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Krugman campaigns for Ireland to reject EU fiscal treaty on Thursday
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Wednesday that the Israeli government is considering taking unilateral action if peace talks with the Palestinians remain stalled. The unilaterial action would be to withdraw from the West Bank, similar to the unilateral withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005.
"Israel cannot afford to tread water. [If a deal] proves to be impossible, we have to consider a provisional arrangement or even unilateral action."
In the case of Gaza, the withdrawal was followed by a violent takeover by the terrorist group Hamas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that he would not permit a similar takeover in the West Bank. AP
A top aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas rejected the proposal by Ehud Barak for unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank:
"Israeli unilateral moves will lead to the formation of a Palestinian state in temporary borders, to which we object. "This policy will lead to the conflict's continuation and not to a solution, burying the two-state solution. [The Palestinian Authority is committed to] a final agreement in which a Palestinian state will be formed with Jerusalem as its capital. Without Jerusalem, we won't agree to anything."
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The remarkable thing about this story is not that Spain's government tried to push an illegal transaction to fund its banks. The remarkable thing is that they didn't get away with it, in today's culture of fraud and extortion. Spain's 10-year bond prices were crashing last year, meaning that their yields (interest rates) were skyrocketing. The European Central Bank (ECB) saved the day last December by "printing" €1.1 trillion in its LTRO program, pouring into the eurozone banking system, pushing bond yields from the extremely dangerous 7% down to a less dangerous 5%. (By comparison, Germany's 10-year bond yields today are at 1.75%.) Well, the ECB's LTRO program ended three months ago, and since then, Spain's bond yields have been surging, reaching 6.67% on Wednesday. So Spain's government tried a little trick. They would sell their bonds to the Spanish bank Bankia, which would then get swapped out for cash at the ECB's three-month refinancing window, effectively giving Spain a personal LTRO. Well, on Tuesday, the ECB rejected the scheme, as violating EU rules against central bank funding of governments. Tsk tsk. So Spain's bond yields are closing in on the 7%, which is the point at which Greece and Ireland were given bailouts. MarketWatch and AP
Polls indicate that Ireland's voters will vote "yes" to a new European Union fiscal treaty that will demand further austerity from Ireland and from any other countries that require bailouts. Proponents of the treaty say that it will provide stability, and they point out that if the treaty is rejected, then Ireland won't get any more bailout money after next year.
However, the situation has been muddled by the active campaigning of NY Times far left columnist Paul Krugman, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics because of his hatred of President George Bush. In general, Krugman favors "printing" an unlimited amount of money, through monetary and fiscal policy, in both Europe and America. And so Krugman was in Britain on Wednesday telling the Irish to reject the treaty. His reasoning is exactly the same as the claim by Greece's radical left candidate Alexis Tsipras. Both Krugman and Tsipras claim that EU officials in general, and German officials in particular, are bluffing when they say that they will stop bailing out any country (Ireland or Greece) that doesn't stick to strict austerity requirements. While almost all of Ireland's political parties have campaigned in support of the treaty, the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein has shot up in popularity in the opinion polls because it's the only significant party opposing it. AP and Irish Examiner
France's unemployment rate hit almost 10% in April, the tenth consecutive monthly increase, and the highest unemployment rate since September 1999. This is the first unemployment report since the election of the new Socialist president François Hollande,, and there are signs that a number of corporate layoffs were postponed until after the election. However, France's labor unions have the solution: Raise France's minimum wage even higher than it's current value of €9.22 ($11.50). This would trigger additional layoffs and more unemployment, but it would have the advantage of giving a lot more money to labor unions. Reuters and Euro News
In another sign that the global economy is slowing down, oil prices feel more than 3% on Wednesday, on news that the eurozone debt crisis is spreading, and news that China apparently doesn't plan a new, massive economic stimulus like the one it unleashed in 2009. Investors are clamoring for unlimited money "printing" in America, Europe and China, but apparently even politicians are now able to see that this is causing huge dislocations, and will only make the coming global financial crisis even worse. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 31-May-12 World View -- Israel's Defense Minister suggests unilateral withdrawal from West Bank
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(31-May-2012)
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Housing prices fall to new lows
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Bulgaria and the Netherlands took coordinated action on Tuesday by simultaneously expelling their Syrian diplomats, following a gruesome massacre that the United Nations said involved close-range shootings of scores of children and parents in their homes. The moves came after the killings Friday in Houla, a collection of farming villages in Syria's Homs province — one of the deadliest single events in a 15-month-old uprising against Syria's president Bashar al-Assad that has killed thousands. AP
The coordinated expulsion of Syrian diplomats from ten countries was symbolically impressive, but it's not clear that it will make any difference whatsoever. According to the White House, all options are still on the table, but:
"We do not believe that militarization, further militarization of the situation in Syria at this point is the right course of action. We believe that it would lead to greater chaos, greater carnage."
With the "Kofi Annan Peace Plan" now in such shambles that it's hard to find anyone willing to vouch for it (beyond the remark, "It has to work, because it's the only thing we have"), we now have to see what Syria's neighbors are going to do. The conflict is feeding into sectarian tensions throughout the Mideast, as al-Assad's regime uses Alawite militias to slaughter Sunni civilians. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are already providing money and weapons to the Sunni opposition in Syria.
But perhaps more significant is the growing instability within Lebanon. There are frequent gunfights in Tripoli, Lebanon, near the border with Syria, and Lebanese Sunnis cross into Syria to fight with Shia militants. Tensions in Lebanon shot up early last week when a busload of Shia Lebanese citizens were kidnapped, presumably by Sunnis, in Syria, as they traveled back to Lebanon from a religious pilgrimage to Iran. The women and elderly men were released immediately, but 11 Shia men are still being held. This situation has raised tension so much that even Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, who is normally doing everything he can to stir up violence, last week called for calm, a statement so uncharacteristic of him that it brought a smile to a lot of lips, including mine. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Daily Star
The European Union presidency rotates through the member countries in six-month terms, and beginning July 1, the president of Greek Cyprus will be president of the EU. Turkey and Greece fought a very bitter proxy war in Cyprus in the 1970s, causing Cyprus to be split into Greek and Turkish regions. However, Turkey does not recognize Greek Cyprus, and so, for six months beginning July 1, Turkey will terminate all negotiations to become a member of the European Union. European Parliament President Martin Schulz is calling this decision unacceptable:
"I take note that a candidate state says to us we will not negotiate during the presidency of a member state of the European Union. But I criticize this. This is not possible and I have to take note of that as well."
According to a report released on Tuesday, all three of the S&P/Case-Shiller housing price index composites fell to new post-crisis lows in the first quarter, with the national composite sliding a whopping 2% in the first three months of 2012. There was a brief upward burst of prices in 2011, leading financial experts and pundits to declare that housing prices had "bottomed," and that the crisis was over. These are the same experts who were saying in the mid-2000s decade that there was no housing bubble because "Everyone has to live somewhere." These are the same experts who have been declaring a bottom every month since 2007. But Tuesday's figures indicate that the housing bubble collapse still has a long way to go. Forbes
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 30-May-12 World View -- Syria's instability continues to spread into Lebanon
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-May-2012)
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Sweden's Loreen wins Eurovision Song Contest
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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I originally thought that when the U.N. Security Council unanimously passed a resolution condemning Syria's president Bashar al-Assad for Saturday's horrific massacre by the Syrian army in house to house slaughter of over 100 people including dozens of children, Russia might be changing position, and giving up its support for the "Assad Peace Plan," which means keep slaughtering people until you've exterminated everyone who utters a peep of protest. It turns out that's not entirely true. Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague met with Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow on Monday, and they went back to talking about giving the "Kofi Annan Peace Plan" time to work. This would mean that Sunday's Security Council vote was not a change of position, but merely a signal to al-Assad to make sure that the next time he exterminates all the women and children in a village, he should make sure his army doesn't leave behind incriminating evidence, like tank shells. Moscow Times and Voice of Russia International outrage appears to grow over SyriaI heard an offhand remark on the BBC today that Saturday's massacre might be "Syria's My Lai." This is an interesting allusion to the Vietnam War and very interesting from a theoretical point of view. The Vietnam War was a generational Awakening era war for America, a war in which the U.S. was humiliated and was arguably defeated. America was defeated by harsh political opposition in the United States, with a series of specific incidents turning the public against the war. The incidents that come to mind are the My Lai massacre, Walter Cronkite's declaration of American defeat, and the National Guard killing of four Kent State Students. As I've written many times, Syria's current "civil war" is also an Awakening era war, coming just one generation after the real civil war that occurred in Syria, climaxing in the 1982 slaughter in Homa. As happens in Awakening era wars, public opinion against the war will continue to grow, until the war fizzles. Saturday's Houla massacre may well turn out to be one of the events that cause Syria's current war to fizzle, after which Kofi Annan and al-Assad can congratulate each other for bringing peace to Syria.
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Germany's Merkel prepares to strike back against France's Hollande on austerity
There's been a noticeable shift in sentiment in Europe in the last few weeks, thanks to the recent elections in France and Greece, giving the popular vote to "hope and change" candidates who want to give up the hopeless austerity path and return to the even more hopeless path of uncontrolled debt and spending. France's new President François Hollande has won widespread support for his "eurobond" proposal, which would permit the eurozone to issue bonds that all 17 countries would be jointly responsible for. Germany opposes this because, after all, it would mean that Germany would be the ones guaranteeing the debts of the "profligate" countries. However, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been increasingly isolated by Hollande. Now she plans to strike back with a six-point proposal, the major terms of which are as follows:
The intent is that a troubled country that wants to take advantage of eurobonds will be forced to begin with austerity steps that Hollande and France will not be willing to consider. Meanwhile, the euro zone economy continues to deteriorate inexorably, no matter what the politicians do, with the crisis du jour occurring in Spain's banking system, resulting in new high yields (interest rates) for Spanish bonds. Spiegel and Bloomberg
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Sweden's Loreen wins Eurovision Song Contest
It's hard to describe the Eurovision Song Contest to someone outside of Europe, except to say that it's a high-prestige singing circus, where every European country chooses an act to compete, the more glitzy and outrageous the better, with the winner chosen by popular vote. Last year's winner was from Azerbaijan, so this years Eurovision contest was held in Baku, Azerbaijan's capital, resulting in numerous protests over human rights abuses. This year's winner was Loreen, a Swedish girl who put body and soul into her song "Euphoria." If you have a little time, click on a video of her performance.
