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Ethnic Russian nationalism drives move to separate the North Caucasus from Russia
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Undercover policemen provoked far right and far left activists to violence on Friday, as Spain's economy continues to circle the drain, unemployment passes 25%, and the wealthy Catalonia region's separation movement is gathering steam. Everyone knows that Spain needs a bailout, but prime minister Mariano Rajoy is playing a game where he's refusing to ask the EU for a bailout, because he believes that he'll lose his bargaining leverage once he makes the request. Rajoy submitted a budget on Friday that would cut spending by 7% next year, bringing another wave of cuts in health, education and other welfare services, and freezing civil servants' salaries for a third year. Rajoy got some more bad news last week when, as we've recently reported, the June eurozone agreement is near collapse, meaning that Spain's legacy debt will remain on its books, and the national government won't be able to spend as freely as they had hoped. Guardian
Clashes between ethnic and non-ethnic Russians in the North Caucasus (Russia's southern provinces) continue to erupt. In one recent case, 200 police officers had to be called out to quell the disorder when two people got into an argument, and then called all their friends and communities to come and support them. (This reminds me of some of the stories about how "mass incidents" start in China.) Ethnic Russians, who are mostly Russian Orthodox Christian, say that Dagestanis, who are mostly Sunni Muslim, threaten to kill Russian passers-by, but the Dagestanis point out that they're sheep farmers who are making a lot more money than the ethnic Russians, who are just jealous. Anti-Caucasian nationalist sentiment has been growing for years among ethnic Russians, but the security services, who have to maintain order, are provoking nationalism for their own purposes. One after another, Russian nationalist and nationalist-leaning writers and analysts are coming to the conclusion that the North Caucasus should be excluded from Russia. According to one:
"[North Caucasians have practically] exited from the Russian constitutional, mental, civil and any other space. This is no longer Russia. The generation that grew up there does not equate itself with Russia. In the first place, they are not Russians, but the carriers of Islamic, ethnic, clan or some other identities, [and the Kremlin] robs ethnic Russian regions of resources and redirects them to the North Caucasus."
The growth of Russian nationalism is putting ethnic Russians on a collision course with North Caucasians, and separation may be the only answer. Jamestown
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The mental health of elderly Chinese is deteriorating "unexpectedly quickly", according to Li Bengong, president of the Gerontological Society of China, adding, "The mental health issues afflicting elderly Chinese people are the most serious in the world." The problems of the elderly in China are similar to those in the U.S. -- illness, lack of insurance, loss of social status, wondering what to do while they're waiting to die -- resulting in depression and suicide.
But there are special problems for people with Alzheimers. Only 1% of people with Alzheimers ever receive professional treatment. It's too expensive, costing annually 20,000 yuan ($3200), half a family's income. Furthermore, "Many Chinese are afraid that if they send their parents to special medical institutions, friends and neighbors will blame them and say they are unwilling to take care of their elderly relatives."
Remarriage is another problem for the elderly. "My children may look down on me if I try to find another spouse," says one widow. "Many children think they'll lose face or end up in property disputes if their parents remarry." As a result, may elderly just live together.
Experts suggest developing toys for the elderly -- electronic mathematical and spelling puzzles, and dolls aimed at replicating the feeling of having a grandchild. According to one expert, more than one-fifth of elderly people in the United States play video games, but that the phenomenon is rarely seen in China. China Daily
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Sep-12 World View -- The age of disillusion haunts senior citizens in China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(30-Sep-2012)
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France's Hollande calls for immediate military action in Mali
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Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, is quoting its military intelligence sources as saying that the reason why the Obama administration is covering up the al-Qaeda links to the murder of American ambassador Chris Stevens on September 11 in Benghazi, Libya, was because the murder was an act of revenge for US-led plans to assassinate the terrorist Abdelmalek Droukdel, "Emir of Al Qaeda in the Land of the Maghreb", or Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM). According to the details of the story, which Debka says are not fully confirmed, the Americans collaborated with the Libyan, Algerian and Tunisian secret services to kill Droukdel and the entire AQIM leadership, an accomplishment that would have rivaled the killing of Osama bin Laden for the Obama administration. However, Droukdel got wind of the assassination plans, and turned the tables, killing Stevens. The "spontaneous attack" theory put forward by numerous officials in the administration was a full-throated lie.
Armed Islamist groups, including AQIM, Libya's Ansar al-Sharia, Nigeria's Boko Haram, Mali's Ansar al-Dine and the West African Monotheism and Jihad are now preparing to discuss expanding their joint operations, including the smuggling of arms, money and jihadists, using the impetus provided by their Benghazi "success." Debka
France's President François Hollande called Wednesday for the Security Council to approve African military intervention in Mali "as quickly as possible." France and the African union would provide logistical support to an effort led by ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). Mali is a former French colony, and al-Qaeda linked Ansar al-Dine has now taken control of 2/3rds of the country, an area as large as France itself. A side meeting of the U.N. Security Council was held on Mali, and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton agreed that the Mali situation was serious:
"We all know too well what is happening in Mali, and the incredible danger posed by violent extremists imposing their brutal ideology, committing human rights abuses, destroying irreplaceable cultural heritage. We have to train the security forces in Mali, help them dislodge the extremists, protect human rights, and defend borders."
However, Clinton and other U.N. Security Council members urged caution, and there will be no support for military action in Mali. AP and Reuters
The death of Osama bin Laden raised the hope that al-Qaeda was in decline, but the killing of U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens was only the latest of the successes of a newly invigorated group of al-Qaeda linked militant organizations in Africa. Much of their success follows from the aftermath of the military action in Libya last year. As I've been reporting for over a year, the fall of Muammar Gaddafi left behind huge warehouses of modern weapons that have now fallen into the hands of these major African Islamic militant groups -- Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Libya's Ansar al-Sharia, Nigeria's Boko Haram, Mali's Ansar al-Dine and the West African Monotheism and Jihad. (See: "8-Sep-11 World View -- Thousands of surface-to-air missiles missing from Libya warehouses") These weapons were used in the Benghazi attack that killed Chris Stevens, they were used in the takeover of Mali, they've been used in terrorist attacks in Algeria, they've been used in battles between Christians ans Muslims in Nigeria, they've been used against Egyptian forces in the Sinai, and there is certainly much worse to come.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Sep-12 World View -- Aftermath of Libyan military action sees big increase in al-Qaeda activity in Africa thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(29-Sep-2012)
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Mahmoud Abbas will ask General Assembly for Palestine statehood
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There have been two days of drama at the United Nations, as world leaders spoke to the General Assembly. Saying that Israel will live forever, Israel's President Benjamin Netanyahu used his speech to contrast Israel against the dark forces of militant Islam:
"Three thousand years ago, King David reigned over the Jewish state in our eternal capital, Jerusalem. I say that to all those who proclaim that the Jewish state has no roots in our region and that it will soon disappear.Throughout our history, the Jewish people have overcome all the tyrants who have sought our destruction. It's their ideologies that have been discarded by history.
The people of Israel live on. We say in Hebrew Am Yisrael Chai, and the Jewish state will live forever.
The Jewish people have lived in the land of Israel for thousands of years. Even after most of our people were exiled from it, Jews continued to live in the land of Israel throughout the ages. The masses of our people never gave up the dreamed of returning to our ancient homeland.
Defying the laws of history, we did just that. We in gathered the exiles, restored our independence and rebuilt our national life. The Jewish people have come home.
We will never be uprooted again. ...
For today, a great battle is being waged between the modern and the medieval.
The forces of modernity seek a bright future in which the rights of all are protected, in which an ever-expanding digital library is available in the palm of every child, in which every life is sacred.
The forces of medievalism seek a world in which women and minorities are subjugated, in which knowledge is suppressed, in which not life but death is glorified.
These forces clash around the globe, but nowhere more starkly than in the Middle East.
Israel stands proudly with the forces of modernity. We protect the rights of all our citizens: men and women, Jews and Arabs, Muslims and Christians - all are equal before the law. ...
Yet the medieval forces of radical Islam, whom you just saw storming the American embassies throughout the Middle East, they oppose this.
They seek supremacy over all Muslims. They are bent on world conquest. They want to destroy Israel, Europe, America. They want to extinguish freedom. They want to end the modern world.
Militant Islam has many branches - from the rulers of Iran with their Revolutionary Guards to Al Qaeda terrorists to the radical cells lurking in every part of the globe.
But despite their differences, they are all rooted in the same bitter soil of intolerance. That intolerance is directed first at their fellow Muslims, and then to Christians, Jews, Buddhists, Hindus, secular people, anyone who doesn't submit to their unforgiving creed.
They want to drag humanity back to an age of unquestioning dogma and unrelenting conflict.
I am sure of one thing. Ultimately they will fail. Ultimately, light will penetrate the darkness."
The last portion of Netanyahu's speech was a science lesson on how to build a nuclear weapon. He held up a cartoon picture of a bomb with a fuse, and drew a red line on the cartoon, saying that Iran will have enough highly enriched plutonium to build a bomb by next spring or summer. He asked that the United States and the United Nations draw a political red line threatening military action against Iran if it continues to produce highly enriched plutonium. Latinos Post
In a speech that Netanyahu called "libelous," Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas began by saying that "I speak on behalf of an angry people," and launched a blistering attack on Israel:
"Developments over the past year have confirmed what we have persistently drawn attention to and warned of: the catastrophic danger of the racist Israeli settlement of our country, Palestine.During the past months, attacks by terrorist militias of Israeli settlers have become a daily reality, with at least 535 attacks perpetrated since the beginning of this year. We are facing relentless waves of attacks against our people, our mosques, churches and monasteries, and our homes and schools; they are unleashing their venom against our trees, fields, crops and properties, and our people have become fixed targets for acts of killing and abuse with the complete collusion of the occupying forces and the Israeli Government.
The escalation of settler attacks should not surprise anyone, for it is the inherent byproduct of the continuation of occupation and a government policy that deliberately fosters the settlements and settlers and deems their satisfaction to be an absolute priority. And, it is the inherent byproduct of the racist climate fueled by a culture of incitement in the Israeli curriculum and extremist declarations, which are rife with hatred and are rooted in a series of discriminatory laws created and enacted over the years against the Palestinian people, as well as by the security apparatus and courts, which provide excuse after excuse for the settlers' crimes and for their accelerated release should one of them happen to be arrested, and by official and military commissions of inquiry, which fabricate justifications for soldiers who have committed what are clearly considered to be war crimes and perpetrated acts of murder, torture and abuse of peaceful civilians."
Abbas said that this year he will not allow the United States to stop him from applying to the United Nations General Assembly for recognition of the State of Palestine as a non-member state of the United Nations. This will qualify Palestine to join all U.N. organizations, and, if desired, to pursue Israel in International Criminal Court. Latinos Post
Speaking for the 8th and last time at the United Nations, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad used his speech to propose a new world order based on the imminent coming of the Mahdi. Ahmadinejad is a devout believer in the Mahdaviat -- the Shia Muslim belief that the Mahdi (or "the 12'th Imam" or "the Hidden Imam") is coming to save mankind. This belief is roughly equivalent to the Christian belief in the second coming of Christ, or the Buddhist belief in the Maitreya -- that a new Buddha is to appear on earth, and will achieve complete enlightenment. In 2011, Ahmadinejad used his belief in the Mahdi to justify disobeying the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei On Wednesday, he said:
"God Almighty has promised us a man of kindness, a man who loves people and loves absolute justice, a man who is a perfect human being and is named Imam A1-Mahdi, a man who will come in the company of Jesus Christ (PBUH) and the righteous. By using the inherent potential of all the worthy men and women of all nations and I repeat, the inherent potential of "all the worthy men and women of all nations" he will lead humanity into achieving its glorious and eternal ideals.The arrival of the Ultimate Savior will mark a new beginning, a rebirth and a resurrection. It will be the beginning of peace, lasting security and genuine life.
His arrival will be the end of oppression, immorality, poverty, discrimination and the beginning of justice, love and empathy.
He will come and he will cut through ignorance, superstition, prejudice by opening the gates of science and knowledge. He will establish a world brimful of prudence and he will prepare the ground for the collective, active and constructive participation of all in the global management."
In more prosaic portions of his speech, he said that the United Nations is useless, and it should be replaced by the Non-Aligned Movement organization.
What was surprising about Ahmadinejad's speech were the things that were omitted. He didn't attack Israel, he didn't mention Syria, and he didn't mention Iran's nuclear program. Latinos Post
In yesterday's world view, I quoted a televised exchange between Sunni and Shia activists that devolved into name-calling and violence. The Sunni said that the Shia had been renounced by his own father and brothers, and the Shia retorted:
"Your wife is contacting Shi'ites, offering to engage them in 'pleasure marriage.' ... Do you want me to provide recordings?"
A web site reader has informed me that this was NOT just an irrelevant personal attack. A "pleasure marriage" is a temporary marriage under a contract that specifies a fixed time period. It's permitted by Shia Islam, but not by Sunni Islam. And so the remark was intended to say to the Sunni, "Even your own wife is following Shia practices which should be blasphemous to you." Memri
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(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Sep-12 World View -- At U.N., Abbas and Netanyahu are combative, while Ahmadinejad invokes the Mahdi thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(28-Sep-2012)
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Greece accuses Turkey of ramming in the Aegean Sea
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More than 50,000 people marched to Syntagma Square in Athens Greece to protest the new round of austerity measures that European leaders are demanding in return for the next bailout. The rally was peaceful at first, but as it ended, dozens of black-clad youth threw stones, molotov cocktails and petrol bottles at riot police, who responded with several rounds of teargas. Greece has promised to implement an additional 12 billion euros of new austerity cuts. These include cutting wages, pensions and welfare benefits. With Greece in its fifth year of recession, analysts say patience is wearing thin leading to a strong public backlash, with possible violence. Independent (Dublin)
A much-ballyhooed deal that the eurozone leaders reached at the end of June ( "30-Jun-12 World View -- Germany and Angela Merkel cave in to Italy and Spain" has now collapsed, throwing the bailout dreams of Spain and Italy into chaos.
I summarized the terms of that deal at the, and it's worth taking a moment to review those terms so that you can see the game-playing going on:
This whole agreement was never more than a farce. It was being called a "growth pact," but it would not create one iota of growth. It was strongly favored by Spain and Italy because it would permit unlimited profligate behavior to continue, with expenses largely paid by Germany.
And so on Wednesday, four nations announced a re-interpretation of the June deal. Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and Austria. They've added the following sentence to the deal:
"The ESM can take direct responsibility of problems that occur under the new supervision, but legacy assets should be under the responsibility of national authorities."
In other words, the really huge legacy debts will still remain on the books of Spain and Italy. This means that the possibility of default remains for Spain and Italy, which means that bond yields (interest rates) will not fall, which means that they will be unable to sell them as cheaply as they had hoped. Reuters
A Greek coast guard vessel and a Turkish patrol boat collided on Wednesday in the eastern Aegean Sea. Greece's Foreign Ministry is accusing the Turkey of having brought about the collision on purpose in order to challenge Greece's territorial waters, and therefore the European Union's territorial waters. Although no one was armed, both sides are said to have armed their weapons during the standoff. Kathimerini and Greece Foreign Ministry
After China said on Tuesday that "Fascist" Japan must "abandon illusions" about retaining sovereignty over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, on Wednesday, Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, speaking at the United Nations, made a statement that was equally firm, though not as offensive:
"As for the Senkakus, they are an inherent part of our territory in light of history and also under international law.There are no territorial issues as such. Therefore, there cannot be any compromise that represents a retreat from this position.
