over time. If the economic outlook and deflationary risks so require, the SNB will take further measures."
In other words, the SNB will "print" an unlimited number of francs and use them to purchase euros, in order to devalue the franc. This ought to be an interesting experiment. Bloomberg and Swiss National Bank (PDF)
New cases of swine flu with genes from the pandemic 2009 H1N1 swine flu have been reported. The new cases this year are similar to an outbreak of a new H1N1 virus in California in April 2009 that later became a pandemic flu. But that doesn’t mean that this virus will follow the same path, according to the CDC. Consumer Reports
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Doubts escalate about the latest bailout of Greece
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Doubts escalate about the latest bailout of Greece
* Friday's IMF walkout shows deep rift with Greece
* German constitutional court ruling expected to limit euro bailouts
* Iceland's former PM Geir Haarde faces charges over financial crisis
* China scrambles to explain recent arms sales offers to Gaddafi
* Pakistan, working with CIA, arrests major al-Qaeda figures
* Mideast expert suggests giving Gaza to Turkey
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You can buy a bond from Greece and get 150% of your money back in two short years. It's a great deal, but few people are taking it, because it's widely believed that Greece is going to default, despite bailouts. Spiegel
As we reported three days ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) postponed further talks until September 14, after Greece admitted that its deficit would be significantly larger than previously predicted. The IMF walkout has raised speculation that Greece's second bailout is in doubt. Accordng to one analyst, "Greece is not meeting the conditions of the (austerity) plan and the Greeks need to put some convincing proposals on the table on how to come back to the plan they had created before – and which is the basis of their second bail-out." Euro News
Greek officials attending the Eurogroup Working Group in Brussels were Monday night expected to press for a renegotiation of the goals of a multi-billion-euro bailout scheme for Greece, arguing that a deeper-than-expected recession has necessitated a review of budget deficit reduction figures. Kathimerini
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Germany's Verfassungsgericht (constitutional court) will issue its ruling on Wednesday on a legal challenge to last year's bailout of Greece, accusing the German government of breaching both the German constitution and European Union law. It is seen as certain that they will demand that the Bundestag (German parliament) be substantially involved in all further bailouts. This will mean that new bailout decisions will have to be agreed by the Bundestag, rather than just by Chancellor Angela Merkel's ministers acting alone. Spiegel
In 2009 in "Iceland's former prime minister was caught completely by surprise," I ridiculed Geir Haarde's claim that he was caught by surprise, since I had written several times, as early as in 2006, that Iceland was in financial trouble. I also ridiculed the claims of British and Dutch politicians' claims that Iceland had duped them, once again because I and others had written about what was going on. So now Haarde's harsh political opponent, Steingrimur Sigfusson, is doing everything he can to make sure that Haarde is prosecuted for the financial crisis. "When it became clear we were heading towards catastrophe ... the record shows very little was done to avoid it," Sigfusson said. What a laugh! What was Sigfusson saying before the catastrophe? The same thing can be said every other politician as well. The only ones who actually did something about it were the banksters who perpetrated it and made money from it. Anyway, it looks like Haarde may be the scapegoat. Deutsche-Welle
China's foreign ministry has confirmed reports on Monday that Chinese companies in July offered to sell Gaddafi's forces rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles and other arms totalling $200m to Gaddafi's forces. The Chinese are scrambling to explain the offers, since that would anger the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC), who would shut China out from lucrative deals in the future. According to a ministry spokeswoman, "We have clarified with the relevant agencies that in July the Gaddafi government sent personnel to China without the knowledge of the Chinese government and they engaged in contact with a handful of people from the companies concerned. The Chinese companies did not sign arms-trade contacts, nor did they export military items to Libya. I believe that the agencies in charge of the arms trade will certainly treat this seriously." However, an NTC spokesman says, "We have hard evidence of deals going on between China and Gaddafi, and we have all the documents to prove it." Al-Jazeera