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For today's musical entertainment, here's the video of Abba singing 'Waterloo'. This was Sweden's first Eurovision victory, in 1974.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 29-May-12 World View -- World outrage focuses on Syria's Houla massacre
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-May-2012)
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Cuba's plans to exploit offshore oil fields
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Egypt's presidential election, said to be the first free election in 5,000 years, has dismayed the young protesters who began the "Egyptian Revolution" in January of last year now see the entire effort as a waste of time. The "liberal" vote was split among a number of candidates, with the result that the two candidates to survive the first round were Mohammed Morsi of the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party and Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak's last prime minister. Some liberals retreated to black humor: "All it takes now is for Mubarak to be released and be made vice president." However, as I wrote last week in "23-May-12 World View -- Egypt prepares for historic presidential election", from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, an Iran-style hardline Islamic revolution is not possible at this time, and it's very unlikely that Egypt's peace treaty with Israel will be abrogated, though it may be modified. Guardian
I had assumed that Saturday's bloody massacre in Houla in Syria on Saturday, killing 108 people including 49 children, and wounding dozens more, by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad would be forgotten in a day or two. But, much to my surprise, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Sunday condemning the al-Assad regime. The resolution was passed unanimously, with positive votes by Russia and China, two countries that in the past refused to condemn al-Assad. Russia is Assad's biggest ally, supplying him money and weapons in return for hosting Russia's only Mediterranean naval port. However, the recent massacre was so bloody that even Russia and China apparently felt they had no choice but to endorse the resolution. Guardian
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Just a few months ago, Mali was thought to be one of the most stable democracies in Africa. But after a military coup, followed by the seizure of northern Mali by three competing revolutionary groups, Mali is now one of the most chaotic countries in Africa. One of the revolutionary groups was ethnic Tuareg rebels, led by return fighters from last year's war in Libya declared an independent state of Azawad in northern Mali on April 7."#> A second rebel group was the Islamist group Ansar Dine, who want to impose strict Sharia law in Mali. On Sunday, the Tuaregs apparently acceded to the demands of Ansar Dine, and the two groups announced the formation of an Islamic state. The third rebel group is Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which would like to go further and use northern Mali as a base for jihad, making the situation in Mali extremely dangerous. VOA
Cuba is a net importer of oil, mostly provided by Venezuela under a 2000 agreement. However, Cuba is now actively drilling for offshore oil in Cuba's exclusive economic zone (EEZ), just 60 miles from the coast of Florida. It will take 3-5 years before real production could begin. If an accident similar to the BP disaster of 2010 occur, the consequences could be serious for the entire Gulf of Mexico. Council on Hemispheric Affairs
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 28-May-12 World View -- Young liberals dismayed by 'nightmare scenario' in Egypt
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-May-2012)
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Dozens dead in biggest one-day massacre by Syria's Assad regime
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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International Monetary Fund managing director, Christine Lagarde, has ratcheted up the hostility between European officials and Greeks with blunt warnings that it's "payback time" for the Greeks. Lagarde indicated that there will be no softening of the terms of Greece's austerity package:
"I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens. ...Do you know what? As far as Athens is concerned, I also think about all those people who are trying to escape tax all the time. All these people in Greece who are trying to escape tax. I think they should also help themselves collectively. ... By all paying their tax."
Lagarde's remarks come after the release of figures indicating a sharp fall in tax revenues – down by a third in a year. Under the terms of the country's bailout, Athens has agreed to improve Greece's poor record for tax collection in order to reduce its budget deficit, and Lagarde's remarks are evidence of a growing impatience in the international community. Reports surfaced in Germany and France of preparations being made to cope with Greece's possible departure from the single currency after its election on 17 June. Guardian
In a statement late on Saturday, the IMF's Christine Lagarde expressed sympathy for Greeks “and the challenges they are facing” and said that her comments regarding tax evasion were in reference to the “most privileged." She issued the statement after furious responses from Greeks, some suggesting that Lagarde was racist. Evangelos Venizelos, leader of the left-of-center PASOK party, said:
"Nobody should humiliate a people during a crisis and I call on Mrs Lagarde, who insulted the Greek people with her attitude, to rethink what she wanted to say."
The Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), the party leading in the polls for the June 16 election, and whose leader Alexis Tsipras has said he would terminate the austerity measures and has indicated that he thought that the EU and IMF have been bluffing when they said that Greece would receive no more aid in that case, issued a statement:
"The Lagarde comments reveal the cynicism and true role of the International Monetary Fund, which is responsible for the destruction of whole societies. PASOK and New Democracy bear huge responsibility for submitting the country to an IMF program, which leads to bankruptcy and poverty."
Britain's Home Secretary, Theresa May, says that "work is ongoing" to implement emergency immigration controls to restrict an influx of Greeks and other European Union residents into Britain if Greece leaves the eurozone. However, there are growing concerns that if Greece was forced to leave the euro, it would effectively go bankrupt and millions could lose their jobs and consider looking for work abroad. The crisis could spread quickly to other vulnerable countries such as Spain, Ireland and Portugal, although Britain is regarded as a safe haven because it is outside the single currency. Telegraph
We recently reported that nationalist political parties are gaining strength in Israel. This increase in nationalism is also being reflected in attitudes towards settlements in the West Bank, according to the left-wing Peace Now activist group:
"Without us noticing, the Right is creating a real revolution in public opinion regarding the territories. A bloated right-wing network is working on a few fronts: tours for the media, bloggers and influential figures in [the West Bank], a complete takeover when it comes to explaining diplomacy in pre-army programs..."
However, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this increased nationalism is not being "created" by right wing media or politicians. Rather, increased nationalism is a feature of every country during a generational Crisis era, and it leads inevitably to a major crisis war. Israel National News
When the Kofi Annan "peace plan" was announced in March, I called it "farcical", and time has shown that criticism to be, if anything, an understatement. The peace plan has proven to be a fig leaf behind which the United Nations could pretend that nothing was going on, while the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad could claim that he was the victim of terrorist violence, and have those claims parroted by the BBC and al-Jazeera. But what happened on Saturday was so horrific that the fig leaf has been blown away, if only for one day. In one of the bloodiest single incidents in the 14-month-old protest against Assad's rule, Syrian regime forces slaughtered over 90 people, including dozens of children, and wounded hundreds other, by attacks on unarmed residential neighborhoods. According to the statement issued by the United Nations:
"The Secretary-General and the Joint Special Envoy condemn in the strongest possible terms the killing, confirmed by United Nations observers, of dozens of men, women and children and the wounding of hundreds more in the village of El-Houleh, near Homs. Observers from the UN Supervision Mission in Syria have viewed the bodies of the dead and confirmed from an examination of ordnance that artillery and tank shells were fired at a residential neighbourhood.This appalling and brutal crime involving indiscriminate and disproportionate use of force is a flagrant violation of international law and of the commitments of the Syrian Government to cease the use of heavy weapons in population centres and violence in all its forms. Those responsible for perpetrating this crime must be held to account."
Unlike typical U.N. statements, this one clearly and unequivocally blames the Assad regime, based on an examination of the artillery and tank shells fired at a residential neighborhood. As shocking as this is, it's not going to change anything for more than a day. By Monday, the BBC and other mainstream media will be back to parroting the lines about the Kofi Annan peace plan. Washington Post and Day Press News
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 27-May-12 World View -- International Monetary Fund to Greece: Drop Dead!
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-May-2012)
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Spain's banks requesting massive bailouts
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Thousands of people have died of starvation in the last three months in North Korea's supposedly rich agricultural heartland of Hwanghae Province. According to one North Korean source:
"A few dozen very weak people could be found on each farm. The farms put in place measures to deal with it, but these were fairly useless. By the time April had passed, something like ten people had died of starvation on each farm."
Food production fell sharply at the end of 2011 due to flooding, and then most of the harvest was diverted to the military or to the élite in Pyongyang. Daily NK
North Korea's western coast region, on the border with China, is experiencing the worst drought since 1962. Advance weather forecasts indicate that little rainfall is expected in June. Yonhap (Seoul)
The episode that we reported last week ( "18-May-12 World View -- Today's Schadenfreude: North Koreans kidnap 29 Chinese fishermen") has ended with the return of the Chinese fishermen to China. But China's blogosphere is infuriated by images of of the crew members stripped to their longjohns, saying that they were beaten and starved. One story said the kidnappers ripped down the Chinese flag on one boat and used it "like a rag." This comes several weeks after various other diplomatic insults from the North Koreans, including where they defied Chinese wishes by testing a nuclear-capable long-range missile without even notifying the Chinese. Apparently the North Koreans treat the Chinese as contemptuously as they treat Americans. AP
As China builds its military in preparation for launching a war with the United States, there's been a lengthy discussion in the Generational Dynamics Forum forum whether China's first military strike will be an invasion of the Philippines or an invasion of Taiwan, or something else, and whether the first strike will be met with appeasement or counter-strike by the United States. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, It's worth pointing out that China's decision may not be entirely rational. The thing that distinguishes generational crisis and non-crisis wars is that non-crisis wars do tend to be rational, while crisis wars tend to be built on pure emotion. The attack by the American South on a northern fort, leading to the American Civil War, was not a rational decision, in that the North was three times as large as the South. Similarly, Japan's bombing of Pearl Harbor was an emotional decision that could not have succeeded in the long run. As I read the behaviors and statements coming out of China today, I see China as a country giddy with military power to the point of mass hysteria, and way overconfident. At the same time, China's military is strongly built up on several fronts -- on the border with India, in the South China Sea, across from Taiwan, and in other places. At some point, probably not in the not too distant future, the Chinese will make an emotional decision to launch a war on one, two three, or more fronts, leading to a world war, and that will be that.
Rarely does a day go by any more when the economic news out of Europe isn't disastrous. On Friday, Spain's fourth biggest bank, the newly nationalized Bankia SA, asked for a bailout of €19 billion from Spain's government. On the same day, the president of Catalonia, one of the wealthiest of Spain's 17 regions, said that Catalonia needed a bailout, to help refinance €36 billion of debt maturing this year. Meanwhile, the government itself has pledged to implement an austerity program that will save more than €45 billion in debt, something that many analysts say is impossible. Oh, I almost forgot: S&P cut the debt rating Catalonia to one notch above junk status, and cut the rating on Bankia and two other Spanish banks to below junk status. Reuters and Bloomberg
It's truly astonishing how helpless the politicians are, and how "kicking the can down the road" has been a total failure over and over and over. The philosophy behind kicking the can down the road is that if you can stall long enough, then growth will magically start occurring, just as it has in all the decades since the end of World War II. But this is where Generational Dynamics theory comes in, and tells you what's really going to happen. The current era cannot be compared in any way to the decades since the end of WW II. This is a generational Crisis era like the 1930s, and the only macroeconomic models that can tell you anything about what's coming are the macroeconomic models from the 1930s -- and the news that those models bring you is not good news. Even massive monetary and fiscal stimulus will do no good, as we've already seen time after time, and in fact will make the final disaster only worse.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 26-May-12 World View -- North Koreans in supposedly rich rice belt 'starve to death'
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-May-2012)
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New edition of Adolf Hitler's 'Mein Kampf' to be published
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The state of Bavaria has held the copyright to Adolf Hitler's 1923 anti-Semitic rant Mein Kampf since the end of World War II, and hasn't allowed it to be published since then, although the text is available for free online. But now a Munich historical institute is publishing the first scholarly edition of the book since WW II. According to the publisher,
"Hitler was self-taught and, stylistically speaking, the book is fundamentally flawed. Its atmosphere is dull, muggy and inferior. But one shouldn't underestimate Hitler's intelligence, just as the history of National Socialism has always been a history of underestimation. The book also contains keen observations. And it's a book that was even more important for its author than for its readers. This is where Hitler developed the vision he would later realize. He was a revolutionary, programmatic thinker and statesman, all in one person -- which, incidentally, is a rare historical phenomenon. ...In the beginning, the major players in the Nazi Party all had different ideas of what National Socialism meant. In the end, it was Hitler who prevailed. And this book contains his program, more or less openly formulated. It wasn't for nothing that British Prime Minister Winston Churchill later said that this book, more than any other, deserved to have been studied more carefully by Allied politicians and military leaders after Hitler assumed power."
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) measures the health of manufacturing in an economy, and so reflects the health of the entire economy. It's based on five indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. In China, the PMI fell in May for the seventh straight month, indicating that China is in its longest slowdown of the the global financial crisis. The most important factor is the fall in new export orders, caused by the eurozone's deepening debt crisis. Reuters
Europe's PMI, also released on Thursday, showed that euro-area manufacturing was the weakest in 35 months, with the weakness being blamed on the debt crisis in Greece, Spain and Italy. According to one analyst:
"The euro zone is being buffeted by major headwinds, notably increased fiscal tightening in many countries and markedly rising unemployment. The heightened Greek crisis is magnifying the problems by weighing down on already weak and fragile business and consumer confidence, adding to uncertainty about the outlook."