I must say clearly to China that there is no excuse for violence and strongly urge China to protect Japan's citizens and business."
The reason that China and Japan are fighting over two insignificant, uninhabitable rocks in the middle of the East China Sea is because the owner of the islands gets with them control over a 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the islands, and it's believed that the region around the islands contains trillions of dollars in oil and gas deposits, as well as rich fishing waters. Reuters
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In an Egyptian TV show airing on September 9, the Egyptian Sunni Walid Ismail and Egyptian Shia activist Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud come to blows. Here are some excerpts:
Moderator: "Let's just talk about one more thing, since we have only a few minutes left. Let's talk about the citizen and citizenship. Are Egyptian Shi'ites more loyal to Egypt or to Iran? In Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah said: 'I'm more loyal to Iran than to Lebanon.' Is it the same case with the Shi'ites in Egypt?"Shi'ite activist Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "Things are much simpler than that. There is this bunch of really stupid people, who are like a woodworm gnawing away at the Egyptian people. I'm talking about the Wahhabis. They are the ones who are responsible for everything – they are the ones who have driven a wedge between Muslims and Copts, and between Muslims and Muslims. They themselves are divided into different sects.
"Secondly, I was a Salafi and then I became a Shi'ite. I wasn't born a Shi'ite. My father has a Masters degree in Sunni jurisprudence..."
Sunni activist Walid Ismail: "He renounced you..."
Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "You are a liar."
Walid Ismail: "He did, and so did your brothers."
Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "You are a liar..."
Walid Ismail: "By God, they all renounced you..."
Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "Your wife is contacting Shi'ites, offering to engage them in 'pleasure marriage.'"
Walid Ismail: "That's inappropriate..."
Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "Do you want me to provide recordings?"
Walid Ismail throws something at Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud, who jumps out of his chair
Walid Ismail: "Shame on you! That was below the belt! You're being insolent."
Moderator: "That's enough, Walid. [To Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud:] How dare you mention his wife?! Shame on you!"
Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "I didn't say anything like that."
Moderator: "Show some respect! Shame on you!"
Mahmoud Ahmad Mahmoud: "I didn't say anything like that."
Moderator: "That's it, Walid. I apologize... Dear viewers, let's take a short break. We'll return shortly."
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Sep-12 World View -- Massive anti-austerity riots in Athens thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(27-Sep-2012)
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Media gushes over home prices, triggering great hilarity
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With China and Japan close to a military confrontation over the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands, Taiwan decided to stake its own claim. Taiwan sent 40 fishing boats and eight Coast Guard vessels from Taiwan to the disputed islands, to establish the right to fish in the territorial waters. The Japanese Coast Guard fired water cannons on the fishing boats, in order to force them to leave, and Taiwanese Coast Guard vessels returned fire with their own water cannons. The Taiwanese boats left after a few hours.
This skirmish was the most dangerous so far, since water cannons are far from harmless. Taiwan's third party role in the Senkaku dispute is an interesting development, because Taiwan does not want to be invaded by China, which means that Taiwan and Japan are natural allies. Thus, we can imagine two possible scenarios:
As the level of anger between China and Japan over control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea continues to escalate, Japanese and Chinese officials held a meeting in Beijing with the "hope" of coming to some agreement, say, to share the oil and gas deposits surrounding the island. However, China's Foreign Ministry issued a very harsh statement following the meeting:
"On September 25, consultations on the issue of Diaoyu Dao Islands were held by Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun and Japanese Vice Foreign Minister Chikao Kawai in Beijing, during which the two sides had a candid and in-depth exchange of views.Zhang Zhijun pointed out that Diaoyu Dao and its affiliated islands have been China's sacred territory since ancient times, as historical and legal evidences have shown. The Japanese side, however, has disregarded the repeated and stern representations made by the Chinese side, denied the important understanding and consensus reached between the older generation of leaders of the two countries, and openly took the illegal actions of "nationalizing" Diaoyu Dao in defiance of historical and legal evidences. These acts constitute a gross violation of China's territory. They are highly offensive to the 1.3 billion Chinese people, and gravely trample on historical facts and international law. It is an outright denial of the outcomes of the victory of the World Anti-Fascist War and poses a grave challenge to the post-war international order. Historical verdict can never be overturned; consensus must not be rejected; and flouting people's aspiration will not be tolerated. The Chinese side will absolutely not tolerate any unilateral action taken by the Japanese side that infringes on China's territorial sovereignty. The Japanese side must abandon any illusion, face up to its erroneous actions and correct them with credible steps. It should recommit itself to the consensus and understanding reached between the leaders of the two countries and meet China half way so as to bring China-Japan relations back onto the right track of sound and stable growth at an early date."
As time goes on, the following becomes increasingly clear:
China sent its first aircraft carrier into formal service on Tuesday in a show of force. The aircraft carrier is refitted from a ship bought from Ukraine, and will have a limited role, mostly for training and testing, until the planned launch of China's first domestically built carriers after 2015. Reuters
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On Tuesday morning, S&P released the July Case-Shiller home price report, showing a 1.6% increase, compared to the previous month.
The first story I saw was the CNN story:
"Home prices at 9-year high By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 9:08 AM ETHome prices are back to 2003 levels in the latest sign of an improved housing market.
In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate market, average home prices returned to the best level in nine years in July."
Unfortunately, this is typical of what passes for financial journalism these days. Chris Isidore is apparently supposed to be a financial reporter, but he or she apparently doesn't even know that there was a real estate bubble that peaked in 2007, as you can easily see from the graph. Or maybe he or she doesn't know how to read a graph. Or maybe he or she just wanted to help out President Obama in his reelection bid, and purposed lied in the story.
An hour later, the story changed to:
"Home prices rebound
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney September 25, 2012: 10:11 AM ETHome prices are back to 2003 levels in the latest sign of an improved housing market.
In another sign of a turnaround in the long-battered real estate market, average home prices rebounded in July to the same level as they were nine years ago."
Here's more hilarity. The Bloomberg story says:
"Home Prices in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast in Year to JulyAnd so, I guess that home prices rose MORE than forecast. But here's the Reuters story:
By Michelle Jamrisko on September 25, 2012Home prices in the U.S. climbed more than forecast in July from a year earlier, adding to signs that housing will spur economic growth."
"U.S. home prices rise less than expected in July-S&PU.S. single-family home prices rose for a sixth month in a row in July, though the improvement was not as strong as expected, a closely watched survey showed on Tuesday."
So I guess that home prices rose LESS than expected, not more than expected.
This is all so pathetic. What's the real story?
I've written a number of times in the past that, based on my own estimates, home prices will continue to fall to their levels in the early 1990s, or possibly worse. You can see that by simply applying the Law of Mean Reversion to the above graph.
Well known financial analyst A. Gary Shilling agrees with me. [Corrected 26-Sep] According to his monthly "insight" client newsletter, he expects home prices to drop another 20%. He gives several reasons:
So are the reporters who write these stories stupid or lying? I don't know. I report, you decide.
These figures make it clear that you should not buy a house under almost any circumstances. Five years from now, your house will be worth far less than it is today.
Standard & Poors and CNN and Bloomberg and Reuters and Business Insider
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Sep-12 World View -- China says 'Fascist' Japan must 'abandon illusions' about disputed islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(26-Sep-2012)
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New U.N. 'peace envoy' to Syria dithers, describing a grim situation
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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When France's President was Nicolas Sarkozy, German Chancellor Angela Merkel could count on being able to reach agreement with him over how to proceed on the euro debt crisis. Like Merkel, Sarkozy was a fiscal conservative, but France's new president is François Hollande, who is a Socialist, and anything but a fiscal conservative. And so while the two were in Ludwigsburg, Germany, on Saturday, celebrating the 50th anniversary of Germany-France unity, they were sharply disagreeing on fiscal matters. The two major areas of disagreement are:
The irony, of course, is that even though Merkel and Sarkozy could agree on what to do, their plans have accomplished nothing, and the situation is much worse than it was two years ago. That's because, as I've been saying for two years, NO SOLUTION EXISTS. So now we'll go through a period where France and Germany will disagree over everything and blame each other, but the final outcome will be no different. Bloomberg
Lakhdar Brahimi, who recently became the new United Nations "peace envoy" to Syria, replacing Kofi Annan, spoke to the United Nations Security Council on Monday and provided a very grim assessment:
"I think there is no disagreement that the situation is extremely bad and getting worse. I refuse to believe that reasonable people do not see that you cannot go backward; you cannot go back to the Syria of the past. I think I told everybody in Damascus and elsewhere that reform is not enough. What is needed is change."
Brahimi was referring to the almost unprecendent situation where Russia and China have repeatedly vetoed one resolution after another.
"If I do not represent the entire council, I am nothing. I need to be seen to represent a united council and a united League of Arab States, and I think the Security Council understands that perfectly well."
Brahimi is just running around the world talking to everyone, with no hope of progress. Kofi Annan and his "six-point plan" were worse than useless, because they provided cover for Syria's president Bashar al-Assad to continue his massacres of Syria's women and children. Now Brahimi will replace Annan in that role. AP
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Some people are calling this a confrontation that harks back to 1936, when Generalissimo Francisco Franco seized power in Spain, launching the brutal Spanish civil war. On Thursday, the parliament of Catalonia will vote on whether to declare independence from Spain. Now the Spanish Military Association is threatening to charge with high treason anyone who is participating in this cause:
"If this plan is actuated, let there be no doubt that those who have permitted this, or participated or assisted in reaching this threat of fracture of Spain, either by commission or omission or through their constitutional positions, shall be accountable to the fullest extent possible of the serious charge of treason before the courts of military jurisdiction."
Spanish Military Association (translation) and An Phoblact (Dublin)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Sep-12 World View -- Catalonia will vote for independence from Spain on Thursday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(25-Sep-2012)
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Germany and France commemorate de Gaulle's speech 50 years ago
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Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, the man considered responsible for the movie "Innocence of Muslims," which triggered numerous anti-American protests by Muslims in several countries, has gone into hiding with his family. Pakistan's Railways Minister Ghulam Ahmed Bilour on Saturday offered a $100,000 bounty to anyone who could kill Nakoula. Bilour said he knew that he was committing a crime by instigating people for murder, but said that he was ready to be a criminal for this cause:
"I request all the rich people to bring out all their money so that the killer can be loaded with dollars and gold. ...If there is a case lodged against me in the international court or in this country’s court, I will ask people to hand me over to them. ... I want to show these countries that we will not tolerate any such things."
Bildour also requested help from the Taliban and al-Qaeda, a statement that drew furious responses from Pakistan's government, including the president and prime minister. Senator Zahid Khan, a spokesman for the Awami National Party, which is Bildour's political party, said:
"We believe in nonviolence. How could we make such announcements? Our party has been fighting against militancy and extremism for years. How could we invite Taliban and al Qaeda to kill someone? Taliban and al Qaeda are our enemies who have killed our loved ones. We have lots of concerns over the statement of our colleague."
There have been some reports that Bildour's Railway Ministry is in trouble because he can't keep the trains running on time. Daily Times (Lahore) and CNN
Japan’s three biggest carmakers -- Toyota, Nissan Motor Co. and Honda -- had their dealerships and factories in China trashed by Chinese mobs last week, over the dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. The same was true of Japan's electronics firms, including Canon Inc. and Panasonic Corp. The riots and violence reached a peak on Tuesday, which was the 81st anniversary of Japan's 1931 invasion of Manchuria. By Friday, the riots and demonstrations had settled down, and Japanese firms have been resuming operations.
Although both governments have attempted to de-escalate the situation, tensions have been growing on both sides, and there are fears that a mistake or miscalculation could trigger a military clash. A mistake did occur last week: No sooner had China lifted its annual fishing moratorium on fishing in the East China Sea than an erroneous report ostentatiously announced 1,000 small fishing boats were headed to the islands. According to a Jamestown analysis:
"[A recent Chinese commentary] made it clear that China today is not the China that a recently industrialized Japan easily defeated in 1894 when the territory under contest was Korea. In fact, China today is not the China of 2005 or 2010, when relations between the two countries also soured. ... At some point, Beijing may rule that Japan has crossed a line and decide to retaliate. Tokyo’s gambling, for its own domestic agenda, is all the more dangerous because of the opacity that characterizes government operations in China as well as the internal tensions generated by factionalism within the CCP ahead of a power transition. These factors make it very difficult for outside observers to know with certainty what will trigger what response from Beijing. This is especially true if Beijing senses that domestic dissatisfaction with the economy is threatening its legitimacy, which could then make an external distraction—and nothing serves that purpose better than Japan—all the more appealing. This also makes it possible for hardline elements within the CCP and the PLA to exploit tensions to shape the composition of the future Politburo ahead of the transition later this year."
Though China's politicians may try to de-escalate the tensions, the Chinese people have been growing increasingly nationalistic and xenophobic every year in the last decade, and at some point the people will force the government to take harsher action, as the analysis indicates.
Several web site readers have asked my why China and Japan are fighting over two insignificant, uninhabitable rocks in the middle of the East China Sea. The reason is because the owner of the islands gets with them control over a 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) around the islands, and it's believed that the region around the islands contains trillions of dollars in oil and gas deposits. The same is true of the Paracel and Spratly islands in the South China Sea, which is why China is using its vast military power to confiscate islands that have historically belonged to other countries. Bloomberg and Jamestown
Terrorists in the Sinai, along the border between Israel and Egypt, fired on Israeli soldiers on Friday, killing one. The increase in attacks from Sinai militants is forcing reconsideration of the 1979 Egypt-Israeli peace treaty, which restricts the number of soldiers and tanks that Egypt is permitted to send to the Sinai. There wasn't a problem when Hosni Mubarak was president, since he kept the Sinai under iron control, but since he was deposed, the Sinai has become ungovernable, and the Bedouin tribes have been infiltrated with al-Qaeda militants. The Egyptians would like to increase the number of soldiers and military equipment in the Sinai, but they're restricted by the peace treaty. On Sunday, Israeli officials said that they would resist any attempts to reconsider the terms of the peace treaty. Israel's foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said on Sunday:
"The Egyptians shouldn't try to delude themselves or delude others, and they should not rely on this demand. The problem in Sinai is not the size of the forces, it is their readiness to fight, to put pressure and to carry out the job as is needed."
However, the Israelis may be forced to change their minds because of the increase in militant attacks. Egyptian Foreign Affairs Council member Ahmed Abdel Halim said Sunday:
"We have informed Israel that we were sending more troops than allowed in the Camp David Accords, so we could conclude all the military operations in Sinai. This is so that Israel stays calm; we will not act against it."
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German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's president François Hollande attended a ceremony in Ludwigsburg Germany on Saturday, commemorating the 50'th anniversary of the September 21, 1962, speech by Charles leader Charles de Gaulle. The speech was extremely passionate, and marked a turning point in the relations between the two bitter World War II enemies. Speaking in German, de Gaulle said,
"I congratulate you, also, for being young Germans, which means you are children of a great people. That's right, a great people! Which has also made some great mistakes in the course of its history."