Pakistani intelligence officers working with the CIA arrested three members of al-Qaeda, including Younis al-Mauritani, who has played a central role in planning and coordinating al-Qaeda's operations in Europe, plots that targeted both European and American interests. The public announcement of close cooperation with the CIA appeared aimed at reversing the widespread perception that ties between U.S. intelligence and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency had been badly damaged by the U.S. killing of bin Laden inside Pakistan. Fox News
Middle East expert Dr. Guy Bechor is recommending that Israel handle its crisis with Turkey giving responsibility for Gaza to Turkey. This would relieve Israel of the responsibility to provide humanitarian aid to Gaza, and would require Turkey to deal with Hamas. Israel National News
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Opposing forces gather around Sanaa, Yemen, preparing for battle
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Opposing forces gather around Sanaa, Yemen, preparing for battle
* Diplomatic crisis between Israel and Turkey escalates
* Turkey raises the stakes on Israel's blockade of Gaza
* Turkish columnists express concern over Israel/Turkey deterioration
* Greece and Israel agree on military cooperation
* Israeli protesters may challenge pro-settlement policies
* Pakistani cartoonists look at crisis in Pakistan-U.S. relations
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Heavy explosions could be heard on Suday in Yemen's capital, Sanaa. Government forces are on high alert, and government tanks and armored vehicles were deployed to main roads in the city. At least 2,000 troops and 15 additional tanks from republican guard and central security forces are in the capital. According to a senior interior ministry official, "We have reports that opposition forces will use force and cause violence. The government is on full alert and will not allow chaos in the country." CNN
Israel's security cabinet met in special session on Sunday evening to discuss ways to "defuse" the growing crisis between Israel and Turkey. Of particular concern was Turkey's veiled threats to break the naval blockade of Gaza, by promising to ensure freedom of maritime travel in the eastern Mediterranean, as well as support for legal actions in the International Court of Justice. There is additional concern for the threat by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to visit Gaza in September. The immediate crisis was triggered by the release of the United Nations Palmer Report on Friday about the May 31, 2010, confrontation between Israel's Defense Forces (IDF) and the "Freedom Flotilla" activists that ended in the deaths of 9 Turkish nationals. The Palmer report said that Israel's blockade of Gaza is legal, but that the IDF used excessive and unjustified force in confronting the activists. Turkey has demanded that Israel apologize, and Israel has refused. Jerusalem Post
Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu harshly criticized Israel for refusing to apologize for the deaths of Turkish nationals, and also criticized EU nations for failing to take similar harsh positions with Israel. "It is about principles for us. Our people were murdered by an army outside of combat conditions,” said Davutoglu. He also said he disagrees with the finding of the Palmer report that says that the Gaza blockade is legal, and that Turkey is preparing to challenge Israel’s blockade on Gaza at the International Court of Justice (ICJ). Zaman (Istanbul)
A number of opinion columnists in Turkish newspapers are expressing concern over the rapid deterioration of relations between Israel and Turkey. One pointed out that the rift with Israel will hinder Turkey's own fight with PKK terrorists that have killed hundreds of Turkish nationals. Hurriyet (Ankara)
Greece and Turkey have been bitter enemies since ancient times, and one of the consequences of the split between Israel and Turkey is that Israel and Greece are becoming closer allies. On Sunday, Greece's defense minister Panos Beglitis was in Jerusalem, and signed a memorandum on military cooperation with Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak. Ria Novosti
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While Saturday's anti-government rallies in Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities didn't get the one million protesters hoped for by activists, they did get 450,000 protesters, enough to make the rallies historic by Israel's standards. Some commentators predicted a gradual shift in the national debate to a divisive question: whether state subsidies for large ultra-Orthodox Jewish families, religious institutions and settlements in the occupied West Bank should be redirected toward funding better services for the general public. "Young middle-class people saw what has been happening in Israeli society over the past several years, and they are sick of it," said one protest leader. "They saw ... the flow of money into parasitic sectors, the distorted priorities of preferring building in settlements to fixing what is wrong in society and the rapid enrichment of those close to the seat of power." Reuters
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For additional cartoons, see the following: Memri