For the first time in history, Germany issued long term bonds with a zero percent yield (interest rate) on Wednesday. In other words, purchasers of these bonds will earn no interest whatsoever. Why would anyone buy these bonds, when they can purchase Spain's bonds that pay interest rates above 6%? Because they believe that they might lose their money purchasing Spain's bonds, but they consider Germany's bonds to be safe from default. It's likely that some investors would even purchase bonds with a negative interest rate, essentially paying money for the privilege of having a safe place to park it. Spiegel
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the U.S. also indicated a contraction in manufacturing. Contributing to the poor PMI showing were falls in core capital goods orders and exports. BBC
More than 30% of mortgage borrowers, or close to 16 million homeowners, were "underwater" during the first quarter, slightly more than in the previous quarter. The number of foreclosures has been held down because of processing delays, but the number of foreclosures is expected increase in the months to come. Las Vegas has, by far, the highest percentage of underwater borrowers at 71%. Home prices there are down a whopping 62% from peak. CNN
Nato is supposed to be concerned with the security of Europe, but the recent Nato meeting in Chicago completely ignored some of Europe's most potent threats -- Europe's east, the six countries bordering on Nato and the EU -- which face a deepening security vacuum and Russian re-expansion. This region is the arena of protracted conflicts (Russia-Moldova, Russia-Georgia on two fronts, Armenia-Azerbaijan), territorial occupations, ethnic cleansing, massive Russian military bases in Ukraine and Armenia. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 25-May-12 World View -- Bad economic news pours out of China, Europe and America
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-May-2012)
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Greece vs Europe conflict becomes more critical
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The conflict between Greece and Europe over austerity is growing, and reaching a critical stage. Alexis Tsipras, 38, whose Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) party is currently expected to win Greece's June 17 elections, has said that he'll end Greece's austerity measures, and claims that Europe is bluffing when officials say that Greece will not receive any more bailout money and will have to leave the euro currency, and return to the drachma. However, European officials, especially the Germans are being very blunt in telling Tsipras, in effect, "screw you." The Bundesbank said that a Greek withdrawal from the eurozone would be disruptive but "manageable," and reports keep leaking that other countries are making plans for a Greek exit. As I've said in the past, if my "Kick the Can" theory holds in this case, then whoever wins on June 17 will agree with Europe on some face-saving minor reduction in the austerity requirements, thus kicking the can down the road for a few weeks. Kathimerini and Telegraph
Yemen is on the brink of a catastrophic food crisis, with 10 million people – 44% of the population – without enough food to eat, and with one in three children severely malnourished, according to seven aid agencies. Yemen is certainly a troubled country. It's fighting a continuing battle with Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and suffered a massive suicide attack in the capital Sanaa, as we reported two days ago. Saudi Arabia and Western and Gulf states pledged more than $4 billion in aid to Yemen at a Riyadh conference on Wednesday, of which the Saudis will provide $3.25 billion. Countries from the Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, attended the meeting, as did the United States, the European Union, France, Egypt and Russia, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Yemen Post and Reuters
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Russia has admitted that when they were awarded the rights to the 2014 Winter Olympics in the beautiful Black Sea resort of Sochi, they underestimated a very important issue: the ethnic Circassians. As I first reported in "30-Oct-10 News -- Caucasus terrorism / politics becomes embroiled in 2014 Olympics", the region around Sochi used to be the home of ethnic Circassians. But they were slaughtered and driven out of Sochi by the Russians in a generational crisis war that climaxed in a massive genocidal battle in 1864. And that makes 2014 the 150th anniversary of that climactic battle. In the two years since I first reported on it, the Circassian situation has gone from an obscure little known problem to a major issue facing the 2014 Olympics. Earlier this week, Circassian activists around the world commemorated the 148th anniversary of the end of the Russian-Circassian war in 1864. Russian officials are now being forced to address Circassian grievances. Even worse for Russia, the Circassians are being given vocal support by Georgia, whose officials are extremely pissed off at Russia for its invasion of Georgia in 2008, causing the secession of the formerly Georgian provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Jamestown
The 12,000 public toilets in Beijing, China, have long been a source of complaints from tourists and residents alike, but now the Chinese have found a solution: A new municipal ordinance makes it illegal for more than two flies to be buzzing around any public toilet. China Daily
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 24-May-12 World View -- Russia's 2014 Olympics in Sochi threatened by Circassians
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(24-May-2012)
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The two faces of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Egypt will elect a new president on Wednesday and Thursday, in the country's first free election in history. There are 13 candidates, with ideologies spanning the range from liberal and secular to conservative and Islamist. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) military junta has been ruling Egypt since Hosni Mubarak was deposed in February of last year, and has promised to leave the government and return to barracks once a civilian government has been selected. Nonetheless, the complete transfer of power to a civilian administration – with an elected president following an elected parliament – will by no means guarantee the absence of the SCAF's intervention in politics, if and when the generals believe that their vested interests are threatened. But for the time being, the SCAF – on some level – has had no choice but to bow to the popular will, which demands free and transparent elections. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
Hosni Mubarak, the deposed president of Egypt, was a three-decade partner -- if not exactly an ally -- of Israel, cooperating on everything from security around the Gaza Strip to the sale of natural gas. Now there's going to be a new president, and of the major candidates, two are Islamists, associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, and two are former high officials in the Mubarak regime. Although all the leading candidates make criticisms of Isarel a key plank in their campaign platforms, Israel would most prefer Ahmed Shafiq, a former fighter pilot, and a prime minister for Mubarak, who has expressed a willingness to work with Israel. Second most hoped for would be Amr Moussa (the favorite, according to polls), Mubarak’s foreign minister in the 1990s before moving to head the Arab League. He was a vocal critic of Israel in both posts, but he classifies Israel as an "adversary," not an "enemy." Jerusalem Post
Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood has about 600,000 members today. Its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), became the strongest party in the Egyptian parliament last winter. It's being pulled in two directions, mostly along generational lines. The Brotherhood declared itself to be a non-violent movement in the 1970s, so a big majority of Egyptians have never known a violent Brotherhood. On the other hand, there are some old geezers near the top of the hierarchy who long for their old glory days of fighting the Jews, and would like to see it happen again. With regard to domestic policy, the FJP is a conservative Islamist party, but even here its membership is split over such Sharia law issues as whether all women should have to wear burqas in public. Spiegel
When the Egyptian revolution began in January, 2011, many people expressed the opinion that the Muslim Brotherhood was going to come to power and foment an Islamic revolution like the one that occurred in Iran in 1979. Many web site readers took strong exception to my Generational Dynamics analysis that said that nothing of the sort could possibly happen, and it's even very unlikely that Egypt would abrogate its peace treaty with Israel. (See "14-Feb-11 News -- Reader questions about Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood" for a summary.) Now, on the eve of Egypt's first free presidential election in history, I have no reason to change that Generational Dynamics analysis. That's not to say that there won't be harsh political clashes between Israel and Egypt, but that's a long way from the idea that Egypt will become another Iran and declare war on Israel, as some people have said they expect.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 23-May-12 World View -- Egypt prepares for historic presidential election
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(23-May-2012)
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Suicide bomber creates scene of massive carnage in Yemen
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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As Nato continues with its planned pullout of forces from Afghanistan in 2014, central Asian countries are fortifying their boundaries, sometimes with the help of the U.S., who wish to prevent central Asian insurgents from returning to their homelands. American forces are helping Kyrgyzstan fortify its southern border with Tajikistan. Russia is raising concerns that the U.S. is planning to establish a permanent American troop presence, but seems to be willing to take America's word that there is no such plan. As all five central Asian republics prepare for increasing security challenges emanating from Afghanistan, their natural inclination has been to strengthen border security. Both the Pentagon and the Kremlin have found roles for themselves in the interim, and have managed not to encroach too egregiously on each other’s short-term interests. Whether their interests in strengthening the region’s internal security remain aligned after the NATO withdrawal is an open question. Jamestown
Since Greece's May 6 election failed to produce a viable government, Greece is heading to the polls again on June 17, where the winner is now expected to the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), led by Alexis Tsipras, 38, who is promising to end all austerity measures and return to free spending. He claims that Europeans are only bluffing when they say that they will no longer help Greece, since they have no choice. And indeed, French and German banks are heavily invested in toxic Greek bonds, and will have to be bailed out themselves unless Greece continues to be bailed out. Although the official position of the eurozone countries is that they're not talking about a Greek exit from the eurozone, leaks from a closed door meeting of Finance Ministers last week in Brussels indicate that they're very close to doing just that. "If we now held a secret vote about Greece staying in the euro zone," Euro Group Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker warned his Greek colleague last week, "there would be an overwhelming majority against it." Indeed, they blame Greece for being the cause of Europe's financial crisis (forgetting many things, such as Spain's huge real estate bubble that's now collapsing), and are not willing to bail out Greece any more unless the austerity commitments are followed. Spiegel
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she won’t shy away from clashing with French President François Hollande at a European Union summit on Wednesday that's the next attempt to stem the debt crisis. Hollande wants the entire eurozone to bail out France's banks with "eurobonds," which would be bonds guaranteed jointly by all 17 eurozone nations. Merkel opposes joint debt issuance, saying the differences in bond yields [interest rates] between euro countries are incentives for weaker nations to overhaul their economies and boost competitiveness. Bloomberg
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Greece's tourism industry has been hit hard by the political turmoil following the May 6 election, and the growing speculation about Greece leaving the euro zone, with bookings down 50%. Germans are particularly deterred by shocking news footing showing demonstrators in Athens burning German flags or carrying placards depicting Merkel in a Nazi uniform. However, tourism should pick up again if Greece leaves the euro, since the new Greek drachma currency is expected to be sharply depreciated against the euro. Spiegel
A Yemeni soldier in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, detonated a bomb hidden in his military uniform during a rehearsal for a military parade on Monday, creating mass carnage, with 96 dead and hundreds wounded, in one of the deadliest attacks in the capital in years. The attack is thought to have been perpetrated by Al-Qaeda on the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), whose forces in southern Yemen have been under attack by Yemen's armed forces, aided by American special forces. AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 22-May-12 World View -- Anti-German sentiment in Greece shuts down tourist industry
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(22-May-2012)
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Pakistan and U.S. haggle over supply routes to Afghanistan
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Lebanon's government has been officially neutral about the violence in neighboring Syria, but Prime Minister Najeeb Miqati is part of Hizbollah's "March 8 Alliance" that is supporting the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Still, Lebanon has largely avoided Syria's violence up until last week, even though Syrian refugees have been coming across the border and finding a safe haven in the Sunni neighborhoods of northern Lebanon. However, violence has been growing in Lebanon in recent days, to the point that several Gulf Arab countries (UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar) have issued travel advisories for their citizens to avoid visiting or staying in Lebanon. In some cases, it's feared that Gulf Arab citizens could be kidnapped and handed over to the Syrian regime as alleged elements from Al Qaeda. This fear comes from a Syrian official's statement last week that Lebanon is "incubating" terrorists:
"In some areas (of Lebanon) ... warehouses have been set up for weapons and ammunition that is arriving to Lebanon illegally, either by sea, or sometimes through using the planes of specific countries to transport weapons to Lebanon and then smuggle them to Syria, under the excuse that they (aircraft) are carrying humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees."