A few months later, in January 1963, de Gaulle and Chancellor Konrad Adenauer signed the Elysée Treaty or Treaty of Friendship. Deutsche Welle and German History Center
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Sep-12 World View -- Militant attacks in Sinai may force Egypt-Israel peace treaty to reopen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(24-Sep-2012)
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Why has Wall Street not been held accountable for financial crisis crimes?
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Restrictions on the practice of religion, as well as religious conflicts, have been increasing in countries around the world, according to research from 2007 to 2010 by the Pew Research Center. Three of the examples mentioned by the report are:
The number of countries with very high government restrictions on religion increased from 10 to 18 during the period. These include: Saudi Arabia, Iran, China, Egypt, Vietnam, Syria, Russia and Indonesia.
The number of countries experiencing social hostilities -- mob or sectarian violence, harassment over attire for religious reasons and other religion-related intimidation or abuse -- also increased. Countries where social hostilities were high include: Pakistan, India, Israel, Nigeria, Yemen, Palestinian territories, Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia.
The level of restrictions and hostility also rose in the United States, from a low to a moderate level. These incidents typically occurred at the local level, including restrictions on wearing certain religious attire or symbols, including beards, or difficulties in obtaining zoning permits to build churches or mosques or religious schools. Religion-related terrorist attacks spiked in the U.S. in 2009, including the Fort Hood attack by U.S. Army Major Nidal Hasan, and the attempted airplane bombing by the Nigerian underwear bomber.
Worldwide, the number of countries where religious groups were harassed were: Christians - 139, Muslims - 121, Jews - 85, Hindus - 30, Buddhists - 21.
This is exactly what is predicted by Generational Dynamics theory during a generational Crisis era. In a generational Awakening era, such as America in the 1960s and continuing for several decades thereafter, society places the highest priority on individual rights, including freedom of religion. But as a society enters a generational Crisis era, levels of nationalism and xenophobia increase sharply along ethnic, religious and geographic lines. Individual rights become subordinated to the concern for the survival of the nation and its way of life, and religious harassment becomes a method for "identity group expansion," which I discussed at length three days ago. This research has validated the generational theory prediction, and suggests how increased conflict between religions might lead to a regional war somewhere that could spiral out of control through identity group expansion. Pew Research Center
A spotlight report by Al-Jazeera tells a story we've heard before, though almost never from the mainstream media -- that the banksters who committed the crimes that led to financial crisis are not being investigated and prosecuted. One person interviewed, Chris Swecker, formerly of the FBI, warned banks of an epidemic of mortgage fraud as early as 2004. However, his warnings were ignored:
"That's where we start to talk about criminal intent and fraud is knowing full well that there was fraud going on and just turning your back on it and saying, alright, we're going to package this stuff up anyway and we're going to sell it anyway."
There is absolute certainty by this time that in 2004, the banksters were knowingly creating tens of trillions of dollars in fraudulent synthetic mortgage-backed securities and selling them to gullible investors, resulting in the global financial crisis that is far from over.
However, the Obama administration Justice Department adamantly refuses to investigate the banksters who committed these crimes. According to the report, they're refusing because the bankster financial institutions provide huge amounts of money in campaign contributions to the Democrats. However, the report points out that they contribute even more to the Republicans, so a Romney victory in November will not change anything. Al-Jazeera
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Sep-12 World View -- Religious conflict on the rise around the world thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(23-Sep-2012)
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Fifteen killed in violent anti-American protests across Pakistan
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Tens of thousands of Libyan citizens in Benghazi, chanting "No, no, to militias" and "The ambassador was Libya’s friend," marched in a rally against Ansar al-Sharia, the Islamist militia believed to be responsible for the September 11 attack on the U.S. Consulate that killed American ambassador Chris Stevens. Hundreds of protesters stormed the compound of the extremist group, evicting militiamen and setting fire to their building. Last year, Gaddafi's regime warned that if he were gone, then the militias in the Benghazi area would declare an Islamic Emirate and ally itself with al-Qaeda. But now, the residents are lashing out against Ansar al-Sharia, the main Islamic extremist group in the city. AP
In a familiar scene that we've seen many times before, the latest talks between Greece and the leaders of the EU "troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- are leaving Athens, after Greek officials failed to reach an agreement with the troika on the austerity measures that will have to be implemented in return for another bailout. The official statement is that the talks are going to take a "brief pause" for a few days. Since we've seen this so many times before, we know exactly what's coming: Greece will commit to a set of austerity measures. The troika will authorize the bailout, kicking the can down the road. The austerity measures that Greece committed to will not be implemented. Then, when it's time for another bailout decision, the scenario will be repeated. Kathimerini and Bloomberg
In the 12 months ending July 31, a total of 326 billion euros were pulled from banks in the "troubled" nations -- Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece. This coincides with a roughly similar increase in deposits into the banks of the seven "core" countries, including Germany and France. That’s leading to a fragmentation of credit and a two-tiered banking system, that's becoming increasingly unsustainable. According to one analyst,
"Capital flight is leading to the disintegration of the euro zone and divergence between the periphery and the core. Companies pay 1 to 2 percentage points more to borrow in the periphery. You can’t get growth to resume with such divergence."
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At least 15 people were killed and more than 200 wounded in anti-American protests across Pakistan, from Karachi to Lahore to Islamabad to Peshawar. The protests were made worse by what was apparently a very dumb move by Pakistan's government. On Thursday, the government said that Friday would be "Love the Prophet Day" holiday in reaction to the "Innocence of Muslims" film. Thus, many millions of people had Friday off, leaving them free to take part in the protests. Dawn and Al-Jazeera
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Sep-12 World View -- Capital flight is leading to the disintegration of the eurozone thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(22-Sep-2012)
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Anti-American protests spread across cities in Pakistan
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Memories of 1936, when Generalissimo Francisco Franco seized power in Spain and vowed to crush Catalan nationalists as "vultures," are being revived in Catalonia today, with a new nationalist movement demanding economic independence from Spain. Things are moving very quickly now, with a parliamentary debate scheduled for next week on the future of Catalonia.
Catalonia's President Artur Mas met with Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in Madrid on Thursday, but the talks apparently went badly. According to Mas:
"The prime minister told me there is no room to negotiate a fiscal pact with Catalonia and that his answer will be 'no' in the coming weeks and months.If the negative answer to the fiscal pact is so obvious, then we will have to take decisions in the next days. All options are open."
This political chaos comes at a time when Spain's economy is going down the drain, and Rajoy will be forced to ask the EU for a bailout. Telegraph (London) and Reuters
Witnesses of last week's deadly attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi Libya have told CBS News that the alleged anti-American protest that U.S. officials say morphed into the assault never actually took place. These statements differ sharply with statements by American officials to the effect that the attack that it originally started as a spontaneous anti-American protest against the film "Innocence of Muslims" that many Muslims consider to be blasphemous. White House press secretary Jay Carney said:
"This is a fairly volatile situation, and it is in response not to U.S. policy, not to, obviously, the administration, not to the American people. It is in response to a video – a film – that we have judged to be reprehensive and disgusting. That in no way justifies any violent reaction to it. But this is not a case of protests directed at the United States, writ large, or at U.S. policy. This is in response to a video that is offensive and – to Muslims."
However, witnesses' statement indicate that the actual assault was perpetrated by militias and possible al-Qaeda elements with assault weapons, rather than as a spontaneous outgrowth of a protest. However, even though the assault took place on 9/11, it's not known to what extent the assault was pre-planned. The FBI is supposed to investigate, but FBI investigators have not yet gone to the destroyed consulate. CBS News and Mediaite
Some 5,000 protesters protested in front of the U.S. embassy in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, and clashed with people. At least 50 people were injured as police fired tear gas and live rounds into the crowds. According to one student who was protesting:
"Our policemen are not any better than the Americans because they are trying to stop us. They are in the same league as them, they are heretics like them.They should allow us to demolish the American embassy because they have blasphemed against our holy Prophet. The police are also becoming an accomplice of blasphemers."
Large protests also occurred in other cities, including Lahore and Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani-administered Kashmir, where more than 200 protesters set fire to an effigy of Barack Obama.
The US is spending $70,000 to buy time on Pakistan television stations for public relations ads in a bid to stem further protests. Al-Jazeera
While few Muslims would go so far as to say that blasphemy against the prophet Mohammed is accepted, the widespread fury at the movie "Innocence of Muslims" is giving way to a debate over free speech in the Muslim world. In fact, most of the Arab world has not seen major protests for much of this week. The streets around the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, where clashes raged for days, were relatively quiet Thursday. Widespread fury was expressed in countries from Indonesia to Morocco, but nowhere did Muslims take to the streets en masse to protest the film. However, Friday is the weekly Islamic day of prayer, and the largest protests typically follow midday prayers, as worshippers pour out of mosques into the street. AP
Both France and Germany have announced that they will close many of their embassies on Friday in anticipation of large protests, following the publication of cartoons mocking the prophet Mohammed in a French satire magazine. On Thursday, German satire magazine Titanic announced that it would also publish its own Muhammad issue later this month, which could provoke further unrest. Spiegel
America's "reset" with Russia has apparently ended, in view of the announced immediate expulsion US Agency for International Development (USAID). Russia’s Foreign Ministry, in a statement supported by president Vladimir Putin, accused USAID of meddling in Russia’s internal affairs and "attempting to influence the outcome of elections by distributing aid grants." The U.S. is saying that the decision came as a surprise, but Russian officials say that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov informed Secretary of State Hillary Clinton of the decision on June 29.
USAID has been active in Russia since 1992, and has distributed some $2.7 billion, helping human-rights groups in documenting election fraud and human rights abuses, supporting AIDS education, treatment of tuberculosis and improvement of infrastructure programs. But the charge of "meddling" is apparently linked to the aid money given to the election monitoring group Golos. Golos helped expose massive vote rigging by the Putin's organization during parliamentary elections last December. Putin's party actually lost the election, but the electoral fraud gave him a majority in the Duma. The exposed fraud triggered massive anti-Putin pro-democracy demonstrations in Moscow that Putin sees as an international conspiracy, led by the US State Department. Moscow Times and Jamestown
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Sep-12 World View -- Russia's expulsion of USAID signals end of 'Reset' policy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(21-Sep-2012)
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Blasphemy laws and freedom of speech divide Western governments
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France's satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo on Wednesday published a series of magazine with a series of cartoons, some of which depict Muhammad naked or in demeaning or pornographic poses. France's Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said that the principle of freedom of expression "must not be infringed," and added: "Is it pertinent, intelligent, in this context to pour oil on the fire? The answer is no."
In view of the recent attacks on American embassies over the film "Innocence of Muslims," France reacted by ordering its embassies, cultural centers, schools and other official sites to close on Friday — the Muslim holy day — in 20 countries. It also immediately shut down its embassy and the French school in Tunisia, the site of deadly protests at the U.S. Embassy last week. The French Foreign Ministry issued a travel warning urging French citizens in the Muslim world to exercise "the greatest vigilance," avoiding public gatherings and "sensitive buildings." AP
I really have to laugh at Fabius' posturing about not infringing the principle of freedom of expression. Last year, France's parliament passed an insane law making it a CRIME to claim that the war between Turkey and Armenia a century ago was not a genocide. And in some European countries, including France, you can go to jail if you deny the Holocaust.
Freedom of expression in France is only for those who do not insult the Armenians or the Israelis. The French don't like the Turks, so it's OK to jail someone who sides with the Turks.
It's worthwhile adding that you can be a "denier" of all sorts of historical events without going to jail. You can deny that the French Revolution ever happened, or that the Christian Crusades happened or that the Protestant Revolution happened, without anyone sending you to jail. This shows how arbitrary laws banning freedom of expression can be.
Blasphemy was a common law offence under Irish law when the 1937 Constitution explicitly made it an offence punishable by law, though it was seldom enforced. Several attempts to repeal the law have failed, and in 2009, a new Defamation Bill contained a claus saying, "A person who publishes or utters blasphemous matter shall be guilty of an offence and shall be liable upon conviction on indictment to a fine not exceeding 100,000 euros."
"Blasphemous matter" is defined as matter "that is grossly abusive or insulting in relation to matters held sacred by any religion, thereby causing outrage among a substantial number of the adherents of that religion; and he or she intends, by the publication of the matter concerned, to cause such outrage."
Under this definition, I would assume that the film "Innocence of Muslims" would be considered a violation of Ireland's blasphemy laws. However, prosecution of blasphemy in Ireland effectively ceased when the Church of Ireland was disestablished in 1869, though a man was prosecuted for burning of a Bible in 1885.
In Britain, prior to the 1900s, several people were flogged or imprisoned after being convicted of blasphemy. The last person in Britain to be sent to prison for blasphemy was John Gott, who in 1921 was convicted for publishing pamphlets satirizing the Bible, in which he compared Jesus to a circus clown. Michael Nugent
This week, a businessman in Hyderabad, Pakistan, Haji Nasrullah Khan, has fled for his life and is in hiding, after being accused by his neighbors of blasphemy. Protesters were demanding that all businesses close their shops in protest of the movie "Innocence of Muslims," and Nasrullah refused. Scores of outraged religious parties activists and seminary students tried to attack Nasrullah’s house, leading to a clash. After that, they all went to a nearby mosque and claimed to have witnessed Nasrullah committing blasphemy. They demanded that he be arrested. Dawn
This is the kind of mass action that's of interest to Generational Dynamics. There have been blasphemy laws in Pakistan, Ireland, and Britain, but few people have been prosecuted in Ireland and Britain, and there have been no mass demands to convict someone of blasphemy as far as I know in more than the last century.
In Pakistan, in 1927, the British colonial rulers of the Indian sub-continent made it a criminal offence to commit “deliberate and malicious acts intended to outrage religious feelings of any class by insulting its religious belief”. The law did not discriminate between religions.
As in the case of the UK and Ireland, the blasphemy law was rarely enforced. In the 58 years between 1927 and 1985, only ten blasphemy cases were heard in a court under this law.
But things changed dramatically since the 1980s, and 4,000 blasphemy cases have been heard since 1985.
This enormous change would correspond to the time of the rise of the Pakistan generation corresponding to America's Generation-X. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this generational change is extremely significant.
I've been trying to think of a corresponding mass change in attitudes in America in the 1980s that's similar to Pakistan's mass change in Pakistan regarding blasphemy laws, and the obvious one is feminism. In the 1960s, women's lib was a positive political force that addressed real problems. But in the 1980s feminism became extremely destructive. In divorce courts, charges of family violence exploded against fathers, with anecdotal evidence indicating that over 95% of them were phony, manufactured charges -- just like most of the 4,000 charges of blasphemy in Pakistan since 1985.
Possibly the height of feminist rampage was the "Duke Lacrosse rape case." In 2006, a black woman named Crystal Gail Mangum, alias Janette Rivers, claimed that several members of the Duke College lacrosse team had raped her. District attorney Mike Nifong kept pursuing criminal charges against the team, for months after he knew for a fact that the alleged attack had never occurred. (See "Collapse of Duke rape case represents cultural change") This is exactly like blasphemy cases in Pakistan, which are pursued even when it's known that accusations are false. It's worth pointing out that the New York Times editorially joined Nifong in the false allegations, even when it was known that they were false.