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Feds warn of small airplane terror threats
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Tel Aviv has largest protest rally in Israel's history
* Feds warn of small airplane terror threats
* Cuba withdraws ambassador from Libya
* U.S. disaster aid arrives in North Korea after floods
* Protests in Syria continue to grow despite government massacres
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An estimated 500,000 people took to the streets of coastal Tel Aviv on Saturday night, the largest protest rally in Israel's history. At least 50,000 people rallied in Jerusalem and 40,000 in the norther cit of Haifa. The protests began two months ago, and have been growing in size. The first protests were against Israel's high housing prices, but lately they've complained about the privatization of Israel's once heavily state-run economy, and about official corruption. Some of the protesters chanted slogans about the Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, but the vast majority of protesters avoided that issue. Al-Jazeera
The FBI and Homeland Security have issued a warning about small airplane terror threats by al-Qaeda, just days before the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 terror attacks. The bulletin is considered a routine warning, sent to law enforcement officials around the country. AP
Cuba has announced the withdrawal of its ambassador and diplomatic mission in Libya and reiterated that it does not recognize the rebels' transitional government. It also has denounced the NATO military intervention, saying the bombing killed "thousands" of civilians. Fidel Castro was a long time ally of Gaddafi, and was outspoken in his criticism of the uprising against Gaddafi. AP
A U.S. aid shipment arrived in North korea on Saturday, with about 90 tonnes of emergency supplies, including food, medical aid, soap, blankets and cooking kits. The U.S. has suspended food aid to North Korea because many people believe that the North Koreans divert all food aid to the army, but this is emergency aid for more that 15,000 people left homeless by floods, which also inundated 48,000 hectares (120,000 acres) of farmland. 350 factories and public buildings also collapsed. The funding for the aid includes $900,000 from the U.S. government and $1.2 million from Samaritan's Purse, a relief agency headed by Franklin Graham. AP
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The protests across Syria have continued to grow despite bloody massacres and torture by the Bashar al-Assad regime. Rallies occur almost daily, but the biggest rallies occur on Fridays, as people flood out of the mosques after midday prayers. When the protests began five months ago, protesters were calling for reforms, but now protesters are calling for the death of Assad, and chanting, "Death rather than humiliation!" Protesters used to say that they didn't want Western intervention, but now they're carrying signs saying, "We don't have oil like Iraq or Libya, don't we deserve to live?" Day Press (Syria)
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U.S. economy has zero jobs growth in August
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* U.S. economy has zero jobs growth in August
* Turkey expels Israel's ambassador
* Arabs applaud Turkey's decision to expel Israel's ambassador
* WikiLeaks publishes 251,000 unredacted previously secret documents
* IMF raises new obstacles to the second bailout of Greece
* U.N. to announce that Somalia famine is spreading and worsening
* The last sunrise between the Twin Towers
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The U.S. economy did not add any jobs in August, a further sign that the fabled "V-shaped recovery" is not going to occur as expected in the last half of this year. Experts had predicted a gain of 53,000 jobs.
This was another "first Friday of the month" where I watched the CNBC commentators in stunned reaction to the bad jobs report. This is very ominous and continues a trend that's far from over. People will increasingly have to accept lower salaries, which will push the deflation trend enormously. A lot of people won't be able to get jobs at all. The Dow Industrials were down 253 points. Analysts are talking about a recession, which is very bad news for stocks, since it will mean that earnings will be lower than the bloated predictions, which means that even the fraudulent P/E ratios based on operating earnings will be rising, forcing a selloff. It looks like September and October are going to be very bad. Market Watch
The United Nations finally released the leaked Palmer Report on the May 31, 2010, flotilla incident, where 9 Turkish activists were killed in a confrontation with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). The report tried to take a middle path: It said that the the Israeli blockade of Gaza was legal and justified, but it said that the IDF had used excessive violence in the flotilla confrontation. Turkey had demanded that Israel apologize, but Israel has refused to do so.