The turmoil increased further yesterday when army troops, who are thought to be siding with the Syrian regime, shot dead a Sunni cleric in northern Lebanon. PM Miqati appealed for calm in the wake of the cleric's killing. Gulf News and Reuters
We've been reporting about increasingly nationalistic trends in one country after another -- Greece, Denmark and China, for example. Now add Israel to the list. A new poll shows a surge in strength for the nationalistic parties National Union and Jewish Home. Generally speaking, these parties support increased building of Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and they reject any peace treaties with the Palestinians. Increased nationalism is characteristic of generational Crisis eras, as the world approaches the Clash of Civilizations world war. Israel National News
Pakistan closed border routes to Afghanistan last November, when an American air strike targeting Taliban militants erroneously killed 24 Pakistani soldiers, and America refused to make an explicit apology. Afghanistan is a land-locked country, and with the routes through Pakistan closed, Nato has been forced to rely on cargo flights and a more costly northern route through Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus. Pakistan appears finally willing to open the border routes again, but they want to charge $5,000 per truck. In the past, Nato paid $250 per truck. The U.S. is categorically rejecting the higher fee, but perhaps they'll have a meeting of the minds as the haggling continues. AFP
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(21-May-2012)
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Three 'Occupy' protesters face terrorism charges
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
Yemen is the location of the headquarters of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), the terrorist organization most dangerous to the U.S. and the West in the world. AQAP has taken from the original al-Qaeda in Pakistan the mantle of greatest jihadist organization in the world. For the last year, the violent Arab Spring protests have been so chaotic that AQAP has made advances in controlling parts of Yemen, especialy in the south, and for a while there was concern that AQAP would advance on the capital city, Sanaa. Now there's a new president and an improved constitutional order, but terrorist activity has been growing in the country. As a result, an increased but limited number of U.S. troops are returning to Yemen to assist Yemeni forces. U.S. forces are helping Yemenis with intelligence, including satellite imagery, pictures from drones and other means to help them locate targets. However, there are no plans for sending U.S. ground forces. VOA
The rising violence of Bedouin tribes in the Sinai is presenting an increasing danger to both Israel and Egypt. The hostility arises from 90% unemployment among the Bedouin population, and discriminatory Egyptian laws that prevent many kinds of employment. The Sinai is the region of Egypt adjoining the Israeli border and also the Hamas-governed Gaza Strip. The 1979 Israel-Egypt peace treaty prohibits deployment of more than a token number of Egyptian security forces in the Sinai. There is an international peacekeeping force in the Sinai, but the Sinai has become almost completely lawless, and both the peacekeepers and the Egyptian security forces are under constant attack. Even worse, there has been a flow of modern weapons into the Sinai from unprotected stockpiles that were raided after the war in Libya, and there have been some rocket attacks on Israel. Jamestown
The Obama administration has ordered extremely high tariffs of 31% to 250% on solar panels imported from China, a move that's certain to result in retaliatory measures from the Chinese. In just a few years, some 60 Chinese manufacturing firms have grabbed about half of the U.S. market for solar panels. The administration's charge is that China has been "dumping" solar panels on the United States -- that is, subsidizing their manufacture so that they can be sold at below fair market value. (I have difficulty understanding this -- Wasn't the whole Solyndra scandal about Washington also subsidizing the manufacture of solar panels?) Not surprisingly, the aggressive tariffs have generated controversy even among American firms. Manufacturers of solar panels are pleased, but companies that import solar panels and install them are distraught. The tariffs apply specifically to Chinese-made solar cells, which are components of solar panels. Chinese solar energy companies could avoid the tariffs by shifting production of solar cells to nearby countries, then bringing those cells to China for assembly into panels. LA Times
Three members of the 'Occupy' activist movement have been arrested and charged with terrorist activities in Chicago, for allegedly planning to bomb the the residence of mayor Rahm Emanuel and Obama’s campaign headquarters during the upcoming Nato summit. This is another sign of increasing left-wing violence, in Europe and America, as the global financial crisis worsens. Washington Post
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see the 20-May-12 World View -- Tariffs on China's solar panels threaten a trade war
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(20-May-2012)
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Aleppo, Syria's largest city, suddenly turns on Assad
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Despite over a year of massive slaughter of innocent Arab citizens by the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, there were widespread anti-government protests in cities across the country on Friday. Most significant were the student protests at Aleppo University. Aleppo has been relative free of protests in the past, because a lot of the population are Alawites, which is al-Assad's ethnic group, and because the city has continued to be relatively prosperous as a result of generous benefits bestowed by the regime. But as we reported two weeks ago, there was a demonstration by Aleppo University students, and the regime's response was a massive slaughter by security forces, who stormed the university, breaking down doors and using machine guns and rifles against students. Besides everything else, this shows the utter stupidity of al-Assad, because this action has backfired, and turned Aleppo against him, and triggered many protests across the country in sympathy with Aleppo University students. Day Press News (Syria)
The two suicide car bombs in Damascus on May 10 were an alarming development. Before last December, suicide bombs were unheard of in Syria. Now there have been 10 such attacks, becoming increasingly deadly — 55 died in the latest atrocity; and another attack was thwarted in Aleppo, where a suicide bomber in a carwash killed five on May 5. It's unlikely that either the regime or the opposition carried out these atrocities. Most likely, the al-Qaeda linked group Al-Nusra ("Victory") carried out the bombings. Islamists are taking advantage of the chaos, which is being fed by arms to the opposition by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and arms to the regime by Iran and Russia. Gulf News
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We've reported several times in the past about the chaotic conquest of northern Mali by Tuareg rebels, and the resulting attack by al-Qaeda linked Ansar al-Dine on the northern city of Timbuktu. ( "4-Apr-12 World View -- Timbuktu's ancient history at risk over chaotic Mali rebellion") Timbuktu is a city of enormous historic importance to the Sufi branch of Islam. It's home to many Sufi shrines, as well as to nearly 100,000 ancient manuscripts, some dating to the 12th century, preserved in family homes and private libraries under the care of religious scholars. Ansar al-Dine terrorists have begun destroying Sufi shrines, and are collecting the ancient manuscripts, intending them for destruction. This is part of a growing pattern of destruction of Sufi shrines, monuments and documents by al-Qaeda linked Sunni Islamist terrorists. Terrorist acts targeting Sufis have occurred in Spain, Egypt, Somalia, Pakistan, and elsewhere. Jamestown
Many Westerners see Muslims as a monolithic group opposed to the West, but in fact the major feature of Islam today is the growing belligerence between Sunni and "apostate" Muslims, including Shia Muslims and adherents to other branches of Islam. This rising conflict is manifested in many ways:
The Sunni versus Shia conflict, of which most Americans are totally unaware, is the principal factor in Mideast geopolitics. As I've been writing for years, my expectation is that the coming Clash of Civilizations World War will pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni nations against India, Russia, Iran, and the West, including Israel. Reuters and Syria Comment
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
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(19-May-2012)
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U.S. is aiding supplying of weapons to Syria's rebels
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Valérie Trierweiler, the 'partner' of France's new president François Hollande, is moving to distinguish herself from her predecessor Carla Bruni, the supermodel/singer wife of Nicolas Sarkozy. Trierweiler is bringing back the traditional French music, like Edith Piaf's La Vie en Rose, as well as the accordion. Trierweiler claims to be better placed than Bruni to handle the workings of power. "I am and remain passionate about news. I know politics, I know the media. Bruni came from a world totally alien to that of politics. She didn't necessarily know the codes," she said. Guardian
Azerbaijan recently completed large-scale military exercises in the Caspian Sea, involving around 1,200 servicemen, 21 ships, 20 speedboats as well as eight helicopters. Although Azerbaijan is claiming that the purpose of the exercises is to protect Azeri assets from terrorists, the huge scale of the exercises implies that they're really targeted at countering military buildups by Iran and Russia. Jamestown
According to China's fishery authorities, China has imposed a 2½ month fishing ban in the South China Sea, "as part of ongoing efforts to rehabilitate the area's marine resources." The ban runs from May 16 to August 1. Violators will face punishments such as fines, license revocations, confiscations and possible criminal charges. Also, all fishing boats are required to have activated positioning equipment so they will not accidentally enter banned areas. Xinhua
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Vietnam's Foreign Ministry has protested China's fishing ban: "Vietnam opposes this unilateral decision by China and views it as an invalid one." China is imposing the ban pursuant to its claim to have full sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including areas historically belonging to other countries. ( "13-May-12 World View -- China denies preparing for war with the Philippines") A group of Vietnamese fisherman have set sail to defy China's fishing ban. One of the fishermen was among 20 Vietnamese fishermen previously kidnapped by the Chinese for violating an earlier fishing ban. "Whatever orders the Chinese government wants to give, they can go ahead, but we are not scared of them," he said. Radio Free Asia
As my mother used to say, what's good for the goose is good for the gander. The North Koreans have kidnapped 29 Chinese fisherman in three fishing boats, and demanded $190,000 for their release. It's not clear whether the North Korean government authorized the captures. According to a person who has spoken with the captors, "If the kidnappers don't get the money by [Thursday], they will sell off the boats, which are worth 3 million yuan (U.S. $473,000)." Radio Free Asia / AFP
Obama administration officials now believe that an expanding military confrontation in Syria is inevitable, and is coordinating the effort to supply arms to the rebels. According to one State Dept. official:
"We are increasing our nonlethal assistance to the Syrian opposition, and we continue to coordinate our efforts with friends and allies in the region and beyond in order to have the biggest impact on what we are collectively doing."
The flow of arms to Syria's rebels has increased significantly in recent months after a decision by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other gulf states to provide millions of dollars in funding each month. Administration officials also held talks in Washington this week with a delegation of Kurds from sparsely populated eastern Syria, where little violence has occurred. The talks included discussion of what one U.S. official said remained the “theoretical” possibility of opening a second front against Bashar al-Assad’s forces that would compel him to move resources from the west. Washington Post
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been relatively calm in recent months, thanks to the crisis in Syria, but a new controversy is causing disputes to flare again. Turkey is demanding an explanation from Israel on Thursday for violating Turkish Cypriot airspace by an Israeli plane that was chased away by Turkish fighter jets. Turkey and Greece fought a bitter war in Cyprus in 1974, resulting in a partition of the island into Greek and Turkish regions. Tensions flared in 2010 over an Israeli-Greek Cypriot deal for oil and gas explorations around Cyprus. The ownership of the gas and oil is disputed, and Turkey is accusing Israel of violating Turkish Cypriot airspace in order to spy on Turkey's oil and gas exploration efforts. Zaman (Istanbul)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 18-May-12 World View -- Today's Schadenfreude: North Koreans kidnap 29 Chinese fishermen
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(18-May-2012)
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Cocksure Serb general Ratko Mladic faces genocide trial
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Greece will hold new elections on June 17, being described as a referendum to answer the question: Should Greece remain in the eurozone, or should Greece return to its old currency, the drachma. Alexis Tsipras, 38, leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) party, which took second place in the May 6 elections, is demanding that Greece repudiate the austerity commitments it gave to Europe in return for several large bailout payments, and promises of more. European leaders have said that if Greece abandons its austerity commitments, then it won't receive any more bailout payments, and it will have to leave the euro currency. Tsipras has made several comments to the effect that Europe CAN'T refuse more bailout payments to Greece because Greece, like banks such as Citibank and JP Morgan, is too big to fail. He may have a good point, in that many European banks, including those in France and Germany, have invested heavily in Greece, and would be in serious financial trouble themselves. Antonis Samaras, leader of the mainstream New Democracy party that is committed to the austerity program, said:
"The Greek people have two paths ahead of them: One is to change everything in Greece, within a Europe that is also changing. The other is to live the terror of exiting the euro, the terror of isolation, out of Europe, and the collapse of everything we have made until today."
Tsipras is essentially blackmailing Europe Kathimerini
Many people are concerned about the rise of extreme left and right parties in the recent May 6 Greek elections. The far left KKE (Communist Party of Greece) is rising because of demands, led by labor unions, to maintain high levels of government spending, as well as generous salaries, benefits and pensions for public sector employees. The far right neo-Nazi Chrysi Avgi ("Golden Dawn") is winning adherents because of anxieties over the flood of illegal immigrants coming into Greece. In a Sunday interview, Chrysi Avgi party leader Nikos Michaloliakos, 55, said that the Holocaust never occurred:
"There were no ovens -- it's a lie. I believe it's a lie. There were no gas chambers either."
Government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis responded:
"I condemn these views in the strongest terms,» he said. «The Greek people have not forgotten that they too mourned the death of hundreds of thousands of people who were victims of the Nazis, among them tens of thousands of Greek Jews. We honor their memory and stand against any attempt to falsify facts and revive intolerance."