There is little difference between a jihadist who makes false claims of blasphemy on the one hand, and the New York Times and Mike Nifong on the other hand. In all three cases, they pursued charges that they knew were false, and jumped in the sewer from where they could throw feces at anyone who disagreed with them. Express Tribune (Islamabad)
In his book Clash of Civilizations, Samuel P. Huntington, described how small regional wars expand into much larger wars. Belligerents in the war identify themselves as part of larger rather than smaller groups -- e.g., Muslims instead of Bosnians, or Christians instead of Croatians -- in order to rally other nations in similar identity groups to their side. This process of "Identity Group Expansion" unites belligerents on both sides, and makes a small war into a larger war. In the modern era, al-Qaeda linked jihadists have very effectively used blasphemy laws as a tool to effect Identity Group Expansion.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these are examples of mass phenomena that are typical of generational hatreds. As I explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust", this is also the same behavior that led to the 1930s Holocaust. This kind of mass generational hatred only leads to one place: catastrophe.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Sep-12 World View -- France closes embassies after magazine publishes Mohammed satire thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(20-Sep-2012)
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Russia reveals a huge diamond mine in Siberia
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A militant group called Hezb-i-Islami (Party of Islam) claimed responsibility for one of the most deadly insurgent attacks in Kabul, Afghanistan, this year, after a suicide bomber detonated a car filled with explosives on a main thoroughfare. Most of the victims were South Africans, packed into a minivan on their way to work at the airport. The suicide bomber rammed into the minivan, creating a huge explosion whose shockwaves were felt in many parts of the city, sending the minivan flying at least 160 feet from its original location. ABC News
In a move that strikes at the heart of the strategy for withdrawing Nato forces from Afghanistan by 2014, the U.S. has announced that it will no longer conduct joint operations with Afghan soldiers. These joint operations are an essential component of the withdrawal strategy, because they're needed to train the Afghan soldiers to defend themselves after Nato leaves. Now they're going to be left on their own without having been properly trained.
The decision may have been made in panic, as none of America's Nato allies were informed of the decision before it was announced. The decision was made in reaction to a series of killings of Nato soldiers by the Afghan partner soldiers they were supposed to be working with and training. It turns out that many of them had joined the Afghan army to await an opportunity to kill Americans and other Nato forces, and then flee back to their Taliban barracks. So far in 2012, 51 Nato soldiers have been killed in this way, 8 of them over the last weekend.
The Obama administration had implemented a "surge" strategy, attempting to emulate President Bush's successful surge strategy in Iran in 2007. However, as I've written many times in the last three years, a Generational Dynamics analysis shows significant generational differences between Iraq and Afghanistan that make it impossible for the same surge strategy to work.
The fundamental difference is that in Iraq's two previous generational crisis wars, Iraqis put aside sectarian (Sunni vs Shia) differences to fight an external enemy. So they had no trouble cooperating to eject another foreign intruder, al-Qaeda in Iraq.
But Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was an extremely bloody sectarian civil war, with Sunni Pashtuns (Taliban) fighting against Shia Hazaris. There isn't a snowflake's chance in hell that the Sunni Taliban are going to agree to a peace deal with Nato.
In fact, Tuesday's announcement reflects exactly that. The Afghan army is infiltrated with Sunni Taliban soldiers who are committed to jihad against Nato and America, as well as against the Shia Hazaris with whom they're supposed to be uniting.
The Nato leadership hopes that once the furor over the American anti-Muslim film dies down, then Nato can resume joint patrols with the Afghans. But almost all of those 51 incidents this year occurred long before that furor began, and so the Nato plan for smooth withdrawal from Afghanistan remains wishful thinking. The real danger, and quite a realistic one, is the complete collapse of the Afghan army, such as what happened when the Americans withdrew from Vietnam in 1974. Guardian (London) and Khaleej Times (Dubai)
According to an assessment of China's nuclear weapons strategy, China has a serious dilemma:
There's just no end to the imagination of financial criminals in today's world culture of fraud and extortion, and a new kind of fraud has been revealed in China. Many firms had borrowed billions of dollars from banks, and pledged warehouses containing stacks of stored steel as collateral. Now many of those firms are defaulting, and the banks are discovering that the warehouses are ghosts -- they either don't exist, or they're empty. Many firms pledged the same warehouses as collateral for multiple loans. According to an analyst in Shanghai, "What we have seen so far is just the tip of the iceberg. The situation will get worse as poor demand, slumping prices and tight credit from banks create a domino effect on the industry." Reuters and ZeroHedge
World diamond markets may soon become chaotic with sharply falling prices, after Russia revealed a huge diamond mine in Siberia, with enough diamonds to supply global markets for another 3,000 years. The diamond mine was actually discovered in 1971, but it was kept secret because the Russians did not want to risk losing money from their own lucrative diamond sales. CS Monitor
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. announces end of joint operations with Afghan soldiers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(19-Sep-2012)
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Quote: 'There won't be a war because it's bad for business!'
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Japanese in Beijing has suspended passport services, and is bolstering its defenses around the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, after media reports indicate that a flotilla of around 1,000 Chinese fishing boats was sailing towards them. Hundreds of Japanese businesses and the country's embassy suspended services in China on Tuesday, expecting further escalation in violent protests over a territorial dispute between Asia's two biggest economies. Reuters
China is trying to hurt Japan economically, to gain leverage in its campaign to take control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. In the 2010 confrontations, China took revenge on Japan by terminating shipments of rare earth minerals, needed for manufacturing of many of Japan's electronic products. In the current confrontation, the Beijing government is encouraging the Chinese people to demonstrate and protest against Japanese businesses in China. The government urged protesters not to use violence, but that part of the message is clearly not getting through. Protesters torched a Panasonic factory and Toyota dealership, looted and ransacked Japanese department stores and supermarkets in several cities. China's National Tourism Administration ordered travel companies last week to cancel tours to Japan over the weeklong National Day holiday in early October. AP and Bloomberg
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is urging strong punitive sanctions against Japan, for its "well-orchestrated plan" to take control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, according to the CCP's official newspaper:
"The "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands by Japan after "purchasing" them from a "private owner" is ridiculous and cannot change the fact that they are Chinese territory. ... China should take strong countermeasures, especially economic sanctions, to respond to Japan's provocations. Military consideration, however, should be the last choice.The United States has frequently used Article XXI Security Exceptions of the WTO (taken from the earlier General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade) to impose economic sanctions on other countries. The security exception clause says a country cannot be stopped from taking any action it considers necessary to protect its security interests. That means a country can impose sanctions on enterprises, financial institutions, organizations and even other countries' central and local governments. Taking a cue from the US' practice, China can use the security exception clause to reduce the export of some important materials to Japan.
China didn't announce any sanctions against the Philippines in April, but it froze banana imports from that country in response to Manila's aggressive attitude in the Huangyan Island dispute. Though the economic countermeasure forced the Philippines on the back foot, it also harmed the interests of some Chinese enterprises.
So it is important for China to devise a sanction plan against Japan that would cause minimum loss to Chinese enterprises.
The US' capability to impose economic sanctions on other countries is based on its economic strength, huge share in global trade, financial institutions and global intelligence network. China, too, has the capability to impose sanctions on other countries now that it is the second largest economy, has the largest foreign reserves, and is the largest exporter and second largest importer.
An analysis of Sino-Japanese economic interdependence shows that Japan's economy will suffer severely if China were to impose sanctions on it. China's loss would be relatively less. ...
So it's clear that China can deal a heavy blow to the Japanese economy without hurting itself too much by resorting to sanctions.
Apart from its reliance on China, Japan has been suffering from other economic ills. First, Japan's massive government debt is increasing substantially. ... Third, Japan's fiscal deterioration is likely to continue. There are enough indications that Japan's economic growth in 2013 will slow down or slip into another recession. The irreversible trend of long-term economic downturn, combined with Japan's aging population, will eat into the country's household savings, and the declining purchasing power of the Japanese will increase Japan's fiscal debt. ...
But instead of blindly boycotting Japanese goods, China should work out a comprehensive plan which should include imposition of sanctions and taking precautionary measures against any Japanese retaliation. China should also have several rounds of policies ready to undermine the Japanese economy at the least cost of Chinese enterprises.
Furthermore, in case Chinese enterprises suffer because of the sanctions, the Chinese government should be prepared to compensate them. And once China imposes sanctions on Japan, the government should ensure that all enterprises in the country, domestic and foreign, obey the rules."
How many times have people told me that Generational Dynamics is wrong about some geopolitical thing, saying, "There won't be a war because it's bad for business, and the business owners on both sides will make sure that there won't be a war." That whole concept is silly since, of course, if it were true then there never would be any wars.
But now you're seeing that in fact "bad for business" does not STOP war preparations, it PROPELS them. The fact that "business is good" between Japan and China does not mean there won't be a war; to the contrary, "business is good" only becomes an additional weapon to be used in the preliminaries. And as the quote above from China Daily notes, China has already used economic warfare against the Philippines of the Scarborough Shoal, some islands that are clearly the Philippines' sovereign territory. The Chinese aren't saying that a war would be bad for business. They're saying, let's use economic warfare, and if that doesn't work, then we'll use military warfare.
The Chinese always talk about how they want "harmonious relations" with everyone. What they mean by that is, "Relations will be harmonious as long as you do everything we demand, and give us everything of yours we want. Otherwise, we'll kill you."
Some web site readers of my previous article had a a heated discussion over whether we should come to Japan's defense against China, in view of the horrific atrocities that the Japanese committed during World War II. Leading the "anti" side of the debate was someone from the Silent generation who experienced some of those atrocities.
I have two points to make. The first is something I've said before: The United States has no choice. The U.S. became Policeman of the World with the Truman Doctrine, put forth by President Harry Truman in 1947. Since then, we've signed defense treaties with numerous countries, and all of them would go into total panic if we repudiated our treaty with Japan.
The second is more generational. Once upon a time, the British and the colonists committed atrocities on one another. A little later, the North and South committed atrocities on one another. In WW II, Germany and Italy joined Japan as our enemies, while Russia was our friend. Since then, new generations have replaced all of those people. In some cases, the new generations decided they like us, and in other cases the new generations decided they hate us. New American generations are barely aware of the atrocities our enemies committed, and they're equally unaware of such things as the firebombing of Dresden or the nuking of Japan.
A generational crisis war transforms a country, gives the country a new character, and makes it a different country than it was before the crisis war. World War II transformed America completely, changing it from a laissez-faire economy to a heavily regulated economy, and from an isolationist nation to the Policemen of the World. Essentially, every nation starts from "square one" in the Recovery Era that follows a crisis war.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Sep-12 World View -- China declares economic war on Japan, and sends 1,000 boat flotilla thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(18-Sep-2012)
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Leon Panetta says that China and Japan are heading toward war
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Thousands of Chinese held demonstrations, some of them violent, against Japan's claims to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, in cities across China. Japanese officials warned citizens in China not to taxis alone or speak loudly in Japanese while in public. In some cities, Japanese factories, grocery shops, restaurants and car dealerships were damaged or looted. In Beijing, over a thousand marchers hurled water bottles at the Japanese embassy, chanting, "Knock down the little Japanese," "Long live the People's Republic of China" and "China will prevail." The protests are expected to continue at least through Tuesday, the 81st anniversary of Japan's 1931 invasion of Manchuria.
Demonstrations also spread to some American cities. About 1,000 people, organized by the Houston Diaoyu Islands Coalition, gathered Saturday morning at Chinatown in Houston to assert China's ownership of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. In Chicago's Chinatown, more than 60 overseas Chinese organizations and business entities joined force in organizing anti-Japan protests on Saturday. LA Times and China Radio International
Japan calls them the Senkaku Islands, and China calls them the Diaoyu Islands. But Taiwan also claims them as being part of Taiwan (as opposed to mainland China), and Taiwan calls them the Diaoyutai Islands. Beijing considers Taiwan to be part of mainland China, and so has no objections to Taiwan's claims on the disputed islands. China is requesting that Taiwan cooperate with Beijing in opposing Japan's claims to the islands. But a Taiwanese official responded:
"The Republic of China [Taiwan] has indisputable sovereignty over the Diaoyutai Islands. In light of the long-running sovereignty dispute across the Taiwan Strait, the idea of cross-strait cooperation to resolve the territorial row is unseemly."
U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon E. Panetta warned that Asian countries could end up in war if governments keep up their "provocative behavior." According to Panetta:
"I am concerned that when these countries engage in provocations of one kind or another over these various islands, that it raises the possibility that a misjudgment on one side or the other could result in violence, and could result in conflict.And that conflict would then have the potential of expanding."
Panetta made the remarks as he traveled to Asia, where he plans to visit Japan, China and New Zealand.
To anyone who has been closely following this issue, as I have, it's perfectly clear that Panetta is right. China is provoking military confrontations with the Japanese near the Senkaku/Diaoyu/Diaoyutai Islands, and will not back down under any circumstances, while a backdown by Japan would be extremely humiliating and destabilizing. AFP
When Hosni Mubarak was president of Egypt, he was able to keep the Sinai, the region near the border with Israel populated by Bedouins, under tight control. Since Mubarak's overthrow, the Sinai has become increasingly lawless, and infiltrated by al-Qaeda linked militants, particularly Jund al-Sharia in recent months. On August 5, armed militants ambushed and killed 16 Egyptian soldiers on the border with Israel. The public was furious with the new president Mohamed Morsi especially when it was revealed that Israeli intelligence had warned the Egyptians in advance that an attack was coming. Morsi reacted by send army units into the Sinai to root out the militants, but the effort has been largely a failure.
On Sunday, al-Qaeda linked militants attacked Egypt's security headquarters in northern Sinai with machine guns and mortar bombs and fought troops elsewhere in the desert region, killing one soldier and wounding seven. Two days earlier, on Friday, militias stormed a base housing the international peacekeeping force, the Multinational Force and Observers (MFO), wounding four. The MFO was established in 1981 to implement the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt. The base has some 1000 MFO personnel, mostly Colombian and Fijian, and is commanded by the U.S. It's believed that Jund al-Sharia was responsible for all these attacks. Long War Journal and Australian AP and Israel National News
Debka, which sometimes gets things wrong, is quoting its military intelligence sources as saying that Sunday's attacks by Salafi Bedouin and al-Qaeda militia marks a major and dangerous escalation in the Sinai situation, and that the jihadists now plan to attack Israeli targets. Debka assigns the blame to a different al-Qaeda linked group, the Army of Islam, which it says are now "at the forefront of the violent Islamist protest against the United States sweeping across the Middle East and Asia." Debka notes that because of other international issues, there is little public knowledge of the true impact. Debka
Last year's floods were Thailand's worst disaster in living memory. Since then, the country has been doing as much as possible to prevent a recurrence. Water management through Bangkok has been improved, including the dredging of over 500 kilometers of canals in Bangkok. Reinforced walls have been built around industrial centers, after worldwide availability of hard disks and other computer components was crippled over flooding at Bangkok factories for companies like Hitachi, Nikon, Sony and Honda. But in the long run, it's a losing battle. The increasing population is sucking up ground water, causing parts of Bangkok to sink further. An architecture firm made headlines recently when it designed a Bangkok cityscape floating on water. By 2030, Bangkok may have become a modern-day Atlantis. The Diplomat
In my opinion, Barack Obama's most important speech in the 2008 campaign was his speech in Berlin, which I wrote about in July, 2008, in "Barack Obama in Berlin calls for greater European militarism,". The German press said that "Germany has caught Obamania!" as he faced huge, wildly enthusiastic crowds. What was obvious at the time was that the German people and the German press paid no attention to what Obama was actually saying, which was highly militaristic, but with promises to significantly improve America's image in the Arab and Muslim world.