On Friday, Turkey expelled Israel's ambassador and senior Israeli diplomats. Turkey's Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced additional measures, including suspending military cooperation, take Israel to the international Court of Justice, and "take measures for freedom of maritime movement in the eastern Mediterranean Sea." Hurriyet (Ankara)
An unnamed senior Israeli government official said that Israel will not apologize for the incident. Israel "again expresses its regret for the loss of life, but will not apologize for actions of self defense taken by its soldiers." Israel applauded the conclusion of the report that Israel's naval blockage of Gaza was legal and necessary. Jerusalem Post
Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said, "Hamas welcomes the decision [of Turkey] to expel the Israeli ambassador and considers it as a clear answer to Israeli crimes." Two Israeli Arab members of Israel's Parliament (Knesset) indicated support of Turkey's decision. United Arab List-Ta’al chairman Ahmed Tibi saying that "these days, whoever kills pays," adding that "eventually, Israeli arrogance will lead to an apology by the most extreme and arrogant of Israel's governments. In Turkey, the blood of those killed can be heard screaming from the soil and from the sea." Gulf News and Haaretz
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The United Nations is planning to announce Monday that the famine in Somalia has now spread to new regions of Somalia, and that 4 million people, more than half the population, are in a famine crisis. Because of a long drought, food production in the region has fallen by 82%. VOA
WikiLeaks has published its full archive of 251,000 secret US diplomatic cables, without redactions, potentially exposing thousands of individuals named in the documents to detention, harm or putting their lives in danger. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange had long ago promised that documents would be carefully redacted to remove names and other information that could identify informants. That promise is now out the window, as all names and identifying information are now public, providing a convenient source for al-Qaeda, China and Iran to compile an enemies list of people to torture or kill. News organizations that had previously cooperated to publish the documents -- the Guardian, New York Times, El Pais, Der Spiegel and Le Monde -- are now under fire, and are defending themselves by expressing outrage. Guardian
The second bailout of Greece, which supposedly everyone agreed to in July, but which was never a realistic plan, was dealt new blows on Friday, as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) met with Greek officials for the required auditing. Greece's finance minister Evangelos Venizelos admitted that Greece's budget deficit this year would be larger than previously predicting, requiring new austerity measures. Furthermore, the plan required that large European banks "voluntarily" agree to take a 21% "haircut" on their holdings of Greek bonds, and for some reason the banks are volunteering, with next Friday a looming deadline. Finally, the IMF is opposing Finland's deal with Greece to "collateralize" it's share of the bailout, and the bailout cannot go through without Finland's agreement. Talks between the IMF and Greece have been postponed until September 14, to give everyone time to fantasize a new way to kick the can down the road. Telegraph
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On 9/11/2001, two Germans were on a sailboat in New York Harbor. They took pictures of the Twin Towers throughout the day. Check out the entire picture gallery in this article. It really brings back memories. Spiegel
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Pakistan and India armies exchange fire in Kashmir
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Pakistan and India armies exchange fire in Kashmir
* U.N. report on flotilla calls Israel's actions legal but excessively violent
* Palestinians may settle for being a U.N. "Observer State"
* High-profile official resigns from Syria's government in protest
* Russia's Soyuz Program Crashes and Burns
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India's army opened "unprovoked" fire across the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir, killing three Pakistani soldiers, according to Pakistan's army. The LoC is the artificial boundary dividing Kashmir into the Pakistan-controlled and India-controlled regions. However, India's army has a different story. "They opened fire first and we retaliated … In the morning again they started firing mortars again and we retaliated and the exchange of fire continued." Reuters
A leaked copy of a U.N. report on the May 31, 2010, "Freedom Flotilla" incident that resulted in the deaths of 9 Turks at the hands of Israel's armed forces says that Israel's actions were legal and justified, but that they were excessively brutal and violent. According to the report:
"Israel faces a real threat to its security from militant groups in Gaza. The naval blockade was imposed as a legitimate security measure in order to prevent weapons from entering Gaza by sea and its implementation complied with the requirements of international law. ...Although people are entitled to express their political views, the flotilla acted recklessly in attempting to breach the naval blockade. The majority of the flotilla participants had no violent intentions, but there exist serious questions about the conduct, true nature and objectives of the flotilla organisers. ...
Israeli Defence Forces personnel faced significant, organised and violent resistance from a group of passengers when they boarded the Mavi Marmara requiring them to use force for their own protection. Three soldiers were captured, mistreated, and placed at risk by those passengers. Several others were wounded. ...
No satisfactory explanation has been provided to the panel by Israel for any of the nine deaths. Forensic evidence showing that most of the deceased were shot multiple times, including in the back, or at close range has not been adequately accounted for in the material presented by Israel."