A few people have asked me in the last few months whether I think that a new Hitler-like figure might rise in Greece. My response has been that I don't think that it's going to happen in Greece, but that it may well happen in one of the 27 countries of the European Union, as the financial crisis deepens. Kathimerini
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Greece "officially" turned into a "crisis" when its 10-year bond yields (the interest rates that investors are demanding to lend money to Greece for 10 years) went above 7%. Spain hasn't quite reached that point yet, but it's trending in that direction, as bond yields temporarily reached 6.5% yesterday. The adjoining graph is really dramatic, as it shows the "bond spreads" between Germany and Spain. Very often, a TV financial pundit will say something like "Spanish spreads are increasing," without explaining it. What they mean is that the difference in yields (interest rates) between Spain's bonds and Germany's bonds has been increasing. The bottom line of what this means is that investors are afraid that Spain will default, just like Greece, and so they're pulling money out of Spain and pouring it into Germany, where it's considered to be safe. The spreads decreased for several months, starting in December of last year, when the European Central Bank (ECB) "printed" over €1.1 trillion euros and made it available to banks to use to purchase such things as Spain's bonds. However, the ECB program ended in March, and Spain's bond spreads have been surging since then. As a result, a number of officials are demanding that the ECB start a new money-printing program. Bloomberg
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Cocksure Bosnian Serb general Ratko Mladic taunted genocide survivors by making a throat-slitting gesture to a woman who lost her son, husband and brothers in the Srebenica massacre at the start of his trial on Wednesday for some of the worst atrocities in Europe since World War Two. At least 8,300 Bosniak (Bosnian Muslim) men and boys who had sought safe haven at the U.N.-protected enclave at Srebrenica were killed by Orthodox Christian Serbs under the leadership of General Ratko Mladic. (See "27-May-11 News -- Europe cheers the capture of Ratko Mladic, the butcher of Srebrenica") Mladic is still considered a hero by many Serbs, say that no crime was committed, as he was just defending Serbs. Mladic coined the phrase "ethnic cleansing" in the early 1990s to describe his program of extermination of the Bosniaks. Reuters
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(17-May-2012)
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China increasingly resembles late 1930s Nazi Germany
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
I will be out of town for a couple of days. World View will resume on Thursday. I request of world leaders that they not make any major news until then.
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After demonstrations by hundreds of people in front of the Chinese embassy in Manila, China has warned the Philippines not to allow harm to come to Chinese nationals in the Philippines. China has also ordered travel agencies to suspend travel services to the Philippines. Xinhua
On Friday, the following news story appeared in the state-run Xinhua news service:
"The PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China, on Thursday warned the Philippines about the Huangyan Island incident, saying the country's armed forces will not allow anyone to take the sovereignty of the island away from China."We want to say that anyone's attempt to take away China's sovereignty over Huangyan Island will not be allowed by the Chinese government, people and armed forces," the newspaper said in a signed article titled "Don't Attempt to Take Away Half an Inch of China's Territory."
Instead, it is wise to give up such attempts and abide by international rules to gain the forgiveness of the Chinese people and the pardon of the international community.
China has exercised restraint on the Huangyan Island incident. "If one mistakes China's kindness for weakness and regards China as a 'paper dragon' as instigated by some onlookers, he is terribly wrong," the article added."
This statement led to excited rumors on Chinese internet sites that that the navy was preparing for war. So late on Friday, China's Defense Ministry issued a brief statement that it wasn't preparing for war:
"Reports that the Guangzhou military region, the South China Sea fleet and other units have entered a state of war preparedness are untrue."
A dispute last month over fishing rights at Scarborough Shoal (called Huangyan Island by the Chinese) was the event that triggered the confrontation between China and the Philippines, and led to China's threats of war. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) has asked China to submit the dispute to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS). China has refused, claiming that its sovereignty over the island is an "indisputable fact," and that submitting the dispute to ITLOS would only "complicate the situation." China News Agency
The Philippines used to be an American colony, but there was a complete break in 1992, when America was forced to close its Subic Bay naval base and Clark Air Base. But China's increasing warlike belligerence is causing the two countries to move closer together again. The Philippines' navy is decrepit, but the U.S. is trying to help. The U.S. last year supplied a 45-year-old Coast Guard cutter to the Philippines, and plans to send a second one this fall. Also, the U.S. is helping the Philippines develop its "Coast Watch" system - a network of about 20 radar stations tied to a central database in Luzon that is meant to help the island nation monitor its whole coastline. AP
I'm no maritime lawyer, but everything I've read outside of China indicates that Scarborough Shoal is Philippines territory. As one web site reader put it, "Scarborough Shoal is near the main Philippine island of Luzon. If China claims it -- it is basically claiming the entire Philippines coastline."
And China itself must know this. Otherwise they would be willing to have the dispute settled by the appropriate international tribunal, and they wouldn't be issuing repeated threats of war. Furthermore, if this were the only dispute in the region, one might be willing to believe that there was an honest different of opinion. But China is similarly claiming, with similar threats of war, vast regions of the Pacific Ocean, as well as territory in central Asia. China knows very well that they might win some of these cases in a lawful tribunal, but would lose others, but they want everything, and are willing to use vastly superior military force to get it.
China's warning to the Philippines to protect China's nationals is also ominous. China will be looking for a pretext to use military force. Sooner or later, some Chinese citizen will be hurt, and that will provide the pretext China needs for a military invasion.
Here's one online description of the Nazi invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1938:
"Nazi leader Adolf Hitler's pretext for this effort was the alleged privations suffered by the ethnic German population living in those regions. New and extensive Czechoslovak border fortifications were also located in the same area.Following the Anschluss of Nazi Germany and Austria, in March 1938, the conquest of Czechoslovakia became Hitler's next ambition. The incorporation of the Sudetenland into Nazi Germany left the rest of Czechoslovakia weak and it became powerless to resist subsequent occupation. On 16 March 1939, the German Wehrmacht moved into the remainder of Czechoslovakia and, from Prague Castle, Hitler proclaimed Bohemia and Moravia the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia. The occupation ended with the surrender of Germany following World War II."
The West did not have to will to fight Nazi Germany after the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and instead "appeased" Germany, receiving the now famous promise from Hitler of "peace in our time." It was only when the Nazis invaded Poland in 1939 that Britain reluctantly realized that it had no choice but to go to war. And America stayed out of the war for another two years, until the bombing of Pearl Harbor.
China is looking more and more like Nazi Germany every day. Right now, it's beginning to look like the Philippines will be China's first military target, though obviously that could change. Would a Chinese invasion of the Philippines trigger a military response from America? It's hard to say, but it's quite possible that an appeasement strategy would be used. But if that strategy were used, it would be used only once. A Chinese attack on Taiwan or Japan would come soon after that, and then America would be forced into a full scale crisis war, whether it wanted it or not.
Today's top leadership -- Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao -- would not want this to happen. But they're in their last days now. Within months, a younger, far more dangerous and highly nationalistic generation, similar to America's Generation-X, will be taking over. And like Germany's Lost Generation of the 1930s, China's new leadership will not hesitate to use China's vast and growing military power to create a new Holocaust and World War. Many of them will live to regret their decisions, just as many Nazi survivors did, but only after a few hundred million people have been killed.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 13-May-12 World View -- China denies preparing for war with the Philippines
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-May-2012)
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Spain follows Greece into crisis, as Bankia bank is nationalized
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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For a while, some people thought that Greece's political leaders might come up with a deal on Friday to form a new government from the wreckage of last week's elections, where numerous splinter parties got almost as many votes as the two major parties. But in the end, Alexis Tsipras, 38, leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), refused to make any deal that would allow EU-imposed austerity measures to continue:
"I want to stress that the rejection of this offer is not being given by me or by SYRIZA but by the Greek people and their vote on Sunday.The [austerity] memorandum has been rejected by the Greek people. No government has the right to apply it. The issue is the austerity measures the Greek people have suffered for two years."
There will be new attempts to form a government in the next couple of days, and if they fail, then there will be new elections in June. Tsipras has stated that he expects his Syriza party to receive a lot more votes in the June elections. EU leaders have said that if Greece abandons the austerity program, then they will not receive any more bailout money. It ought to be interesting. Kathimerini
Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has previously said that Spain's banks are doing fine, and need no bailout. That was until earlier this week, when he flip-flopped and said that Bankia, the country's fourth-largest bank, would need a bailout, and that details would be announced on Friday. Then he changed his mind again late on Wednesday, and said that Bankia would be nationalized.
The take-away from the sordid little incident is that it shows, once again, that politicians openly lie, and are not punished for it, in the current culture of fraud and extortion. Lots of people have been aware for years that Spain's real estate bubble in the mid-2000s decade was enormous, and that it's deflating rapidly. It's currently estimated that Spain's cajas (banks) are saddled with $233 billion in troubled mortgage loans -- loans that they carry on their books as assets, but which will never be paid back. Spain's banks are among the worst problems in the eurozone, as Spain's economy follows Greece's down the drain. Spiegel
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The international community is raising alarms that al-Qaeda poses, as Al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) moves rapidly to take control of northern Mali and establish a safe haven there, along with its terrorist ally, Ansar al-Din. Hundreds of militants from Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, and northern Africa have been flocking to Timbuktu, Kidal and Gao to join al-Qaeda brigades. In order to win the hearts of the local population, militants have been storming food stores, stealing the food, and distributing it to displaced people. One livestock trader quoted them as saying, "We're your neighbours and our goal is to raise the word of Allah alongside our brothers." Magharebia
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 12-May-12 World View -- Al-Qaeda establishes a safe haven in northern Mali
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(12-May-2012)
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Syria suicide bombs may be linked to al-Qaeda's 'al-Nusra Battlefront'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Twin suicide car bombs exploded outside a military intelligence building and killed 55 people and injuring hundreds Thursday in Damascus, the capital of Syria, in the deadliest attack against a regime target since the Syrian uprising began 14 months ago. The Bashar al-Assad regime blamed the opposition protesters for the terrorist act, although it's not clear what the protesters' motive would be, since it just makes them look bad. The opposition blames the regime, and that's actually credible, since the regime has already used bombs, tanks and missiles purchased from Russia to massacre thousands of unarmed Arab citizens, including women and children asleep in their homes. It would not be surprising if al-Assad purchased the bombs from Russia or Iran and paid the families of two young men $25,000 each in return for blowing themselves up on Thursday morning. Day Press News (Syria)
The Damascus attack was extremely well planned and executed, designed to do the maximum amount of damage and kill as many people as possible. The shadowy terrorist group "al-Nusra Battlefront" emerged in January and has since said it was behind previous car and truck bomb attacks, including the one in March on police HQ and Airforce Intelligence. This follows a message from al-Qaeda leader Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, the successor to Osama bin Laden, asking terrorists to support the opposition in Syria. During the Iraq war, terrorists from Syria came to Iraq to carry out jihad against Americans. The flow of terrorists may now be going in the opposite direction, into Syria. BBC
12,000 troops from 19 countries, mostly from the U.S., are undertaking a massive war game exercise called "Eager Lion 2012" in Jordan, near Syria's border, involving land, air, marine and special forces. Officials are denying that the exercises have anything to do with the crisis in Syria, and that the war games were planned three years ago. The purpose is to promote "cooperation and interoperability among participating forces, builds functional capacity, practices crisis management and enhances readiness." The military exercises will last until May 25. Media Line
Debka, a news source based on intelligence sources not available elsewhere, tells quite a different story. According to Debka, special forces units of the U.S., France, Britain, Canada, and other Nato members stand ready at all times to cross the border into Syria if this is deemed necessary. There is also a possibility, according to Debka, that Qatar and Saudi Arabia helped bring about Thursday's Damascus bombing, and that the two countries are providing tons of hardware to Syrian rebel groups. Debka
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A commentary in China's state-run media titled "Never test China's will to defend its own sovereignty" expresses contempt for Philippine people and leaders, and accuses them of "severely infringing China's sovereignty." The commentary comes out of a confrontation over an island (the Scarborough Shoal, or Huangyan Island) off the coast of Manila, and far from Chinese territory, that China is claiming as its sovereign territory. China is demanding control of vast regions of the South China Sea, including areas historically belonging to Brunei, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam, as well as to territories in central Asia, in a land grab reminiscent of Hitler's demand for "Lebensraum." In 2011, China appeared to be softening its rhetoric, calling for bilateral negotiations, but the latest incident has so infuriated the Chinese nationalists that the rhetoric has become extremely threatening. In the commentary, the Chinese use the code phrase "core interest" in the paragraph:
"China always adheres to friendly relationships with its neighbors. But territorial sovereignty is a core interest for China and there is no room for bargaining. Is there any country in the world that has not drawn clear lines to protect its territorial integrity?China has made every preparation to respond if the Philippines government clings obstinately to its wrong course."