Today, the German press are saying that Obama's Mideast policies have failed and "Obama's Middle East policy is in ruins," although the same commentators hasten to add that Mitt Romney's reaction was "not just nonsense, but partisan maneuvering." One German commentator wrote of the Arab nations, "America hardly has influence in the region any longer, and now sees itself confronted with anti-American sentiment in places where it no longer controls the dictators. Meanwhile, forces that simultaneously exploit and spurn America are gaining influence."
However, there is still one group of Europeans that unabashedly adore President Obama - the minorities in France. Obama’s 2008 victory had an explosive impact there, shining a harsh light on the dearth of French blacks or Arabs in positions of power and offering the country’s minorities a new source of inspiration. For example, Anthony Borval, a 29 year old black Frenchman of Caribbean descent, says:
"It was intense, I felt almost American. Obama indirectly sent us a message that anything was possible, a message of hope for minorities in France, where it’s difficult for us to succeed. ...His victory taught French people of colour to believe in ourselves. Today, I still feel great pride that an African-American is running the world’s superpower."
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, if you ignore rhetoric, then there's little difference in outcomes if Obama's first term had instead been President Bush's third term. What I think is interesting about this situation is the difference between "likeability" and "policy," a difference that appears to be extremely important in the current election. Polls indicate that Obama is far more "likeable" than Romney, but many Obama supporters are extremely disillusioned about Obama's policies.
A historical example of this difference is Winston Churchill. He was not well liked, but he became prime minister because of his policies toward the Nazis. Churchill was still disliked during WW II, and was thrown out of office a nanosecond after the war ended. So as a new world war approaches, anyone still alive when the war ends will have leave to contemplate the roles that likeability and policy played in the war. Spiegel and France 24
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Sep-12 World View -- Jund al-Sharia jihadists clash with Egypt's army in Sinai thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(17-Sep-2012)
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State Dept. orders evacuations of Americans out of Tunisia and Sudan
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The State Department on Saturday ordered the departure of all family members and non-essential U.S. government personnel from its embassies in Sudan and Tunisia and warned U.S. citizens against any travel to the two countries due to security concerns over rising anti-American violence. Saturday is the fifth day of anti-American protests in some 20 countries in the Mideast and beyond. AP and State Dept. (re Tunisia) and State Dept. (re Sudan)
Libyan officials believe that Tuesday's attack on the US consulate in Benghazi, killing US ambassador Chris Stevens, was planned, "meticulously executed" and may have involved foreign elements. According to Libya's General National Congress president Mohammed al-Megaryef:
"There was planning. It was not a peaceful protest which degenerated into an armed attack or aggression. That's how it was planned.[The attack] was prepared, especially since it coincided with the date of September 11.
There are non-Libyan elements on Libyan soil and they plan to carry out their own agendas on our territory.
The attack itself and the manner in which the attack occurred... confirms that this was planned and programmed to achieve a purpose.
I do not exclude discovering things that will link Al Qaeda and the US consulate attack."
US military and intelligence agencies have launched an elaborate manhunt in Libya against the militants suspected of staging the most serious assault on an American diplomatic mission in decades.
Early indications are that the attack was carried out not by the main al-Qaida terror group but "al-Qaida sympathizers." A leading suspect is the Libyan-based Islamic militant group Ansar al-Shariah, led by former Guantanamo detainee Sufyan bin Qumu. Australian Broadcasting and AP
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In the largest anti-Japan protests since China and Japan normalized diplomatic ties in 1972, more than 70,000 Chinese staged rallies Saturday in at least 28 cities to demand that Japan surrender the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands to China. The largest demonstration, in Qingdao, Shandong Province, attracted as many as 30,000 people and evolved into rioting as protestors torched as many as 10 Japanese enterprises, including a Panasonic factory. In Beijing, police deployed more than 100 officers as well as 100 vehicles around the Japanese Embassy to prevent protesters from taking violent action. But clashes ensued as an estimated 1,000 protestors busted barricades, blocked traffic and hurled plastic bottles and eggs onto the embassy grounds. Carrying Chinese flags, they chanted "Protect the Diaoyu Islands" and "Slap economic sanctions on Japan." When there are protests against China's government, the Chinese security forces clamp down hard, but these rallies appeared to have the tacit approval of Chinese authorities. Japan Times
Although the United States is nominally committed to supporting Japan in a confrontation over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, according to the terms of a 1960 defense treaty, many Japanese do not believe that America will honor that commitment. According to one Japanese analyst:
"There is a perception in Japan that the U.S. commitment is ambiguous. If China thinks Japan will hesitate to respond or that America will hesitate, that will embolden the Chinese. It’s better that America sends a clear, explicit message now than have to respond to something worse later.If Japan loses the islands and the U.S. doesn’t come to aid Japan, the credibility of not only the U.S. alliance with Japan but of all U.S. alliances globally would be severely harmed."
This last sentence is extremely significant. The U.S. has defense treaties with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and New Zealand (ANZUS treaty), Israel, Europe, Iceland, and others. All of these countries have cut back on their own military in the last 65 years because they've counted on U.S. protection. If the U.S. repudiated its treaty commitment to Japan, then every one of these other countries would go into total panic, with disastrous geopolitical consequences. Time
China's non-Communist parties on Saturday released a joint statement expressing strong indignation over, and condemnation of, Japan's "purchase" of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. What fascinated me about this story is that I thought all non-Communist parties in China were against the law, so imagine my surprise that here's a bunch of them issuing a statement. The statement was issued by the central committees of:
According to the statement:
"China's non-Communist parties voice strong indignation over and rigorously condemn the move.Most non-Communist parties were born during the time of war against Japan's invasion (in the 1930s and '40s). Having had fought for the Chinese nation's independence and liberation, these parties, traditionally being patriotic and peace-loving, are staunch guards of the nation's territorial sovereignty," the statement added.
The Chinese nation is peace-loving, so are its people. China has no intention to impinge on other countries' territorial sovereignty, but will not tolerate any infringement on its own sovereignty by other countries. Long gone is the time when the Chinese nation was bullied by others.
If the Japanese government underestimates Chinese people's determination, courage or strength, it would be a miscalculation and they are doomed to fail."
The massive new quantitative easing program (QE3) announced by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke is unlikely to have any effect whatsoever, based on the result of a survey of nearly 1,500 CFOs from a broad range of public and private companies. The survey was conducted jointly by CFO Magazine (where I used to be the Technology Editor) and Duke University. The QE3 program is supposed to make it easier for banks to lend money to businesses at lower interest rates, so that businesses will use the money ton invest and create jobs. The main finding is this:
"U.S. finance chiefs say that interest rate reductions of 1 or 2 percentage points would not alter their capital spending plans, indicating that potential monetary policy actions by the Federal Reserve are unlikely to spur the corporate sector to action."
The report showed that 91% of the 1,500 CFOs polled wouldn’t bolster their spending plans even if the Fed’s programs successfully lowered interest rates by one percentage point. And 84% said a two-point reduction in rates wouldn’t change their spending plans either. According to a finance professor at Duke, "The survey paints a stark picture. In current circumstances, lower interest rates will not spur investment. The potential QE3 is doomed."
The irony is that Ben Bernanke made his reputation based on his research that "proved" that the 1930s Great Depression could have been avoided if the Fed at that time had lowered interest rates by a small amount. This finding has now been totally disproved, as Generational Dynamics predicted years ago, and now Bernanke is in a state of total panic, hoping against hope for a miracle. Fox Business and CFO Survey Press Release (PDF)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Sep-12 World View -- Huge Anti-Japan protests spread across China, turn violent thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(16-Sep-2012)
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Egypt's 'million man march' fizzles as protesters attack in Sudan and Tunisia
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Arab protests at U.S. embassies in the Mideast continued for a fourth day on Friday, but the promised "million man march" in Cairo Egypt fizzled for the most part, although a smaller demonstration continues. There were small demonstrations throughout the Mideast, but the attacks in Sudan and Nigeria were more significant. In Khartoum, angry protesters attacked the British and German Embassies on Friday, setting fire to parts of the buildings. They also tore down the German flag and raised an Islamist banner. In Tunis, at least two people were killed and 29 others were wounded on Friday when police fought hundreds of protesters who ransacked the U.S. embassy. Hundreds of protesters wielding petrol bombs, stones and sticks had charged at the security forces protecting the embassy before jumping a wall to invade the compound. "Obama, Obama, we are all Osamas," they chanted. They pulled down the U.S. flag flying over the embassy, burned it, and replaced it with a black flag emblazoned with the Shahada, the Islamic declaration of faith. The Sun (London) and Spiegel and Reuters
Last week, Japan's government "purchased" the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands from a family that it recognizes as the owner. The islands are disputed by China, and the purpose of the purchase was to head off some highly nationalistic actions by the Mayor of Tokyo that the federal government wanted to prevent. However, the Chinese viewed this as a sign of weakness, and sent six warships to the islands. The Foreign Ministry issued a statement:
"Two Chinese surveillance ship fleets have arrived at waters around the Diaoyu Islands and adjacent islands on September 14, 2012, to start patrol and law enforcement. These law enforcement and patrol activities are designed to demonstrate China’s jurisdiction over the islands and safeguard its maritime interests."
Japan's Foreign Minister said, "I’d like to underscore that we should never let the situation escalate. We have strong hopes the Chinese government will respond to the situation in an appropriate and also a calm manner."
This is probably a good time to remind readers that the Senkaku/Diaoyu are considered Japanese territory under the mutual defense treaty that the United States and Japan signed in 1960. Under the terms of the treaty, we're obligated to go to war with China to defend the islands if China attacks them. AFP and Xinhua
In Beijing, at least six Japanese were reported to have been attacked. In Shanghai, one man was injured when hot noodles were poured on him. The attacks were triggered by the confrontation over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands, and are expected to increase in the next few days. September 18 marks the 81st anniversary of the brutal Japanese occupation of China, a memory that still evokes xenophobic reactions in China. The Hindu
The confrontation between China and Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands has spread to Greece. About 200 members of the Chinese community in Greece gathered outside the Japanese embassy building, raising banners and placards in Chinese, English and Greek saying, "Chinese expats in Greece firmly oppose Japanese occupation to Chinese territory Diaoyu Islands." Xinhua
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Sep-12 World View -- Japan/China confrontation brews as China sends warships thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(15-Sep-2012)
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Stocks surge again after Fed announces QE3
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Pan-Arab nationalist demonstrations at U.S. embassies spread to numerous countries throughout the Mideast and beyond on Thursday. There were small protests in Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Bangladesh and Iraq, and continuing demonstrations in Egypt and Libya. The biggest protest on Thursday was at the U.S. embassy in Sanaa, the capital of Yemen, where anti-American and anti-Israeli protesters stormed the embassy, chanting "death to America" and "death to Israel." Four protesters were killed and dozens injured by police gunfire, but no embassy personnel were killed.
Yemen's president, Libya's president and Egypt's president all apologized for the embassy attacks. The Libyan government says that it's arrested four men involved in the killing of U.S. ambassador Chris Stevens, but that hasn't been confirmed. National Yemen and CNN
There's been a lot of talk about a lit fuse that's leading to a huge explosion in the Mideast, similar to the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution. Perhaps that's true, and the Generational Dynamics prediction is for a major sectarian Sunni vs Shia war, but I see little signs of it so far. The 2005 Danish cartoon protests looked they would explode, but they fizzled within a few weeks. The "Arab Spring" protests have been going on for almost 20 months, and the protests we've been seeing this week have not, so far, been as big as those. So it's possible that the situation will explode in the next couple of weeks, but it's at least equally likely that the current round of anti-American protests will fizzle, at least for now. I would suggest to everyone that you not go too far out on a limb predicting a new revolution.
I continue to be impressed with the role of charges of blasphemy as a common theme in the jihadist movement. The protesters in Cairo and Benghazi were not protesting America's support for Israel, or for drone strikes, or for Guantanamo or against Christians. They were protesting blasphemy. The Danish cartoon protests were for blasphemy. In Pakistan, jihadists groups kill Shia and Sufi worshippers almost on a daily basis, and the reason given is always blasphemy, as I described in "26-Apr-12 World View -- New report examines terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan",
For some reason, charges of blasphemy seem to be able to stir up extremely angry passions among Sunni Muslims. In Pakistan, there have been numerous examples where the population simply didn't care if some perfectly innocent person was murdered or jailed, if there were fatuous charges of blasphemy involved. Charges of blasphemy have targeted far more Muslims than non-Muslims.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a mass phenomenon that's typical of generational hatreds. In the past, I've hypothesized that this behavior in Pakistan is similar to the refusal of American prosecutors to investigate and prosecute banksters for massive incidents of fraud. And as I explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust", this is also the same behavior that led to the 1930s Holocaust. This kind of mass generational hatred only leads to one place: catastrophe.
My interpretation of the situation is as follows: Sunni jihadists have been trying for years to repeat the success of the Iran's 1979 Great (Shia) Islamic Revolution, but to do so in a Sunni Islam country, and they've failed over and over and over. This is just another try that's likely to fail, but the one thing they use repeatedly to stir up mass fury in Sunni crowds is charges of blasphemy.
Friday has always been a big day in the Arab Spring protests, because the mosques fill up for midday prayers on Fridays. After the midday prayers are over, people pour out of the mosques into the streets for protests. Protests have been non-stop since Tuesday in Cairo Egypt near the U.S. embassy. The Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafist Nour Party have called for a "million man protest" on Friday after midday prayers, with the protest once again motivated by charges of blasphemy. Al-Ahram (Cairo)
The Federal Reserve announced a new quantitative easing program on Thursday. In the QE3 program, the Fed will "print" $40 billion per month, and use it to purchase an equal amount of mortgage debt. This will theoretically lower mortgage interest rates, possibly to below 3% on a 30-year fixed mortgage, which will theoretically spur economic growth. All the previous programs have been failures, but theoretically "this time it's different" because the program is open-ended, and the mortgage debt purchases can continue indefinitely. Stocks surged on Wall Street as excited banksters and traders looked for ways that they could get their cuts of the new outlays. Bloomberg
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Sep-12 World View -- Pan-Arab Nationalism brings U.S. Embassies in Mideast under attack thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(14-Sep-2012)
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Increasingly nationalistic China sends warships to Senkaku Islands
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The Tuesday attack on the U.S. Consultate in Benghazi, Libya, that ended up killing four employees, including U.S. Ambassador Chris Stevens, was not a spontaneous mob attack triggered by a film about Mohammed. U.S. officials believe that al-Qaeda linked militants used the film as a cover to launch a military attack on the Consulate, to take revenge on Americans. The four Americans died in a coordinated assault by gunmen firing assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenades and carrying the black flag of an Islamic extremist group.