A furious Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that irrespective of anything that the leaked U.N. report says, Turkey's demands of Israel are unchanged: official apology, compensation to families of the victims and lifting the Gaza blockade. Davutoglu said that Friday is the last chance for Israel to apologize. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Turkey intends now to move on to "Plan B," which will include a campaign against Israel to be carried out at UN institutions, legal action against senior Israeli figures in European courts, and an end to military cooperation between Turkey and Israel. Zaman (Istanbul)
If, as expected, the United States vetoes the Palestinian bid for admission to the United Nations as a sovereign state in the Security Council, then the Palestinians can ask the General Assembly for Palestine to be admitted as an "Observer State," which would not require Security Council approval. It would allow the Palestinians to level charges against Israel in the International Criminal Court, or to invite U.N. peacekeepers into the West Bank and Gaza, resulting in at least a legal confrontation with Israeli troops. Time
Judge Adnan Mohammad al-Bakkour, the attorney-general of Hama, a major city of Syria, has resigned in the first high-profile defection from the regime of president Bashar al-Assad. "I, Judge Adnan Mohammad al-Bakkour, Hama province Attorney-General, declare that I have resigned in protest of the savage regime's practices against peaceful demonstrators," he said. Reuters
With America's space shuttle fleet in mothballs, Nasa is depending on Russia's Soyuz rockets to transport supplies and astronauts to the international space station. But the recent crash of a Soyuz rocket on a supply mission is more than just an embarrassment for Russia's space industry. The accident follows a series of mishaps in the space program. These mishaps have shattered public confidence in the aging Russian technology, which is crucial to the future of manned spaceflight. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 2-Sep-11 News -- U.N. flotilla report raises Turkey-Israel tensions
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Sep-2011)
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Jordan's king warns that Palestinian statehood would harm Palestinians' rights
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
* Two Gaddafi sons contradict each other on negotiations
* Iran warns Syrian regime to compromise with pro-democracy protesters
* Reports of massacres and horrific torture in Syria
* Sarkozy wants united European opinion on Palestinian statehood
* Jordan's king warns that Palestinian statehood would harm Palestinians' rights
* Hamas warns Mahmoud Abbas to stay out of Gaza
* China jails Tibetan monks for not stopping another monk from dying
 |
Muammar Gaddafi's son Saadi Gaddafi has contacted Libya's rebel National Transitional Council (NTC), saying that he has authorization from his father to pursue negotiations to end the conflict. "We [Saadi and NTC] were talking about negotiations based on ending bloodshed. We acknowledge that they [NTC] represent a legal party, but we are also the government and a legal negotiating party." Australian Broadcasting
Muammar Gaddafi's most prominent son Saif al-Islam Gaddafi told a Syrian television state that he is in the suburbs outside Tripoli, and that his father "is fine." He vowed that he and other family members will fight until death and said nobody will surrender. He told the pro-Gaddafi Syrian station that morale among loyalist fighters is high. This conflict between the sons may indicate a deeper disagreement within the family. VOA
Up until now, Iran has given full-throated support to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad's campaign to massacre and torture unarmed civilians in his own country, blaming the violence on "foreign conspiracies." But now, with the apparent success the rebel uprising in Libya, Iran is concerned about losing its most important ally in the Mideast. Iran's Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi was blunt when he declared: "Either in Yemen, Syria or any other country, people have some legitimate demands and governments should answer them as soon as possible." Iran thus joins a long line of Arab and Western countries that are demanding the Assad implement reforms. Gulf News
The Syrian regims crackdown on civilian protestors has led to reports of more than 2,200 casualties. In a report documenting the deaths of 88 Syrian detainees, their bodies showed evidence of horrific beatings and other torture. Signs indicating torture include burns, blunt force injuries, whipping marks, and slashes. Amnesty International
Up until now, most European countries have refrained from committing on how they would vote on the expected United Nations resolution to recognize a Palestinian state, expected on September 20. But now, France's president Nicolas Sarkozy is demanding that EU speak with one voice -- though he doesn't say which way the EU should vote. "The role of the US is uncontested and irreplaceable, but everybody sees that it's not enough. The 27 countries of the European Union must express themselves with one voice." Reuters
The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), currently headed by Mahmoud Abbas, has been recognized by the United Nations as the "sole legitimate representative" of the Palestinians -- not just the 4 million Palestinians in the Palestinian terroritories, but also the 5 million Palestinians in the diaspora. Jordan's King Abdullah II, after consulting with a team of international lawyers, is warning that if the U.N. recognizes Palestinian statehood, then the 5 million in the diaspora would lose all the rights, including the "right to return." Abdullah has thus asked Abbas to recondisder his plan to bring statehood to a vote. Abbas however, plans to move forward with his move. Jerusalem Post
Hamas co-founder Mahmoud Zahar is working Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas to stay out of Gaza, where there may be attempts on his life. Zahar also said that the reconciliation plan to unify Hamas and Fatah is dead. Israel National News
In August, a Buddhist monk in Tibet became the second this year to die after setting himself on fire, to protest China's discrimination against Buddhism. A Chinese court has sentenced two other monks to prison for assisting in the death of a monk during a similar protest in March. Guardian
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 1-Sep-11 World View -- Two Gaddafi sons contradict each other on negotiations
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Sep-2011)
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