I suppose that whoever wrote that paragraph is too stupid to understand that it makes the case for the Philippines, since the Philippines have the right to protect their own territorial integrity. At any rate, the phrase "core interest" is used by the Chinese with Taiwan and other issues over which the country is willing to go to war.
China is now making it clear that it will use its vast military power to take control of other people's territory, if the country owning the territory does not back down. China is doing the same with countries like Taiwan, Japan and India, all of which have mutual defense treaties with the United States. Xinhua
Relations between America and Pakistan have been going steadily downhill since May 2, 2011, when Navy Seals invaded Pakistan and killed Osama bin Laden, without even giving Pakistan's government or military any advance notice. Pakistan is angry and humiliated over that action, but even worse, the military is frightened of a repeat action: an invasion by American special forces to destroy Pakistan's nuclear capabilities. With America withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2014, Pakistan has no real incentive to improve relations, or to cooperate in the "war on terror." Pakistan is establishing closer relations with the Taliban and other jihadist groups, and has its own plans for Afghanistan after the Americans leave. Spiegel
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these developments are consistent with the expectation that the approaching Clash of Civilizations World War would pit China, Pakistan and the Sunni nations against America, India, Russia, Iran and the West.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 11-May-12 World View -- China threatens Philippines with military action
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-May-2012)
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Waves of immigrants are overwhelming Germany
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
China deploys oil rig as weapon to assert South China Sea claims
China has been aggressively asserting its claim to a huge region in the South China Sea, including many islands that have historically belonged to other countries. Now the Chinese are drilling oil in disputed waters as a "strategic weapon," according to an analyst reported by the state-run Xinhua:
"Large deep-water drilling rigs are our mobile national territory and strategic weapon for promoting the development of the country’s offshore oil industry."
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China hails a 'new era' for its oil industry
China is hailing the the new oil drilling venture in the disputed region of the South China Sea as a "new era for China's oil industry." The semi-submersible deepwater rig will drill for oil at a depth of 1,500 meters at its current location for 56 days, and then will move on to drill in other disputed regions of the South China Sea. It's expected that the rig will drill about five or six wells per year. China Daily
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He Jia, an anchor on China's state-run television network CCTV, said:
"As we all know, the Philippines is Chinese territory. China has unquestionable sovereignty over the Philippines.We all know that the Philippines is China's inherent territory and the Philippines belongs to Chinese sovereignty, this is an indisputable fact."
This gaffe is being described as an accidental slip of the tongue, but I don't think that's what happened at all. He Jia appears to be a young girl who's too dumb to find the Philippines on the map, and is just reflecting the ultra-nationalist attitudes of the younger generations of Chinese. Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a Clash of Civilizations world war, led by China and the United States. Telegraph
Chinese officials continue to be infuriated because they've been unable to exert complete dictatorial control over the internet, though they've tried just about everything possible to do so. The latest attempt is to issue "Community Management Regulations" that everyone has to follow, at risk of being thrown into a torture pit. Here's the announcement on the extremely popular blog site Sina Weibo:
"Dear netizens, in order to maintain order in the Weibo community, we are establishing open and transparent mechanisms to deal with violators of our regulations. Today we are issuing the “Sina Weibo Community Convention (Trial)”, along with the “Community Management Regulations (Trial)” and the “Community Committee System (Trial).” The above regulations will take effect on May 28th, 2012, at which time corresponding features will go live. Order is something that we all must work together to maintain."
Article 13 of the new regulations describe what's forbidden:
"In Article 13, the contract lists nearly ten kinds of information users are not allowed to publish on Weibo, including that “harms the unity, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of the nation” and that “spreads rumors, disrupts social order, and destroys societal stability.”[...]Article 13) Users have the right to publish information, but may not publish any information that:
1.Opposes the basic principles established by the constitution
2.Harms the unity, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of the nation
3.Reveals national secrets, endangers national security, or threatens the the honor or interests of the nation
4.Incites ethnic hatred or ethnic discrimination, undermines ethnic unity, or harms ethnic traditions and customs
5.Promotes evil teachings and superstitions
6.Spreads rumors, disrupts social order, and destroys societal stability
7.Promotes illicit activity, gambling, violence, or calls for the committing of crimes
8.Calls for disruption of social order through illegal gatherings, formation of organizations, protests, demonstrations, mass gatherings and assemblies
9.Has other content which is forbidden by laws, administrative regulations and national regulations."
Like the United States and other countries, China is embroiled in bitter political divisions, which became particularly apparent recently by the downfall of Bo Xilai, a charismatic rising political star. The turmoil is so great that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is considering a delay of the Communist Party Congress, normally held every five years, from September/October to December/January. According to one analyst:
"If the party congress were delayed, it's to (decide) how to deal with the legacy of Bo Xilai.It's like dinner being put off because cooking was abruptly disrupted and (the party) had to attend to other matters. Now it's back to cooking."
One purpose of the Congress is to appoint a new standing committee. A delay in the Congress will not delay the time when the members start in the new roles, in March of next year. Reuters
A flood of impoverished people from Bulgaria and Romania are streaming into Germany hoping to find a job, overwhelming the system. They're not illegal immigrants, since they're from EU countries. They often arrive in Germany penniless, and with no ability to speak or understand German. Ironically, they're worse off than illegal immigrants from north Africa and other non-European countries, since they can't be forced to attend language and integration courses that are offered free of charge to immigrants who hold non-European passports -- and if they voluntarily choose to do so, they are charged for the privilege. Spiegel
Pundits and faux economists have been wondering for years why the Fed's ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and quantitative easing have not led to hyperinflation. I've explained it in generational terms, but here's an interesting analysis of how QE actually contributes to deflation by creating a "negative money multiplier effect," because the Fed is competing with shadow banks that had previously provided liquidity, and which now are absorbing liquidity instead.
FT Alphaville Part 1 and Part 2
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 10-May-12 World View -- China drills for oil as 'strategic weapon' in South China Sea
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(10-May-2012)
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Nationalistic China increasingly threatens Philippines militarily
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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As the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad continues to treat his own Arab population as cockroaches to be exterminated, former United Nations secretary-general Kofi Annan continues to tout his six-point plan, which has theoretically been in place for several weeks now. On Tuesday, Annan told the U.N. Security Council that his peace plan may be the "last chance" to avoid full-scale civil war in Syria.
"The level of violence and abuses are unacceptable. ...I am sure I am not telling you any secret when I tell you that there is profound concern that the country could otherwise descend into full civil war and the implications of that are quite frightening. We cannot allow that to happen."
Annan appears to have abandoned his willingness to blame both the al-Assad regime and the opposition, and is now saying that al-Assad bears the "primary responsibility" for ending the violence. He said that torture, mass arrests and other human rights violations are "intensifying." AFP
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, there is absolutely no chance whatsoever that Syria will "descend into full civil war." Syria is in a generational Awakening era, and a full scale crisis civil war is impossible in any country in an Awakening era, or if a civil war begins during an Awakening era, then it fizzles within a few months. ("Basics of Generational Dynamics") So I don't expect the violence in Syria to get much worse than it is now, and probably will start to decrease. At some point, Annan will declare that he personally brought peace to Syria.
With the first place winner of Sunday's elections, Antonis Samaras of the conservative New Democracy party, having failed to form a government, the leader of Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA) Alexis Tsipras, is now trying to do the same:
"The expression of the public’s will has made the memorandum null and void and has chosen as its first alternative a left-wing government that will cancel the loan agreements."
The "memorandum" refers to the austerity agreement that Greece committed to following in return for receiving two large bailouts. Tsipras is trying to form an "anti-austerity" coalition that will reject the austerity commitments. However, it's considered unlikely that he will succeed. If he fails, then the PASOK party will take a shot, and if they fail, then Greece will have new elections in June. Kathimerini
It was widely believed on Tuesday that Greece is on the verge of a major new financial crisis. According to Tsipras, Greece has overwhelmingly voted to end the austerity commitment:
"The bailout parties no longer have a majority in parliament to vote for measures that plunder the country. There will be no 11 billion euros ($14 billion) of additional austerity measures; 150,000 jobs will not be cut."
However, a European Central Bank (ECB) executive said:
"Greece has to be aware that there is no alternative to the agreed consolidation program if it wants to remain a member of the euro zone."
There is absolutely no desire among the Germans to provide new bailout payments to Greece if Greece wants to use the money to continue excessive spending, which is what would happen if Greece abandoned its austerity commitments. Thus many analysts are saying that there's a major confrontation between Greece and the EU in play, and that it can only end in Greece leaving the eurozone, after the country goes bankrupt at the end of June. Bloomberg
Last year, in the midst of numerous European financial crises, I proposed the "Kick the Can Theory": European leaders will take the absolute minimum steps necessary to "kick the can down the road" -- that is, postpone the problem a little longer. Assuming that the Kick the Can Theory is true, what does it say about what will happen in the current Greece crisis?
One BBC analyst I heard on Tuesday said that the Greek public are having an "Omigod! What have we done??" moment. He said that when new elections are held in June, the Greek voters will return to the major parties that forged the austerity agreement. Then, on the EU side, the austerity demands will be reduced slightly, so that everyone can save face. The EU will provide the next bailout payment, the Greeks will try and fail to implement the austerity commitments, and the can will be kicked down the road for a few more months.
It's worth repeating, as I've been saying for years, that there IS NO solution to this problem. There was a huge real estate and credit bubble that lasted more than 12 years, and it will take more than 12 years for it to deflate. There is no way around that. Since no solution exists, politicians will continue to blame each other for the failure to find a solution.
One analogy that I've come across lately is what you do when you have toothache. If you go to the dentist right away, then you can have the cavity filled, and be on your way. But suppose instead of going to the dentist, you just take an aspirin or Tylenol to dull the pain. As the tooth worsens, you take stronger and stronger pain medications, finally working your way up to Codeine or Oxycodone or Morphine. By that time, your entire mouth is rotted out.
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The incident that began last month between China and the Philippines is continuing to simmer. Scarborough Shoal (called Huangyan Island by the Chinese), is just off the coast of Manila, and is very far away from any Chinese territory, but China is claiming it nonetheless as its sovereign territory, along with huge amounts of other countries' territory in the South China Sea and in central Asia, in a demand reminiscent of Hitler's demand for "Lebensraum." Last month, Chinese and Filipino military almost came to blows over fishing rights around Scarborough Shoal, and the confrontation is continuing. Filipino legislators are threatening to enact a boycott of Chinese goods, many local businesses are opposed, saying that they would lose more than the Chinese would. "We have to be realistic that we can't win it economically or militarily if we go head-to-head with China," according to one legislator.