The Obama administration has ordered to additional warships into the Mediterranean, near the Libyan coast. An elite anti-terrorist unit of 40 Marines will be flown in to beef up security in the American embassy in Tripoli (not Benghazi). FBI agents, along with a team to protect them, will be sent to the Benghazi embassy to sift through the wreckage for evidence.
American officials won't discuss the nature of any planned military activity, but it's assumed that the plan is to identify the perpetrators and, at the very least, bring them to justice. CBS News and McClatchy
The film "Innocence of Muslims," that supposedly triggered the riots in Cairo and Benghazi, was apparently a scam. The movie was filmed in front of a green screen, with background scenary filled in later. The actors who took part in the movie were told that it was a war drama called "Desert Warrior," that had nothing to do with Mohammed or Islam. After they were done, an editing team dubbed in different words at specific points, to change the whole meaning of the movie. It's still not known who caused the movie to be made, but one person, 55 year old Nakoula Basseley Nakoula, has come forward. He is apparently an Egyptian expatriate Coptic Christian. The supposed filmmaker, Sam Bacile, cannot be found, and it's thought that Bacile is really Nakoula, based on Nakoula's middle name, "Basseley." AP and LA Times
Nationalism is increasing in countries around the world, as happens in every generational Crisis era. We've particularly discussed this nationalism many times with respect to China, Japan and the Philippines. Some people say that nationalism is a good thing, some say it's a bad thing. I do not assign a moral value to it, any more than I assign a moral value to a rain storm or a sunny day. I'm simply reporting the increases in nationalism and xenophobia as a weatherman reports the weather. It's what it is.
Having said that, American nationalism took a big spurt on Wednesday. On the political stage, President Obama began by expressing regret. Mitt Romney responded with a nationalistic speech, saying that harsher action was necessary, and the President shouldn't be apologizing. Then President Obama realized that he'd lose votes if he didn't become more nationalistic, and his next statement reflected that. Right now, there appears to be something of a ping pong match going on, with each side trying to out-nationalize the other.
A rainstorm can lead to good farm crop that feeds thousands of people, at least temporarily, or it can lead to a flood that drowns thousands of people. Nationalism can lead to a resolution of a dispute, at least temporarily, or it can lead to full-scale all out war. We'll have to wait and see how increased nationalism turns out this time.
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One of the four Americans killed in Libya on Tuesday was an online gamer, using the handle "Vile Rat" in the game "EVE Online." He was an avid participant of EVE, having served in the game’s virtual government as a cunning and influential intergalactic diplomat in a sprawling virtual galaxy. On Tuesday night, he wrote to his fellow gamers, "Assuming we don’t die tonight. We saw one of our ‘police’ that guard the compound taking pictures." He was dead a few hours later. Wired and AP
Just as an increasingly nationalistic America is sending warships to Libya, an increasingly nationalistic China is sending warships to the East China Sea.
The levels of nationalistic fury in China and Japan are continuing to grow over the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea. Japan's national government has purchased the islands from their private owners, effectively "nationalizing" them. In response, China's armed forces are sending two warships to the region, nominally to provide weather reports. According to a Chinese statement, the Chinese government will take all measures to safeguard national territorial sovereignty. "Long gone are the days when the Chinese territory could be grabbed only by an unequal treaty." The Asahi Shimbun (Tokyo) and Xinhua
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Sep-12 World View -- Increasingly nationalistic America sends warships and marines to Libya thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(13-Sep-2012)
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Catalonia demands independence from Spain
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About 2000 Salafi protesters, chanting "There is no god but Allah," protested in front of the United States embassy in Cairo, Egypt. Several dozen of the protesters climbed over the walls of the embassy and tore down a large American flag, replacing it with a black flag on which it was written: "There's no God but God and Muhammad is the prophet of God." What triggered the protests was an American made film, "Muhammad's Trial," posted on YouTube in July, that portrays Muhammad as a womanizer, pedophile and fraud. The controversial film is reportedly being produced by US-based expatriate Coptic-Christian Egyptians, including Esmat Zaklama and Morees Sadek, with the support of the Terry Jones Church in the United States. Al-Ahram (Cairo) and The Daily News Egypt
An armed angry mob attacked and set fire to the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, Libya, killing a consulate employee. The Benghazi attack followed the Cairo attack by several hours, and protestors claimed it was in response to the same film. Since the film has been available on YouTube for several weeks, there is speculation that both protests were organized by the same Salafist group. The situation is reminiscent of the "Danish cartoons" that depicted Muhammad. ( "Cartoon controversy explodes into worldwide confrontations between Muslims and Westerners") The cartoons were published in September, 2005, but nothing happened until January, 2006, when uncontrolled mobs in Syria and Lebanon attacked the Danish and Norwegian embassies. Al-Jazeera
As Spain becomes more and more deeply mired in the euro crisis, the Catalonia region is adding to Spain's problems by demanding independence. In particular, Catalonia wants to collect its own taxes and pay its own expenses. Catalonia has already requested a 5 billion euros bailout from Spain, but says that Catalonians pay 20 billion euros each year in taxes to Madrid, and so they should be able to get the 5 billion euros for free. Catalonia was one of the biggest benefactors of Spain's huge real estate bubble, and the region used the money from the bubble to go into further debt to pay for expensive new projects that it now can't afford. Irish Times
By the time that you read this on Wednesday morning, Germany's Verfassungsgericht (Federal Constitutional Court) will probably have ruled on an issue that has caused European politicians to hold their breaths for weeks: Is the European bailout found (European Stability Mechanism or ESM) legal under German constitutional law? A "NO" ruling would send the markets into chaos, and so it's thought unlikely that the court will make that ruling. However, many analysts expect a "YES" with restrictions: The ESM is OK so far, but if Europeans want to expand it, then doing so will require a vote of the Bundestag (Parliament), and passage there would be very seriously in doubt. Deutsche Welle
Greece's finance ministry has set up a "working group" to scour historical archives and determine how much Germany might own to Greece in outstanding reparations for Nazi war crimes during World War II. It's estimated that the total will come to $7.5 million, a small fraction of the money that Germany and the rest of Europe are spending to bail Greece out. Greek Reporter/AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Sep-12 World View -- American embassies in Cairo and Benghazi under attack thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(12-Sep-2012)
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Iran's rial currency crashes as sanctions hit oil revenues
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
Syria's Assad regime turns to 'barrel bombs' for more thorough extermination
Dissatisfied with the rate at which he can massacre innocent women and children in their homes, the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is turning to a more cataclysmic weapon. A "barrel bomb" is an ordinary barrel packed with TNT, oil and chunks of steel. Assad's regime is sending helicopters out to used these bombs to flatten entire residential civilian neighborhoods, spraying as much blood as possible. Telegraph (London) and Irish Independent Australia sending illegal migrants to Nauru and Manus islandsOver 100 illegal migrants from countries including Malaysia, Afghanistan and Pakistan arrive by boat or plane in Australia every day. On August 13, Australia announced that new migrants would be sent offshore to live in tents on Nauru and Manus islands, but that hasn't deterred the flow. The two islands together only have a capacity of 2100, and so the Australian government will be selective about whom they send there, hoping to deter others from coming to Australia. National Times (Australia) and Herald Sun (Australia)
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China's Xi Jinping disappears, spurring rumors of accident or assassination
Xi Jinping is the man who is expected to be chosen the new president of China in April of next year, when the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) makes its decennial generational change. However, Xi has not been seen in a week, and he's canceled scheduled meetings, leading to internet and media speculation that Xi is badly hurt, because of either a traffic accident or an assassination attempt. Xi has promised to reform China's economy and deal with "corruption and ill-discipline in the party" as a top priority, creating a number of enemies. China Post (Taiwan) and AP
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Iran's rial currence slid to a record low against the dollar on Monday, about half its value a year ago, after a slump of 17% since Thursday. At the end of last year Iran had $106 billion of official foreign reserves, enough to cover an ample 13 months of imports of goods and services in normal times. However, the reserves may have started falling as the sanctions have cut oil exports. Iran's monthly sales of crude oil, its major source of hard currency, may have dropped by nearly half in the course of this year. The crash in the rial is pushing up domestic consumer prices for food and other goods, adding to inflation that is already at double-digit levels. Reuters
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Sep-12 World View -- China's Xi Jinping disappears, spurring rumors of accident or assassination thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(11-Sep-2012)
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How to start a new business in America today
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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With Greece's membership in the eurozone hanging in the balance, Greek officials are struggling to cut another 11.5 billion euros of public spending out of the budget over the next two years. The Greeks have to convince the EU "troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- which arrived in Athens on Friday, that the cuts are real and will actually be implemented, unlike a number of previous promised cuts that were forgotten as soon as the bailout money was received. After Sunday's meeting, Greece's Finance Ministry said,
"They have objections to some of the measures. They want more details to understand some of the measures better.This is just the start, there is a long way to go."
The troika officials have to approve the cost cutting measures to secure the next tranche of the 31.5 billion euro EU-IMF bailout. Approval is also required from the Socialist and Democratic Left political parties. A decision will be reached by early October, just in time to save Greece from bankruptcy.
There's a lot of talk these days about "Grexit," Greece's exit from the euro currency. Last year I proposed the "Kick the Can Theory" for the European financial crisis. It says that if you want to know what's going to happen, just assume that European leaders will look for a way to "kick the can down the road," meaning that they'll do the minimum possible to postpone the crisis a little longer, to prevent a current disaster without fixing the problem, so that the crisis will recur in worse form weeks or months later. The Kick the Can Theory has been right every time so far, and so we can expect that the politicians will find some way to approve the bailout payment. Kathimerini
A wave of more than 20 attacks, thought to be by Sunni terrorists, on Sunday left hundreds injured and up to 100 dead across Iraq. The terrorist blasts were coordinated, targeting crowded marketplaces and security forces in at least 11 cities across the nation. In Baghdad, car bombs killed dozens in six mainly Shia Muslim neighborhoods. Sectarian attacks have been increasing in Iraq for the following reasons:
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the entire Mideast is headed for a major sectarian Sunni/Shia war. Australian Broadcasting and LA Times
In a potential escalation of the Syria conflict, France has started providing direct aid and money to rebel-controlled areas and is even considering supplying anti-aircraft weapons to the opposition. It's now been several weeks since Lakhdar Brahimi replaced Kofi Annan as Syria's "peace envoy," but as far as I know, he's accomplished nothing except to say several times that he has no idea what to do. RT
From the "Financial Topics" thread of the Generational Dynamics Forum, Higgenbotham is providing the following prudent and sage advice on how to start a new business in America today:
These would be my thoughts on starting a business.
First, get ready for a post-collapse world. In the current pre-collapse world, existing businesses are conditioned to operating in the pre-collapse environment. They will be lost post-collapse. This is when the prepared entrepreneur can step in.
To get ready for the post-collapse world, travel to a third world country or to a country that has already collapsed and observe how business is conducted. Talk to the locals to get an idea of what business conditions were like pre-collapse and try to envision how the conditions in the US that are different pre-collapse will change the post-collapse environment vis-a-vis the country you are observing. I chose to travel to one of the poorest areas of the former USSR to make observations. It was formerly pretty well off because it was a manufacturing area and not too far from Moscow.
Begin by pilot testing an idea with a very limited amount of capital at risk. My thought would be less than 10% of capital should be risked on the whole initial operation. Operate on a cash basis and under the radar. Let's say that a formula for laundry soap has been obtained and someone wants to make an attempt to manufacture this product. I would not rush headlong into buying equipment, renting space, and other things a conventional business person might do today. Instead, pay a contract manufacturing outfit to mix some up on a small scale, then figure out how to sell it. Observe what equipment the contract manufacturer is using and do some research because that equipment may be picked up for pennies on the dollar at auction when the bankruptcies roll in. If it's thought that the future of America will most resemble Detroit, Michigan or Las Vegas, Nevada, and there are probably better places to consider but people can understand what I am talking about by mentioning those places. Take the product there and live there a few months. Figure out what works best to move it in the post-collapse world of strip mall flea markets, craigslist, or whatever is envisioned. See if customers match the envisioned post-collapse profile and find out what else they need to buy where they would seek alternatives to the current distribution channels, in order to save a few bucks or which may be shut down, post-collapse. Probably enough said, but that's my general idea. Generational Dynamics Forum
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Sep-12 World View -- Iraq: 100 dead in a wave of sectarian terrorist attacks thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(10-Sep-2012)
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China backs down on forcing Hong Kong schools to teach 'patriotism'
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China has backed down on a plan to force Hong Kong children to take patriotism classes that whitewash the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre and the 1959 Great Leap Forward that killed tens of millions of people through starvation, and containing concepts such as,
"China's one party system is progressive, unifying and selfless, as opposed to western multiparty systems that are divisive and unhealthy."
The public has been increasingly furious about the plan for months, and when it was finally rolled out two weeks ago, it faced nine days of large protests, culminating in almost 100,000 protesters on Saturday outside government headquarters. Some protesters staged hunger strikes, and students had erected a replica of the democracy statue that symbolised the student-led 1989 Tiananmen protests in mainland China. As a result, the government backed down and said that the program would be "voluntary."
The rift between Hong Kong and Beijing seems to be growing every day, and Hong Kongers are increasingly contemptuous of mainlanders. As we reported last spring, the song "Locust World" is popular in Hong Kong, describing tourists from mainland China as "experts in stealing, cheating, deceiving and lying." Hong Kong speaks Cantonese, different from Mandarin that elite mainlanders speak. In China's last generational crisis civil war, Mao's Communist Revolution that climaxed in 1949, those who were able to escape to Formosa (Taiwan) did so by passing through Hong Kong. It's likely that Hong Kong will again play a pivotal role in China's next crisis civil war. Al-Jazeera and Telegraph (London)
It was high food prices that sparked the "Arab Spring" uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Syria early last year, and now soaring food and fuel prices are sparking a wave of social protest across the West Bank, as thousands of Palestinians took to the streets. The problems are exacerbated by a very high unemployment rate, and by the fact that many of those employed by the government are not being paid because of a budget crunch facing the Palestinian Authority (PA). International doners have slashed their support from $2 billion in 2008 to less than $1 billion this year, of which only half has been delivered. Of the $500 million that has been pledged but not delivered this year, 40% is due from the United States, but is being held up by Congress. The rest of the undelivered funds were pledged by Arab states. AFP and LA Times
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Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas said on Saturday that the ongoing protests are legitimate and that:
"The PA will not intervene, but we will stand in the face of those who may try to sabotage or set fire or damage (public properties). We are ready to respond as much as we can, but protests must be civilized and popular. ...We do not play around with the people’s fate. I am against armed uprisings. I am against opening fire because I know how the consequences of doing so affect our people. I am pro-peaceful popular demonstrations whether they are against the [Israeli] occupation or against the PA."
At the same news conference, Abbas said that the PA would go to the United Nations General Assembly seeking non-member status on September 27, despite United States opposition:
"When we go to the UN, we will say we are a state under occupation … we have 133 states who recognize a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, in addition to dozens of other countries with whom we have good relations and diplomatic representation.We have before us two hard options; either we go to the UN knowing what to expect after that, or we don’t go and yet by so doing we will be losing out."
Abbas would like to get U.N. Security Council recognition of a Palestinian state, but the U.S. has said it would veto any such proposal. A vote by the General Assembly would give the Palestinian territories non-member status, but not full recognition. Abbas had intended to go to the United Nations last year, but was deterred by a worldwide lobbying effort by the United States. Ma'an News (Bethlehem)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Sep-12 World View -- Palestinian president Abbas to return to the U.N. on September 27 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(9-Sep-2012)
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Japan-China island dispute being driven by popular nationalism
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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In the past seven years, there have been three major crisis points in China-Japan relations: spring 2005, fall 2010, and now this summer. All of them have been related to so-called "history issues," such as perceived shortcomings in apologies by Japan for its wartime conduct, textbook portrayals of Japan’s wartime conduct and visits by Japanese politicians to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which contains the graves of Japanese wartime generals. Additionally, the latest two crises have been sparked by the territorial dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu island chain. In the two previous crises, both governments participated in overt escalation of tension, but ultimately both had to back off after the tension had escalated beyond expectations. This time, both governments tried to quell tensions from the beginning, but to no avail. Activists from both countries visited the islands against the wishes of the governments, and were celebrated in the press and blogs back home as "heroes." Polls show a distinct trend line, that more people each year in each country are without "positive feelings" towards the other country. This increase in nationalism on both sides, as both countries go deeper into a generational Crisis era, is an early sign that war is approaching. Jamestown
In a move that surprised a lot of people, Canada on Friday severed all diplomatic ties with Iran. The statement by Foreign Minister John Baird lists a number of reasons:
Canada's diplomats have already left Tehran, and Iran's diplomats have been given five days to leave Canada. National Post (Ontario)
Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird said that the embassy in Tehran was being closed primarily over concerns for the safety of Canadian diplomats. "Our diplomats serve Canada as civilians and their safety is my number one priority. They don’t sign up to be put in harm’s way." He did not specify what threats Canada's diplomats were facing. The danger may have been related to the 1979 hostage crisis involving 50 American diplomats in the U.S. embassy in Tehran who were held hostage for 444 days. At that time, Canada helped several American diplomats escape Iran by allowing them to pretend to be Canadians. More recently, protesters stormed the British Embassy in November after the United Kingdom tightened sanctions against the country, including targeting its central bank. The British Embassy in Iran remains closed and the U.S. hasn’t had a diplomatic mission there since 1979. Canada.com
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Sep-12 World View -- Canada severs all diplomatic relations with Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(8-Sep-2012)
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60 migrants drown in smuggling attempt from Turkey to Greece
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Last December, shortly after he became the new chief of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario Draghi opened the floodgates and offered unlimited amounts of euros to banks in 3-year loans at 1% interest, with the intention that they would lend that money to businesses and spur growth. Hundreds of European banks took advantage of the money, borrowing something like 1 trillion euros in the program, known as the Long-Term Financing Operation or LTRO. But the program was a failure, in that the banks hardly lent any money to businesses, using the money instead to pay off some of their own higher interest loans. They did use the money to purchase Spanish and Italian government bonds, pushing down yields (interest rates) on those bonds, and allowing those countries to continue spending as before and go ever deeper into unsustainable debt. However, even that effect ended when the LTRO program ended at the end of March, and the eurozone has been deteriorating steadily since then, with lots of talk of "Grexit", an exit by Greece.
Since then, Draghi has promised "to do anything" to save the euro, and on Thursday he opened the floodgates again. Instead of pouring money into the banks, he proposed to pour it directly into the coffers of governments in trouble, by purchasing the bonds of any country in trouble on the open market, without any built-in limitations. There are two requirements:
There's nothing new about this. In the case of several previous bailouts, the country said for months, up till the last nanosecond, that no bailout was necessary, and only said they needed a bailout when the bailout was announced. And we know what's happened with the austerity measures demanded of Greece, Spain and Italy.
There's something else that we've heard before: Draghi claims that it won't even be necessary to bail anyone out, because investors will know that it's safe to buy bonds from the troubled country with the ECB backstop. Thus the scenario that Draghi imagines is as follows: When investors start demanding high bond yields (interest rates) from a troubled country, the ECB will start buying that country's bonds until the yields fall to sustainable levels again. But since investors know that's going to happen, they won't demand high yields in the first place.
But investors also know that if the ECB is going to buy a country's bonds on the open market as long as necessary to push yields down, then the country's politicians and labor unions will also know that they can sell as many bonds as they want, and go on spending as usual, and go infinitely deep into debt.
And so, we have a new fantasy "Big Bazooka" plan from the ECB. Meanwhile, as we've been reporting, the world economy has been slowing. Irish Times and Washington Post and Bloomberg
Throughout 2006 and 2007, I frequently wrote commentaries mocking the investors who seemed to pop champagne corks every day and push the stock market to new bubble highs. Well, if you listened carefully on Thursday, you could hear lots of champagne corks popping again, as Wall Street Stocks seemed to be approaching the 2007 bubble levels again. According to my Dow Jones historical page, stock prices have remained at almost exactly 200% of their long-term trend value for almost two years now. Stocks have been way overpriced continuously since 1995, and by the Law of Mean Reversion, this bubble will burst, and a major panic will push stock prices below the Dow 3000 level. AP
Against the backdrop of the Mario Draghi's Big Bazooka unlimited bailout program announcement, a drama was occurring in Budapest, when Hungary's premier Viktor Orbán used his Facebook page to tell the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to buzz off. He said that he would seek an unspecified "alternative negotiating proposal," and reject the austerity measures that the IMF was demanding in return for a 15 billion euro bailout loan. The bailout loan has been repeatedly delayed, because Orbán has repeatedly refused to do as the IMF demanded. The value of Hungary's currency collapsed during the day, as news of the Facebook announcement spread, so this drama will go on for a while. For now, at a time when Greece is begging for a two-year postponement of its own austerity requirements, what it does show is how unrealistic Draghi's announcement was, even though he had no choice but to make it. Bloomberg and Politics Hungary
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At least 61 migrants trying to reach Greece and then Europe by being smuggled across the Aegean Sea from Turkey drowned on Thursday morning, when their boat struck rocks and capsized just 50 meters from the shore of Turkey. Many on the boat were able to swim to shore, but 18 women, 29 children and 2 babies drowned because they were locked below decks and could not escape. The survivors were interrogated with the help of Kurdish-speaking security personnel, and they were Iraqi, Palestinian and Syrian citizens, who had intended to enter Greece and then travel through Europe to the United Kingdom. As we reported yesterday, Greece has closed the land border between Turkey and Greece, with the result that there's been a huge surge of migrants attempting to reach Greece through the Aegean Sea. As many as 6,000 would-be immigrants are waiting their turn in Turkey to be smuggled into Greece. Hurriyet (Ankara) and National Turk
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Sep-12 World View -- Stocks go crazy as European Central Bank opens the money floodgates thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(7-Sep-2012)
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Six thousand would-be immigrants wait in Turkey to be smuggled into Greece
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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Televised bullfights were banned by Spain's Socialist government in 2005, but that government was ousted last November, and the prime minister Mariano Rajoy is a staunch defender of bullfights. So bullfights returned to Spain's state TV in a glittering display on Wednesday evening. Bullfighting is a major part of Spain's psyche and history, and the centuries-old events inspired the likes of Goya, Picasso and Hemingway. Televising bullfights is illegal in most of Portugal, the exception being Barrancos, near the Spanish border. The issue there has been the televising of bullfights where the bull is killed, but a special law authorizing airing bullfights to the death was passed in 2002. Animal rights activists say that bullfighting is cruel and vulgar, while bullfighting proponents point out that it's a popular tourist attraction. Newser and The Portugal News
A leaked letter from the "troika" of organizations bailing out Greece -- the European Commission (EC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) -- contains a list of demands that Greece must implement in return for further bailouts. The demands include the following:
Greece's prime minister Antonis Samaras is pleading with the Troika to give him two more years to implement austerity reforms, and the leaked letter reveals the detail of eurozone intrusion into Greece's economy and social culture that will be demanded in return for the delay, which would require a third bailout. However, many Greeks say that they will refuse to work six days per week. One policeman is quoted as saying:
"They have slashed our salary by 50 per cent and are threatening even more cuts - now they are demanding that we work even more days for less money? No one in their right mind will stand for it!"
Troika officials will be arriving in Athens on Friday to discuss the plan. Guardian (London) and Deutsche-Presse Agentur
The land border between Turkey and Greece has been effectively closed to illegal immigration, because of a massive crackdown by Greek border guards. Migrants try to get into Greece as a pathway to the rest of Europe, where they hope to find jobs. But with the land border closed, the last two weeks have seen a surge of migrants from the Turkish coast entering Greece via the islands of the Aegean Sea. As many as 6,000 would-be immigrants are currently gathered in neighboring Turkey, waiting their turn to board smuggling ships to bring them to Greece. Kathimerini
With all the economic and geopolitical problems in the world, I can't believe that as I'm writing this I'm listening to a speech televised on all networks by a young female whining that some women have to pay for their own contraceptives. To paraphrase Clarence Thomas in 1991, this is a national disgrace.
Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately adjourned a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, because there had been leaks from the previous day's meeting. According to the leaked story, the members of the security cabinet were shocked to hear that the country's different intelligence agencies – the Mossad, Shin Bet, and Army Intelligence – do not agree about the time frame for a potential Iranian attack. I've been reading for almost ten years that an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities was imminent, but it's never happened. I continue to expect that it won't happen at all, and the confusion within Israel is an example of why I don't expect it to happen. We'll see. Jerusalem Post
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Sep-12 World View -- Eurozone demands that Greeks should work six days a week thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(6-Sep-2012)
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Turkey's government flails over issues of Syrian refugees and PKK attacks
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After almost 18 months of Syrian conflict, Turkey's government appears to be increasingly split over its policy towards the conflict. For many months, the policy of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appeared to be widely accepted: He sounded increasingly hawkish in threatening potential military action within Syria, with the possibility of establishing protected "buffer zones" on Syrian soil, but without ever translating his hawkish words into any action. But over the summer, many people have turned against him, because of two major problems:
Leaders of Erdogan's main opposition party have announced that they're going to submit a censure motion against Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu for putting the nation's security at risk for allegedly supplying weapons to the rebel Free Syrian Army:
"This is the first time that Turkey has ever been accused of supplying arms [to the opposition] of a neighboring country, and of training them in its territory. Turkey’s foreign policy is turning into a disgrace."
Turkish Weekly and Guardian and Hurriyet (Ankara)
The global economic slowdown that began late last year continues to accelerate. In very bad economic news, manufacturing in the U.S. shrank for the third month in a row. According to one analyst, "Manufacturing has been one of the stalwarts of an otherwise lackluster recovery but it’s starting to show some cracks. Until we get more clarity on the fiscal policy outlook here, more clarity on Europe and some signs on the course of China’s economy, manufacturing is just going to languish." Bloomberg
I've been pointing out endlessly for years that mainstream economists have been wrong about everything for almost 20 years. To this day, mainstream economists have never explained the tech bubble of the late 1990s, why it occurred at all, and why it occurred at that time, instead of ten years earlier or later. They have absolutely no clue, when the obvious explanation is generational -- the 1990s was exactly the time when the risk-averse survivors of the 1930s Great Depression all disappeared (retired or died) all at once, leaving behind risk-ignorant Boomers to run things.
Now mainstream economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) are trying to find an explanation why this "recession" is so much worse than any of the preceding postwar recessions. A historical study shows a correlation between financial crises and private sector credit, much stronger than the correlations with money supply growth, current account deficit, or increase in public debt.
This is one of these "Duhhhh" moments. As I've been saying for years, the survivors of a major financial crisis like the Great Depression spend their lives being extremely risk averse, avoiding debt as much as possible. When these survivors disappear, they're replaced by younger generations with no personal memory of the last financial crisis, so they go into debt again, creating a new financial bubble, and when the bubble bursts there's a financial crisis, so the cycle starts all over again.
This is obvious, elementary stuff, but mainstream economists seem to have some switch turned off in their brains that makes it impossible for them to see even the most obvious generational explanations.
At any rate, the conclusion of this research is that the current "recession" will go on for many years. The Generational Dynamics prediction is much gloomier: At some point, there will be a major worldwide panic, comparable to but worse than the panic that occurred in October 1929, leading to the worst financial crisis in history. The Economist and National Bureau of Economic Research
Manufacturing is also contracting in China, in some sectors to the lowest levels since March, 2009. Before this year, China "printed" huge amounts of money and poured it into the banking system, in order to stimulate the economy. However, the money was used by banks to fund empty ghost towns and apartment buildings, creating a huge real estate bubble that is now bursting. This year, China cut back on the fiscal stimulus, in an attempt to prevent the real estate bubble from worsening, but with the economy deteriorating, that government policy may have to be reversed again. China's economy is very unstable, more so than America's. There are tens or hundreds of thousands of "mass incidents" every year of large public protests against the government and Chinese Communist Party officials, and China has a long history of huge, bloody, genocidal civil wars. The most recent one was Mao Zedong's Communist Revolution, and China is now due for its next massive civil war. Bloomberg
Completing the picture of the economy slowing down all around the world, new figures show that German exporters had their biggest drop in international orders in over three years in August. "Survey respondents commented on a general slowdown in global demand and particular weakness in new business inflows from Southern Europe," according to an analyst. At the same time, figures from the U.K. and Italy also show economic slowdowns. Spiegel
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Sep-12 World View -- Economic deterioration continues in America, Europe and China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(5-Sep-2012)
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Hillary Clinton criticizes China's South China Sea military coercion and intimidation
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U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned against "coercive or intimidating" behavior in the South China Sea, evidently referring to China's military buildup and it's creation of "Sansha City" in the Paracel Islands. Speaking in Jakarta, Indonesia, she said:
"The United States believes very strongly that no party should take any steps that would increase tensions or do anything that would be viewed as coercive or intimidating to advance their territorial claims. ...The United States does not take a position on competing territorial claims over land features, but we believe the nations of the region should work collaboratively together to resolve disputes without coercion, without intimidation, without threats and certainly without the use of force."
One big difference between China and the U.S. is the reaction to criticism. The U.S. gets criticized constantly, so we're used to it. But China really freaks out when it's criticized.
China's position is that the U.S. should butt out of the South China Sea disputes, and allow them to bilaterally threaten each of the countries challenging their claim to the entire South China Sea, including regions that have historically belonged to other countries. China calls the U.S. "troublemakers," because we've been urging the nations around the South China Sea to stand up to China as a group, through the ASEAN organization.
China's response is to criticize America's military "pivot" to Asia, and to demand an explanation:
"The world's attention will focus on how the two U.S. officials will explain to the Chinese side the true intentions of the Obama administration's Pivot to Asia policy, especially its new defense strategy.Since last fall, the Obama administration has been implementing the Pivot policy by expanding and intensifying its political, diplomatic and military involvement in the Asia-Pacific region. The fundamental goal underpinning this shift is to maintain the U.S. dominance in the resources-rich and fastest-growing region, amid heightened concerns about China's rise.