Chinese media, on the other hand, are becoming increasingly extreme in expressing their contempt for Filipinos. China's state-run Global Times suggested that China "should select the most arrogant provocateur, conduct comprehensive strikes, and exert pressure economically, politically and militarily." A state-owned web site called for "decisive action" and said that China shouldn't abandon the idea of "war at all cost." Asia Times and VOA
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 9-May-12 World View -- Greece returns to full-scale fiscal crisis as new elections loom
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(9-May-2012)
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Greece may face new elections within weeks
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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This certainly has to count as one of the most spectacular political stunts of the 21st century so far. Vladimir Putin served two four-year terms as President of Russia, but was barred in 2008 by the constitution in running for a third consecutive term. So he arranged for Dmitry Medvedev to become President, while he became Prime Minister. He was accused of doing this by arrangement so that he could become president again in 2012, but he denied that there was any arrangement. In 2009, he arranged for the constitution to be amended so that the president serves for six-year terms. Then late last year he admitted that he'd been lying all along, and the whole thing was an arrangement, and he expected to become president again. There was a parliamentary election in December that was so fraudulent that it triggered massive violent protests. The recent presidential election was steeped in fraud as well. So on Monday, Vladimir Putin took office as President of Russia again, for a six-year term. Australian Broadcasting
On Sunday, there were violent clashes between police and demonstrators for the first time since rallies began in December, and smaller demonstrations on Monday as Russian police locked Moscow down. By Monday evening, 300 people had been detained, after 450 people had been detained on Sunday. Moscow Times
Vladimir Putin was inaugurated as President of Russia on Monday with all the usual ceremonial pomp and fanfar, but three events have marred the solemnity of the day and indicate that Putin's rule will be very difficult. First was the big opposition march on Sunday. Second was a sharp fall in Moscow stock exchange share prices on Friday. And the third was the most tragic one – two suicide explosions rocked Makhachkala, Dagestan on May 3, killing 14 people. Unrest and violence have been increasing in Russia's North Caucasus provinces, and Putin will be desperate to use bribery or any other device at his disposal for two more years so that Sochi will be safe to host the 2014 Winter Olympic Games. Jamestown
Prior to this year, Greece's two leading political parties, the conservative New Democracy and the center-left socialist PASOK, together took about 80% of the votes. In Sunday's election, they took only 35% of the votes, reflecting the fury of voters at the austerity measures that they've supported in return for the the EU bailouts. New Democracy, led by Antonis Samaras, got the most votes, 18.85%, and spent Monday knocking on doors trying to form a governing coalition. However, nobody wanted to join with Samaras, either because they want to try to form a left-wing coalition or because they refuse to endorse the austerity program. Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), led by Alexis Tsipras, came in second place with 16.78% of the vote, and so on Tuesday Tsipras will take a turn at trying to form a government composed of left-wing parties opposed to the austerity measures. However, the communist party (KKE) has already said they won't work with Tsipras, so a failure is likely there as well. Then it will be third-place PASOK's turn. If they fail as well, then there will be new elections in a few weeks. Either way, the Greek crisis will be continuing for a while. Kathimerini
Greece will certainly be an important agenda item when France's new president François Hollande meets German Chancellor Angela Merkel next week in Berlin. Hollande has softened his campaign demands to "renegotiate" the fiscal stability treaty that was signed by 25 of 27 EU nations in December, and will soon be subject to a referendum in Ireland. Instead, he's now talking about ADDING a "growth pact" to the treaty. Merkel has angrily ruled out any renegotiation, but has indicated a willingness to consider new fiscal and monetary policies that could promote growth. However, the bottom line is that she will not agree to any proposal that allows countries to borrow more money in order to boost spending. Irish Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 8-May-12 World View -- Putin becomes president of Russia again, facing harsh new challenges
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(8-May-2012)
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Turkey's Erdogan claims that victory of Syria's rebels is close
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The two parties that have ruled Greece for decades did more poorly than expected in Sunday's parliamentary elections, giving power to the far left and far right parties that are opposed to the austerity requirements of the recurring EU bailouts of Greece. The conservative New Democracy party, led by Antonis Samaras, won a plurality, but with only a meager 20% of the vote. The center-left socialist PASOK party took a big nosedive, receiving only 14% of the vote. It had been hoped that ND and PASOK would together have enough seats in parliament to form a governing coalition that would support the bailout terms, but that hope is very much in doubt now.
The big surprise was the Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA), led by Alexis Tsipras, with 16% of the vote. Tsipras has ruled out working with either ND or PASOK, and said he would try to form a coalition of left-wing parties to oppose the EU bailout terms.
Under Greek law, Samaras will have three days to try to form a governing coalitions, and if he fails, then Tsipras will try. Kathimerini
That Europeans are sick and tired of austerity, even in Germany, is clear from Sunday's elections. France threw out incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in favor of hope and change candidate François Hollande,, and Greece decimated both major parties. In Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat party appears likely to lose a regional election, continuing a pattern that may erode her chances of a third term next year. Merkel has invited Hollande to Berlin to discuss Hollande's campaign promise to reject the austerity of the "fiscal pact" made by European leaders in December, but Hollande appears to be softening his rhetoric, as he's now talking about simply "adding" to the pact. Reuters
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday announced his desire to hold early parliamentary elections, possibly in September. Elections are not required for a year and a half, but he said that political instability invariably leads to extortion and populism that harm security, the economy and society. "I will not allow a campaign of a year and a half that will harm the country," he said. Ynet
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited a camp for refugees who fled the violence in Syria, and said that the opposition in Syria is gaining more and more international support, and he vowed solidarity with the Syrian people:
"Your suffering is ours. Bashar [al-Assad] is losing support with every passing day.Your victory is close. … Never lose hope. … We are always with you. I also believe that God is with you, too."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 7-May-12 World View -- Austerity-weary Europeans 'throw the bums out!'
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(7-May-2012)
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Hollande's ultra-feminist 'companion' Valérie Trierweiler would be reluctant first lady
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Late polls show that incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy is narrowing the gap with his far left challenger François Hollande in France's presidential election on Sunday, but not enough for a win, so it's expected that Hollande will replace Sarkozy at the Élysée Palace. For two years, ever since it became clear that Greece's economy was going down the drain, European leaders have applied one band-aid -- bailouts, bond purchases, etc. -- after another to keep the entire European economy from following Greece's over the cliff. As each band-aid failed to solve the problem for more than a day or two, Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel led European leaders to agree to a "fiscal pact" that would provide further bailouts and bond purchases as needed, provided that countries receiving aid would practice "austerity" measures that would reduce deficits. Hollande has indicated that he would abandon austerity and renegotiate the fiscal compact, something that Merkel has already angrily rejected. Interest rates (yields) on France's bonds have been going up in recent weeks, as investors express fear that Hollande is going to push France deeper into debt, though for the time being they're waiting to see whether Hollande will move towards the center if he wins. Telegraph
On the one hand, she won't hesitate to slap a man who makes a remark that she considers sexist. On the other hand, she's been married twice before, and stole François Hollande away from his partner of 30 years and the mother of his four children, Ségolène Royal (who, incidentally, was Sarkozy's Socialist opponent in the 2007 election). Valérie Trierweiler is apparently not interested in marriage to her companion, and has rarely been seen in public with him on his campaign trips, telling reporters that they are not "campaigning as a couple." That makes her different from Carla Bruni, the glamorous supermodel whom Nicolas Sarkozy married while in office, shortly after divorcing his own wife. Stock & Land (Australia)
The conservative New Democracy party, led by Antonis Samaras, is expected to get the most votes in Sunday's general election in Greece. He has an uncompromising character, and his campaign uses nationalistic images, including Alexander the Great and the Byzantine church of Saint Sophia in Istanbul. But it's very unlikely that it will score an outright victory, with far right splinter groups stealing votes from him. As a result, he'll have to form a governing coalition with the Socialist PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos. Despite the polls, an unprecedented number of undecided voters make the result impossible to predict. Reuters
Friday's parliamentary elections in Iran showed strong support for the country's religious leadership, and a new humiliation for president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has fallen out of favor with the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in recent years. The strong showing for the religious leadership is also being seen as an endorsement of the government's hard line on continuing nuclear development. Tensions have been rising in Israel over Iran's nuclear program, and there's a possibility that Israel will launch an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities this summer, while the U.S. presidential campaign is ongoing, and Israel would presumably be safe from U.S. criticism for the attack. (Paragraph corrected, 6-May) AP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 6-May-12 World View -- Elections in France, Greece and Iran affect world events thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments
may be posted anonymously.)
(6-May-2012)
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Germans on trial for activities in the 'Deutsche Taliban Mujahideen'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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Thousands of protesters crowded into Tahrir square in Cairo Egypt on Friday to protest the killing of eleven protesters on Wednesday, and to demand that the Supreme Council for Armed Forces (SCAF), the military junta that's been ruling Egypt since the fall of Hosni Mubarak, step down and turn the government over to civilians. However, their final object was to be a week-long sit-in at the Ministry of Defense in Abbasiya, the army launched a bloody confrontation with protesters. Up to 20 people were killed, and 373 other injured. Al-Ahram
Egypt's Army is continuing to insist that SCAF will step down as planned, turning the government over to civilian control, despite the clashes on Wednesday and Friday. Presidential elections are scheduled for May 23 and 24 and a run-off for June 16 and 17 if there is no outright winner in the first round. According to an Army spokesman on Friday,
"We say it frankly and clearly. The armed forces and their supreme council are committed to the handover of power on June 30. We don't desire power. The Supreme Council is not a substitute for legitimacy in Egypt."
Egyptian Gazette and Al-Jazeera
Egypt's government needs to reduce its $12 billion deficit in order to qualify for a planned $3.2 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Furthermore, with Egypt in political chaos, the IMF is demanding that all political parties endorse the government's budget, so that it will survive the election. Egypt's receipt of the IMF loan became more doubtful last week, when Egypt’s parliament strongly rejected the army-led Cabinet’s plan to cut state spending and avoid a financial crisis. Al-Arabiya
Two criminal trials of three jihadists currently underway in Germany show the routes that German jihadists have taken to work with al-Qaeda. Two al-Qaeda linked organizations in Pakistan played a major part. One is the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), which provided initial training of the Germans. The other was the Deutsche Taliban Mujahideen (DTM), an offshoot of the Islamic Jihad Union formed specifically to handle the large numbers of young German extremists who went to Pakistan to become terrorists. By mid-2010, the three jihadists were transferred to al-Qaeda for training. They were all to be sent back to Europe to raise funds and conduct suicide bombings, together with a network of Austrian recruits, before they were captured and put on trial. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 5-May-12 World View -- Hundreds of Egyptians injured as police storm Cairo rally
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(5-May-2012)
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Syrian troops massacre Aleppo University students in their sleep
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
For years, the conservative New Democracy party and the socialist PASOK party have led Greek politics, but with Greece's economy continuing to crash into oblivion, parties on the extreme left and right are gaining ground. Here's a summary of the latest poll results, with elections scheduled for Sunday:
Party Support (%)
------------------------------------------------ -------------
Conservative - Nea Dimokratia (New Democracy) 25.5
Socialists - PASOK (Panhellenic Socialist Movement) 19.1
Communists - KKE (Communist Party of Greece) 10.6 [#]
Left Coalition 9.1 [#]
Right-Wing Populists - Independent Greeks 7.7 [#]
Left - Democratic Left - 5.4 [#]
Far right - Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) 5.2 [#]
Right - LAOS (PopularOrthodox Rally) 4.0 [#]
Center-Right - Democratic Alliance 3.8
[#] Does not support the euro bailout terms Source: Kapa Research / Spiegel
In the 2009 election, ND got 33.5% of the vote, and PASOK got 43.9% of the vote. So the above figures represent substantial reductions.
Support for the major ND and PASOK parties has been falling, while the Communist Party and the Far right Golden Dawn party have gained substantially. The neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party is being very aggressive, with shaved heads, military uniforms, Nazi chants and Hitler greetings. They've threatened violence directed at immigrants and even journalists. There are now three outwardly xenophobic parties in Greece -- Golden Dawn, the anti-Semitic party LAOS, and Independent Greeks -- and together they could garner 20% of the vote on Sunday. Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party leads in the polls, but the winner, whoever he is, will have to deal with the far right to form a governing coalition. Der Spiegel
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New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras is toughening his language on illegal immigrants, calling them "tyrants" of Greek society, hoping to capture some of the votes that polls indicate will go to the far right parties Golden Dawn, LAOS, and Independent Greeks. He also blasted those three parties directly:
"They are water carriers for PASOK, they have nothing to offer, they simply put obstacles in the way of us achieving a strong popular mandate.It is shameful because they promise paradise with material from hell. They are devils. Isolate the Nazis. Political monsters like this should not exist in Greece or its Parliament."