As major part of its Pivot policy, Washington has quickened the pace of increasing its military presence and engagement in the Asia Pacific, including deploying troops in Australia, boosting military cooperation with Japan, and purposely strengthening military ties with some Asian countries, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam, both involved in territorial disputes with China.
The U.S. strategic shift has raised more questions than answers: Is the U.S. Pivot policy really intended to bolster peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region? Can the U.S. really play a fair role over the territorial disputes in the region? Does the U.S. mean it when it pledges not to seek to contain China?
Many of the U.S. actions so far have been counterproductive to promoting peace and stability in the Asia Pacific, as indicated by the fact that the security situation in the region has been worsening, rather than improving, mainly due to the recent escalation of the territorial disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.
Washington, which claims not to take sides in the disputes, is partly blamed for fueling the tensions because it has apparently emboldened certain relevant parties to make provocations against China in order to achieve undeserved territorial gains. ,,,
However, Washington owes Beijing a thorough, convincing explanation of the true intentions of its Pivot policy, especially on issues related to China's vital or core interests. And the United States also needs to take concrete steps to prove that it is returning to Asia as a peacemaker, instead of a troublemaker."
The words "core interest" are a code phrase from the Chinese, meaning something for which there is no compromise, under any circumstances. China is using coercion and intimidation to gain control of regions in the South and East China Seas, as well as in central Asia, and all of these are "core interests."
This is the typical kind of ping-ponging that goes on prior to a war, as each belligerent statement or action from one side brings a more belligerent statement or action from the other side. Clinton will be visiting Beijing on Tuesday, so there may be more to come. AFP and Xinhua
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Azerbaijan's Lieutenant Ramil Safarov used an axe to hack to death Armenian officer Gurgen Margarian, when the two of them were attending a Nato conference in 2004 in Budapest. Safarov was convicted of murder and given a life sentence in a Hungarian court. Azerbaijan obtained the extradition of Safarov back to his home country, based on the promise that he would serve out his life sentence there. As soon as he came back, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev immediately double-crossed Hungary and not only pardoned Safarov, but promoted him to major, and gave him a house and eight years of back pay. Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian issued a statement on Sunday:
"We don't want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win. We are not afraid of killers, even if they enjoy the protection of the head of state. ...They have been warned. [Azerbaijan is a country where] illicit orders set free and publicly glorify every bastard who kills people only because they are Armenians."
Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a very bloody war that ended in 1994 with Armenia gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region in the middle of Azerbaijan. Since then, hostilities have been simmering between the two countries. AFP
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Sep-12 World View -- Armenia says it's 'ready for war' with Azerbaijan 'bastards' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
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(4-Sep-2012)
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Syria's neighbors overwhelmed by 1.2 million Syrian refugees
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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On August 16, Rimsha Masih, a mentally retarded 14 year old Christian girl in a suburb of Islamabad, Pakistan, was arrested for blasphemy, accused of burning papers containing verses from the Quran. The case drew worldwide outrage, as governments and human rights groups demanded that she be released. Even Muslim groups demanded leniency. Suddenly the case has taken a new bizarre twist, as Imam Khalid Jadoon, the Muslim cleric who had originally accused Rimsha of blasphemy, has himself been accused of manufacturing evidence. Jadoon was arrested on Saturday, after his deputy and two of his assistants in his mosque came forward and said that Jadoon had added the burned Quran pages to the garbage that the girl had been carrying. The three said they had tried to talk Jadoon out of doing this, but he said, "You know this is the only way to expel the Christians from this area." It's hoped that Rimsha will be freed from prison on Monday. Dawn (Karachi)
The application of blasphemy laws in Pakistan is extremely irrational, as I described in "26-Apr-12 World View -- New report examines terrorism and religious extremism in Pakistan", based on a detailed report by Pakistan's Jinnah Institute. While the blasphemy laws sometimes target Christians, as in the case of Rimsha, they're used by Muslims to target other Muslims in well over 90% of the cases, usually by Sunni Muslims targeting Shia Muslims or Sufis or Ahmadis. Thousands of Pakistanis have been jailed, tortured or killed by means of the blasphemy laws. But what's really remarkable is ordinary Pakistanis accept this, and they refuse to speak out against it.
This is exactly the kind of behavior that I've been describing in Generation-Xers in America, where thousands of Gen-X financial engineers created the financial crisis with the purpose of defrauding hated Boomers, without being investigated or sent to jail, because Gen-Xers refuse to blame other Gen-Xers for anything, even serious crimes. It's this refusal to blame other Gen-Xers for crimes that characterizes this generation today versus the Boomers, and it's exactly the same kind of behavior we're seeing in the Pakistani population today.
As I explained in "The Legacy of World War I and the Holocaust", this is also the same behavior that led to the 1930s Holocaust. Germany's Lost Generation (the generational predecessor of today's Generation-X) hated the previous Missionary Generation just as much as today's Gen-Xers hate the previous Boomer Generation.
These situations occur in all times and places throughout history, and result in history's greatest catastrophes. In each case, the generational conflict morphs into a political conflict, as people in every generation are forced to choose sides in the generational debate. In 1930s Germany, it was the Christians blaming the Jews for German humiliation in World War I. In America today, it's the Democrats blaming the Republicans for the Nasdaq crash in 2000. In Pakistan, it's the Sunnis blaming the Shias. The result is always the same: catastrophe.
The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa [MUJAO], a terrorist group associated with Ansar Dine, the al-Qaeda linked jihadist group that's taken control of much of Mali, claims to have executed a kidnapped Algerian diplomat. Seven Algerian diplomats were kidnapped from a consulate in Gao on April 5 during the takeover of northern Mali. Three of the hostages were freed in July, and MUJAO has threatened to kill the others unless jihadist prisoners are released. Algeria said that the death hasn't been confirmed.
Ansar Dine, and now MUJAO, have been taking control of increasingly large regions of Mali, and it's feared that the capital Bamako will eventually be threatened. France and Algeria would both like a military force to intervene, since both are vulnerable to terrorist attacks from Ansar Dine, but the United Nations has refused to go farther than issuing the usual condemnation of violence. The death of an Algerian diplomat, if confirmed, would raise the pressure for military intervention. Al-Jazeera
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In a new sign that Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has reduced security in Damascus, two terrorist bombs exploded on Sunday in a supposedly secure area near the compound housing the army and air force headquarters in central Damascus. The Ahfad al-Rasul (Grandchildren of the Prophet) battalion of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) claimed responsibility for the attack, saying that they had help from elements of the Syrian Army guarding the compound. The FSA are the Sunni rebels who are fighting the Syrian army and demanding al-Assad's ouster. This is another significant humiliation to al-Assad, though not as bad as the July 18 bombing that killed much of his inner circle. ( "22-Jul-12 World View -- Damascus bombing marks a significant change in Syria") Al-Assad has been rarely seen in public since July 18, presumably because he no longer knows whom he can trust. Daily Star (Beirut) and Al-Jazeera
Over 1.2 million refugees from Syria have been flooding into Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq, and the flood is only increasing, straining the resources of these neighboring countries. Jordan said it does not have the means to handle the 70,000-160,000 refugees that it has so far, and it's requesting international aid of $700 million from the United Nations refugees' agency. Khaleej Times (Dubai)
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Sep-12 World View -- Pakistan girl to be freed after bizarre twist in blasphemy case thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(3-Sep-2012)
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The Haqqani Network and the Pashtuns
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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The Obama administration is deeply divided over whether to designate the Pakistan-based Haqqani network as a terrorist group. A report on the administration's decision is due to Congress by September 9, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated that the deadline will be met, one way or the other. The Haqqani Network is a Taliban offshoot that is leading the fight against the government of Afghanistan and the Nato forces in Afghanistan. A number of US military commanders have indicated that the Haqqani Network is the most dangerous and most organized terrorist organization in the Taliban.
The designation of the Haqqani Network as a terrorist organization should be an easy call, but there are broader issues. American officials in the past have accused Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency of having ties to the Haqqani Network, and even of supplying arms and money to it. The Pakistanis deny this, saying that ISI links were cut long ago. And so a designation of the Haqqani Network as a terrorist organization might once again cause a major rift in relations with Pakistan, at a time just after last year's rift was healed and the supply route through Pakistan was reopened, as we reported in July. Pakistan Observer
Part of the debate is over whether the terror designation will actually accomplish anything. A recent report calls the Haqqani network “an efficient, trans-national jihadi industry” that has “penetrated key business sectors, including import-export, transport, real estate and construction in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Arab Gulf and beyond." Proponents of the designation claim that these business interests will be undermined, but others in the White House point out that several Haqqani leaders have already been designated individually as terrorists, and that hasn't affected their business interests. Washington Post
The Haqqani Network is the culmination of how I've been describing for years the Afghanistan war in terms of Generational Dynamics theory.
President Obama initiated the "surge" into Afghanistan in 2009 with the intent of duplicating the success of President Bush's "surge" strategy into Iraq in 2007. However, as I've written several times in the past, the generational situation in Afghanistan is very different than in Iraq, and there are significant differences that will prevent the surge strategy from working there.
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Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, meaning that Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, not very interested in war. This was an external war, fought with Iran, that brought the Iraqi people together against a common foe. When al-Qaeda in Iraq started operating, they were thrown out by people on both sides of the Sunni/Shia sectarian divide, since the two sides were still united. Thus, America's 2007 "surge" was very effective in helping them eject al-Qaeda in Iraq. From 2007: "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq"
Afghanistan's last generational crisis war was the bloody civil war of the 1990s, climaxing in 1996. So Afghanistan is at the end of a generational Recovery era, and is just entering a generational Awakening era, and from that point of view, the country is similar to Iraq. But the huge difference is that Afghanistan's crisis war was a civil war.
During the extremely bloody ethnic civil war that the Afghans fought in the 1990s, the Shia Muslim Hazaris and the Sunni Muslim Pashtuns were on opposite sides, and the ethnic groups were torturing and killing each other within Afghanistan. The Hazari and the Pashtuns are going to continue to see each other as the enemy, and they can never come together and see the Haqqani network as a common enemy, in the way that the Iraqis saw al-Qaeda in Iraq as a common enemy.
Even despite all that, things might settle down in Afghanistan, if it weren't for one more major problem. The Taliban are Pashtuns. The Haqqani Network are Pashtuns. The Pashtuns live in a broad area that spans Afghanistan, Pakistan's tribal area, and Pakistan's northwest, as you can see from the map above, where the Pashtuns are shown in green.
The additional major problem is that the Pashtuns in Pakistan are on a different generational timeline than the Pashtuns in Afghanistan. Pakistan's last crisis war was Partition, the 1947 partitioning of the Indian subcontinent into Pakistan and India. So the Pakistani Pashtuns are deep into a generational crisis era, and the Haqqani Network are Pakistani Pashtuns, able to move freely across the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
So we have a situation where Afghanistan is entering a generational Awakening era, and has little desire for a bloody war. Indeed, Afghan president Hamid Karzai is a Pashtun who has close relations with the Hazaris. But the Pakistani-based Haqqani Network wants a war, and believe that a Pashtun victory will give them control of the entire region.
I keep reading nonsense that various American officials are hoping that the Taliban will agree to a negotiated truce with Nato. This is so absurd that it's laughable. Yes, the Afghan Taliban might agree to that, but there is no way in hell that the Haqqani Network or the Pakistani Taliban in general are going to have anything to do with a peace agreement with the infidels.
Finally, it's worth pointing out again, as I have in the past, that historically, Hindus have been allied with Shia Muslims in wars against Sunni Muslims, and this is the current trend in the region. In the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, it's expected that Pakistan will be allied with the Taliban (Pashtuns) in southern Afghanistan, and India will be allied with Iran and with the Hazaris and other Shia Muslims in northern Afghanistan.
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Sep-12 World View -- U.S. decision on Haqqani Network will affect Pakistan relations thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(2-Sep-2012)
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Money continues to flood out of Spain
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
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After a big jump in food prices in June, food prices soared by an additional 10% in July, with maize and soybean reaching all-time peaks due to an unprecedented summer of droughts and high temperatures in both the United States and Eastern Europe, From June to July, maize and wheat rose by 25 percent each, soybeans by 17 percent, and only rice went down, by 4 percent. Overall, world food prices rose 6% since July of last year.
Food price increases were not uniform around the world. Black Africa (Sub-Saharan Africa), in particular, experienced the highest price increases in maize, including 113 percent in some markets in Mozambique. Meanwhile, the Sahel and eastern Africa regions experienced steep price increases of sorghum: 220 percent in South Sudan, and 180 percent in Sudan, for instance. World Bank
Last week, China condemned Mitt Romney's 'Cold War mentality.' Now it's Russia, criticizing this sentence in Romney's speech: "Under my administration our friends will see more loyalty and Mr. Putin will see a little less flexibility and more backbone." Romney's statement reflects the increased nationalism among the people of the United States, just as nationalism is also increasing in China, Russia and other countries in a generational Crisis era. The spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin responded as follows:
"During official meetings, both Moscow and Washington have on different levels expressed their understanding that it is inadmissible for the bilateral ties to fall victim to pre-election debates.As the Russian president has said many times, Russia is interested and will continue to be interested in developing U.S.-Russian relations."
Russia's response was far less harsh than China's. This reflects the differences in relationships between the three parties. To state it as starkly as possible for clarity, the Russians and the Chinese hate each other, the Americans and the Chinese hate each other, but Americans and Russians LIKE each other. Please excuse this exaggeration, but this statement reflects the reason why Russia and America will be allies in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. Ria Novosti (Moscow)
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Spain's bond yields (interest rates) had fallen from a panic-level 7.5% down close to 6%, as a result of statements by the ECB recently that gave investors hope that the ECB would flood the markets with "printed money" liquidity again. Nonetheless, money is pouring out of Spain as people transfer their money to foreign banks and safer havens, including U.S. Treasuries, and so bond yields are rising again, reaching 6.89% on Friday. Anything above 6% is considered unsustainable, and anything above 7% is considered full scale panic. And "panic" may be the right word, as net capital outflows reached 56.6 billion euros in June, and 219.8 euros in the first half of the year.
Of Spain's 17 autonomous regions, three of them -- Catalonia, Valencia and Murcia -- this week requested bailout money to keep them from going bankrupt. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy had set aside 18 billion euros as bailout funds for all 17 regions, but these three need more than half of the fund, indicating that the fund is too small.
If you listen to CNBC these days, you'll notice that all they talk about is quantitative easing or other forms of injecting "printed money" liquidity into the banking system. It used to be that they would talk about this money going to stimulate economic growth, but there's been a change in tone, and they don't talk about economic growth any more, except to say that it's a few years off. There's no longer any pretense. They want more liquidity injection because that money will flow into the stock market, and their bankster friends will continue to justify their 7-digit salaries and bonuses. I don't even hear much about hyperinflation any more, as more analysts are resigned to the deflationary spiral that Generational Dynamics predicted almost ten years ago. Bloomberg and WSJ
(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Sep-12 World View -- Putin’s spokesman criticizes Romney for toughness on Russia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be
posted anonymously.)
(1-Sep-2012)
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