The two major parties, ND and PASOK, agree on moving ahead with austerity plans required to continue to receive bailout money from the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, but most of the remaining parties are opposed to bailout austerity program. In some cases, they claim to want to abandon the euro currency and return to the old drachma currency. PASOK leader Evangelos Venizelos warned that this would be disastrous for Greece. "This works in favor of corruption and all those who took their money out of the country and are waiting to buy up everything if we return to the drachma," he said. Kathimerini
About 1,500 university students in the city of Aleppo in Syria held anti-government rallies on Wednesday. On Thursday night, President Bashar al-Assad's security forces stormed the university, breaking down doors and using machine guns and rifles against students. Four students were killed and dozens were arrested. Independent
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 4-May-12 World View -- Growth of far left and far right threatens Greece's stability
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(4-May-2012)
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Euro zone unemployment hits record high at 10.9%
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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The economy of the 17 eurozone countries continues to spiral downward, as a new report shows that unemployment hit a record high of 10.9% March, up from 9.9% a year ago. The euro zone now has more than 17 million people without jobs. Across the euro zone, 22.1% of young people under age 25 are now unemployed. In Greece and Spain, more than 50% are unemployed. What's really striking is the difference between the northern and southern countries. Joblessness was lowest in Austria, the Netherlands, Luxembourg and Germany, where unemployment was at 5.6%. LA Times
Israeli officials, led by prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are convinced that the time for Israel to attack Iran's nuclear facilities is during the U.S. presidential campaign, when neither candidate would risk losing by criticizing Israel. It's thought that not only would Republican challenger Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama refrain from chastening Israel, they might even compete in praising. Arnaud de Borchgrave
Beyond what I read in the papers, I have no personal knowledge of whether Rupert Murdoch is guilty of anything, but when I read that one political party in Britain said that Murdoch is "unfit" to run a major international business and the other political did not agree, then you can be pretty sure that some ideological scapegoating is going on. According to the evidence,
The story is very familiar these days. Some individual Gen-X employees believed that their Boomer and Silent management were buffoons, and too stupid to understand technology, and they decided to hack into politicians' phones because they were smarter than anyone else. The whole thing was covered up until it backfired and became public.
We've posted a number of stories like this before. The Gen-X banksters created "high tech" fraudulent high-tech securities, and sold them as AAA, lying to their Boomer bosses.
The difference between the two cases is that Murdoch was extensively investigated, since the politicians whose phones were hacked are furious. But no one wants to investigate the banksters who created the fraudulent securities since the politicians all get huge amounts of money from banksters.
I've been writing a lot about scapegoats lately.
No banksters have been investigated and prosecuted for the financial crisis, but Geir Haarde, the former prime minister of Iceland, was singled out and scapegoated for prosecution over the financial crisis, even though Gordon Brown and other politicians actively encouraged banksters to commit fraud.
And last week a U.N. war crimes tribunal convicted Liberia's former president Charles Taylor of war crimes for selling weapons to people in a war, as if that doesn't happen every day. Independent
The comedy act continues as United Nations officials continue to tout the Kofi Annan "peace plan" in Syria, which president Bashar al-Assad uses as a shield to allow him to continue to torture, massacre and slaughter innocent Arab citizens as if they were cockroaches. So now Human Rights Watch is accusing al-Assad of war crimes.
But wait a minute. Russia is supplying weapons to Syria for use in carrying out the war crimes. Why isn't Human Rights Watch also naming Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin as war criminals, based on the precedent of last week's conviction of Charles Taylor? LA Times
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 3-May-12 World View -- U.S. presidential campaign spurs Israel's attack on Iran
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-May-2012)
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Suicide bomber strikes in Kabul Afghanistan after Obama's speech
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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President Barack Obama gave a speech to the nation on Tuesday outlining the plans for withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The troops will be coming home "at a steady pace," and "by the end of 2014 the Afghans will be fully responsible for the security of their country." However, American and Nato troops will remain in Afghanistan for a decade " to train, advise and assist the Afghans, ... including shared commitments to combat terrorism and strengthen democratic institutions." He added, "But we will not build permanent bases in this country, nor will we be patrolling its cities and mountains. That will be the job of the Afghan people."
Part of his plan involves negotiations with the Taliban:
"Fourth, we’re pursuing a negotiated peace. In coordination with the Afghan government, my administration has been in direct discussions with the Taliban. We’ve made it clear that they can be a part of this future if they break with al Qaeda, renounce violence and abide by Afghan laws. Many members of the Taliban -- from foot soldiers to leaders -- have indicated an interest in reconciliation. The path to peace is now set before them. Those who refuse to walk it will face strong Afghan security forces, backed by the United States and our allies."
This part of his speech is a total joke. "We've made it clear," he says, that the Taliban have to "break with al-Qaeda" and "renounce violence." Oh really? Does he really believe that the Haqqani Network is going to agree to this? And what happens if the Taliban refuse to break with al-Qaeda? Will Obama then reverse his plans and move troops back into Afghanistan? WhiteHouse.gov
At least two explosions were heard in Afghanistan's capital Kabul on Wednesday shortly after President Barack Obama gave his speech outlining U.S. and Nato withdrawal from Afghanistan. One of those explosions was a suicide car bomb that struck the area near the American embassy and several foreign military bases. AFP
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Long-time readers may recall that in 2009 I asked readers to make a mental note of the Fergana Valley (or Ferghana Valley) in central Asia, because it is one of the most strategically important regions of the world, though almost totally unknown to Americans. The Fergana Valley sits at the intersection of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan, and at that time I was writing about the rise of the al-Qaeda linked Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), and about the importance of the Fergana Valley to the U.S. for Afghan war logistics. (See "Islamist Uzbeks lead terrorists in Pakistan and Afghanistan")
Then, in 2010, there was extremely bloody violence in the Fergana Valley on the Kyrgyzstan side of the border. The cities of Osh and Jalalabad were devastated, causing hundreds of deaths, thousands of injuries, and hundreds of thousands of refugees. Almost all of these were Uzbek victims of Kyrgyz violence, including violence by the Kyrgyz army. Some people blame Josef Stalin for the carnage because, in the 1920s and 1930s, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan were established as Soviet republics, and divided by arbitrary borders in the Fergana Valley. These arbitrary boundaries, which ignored ethnic realities, created the ethnic tensions and rivalries that are the basis of the current violence and atrocities that began occurring after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Now tensions are growing again in the region, especially in Osh, where highly nationalistic Kyrgyz government officials are openly targeting Uzbeks. Uzbeks are subject to illegal detentions, torture and abuse by security forces and have been forced out of public life. Most Uzbek-language media have been closed, and prominent nationalists often refer to them as a diaspora, emphasising their separate and subordinate status. International organisations report continuing persecution of Uzbeks by a rapaciously corrupt police and prosecutorial system. International Crisis Group
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Russia and China are holding joint military exercises in central Asia under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). All the central Asian states will be participating except Uzbekistan, who have opted out because of conflicts over water resources with Tajikistan. The military exercises, called "Peace Mission 2012," are occurring because of concerns in Russia and China that the Fergana Valley region will become increasingly unstable as the United States and Nato withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 2-May-12 World View -- Russia and China prepare for central Asia meltdown when U.S. pulls out
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-May-2012)
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German Right-wing activists plan 'Mohammed cartoon' contest ahead of May 13 election
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com.
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May 1 is Labor Day in France, and this one will be different from others because of the presidential elections scheduled for Sunday. Socialist party candidate François Hollande is expected to win on Sunday, defeating the incumbent center-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. May Day is usually a day for the Socialists and the Communists, but this time there will be competing rallies, causing one analyst to quip, "Choose your camp. The Berlin Wall has been rebuilt in the middle of Paris, just like in the good old days of the Cold War." Austerity is a major issue, as Hollande has promised to ignore previous austerity commitments, and Sarkozy is calling for a May 1 rally to celebrate "real work," in reference to what he said were people who preferred to collect unemployment benefits and state handouts rather than hard-earned wages. On the far right, anti-immigrant candidate Marine Le Pen is calling on "patriots" to assemble in Paris on May 1 to honor Joan of Arc, the French Catholic saint who led a battle to drive illegal immigrants (the English) out of France in 1429. France 24
Greece is deep into an economic and social crisis, and with Greece's voters totally disgusted with both major political parties, formerly obscure parties are hoping to gain seats in Parliament in Sunday's election. The ultra-nationalist Golden Dawn party is expecting to win seats in Sunday's election. According to one parliamentary candidate:
"We want all illegal immigrants out, we want to take their stench out of this place. They shouldn't be here and they will leave one way or the other - the good or the bad way."
Golden Dawn plans to start by expelling illegal immigrants, and then go on to legal ones. Golden Dawn's rhetoric resonates with Greeks who blame rising crime on the hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants entering the country through porous borders. Polls show that Golden Dawn could enter parliament with 5% of the vote, after getting only 0.23% in the last general election three years ago. Linked to racist, anti-immigrant attacks, Golden Dawn is set to become the most extreme right-wing party to sit in parliament since Greece returned to democracy after the fall of a military dictatorship in 1974. Reuters
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Residents are protesting against the new Amygdaleza detention center for illegal migrants that opened just northwest of Athens. A total of 1,200 migrants are to be moved into the center by mid-May. Then additional centers are to open in different parts of the country. About 130,000 immigrants cross the country's porous sea and land borders every year -- the vast majority via Turkey -- and the authorities are forced to release those who are arrested because of a lack of permanent housing. Released migrants then travel to other EU countries, causing those countries to demand that Greece do something to stop the flow. The government opened the first detention center just a week before Sunday's elections in the hope of defusing the popularity of the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party. Kathimerini
Pro-NRW, which has been categorized as an extremist right-wing group by Germany's domestic intelligence agency, is running a "Mohammed Cartoon Contests," and plans to display the cartoons outside of mosques, in the runup to Germany's May 13 elections. German officials believe that the pro-NRW is trying deliberately to promote violence between themselves and Salafist groups, and they fear the Germany embassies and companies operating abroad would also be affected. In January 2006, a Danish newspaper published some political cartoons featuring the Muslim prophet Mohammed. (See "Muslim world boycotts Danish goods over offensive cartoons" and "Cartoon controversy explodes into worldwide confrontations between Muslims and Westerners.") That incident, where the publication of cartoons was done relatively innocently, produced violence and boycotts in a number of countries. Spiegel
I was listening to the news last week when a U.N. war crimes tribunal convicted Liberia's former president Charles Taylor of war crimes. Both the BBC and al-Jazeera couldn't stop gushing incessantly about how historic this conviction was and how it would "send a message" to other would-be war criminals that they'd better watch out or the U.N. might get them too.
So first off, the prosecutor had originally claimed that they would convict Charles Taylor of ordering war crimes -- genocide, rape, torture, etc. But they couldn't do that. All they could do is prove that Taylor had sold weapons to rebels who had committed those crimes. Well, that's what Russia is doing today in Syria. Is the U.N. going to arrest Vladimir Putin?
This trial has gone on for ten years, and cost an estimated $50-$200 million. Now that Taylor is convicted, British taxpayers will have to foot the bill for Taylor to serve his sentence in a British prison -- costing up to £100,000 per year.
Finally, nobody gives a shit about an international tribunal when a country is fighting for its existence in a generational crisis war. The only "message" that this conviction has sent is that the United Nations has found another scapegoat that will allow U.N. diplomats to pat each other on the back and say, "Good job, Bunky! You should be proud!" Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion,
see the 1-May-12 World View -- Austerity and illegal migrants the big issues in Greece/France elections
thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-May-2012)
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